UK House prices: News & Views

[TestIcicle]

People don't prefer rational things here in the UK. Just take the metric system.

 

Don't completely agree with this. My generation (born late 1970s onwards) were schooled in metric and use it as standard. Of course we can adapt to miles, feet and inches when necessary, but it really is only a legacy requirement.

 

On the other hand, of course, you might be right. Just wonder how long it'll be before the road signs and speedometers, etc., are rated in kilometres. There'd be an outrage in the tabloids! And the tabloids are the shepherd of the people... OK, perhaps you win after all. We're proud Britons wot won the Second World War, who needs reason?

[Schaublin]

People don't prefer rational things here in the UK. Just take the metric system.

 

The metric system is not rational - it was dreamed up by French intellectuals who had no grounding in the real world. The imperial system gradually evolved over time to best suit the purposes of ordinary people. The metric system is an IMPOSED SYSTEM in much the same way as fiat is imposed money.

 

Edit: My two nieces without any prompting, started to use inches in dressmaking and ounces in cooking when they came to the UK at about 14 years old. I was curious about this and they said that seeing the dual measures on scales and tape measures, they found the imperial units more 'natural' to use.

[aliveandkicking]

The metric system is not rational - it was dreamed up by French intellectuals who had no grounding in the real world. The imperial system gradually evolved over time to best suit the purposes of ordinary people. The metric system is an IMPOSED SYSTEM in much the same way as fiat is imposed money.

 

I thought Finland was metric. But my house is full of UK inch thread sizes on the heating pipes. When i go to any merchant i can buy either Inch UK or metric parts. As often as not it is inch sizes on the taps and so forth.

 

Of course the advantage of imposing metric is consumers have to progressively replace pipes for which it becomes uneconomical to get parts. But it seems the war is not yet over!

 

On the other hand if you want to get a three quarter inch tap washer in finland most plumbers look at you as if you are from mars and start passing the parts around while people stare in amazement at something so primitive and say you must fit a new tap like they do. Fortunately the local Bauhaus has a good selection of inch washers

[TestIcicle]

The metric system is not rational - it was dreamed up by French intellectuals who had no grounding in the real world. The imperial system gradually evolved over time to best suit the purposes of ordinary people. The metric system is an IMPOSED SYSTEM in much the same way as fiat is imposed money.

 

The imperial system is more poetic, I'll give it that. But I think the argument is that metric is based on reason.

 

...and it does seem that many folk in this country have a passionate distaste for rational discourse, ESPECIALLY regarding home ownership, which of course plays beautifully to the tune of the purveyors of property pornography, estate agents, The Times and The Express and so on, who all wish/believe property shall increase forever and ever amen.

[alexreeve]

Yes, rational thought is hard to find in the UK, for example, why on Nov 5th do we celebrate the failure of someone to blow up politicians.

Perhaps because Samhain (Halloween) celebrations were being heavily repressed by the church at the time.

Samhain marked the end of the harvest, the end of the "lighter half" of the year and beginning of the "darker half". It was traditionally celebrated over the course of several days... Bonfires played a large part in the festivities. People and their livestock would often walk between two bonfires as a cleansing ritual, and the bones of slaughtered livestock were cast into its flames.

Call it Guy Fawk's night and avoid trial for witchcraft.

Sometimes people have to go through a little pantomime to carry on living their lives. I remeber when beef on the bone was banned in the UK, I used to go into the butchers and order a couple of T-bone steaks and he'd say "Are they for your dog?" I'd say yes and go home and eat them. Everyone's happy.

 

I realise it wasn't really a literal question, but maybe it's a good illustration that you can often pay lip service to the authority's new rules while carrying on as before. I particularly liked the recent story about the landlady who is "conducting research" in her pub to sidestep the smoking ban.

 

[Schaublin]

The imperial system is more poetic, I'll give it that. But I think the argument is that metric is based on reason.

 

...and it does seem that many folk in this country have a passionate distaste for rational discourse, ESPECIALLY regarding home ownership, which of course plays beautifully to the tune of the purveyors of property pornography, estate agents, The Times and The Express and so on, who all wish/believe property shall increase forever and ever amen.

 

 

Nothing to do with being poetic - just more practical. Any system that has evolved through many hundreds of years will be better than one thought up by a committee. I will admit that for science, the metric system has advantages but for everyday usage, you cannot beat that which has evolved.

