UK House prices: News & Views

[Kapouillax]

A surprise? ... Only to those who were not paying attention.

Watch the Builder shares is a great way to stay ahead of the inexperienced "teenage scribblers" who write the news reports

 

Is the current trend on those share still downwards?

(sorry to be asking, I'm very new to those kind of things, I don't even know where to find this data, let alone read it!)

[dietcolaaddict]

Sorry for the double post - mods please remove if you want. From a posting I made on the monthly gold thread but perhaps more relevant and preservable in this thread......

 

 

I have used online datasets to calculate UK houseprices in gold and added an RSI and MACD calculator. So G0ldfinger’s style of charts are now augmented by some technical indicators.

 

This is the first time I have done this analysis, so while it looks good by eyeball, I need to verify the values when I get a chance. In the meantime, any thoughts on the provisional results?

 

My observations so far :

 

+Since 1971, UK houses valued in gold look overbought when the RSI is at 70 or above. We are now still at RSI = 70 despite a huge drop from c. 700 ounces to c. 200 ounces since 2004. More drops ahead?

 

+MACD histogram still positive in Feb 2010, but perhaps heading back to below zero. Again may suggest further drops looking at historical patterns of this indicator on this chart in months ahead.

 

[dietcolaaddict]

So technicals and fundamentals both point to a slide in UK house prices.

 

The government intervention card has been played out in full, next to crack are the main stream media. At the moment, they are bullish, but lets see in the months ahead. Snow and Stamp Duty are a bit lame as excuses go. Watch for more and more sarcastic comments at the end of these 'spin' stories....

 

House prices fall for first time in 10 months thanks to bad winter and end of stamp duty holiday

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...l#ixzz0gdg5aRWc

House prices fell for the first time in 10 months during February as the market suffered a sharp slowdown in activity, figures showed today.

Nationwide Building Society attributed the one per cent drop to a combination of the severe winter weather during the early part of the year and the end of the Government's stamp duty holiday.

The fall, which ended nine consecutive months of price rises, did not come as a surprise as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors had pointed to a steep drop in activity from both potential buyers and sellers during January.

 

[stuckmojo]

So technicals and fundamentals both point to a slide in UK house prices.

 

The government intervention card has been played out in full, next to crack are the main stream media. At the moment, they are bullish, but lets see in the months ahead. Snow and Stamp Duty are a bit lame as excuses go. Watch for more and more sarcastic comments at the end of these 'spin' stories....

 

House prices fall for first time in 10 months thanks to bad winter and end of stamp duty holiday

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...l#ixzz0gdg5aRWc

Excellent post. It does look like all the indicators point towards a slide in House Prices. It needs momentum though

[alex2010]

I'm very new to those kind of things, I don't even know where to find this data, let alone read it!

Have a look at Barratt Developments Plc on Google Finance:- http://www.google.co.uk/finance?client=ig&q=LON:BDEV

 

I don't know enough to say whether this view of the shares is any good, but you do at least get the (seemingly) all important volume along with the price. I know Bubb and the others seem to prefer BigCharts, but I think google is an easy and accessible way of at least getting started with these things.

[tlb01g]

 

Okay back to house prices. I was just going through the local area using Rightmove with Property Bee and noticed that asking price on rentals are falling as well. Been a while since I have seen that happen in their area?

 

As an anecdote, in the last 5-6 years we have been renting we have never had the rent put up.

 

It does look like rental prices in my area are declining. I have approached my landlords and presented evidence that I am now overpaying 10% at least on last year's going rate. If they don't budge, I'll be leaving. The only thing I'm unsure of is what rent I have to pay if I overstay while trying to arrange my next place; I assume it will be the rent previously agreed.

 

I know this 10% drop comment sounds hard to believe, but I base it on 2 places very near me that are superior and let either for the same or less than I pay.

 

Another fact: my old rented place in Herts - landlord there refused to drop my rent so I moved out. He did some refurb last summer but has been unable to let it since, even at the same asking rent price as I paid from 2005. And that's near trains, buses etc. So, for turning down my rent reduction of 10% a month he has it seems had a void costing him at the very least so far £4K in lost rent, possibly £5K. If we assume he had my old place ready to rent out from one month after I left it, the lost rent due to the void is £4900.