 

As an example of this, think of a cart wheel - from 1900 - this represents the collective wisdom and experience of hundreds of generations of wheel builders - compare this wheel with a wheel that would be designed by a committee with no prior knowledge of wheel building but good technical design abilities. The 1900 wheel would be infinitely superior - because of thousands of years of trial and error.

[G0ldfinger]

 

Yes, rational thought is hard to find in the UK, for example, why on Nov 5th do we celebrate the failure of someone to blow up politicians.

I have to ask about this story every year.

[TestIcicle]

Nothing to do with being poetic - just more practical.

 

I'd say practical and poetic. You can't say that a measurement named after a bodily part it roughly matches (and deliberately so) isn't poetic. I'm thinking those L-shaped doodahs at the end of your legs...

 

The lower end.

[G0ldfinger]

Nothing to do with being poetic - just more practical. Any system that has evolved through many hundreds of years will be better than one thought up by a committee. I will admit that for science, the metric system has advantages but for everyday usage, you cannot beat that which has evolved.

 

As an example of this, think of a cart wheel - from 1900 - this represents the collective wisdom and experience of hundreds of generations of wheel builders - compare this wheel with a wheel that would be designed by a committee with no prior knowledge of wheel building but good technical design abilities. The 1900 wheel would be infinitely superior - because of thousands of years of trial and error.

Schaublin, I think your argument about an imposed system is interesting, and as a friend of organic growth, competing currencies, and gold as money, I see the point. However, I would argue that also the imperial system didn't develop in an entirely free way. Given that, wild growth with smaller restrictions can sometimes become very wild, or inefficient. I do believe that the metric system is superior.

 

As an example, take a "cup". Yes, I know what a cup is, and it seems somewhat natural. But if I take just any cup in my kitchen, I might be double over the amount, or half short of it - it simply doesn't work, I will need a measure anyway. Then, why not metric, where everything is so easy to compare?

 

Another good example for its superiority is the relationship of volume and weight in the metric system, with one liter (=[0.1m]^3=1000cm^3) of water (or milk) weighing 1kg=1000g.

[wren]

I thought Finland was metric. But my house is full of UK inch thread sizes on the heating pipes. When i go to any merchant i can buy either Inch UK or metric parts. As often as not it is inch sizes on the taps and so forth.

TVs and bicycles are still in inches. Not areas I'm familiar with, but apparently boat lengths are in feet and wood is quoted in inches or was until recently (2 by 4 for example).

 

At least flat and house sizes are always given in square metres which makes comparison quick and easy and in one's mind one can imagine the size quickly whatever the number of rooms.

 

They should definitely introduce area as standard when quoting residences in the the UK and why not use square metres? That would make comparison with continental Europe easy too.

[wren]

Nothing to do with being poetic - just more practical. Any system that has evolved through many hundreds of years will be better than one thought up by a committee. I will admit that for science, the metric system has advantages but for everyday usage, you cannot beat that which has evolved.

 

As an example of this, think of a cart wheel - from 1900 - this represents the collective wisdom and experience of hundreds of generations of wheel builders - compare this wheel with a wheel that would be designed by a committee with no prior knowledge of wheel building but good technical design abilities. The 1900 wheel would be infinitely superior - because of thousands of years of trial and error.

Although the neurones of the light-receptors in the retina of the eye are wired the wrong way round. An interesting case of maldesign but the result of an evolutionary process.

 

[DoctorSolar]

House prices make a strong start to 2010

 

 

 

A few questions for y'all:

 

Do folks still see a UK house price crash eclipsing that of the 1990s?

 

Does Dr B still see UK house prices hitting an average of 100k? (i.e. a near 40%!! drop from here.)

 

Or will QE and extended low rates put a bottom in nominal house prices. Please note nominal. Does sterling have to crash for this to happen?

 

Interesting discussion chaps but does anyone have any more input for the questions I posed originally?

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

Schaublin, I think your argument about an imposed system is interesting, and as a friend of organic growth, competing currencies, and gold as money, I see the point. However, I would argue that also the imperial system didn't develop in an entirely free way. Given that, wild growth with smaller restrictions can sometimes become very wild, or inefficient. I do believe that the metric system is superior.

...

 

in a free market in measurement, there would be no legal metrology.

 

...

Another good example for its superiority is the relationship of volume and weight in the metric system, with one liter (=[0.1m]^3=1000cm^3) of water (or milk) weighing 1kg=1000g.

 

you've never heard of fluid ounces then?

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

House prices make a strong start to 2010

Do folks still see a UK house price crash eclipsing that of the 1990s?

 

well the state didn't explode in a hyper-inflationary supernova in 1990, so yes this crash will be significantly worse (in real terms).

 

[aliveandkicking]

Nothing to do with being poetic - just more practical. Any system that has evolved through many hundreds of years will be better than one thought up by a committee. I will admit that for science, the metric system has advantages but for everyday usage, you cannot beat that which has evolved.

 

As an example of this, think of a cart wheel - from 1900 - this represents the collective wisdom and experience of hundreds of generations of wheel builders - compare this wheel with a wheel that would be designed by a committee with no prior knowledge of wheel building but good technical design abilities. The 1900 wheel would be infinitely superior - because of thousands of years of trial and error.

 

This seems to be a common logical trap. Ie C is derived from knowledge of A and B. Whereas C could be a totally new way of doing things that has little to do with A or B

 

Design can be better if all previous ideas are released when exploring the best solution but this is not the habit of the logical mind. The logical mind attaches great importance to what it already knows and understands. Knowledge is then associated with intelligence and wisdom and superiority. The creative mind simply leaps into the unknown with ignorance and chances upon a new and unconsidered new idea. The wisdom here is that ignorance can be valueable because the mind is open

 

Similarly evolution is not A to B to C in a linear fashion always. Instead by chance one creature is simply superior

 

[G0ldfinger]

in a free market in measurement, there would be no legal metrology.

 

 

 

you've never heard of fluid ounces then?

Yes. But then there are cups and pints and quarts and gallons and barrels. In the metric system there is just the meter - everything else follows naturally, at least from a mathematical perspective.

[wren]

Yes. But then there are cups and pints and quarts and gallons and barrels. In the metric system there is just the meter - everything else follows naturally, at least from a mathematical perspective.

What the ell.

 

[id5]

Yes. But then there are cups and pints and quarts and gallons and barrels. In the metric system there is just the meter - everything else follows naturally, at least from a mathematical perspective.

What the ell.

It gets worse than that wren. When I started my surveyor training we still had to deal with furlongs, chains, links, rods, poles, perches, roods, acres, hides, fathoms, shackles and cables. If you did not understand fractional math you were well and truly f^&ked. The math surrounding length, area and depth are so much easier with the metric system.

 

[id5]

Perhaps because Samhain (Halloween) celebrations were being heavily repressed by the church at the time.

...

Understand where you are coming from Iggle but you are 6 days out and the repression of the pagan festivals of the beginning of winter occurred in the Roman times across the whole of the Empire of Rome as Christianity took over, the festival was replaced with a Christian festival sometime before the 4th century. Rome was very good at hearts and minds and rather than forcing change they took the longer term view of adopting the festivals and changing the practices, something the US and UK need to relearn in their various conflicts.

 

Bonfire night didn’t start until 1606 and wasn’t a religious festival, pagan or otherwise but was a festival by Parliamentary Act that went on until the mid 1800’s. I wonder if the common people in 1606 celebrated it with joy or sorrow?

 

[Wanderer]

Oh, look, a discussion about house prices in the UK.....

[id5]

Oh, look, a discussion about house prices in the UK.....

 

Okay back to house prices. I was just going through the local area using Rightmove with Property Bee and noticed that asking price on rentals are falling as well. Been a while since I have seen that happen in their area?

 

As an anecdote, in the last 5-6 years we have been renting we have never had the rent put up.

 

[GenghisKhan]

House prices make a strong start to 2010

 

 

 

A few questions for y'all:

 

Do folks still see a UK house price crash eclipsing that of the 1990s?

 

Does Dr B still see UK house prices hitting an average of 100k? (i.e. a near 40%!! drop from here.)

 

Or will QE and extended low rates put a bottom in nominal house prices. Please note nominal. Does sterling have to crash for this to happen?