 

TLB

 

TLB

[Kapouillax]

Have a look at Barratt Developments Plc on Google Finance:- http://www.google.co.uk/finance?client=ig&q=LON:BDEV

 

I don't know enough to say whether this view of the shares is any good, but you do at least get the (seemingly) all important volume along with the price. I know Bubb and the others seem to prefer BigCharts, but I think google is an easy and accessible way of at least getting started with these things.

 

Thanks Alex.

 

It looks clear enough that it's staying low, and, if anything else, going slowly down. Let's see if that coincides with the price of housing going down!

[drbubb]

Okay back to house prices. I was just going through the local area using Rightmove with Property Bee and noticed that asking price on rentals are falling as well. Been a while since I have seen that happen in their area?

As an anecdote, in the last 5-6 years we have been renting we have never had the rent put up.

How much have house prices risen during that time?

 

 

[id5]

How much have house prices risen during that time?

In our target area not at all, down about 15% - 20% so far based on sale prices of similar size houses.

 

At the moment there are a number of rentals coming onto the market that are currently lived in by the owners and they are looking to pay less by renting a smaller property and expect the renter of their bigger property to pay enough to cover their mortgage and hopefully some of the rent. Quite a few of them have yet to realise that rent does not go up in a straight line in relation to house value and larger houses normally generate less rent per £100K than a smaller house. They should have cut their losses earlier. I suspect that quite a few are already in negative equity or just unwilling to take a cold bath on the loss of a previously expected sale value.

 

There are a number of properties, 2 and 3 beds, that I know have been sold at auction in the area and these are always rented out. The landlords can afford to let them out at a cheaper rate driving the rental prices down.

 

GBP down, interest rates going up around the world, inflation creeping up, not a problem, the recession is over, Gordon has said so and the statistics of GDP do not lie, do they? Now can someone please point me to the life rafts as I cannot stand the this tune the band is playing.....

 

[G0ldfinger]

It's turning again.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...es_RPI-adj.html

[id5]

It's turning again.

...

No problem, Budget Man will save it with No Stamp Duty for < £250K rule, for a couple of months anyway, come the summer it will be back to heading downward as the lack of incentives to get banks to lend to small and medium businesses will keep the lid on any rises along with imported inflation as GBP slides slowly downwards.

 

[G0ldfinger]

Going down...? This is getting steeper than I thought.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

[G0ldfinger]

Now through the 200oz-line.

Going down...? This is getting steeper than I thought.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

 

[Manual labourer]

Now through the 200oz-line.

 

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

 

Cheers

 

GF.

[sonixtorm]

 

This is as anecdotal as it gets, but in terms of supply, the usual daily count of properties added in the area I monitor via Globrix is ~20 (maximum 30, unless a new agent comes online). Today: 97!

 

Time will tell if this is a blip or the start of a new trend...

 

 

[DoctorSolar]

This is as anecdotal as it gets, but in terms of supply, the usual daily count of properties added in the area I monitor via Globrix is ~20 (maximum 30, unless a new agent comes online). Today: 97!

 

Time will tell if this is a blip or the start of a new trend...

If I heard correctly the new cabinet are all taking a 5% pay cut as a demonstration of what is to come and that they too are "doing their bit for the deficit". Folks buying houses at current prices are taking a huge risk. All the pressure to my mind is weighing down on house prices. I understand all the reasons folks on here have given for buying now as I have a wife and child too. But really renting has been fantastic:

 

ZERO debt

 

Roof just fell in - no massive repair bill for me - catch mr landlord

 

Waking up each morning to see the STR fund (in gold) has made me more when I was asleep than I make working during the day.

 

Seeing G0ldfingers charts of UK houses priced in gold

 

Knowing I am not a wage slave to the banksters by giving them interest on a mortgage

 

I would only consider buying now if I were totally minted and could buy in cash and still have bullion left over. If you dont fall in to that category waiting another year could be the best move you ever make.

[tlb01g]

There is talk of a rise in CGT on second homes/developed properties going up to 40% from April 2011 (or sooner?), but there are ways around it by designating it as your own residence, under certain rules and time limits. I dare say some will be able to wriggle out.