 

House prices are currently increasing in nominal and to a lesser extent in Real inflation adjusted terms. However in my opinion I think that these increases will be short lived. Salaries are increasing at a rate which is less than both inflation and house prices meaning a pay cut in real terms. Average bank mortgage rates are starting to increase from their lows in June 2009 which will reduce the level of principle that can be borrowed idc. The Bank of England and government are powerless to do anything about it this time (dropping rates further, even negative, QE) without risking the country as a whole (bond strike, hyperinflation etc).

 

If house prices were return to a level where the house price to earnings matched that of 1996 house prices would be £84,670.

 

The fear I have now is that the Bank of England holds interest rates allowing inflation to rise quickly (I think they will) resulting in nominal house price increases but stagnation in Real inflation adjusted house prices. This will be dependent on whether salaries start to increase in line with inflation. The private sector doesn’t seem in a position to do this however while government borrowing is at record highs I fear the government will listen to the Unions requests for big increases as they have an election win to try and buy.

 

I'm staying out of the market for now however as usual DYOR.

 

Full detailed analysis and a few charts here http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.c...010-update.html

[Hogwild]

There a still some interesting sellers ( Grainger and Halifax in particular) in the auctions. Here is the latest from Allsop:

""The sale will be held over two days on Wednesday 17th and Monday 22nd February. As usual, the venue will be The Cumberland Hotel, Great Cumberland Place. Marble Arch London W1.

 

Clients represented at this important sale include Anglian Water Group, Aviva Investors, AXA Sun Life plc, Department of Health Estates, Grainger plc, Halifax plc, Hyde Housing Association Ltd, L & Q, BRB (Residuary) Ltd in association with Lambert Smith Hampton, Metropolitan Housing Trust, Mountview Estates plc, Network Rail, Riverside, The London Borough of Southwark, The London Borough of Lambeth, Sovereign Housing Group, Springboard Housing Association.""

 

Grainger was a bit close to the edge at one point. Interesting that they are still deleveraging. If they saw a rebound of any size in the future they would surely have been hanging on. Let the buyer beware. Anyone tempted to buy should take heed from some of the comments above regarding rents having been stationary for 5 years. There are landlords that need you more than you need them.

[Concrete Jungle]

House prices fall in Feb - Nationwide

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices showed a surprise 1.0 percent fall in February, ending a run of nine consecutive monthly increases, figures from the Nationwide Building Society showed on Friday.

 

Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.4 percent for the month and Nationwide said it was too early to say if the figures were the start of a new trend or a temporary blip.

 

The end of a stamp duty holiday on property sales and snowy weather were cited as possible factors behind the price decline.

 

"In light of low growth in household incomes and elevated levels of unemployment, house prices were beginning to move ahead of the recovery in general economic conditions," said Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist.

 

"With the longer term stability of the market in mind, it would be a positive development for house prices not to become decoupled from the economic fundamentals," he added.

 

"A pause in the upward trend will also be a relief to potential first-time buyers who are no longer benefiting from the stamp duty holiday and for whom affordability had begun to deteriorate again over the course of 2009."

 

The annual rate of inflation increased to 9.2 percent from 8.6 percent because the price decline in February was smaller than the 1.5 percent fall 12 months ago.

 

The British economy crawled out of recession in the last quarter of 2009, according to provisional data. A second estimate of the quarterly GDP figures is due at 9:30 a.m. on Friday.

 

The country's housing market had recovered quite swiftly from sharp falls seen in 2008 and early 2009, helped by record low official interest rates and a shortage of properties coming on to the market.

 

The government had also removed stamp duty tax on properties sold for up to 175,000 pounds. From the start of the year, the threshold for the sales tax has been restored to 125,000 pounds.

 

Nationwide said the average price of a property sold in February was 161,320 pounds.

 

Naturally this was totally unexpected and merely down to the stamp duty holiday being scrapped and bad weather. Nothing what so ever to do with the fact UK property remains vastly over valued no matter how you look at it.

[drbubb]

House prices fall in Feb - Nationwide

"LONDON (Reuters) - House prices showed a surprise 1.0 percent fall in February, ending a run of nine consecutive monthly increases, figures from the Nationwide Building Society showed on Friday."

 

Naturally this was totally unexpected and merely down to the stamp duty holiday being scrapped and bad weather. Nothing what so ever to do with the fact UK property remains vastly over valued no matter how you look at it.

A surprise? ... Only to those who were not paying attention.

Watch the Builder shares is a great way to stay ahead of the inexperienced "teenage scribblers" who write the news reports