 

If not, and if this comes in, there might be a downward pressure on prices in some areas where property speculators run for the exit pre-CGT deadline.

 

But what we really need is for base rates to go above 6%, in my day even 6% was a low-moderate rate. Anything below 8% is low, really. Doesn't look likely, does it, they continue to have some magic dust on the eyes of the market and gilt buyers, don't ask me how.

 

TLB

[sonixtorm]

If I heard correctly the new cabinet are all taking a 5% pay cut as a demonstration of what is to come and that they too are "doing their bit for the deficit". Folks buying houses at current prices are taking a huge risk. All the pressure to my mind is weighing down on house prices. I understand all the reasons folks on here have given for buying now as I have a wife and child too. But really renting has been fantastic:

 

ZERO debt

 

Interesting about the cabinet pay cut. I wonder if the UK too will be delivering pay cuts for the public sector, rather than a pay freeze (in the light of news from Spain)?

 

It would take a lot to convince me to buy property within the next year.

 

[Wanderer]

My (public sector) pay has been frozen which isn't great when RPI is above 4.4%.

 

No talk of pay cuts yet (would be difficult legally given our contracts) but plenty of talk of redundancies. Our Ministry has been through a tough time the last 3 years and I think we'll be spared the worst of it though. Wouldn't care to be in certain departments...

[id5]

My (public sector) pay has been frozen which isn't great when RPI is above 4.4%.

 

No talk of pay cuts yet (would be difficult legally given our contracts) but plenty of talk of redundancies. Our Ministry has been through a tough time the last 3 years and I think we'll be spared the worst of it though. Wouldn't care to be in certain departments...

Think yourself lucky my private sector wage took a 10% haircut last year and no increase this year although hopefully by September when it is renegotiate it will increase but I suspect only by a couple of % maximum.

 

[Wanderer]

Think yourself lucky my private sector wage took a 10% haircut last year and no increase this year although hopefully by September when it is renegotiate it will increase but I suspect only by a couple of % maximum.

 

Don't worry, I do try to count my lucky stars daily. I'm only pointing out that a pay freeze for 4 years at 4.4% inflation (RPI) is pretty much a 20% cut on public salary expenditure which is going to come in handy for Mr Osborne as he does his sums.

[Wanderer]

P.S. I note HIPS will be abandoned. If that tempts a lot more speculative sellers into the market and so crowds supply, then so much the better!

[drbubb]

If I heard correctly the new cabinet are all taking a 5% pay cut as a demonstration of what is to come and that they too are "doing their bit for the deficit". Folks buying houses at current prices are taking a huge risk..

 

I agree!

Inflation is going to help, if your income is being cut.

 

People who talk about "inflating away the debt" in an environment like this are "smoking something."

The debt burden only eases if rates drop, or your income rises. I dont see either of those happening

in the present environment

[Jake]

If I heard correctly the new cabinet are all taking a 5% pay cut as a demonstration of what is to come and that they too are "doing their bit for the deficit". Folks buying houses at current prices are taking a huge risk. All the pressure to my mind is weighing down on house prices. I understand all the reasons folks on here have given for buying now as I have a wife and child too. But really renting has been fantastic:

 

ZERO debt

 

Roof just fell in - no massive repair bill for me - catch mr landlord

 

Waking up each morning to see the STR fund (in gold) has made me more when I was asleep than I make working during the day.

 

Seeing G0ldfingers charts of UK houses priced in gold

 

Knowing I am not a wage slave to the banksters by giving them interest on a mortgage

 

I would only consider buying now if I were totally minted and could buy in cash and still have bullion left over. If you dont fall in to that category waiting another year could be the best move you ever make.

Great post. I agree 100%, (despite stating reasons for buying in other places.)

[ziknik]

I agree!

Inflation is NOT going to help, if your income is being cut.

 

People who talk about "inflating away the debt" in an environment like this are "smoking something."

The debt burden only eases if rates drop, or your income rises. I dont see either of those happening

in the present environment

Do you see wages being suppressed for 25 years?

 

It's important to remember that 'inflating away the debt' can happen at any point in the life of the debt. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow or next week or next year.