UK House prices: News & Views

[VictorBroom]

Anyone have Sterling libor charts?

 

Not a chart... but just found this data which looks useful:

http://www.selftrade.co.uk/market-data/mon...erest-rates.php

 

You can alter the time frame in which to see a percentage change.

 

[G0ldfinger]

The chart has been updated. The situation is already worse than I thought. We are almost back to -5% already!

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Real..._Base_Rate.html

[G0ldfinger]

And here updates house price charts:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...es_RPI-adj.html

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

[Jake]

What was the price of gold when 723oz would buy you the av house?

[drbubb]

Nice charts here, from HPC:

 

This was my view point also. I bought in 2002 knowing we were just entering into bubble territory (4X income), and after I bought prices rocketed for 2 years to take us to an unprecedented 5.5X income in 2005/2004. We went travelling end of 05 and when we came back in 06 I was fully expecting the crash to be well on the way. As an owner of a house I was not too bothered because I wanted to up size and did not care if I lost some of my gains on my current house, after all it was a home and not something I wanted to speculate with.

 

Then along came higher income ratios and 100% + mortgages, coupled with the sweetener of lower rates, complete insanity.

 

I set a target where I would sell my house and speculate with my home given this is what the government was encouraging in the opposite direction. It hit that target very quickly and I sold. We still have 40% to go from here and I am not banking on wage inflation to do the donkey work.

 

What a mess.

 

http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/page...2147066763&

 

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

What was the price of gold when 723oz would buy you the av house?

From the chart, this was approx. in July 2004. Here is the corresponding gold chart. GBP 210-220 per ounce?

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/Gold_GBP.html

 

House prices were north of GBP 150,000 according to this chart:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/UK_House_Prices.html

[drbubb]

...

have you got it on a Log scale? (I removed the charts; GF.)

[G0ldfinger]

have you got it on a Log scale?

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/Gold_GBP_LOG.html

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/UK_H...Prices_LOG.html

[Jake]

Thanks GF. You do a great service there!

 

So 2004 was the best time to load up on one's 100 oz's of gold, huh? I wish I had known that at the time. I did though start off in the August of 04 and the cost was 220's. (rummages through old receipts...228 to be exact for physical).

So I should have bought a tidy 100 coins then...total 22,800 GBP. Remarkable isn't it? A 67K 'saving'-today that would set you back 90,000 for physical...which is where I suppose av house prices might just fall to in a year or two.

 

So do you think is it worth virgin buyers today picking up their first 100 oz's? (supposing they had the odd 90K in the top drawer). I am now reluctant to recommend friends (as I have lost a few) and to what point is gold still a good buy if you are thinking of average house prices. Well there's lots more to it than that, I know.

Of course we are all hoping gold goes on to double from here and that is conservative by some estimates. Then again it could get a good pelting right down to 2004 prices if you follow Prechter to the letter. (let's not go there on this thread!)...

 

I suppose all this means one should NEVER turn your back on gold. Not in a Bull market anyway. I did my best in 2004 and got well on the road. I dont regret that. But I do regret being a cautious virgin buyer. I should have dumped all my worth then into gold-however I hadn't sold my property at that point. (thank god). I wonder again now...better to just keep buying the dips.

 

It blows my mind looking at old receipts. One says 4x1oz xxxxx 912 quid That is just about the price of 1 today. (wipes tear). 2 0z xxxx's were 515 quid and the silver 1kg's were 245 (inc VAT). So gold has been far better a buy even though I do like my silver and it is in pristine shape compared to the gold which was second hand, except for the junk silver, naturlich.

 

I note since you have moved to Germany, GF, you have scared the Germans into emptying their shelves! I wondered if that is a coincidence? What is the gold/social mood in your circle?

 

 

Fascinting charts btw. Keep them coming. it would be nice to see a chart of 100 gold oz's in GBP over the years. (just so we can hit ourselves over the head from time to time).

[G0ldfinger]

It ain't over 'til it's over!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...n6Eg&pos=11

Defaults on Apartment-Building Loans Set Record for U.S. Banks

 

By Hui-yong Yu

 

May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Defaults on apartment-building mortgages held by U.S. banks climbed to a record 4.6 percent in the first quarter, almost twice the year-earlier level, as more borrowers failed to repay debt approved near the market peak, said Real Capital Analytics Inc. in a report.

...

“Apartment defaults are leading other commercial real estate,” Sam Chandan, global chief economist at Real Capital, said in an interview. “Banks tended to make more aggressively underwritten apartment loans earlier during this last cycle.

Oh, oh.

[Jake]

Fascinting charts btw. Keep them coming. it would be nice to see a chart of 100 gold oz's in GBP over the years. (just so we can hit ourselves over the head from time to time).

Any chance of this GF on Approximity? Maybe a chart of 100oz in Pounds, Dollars, Euros and Yen would be extremely useful when considering when to buy the average property?

[G0ldfinger]

Any chance of this GF on Approximity? Maybe a chart of 100oz in Pounds, Dollars, Euros and Yen would be extremely useful when considering when to buy the average property?

Not sure what the point of 100oz is as compared to 1 oz. Here is a comparison of gold, silver and EUR/GBP/USD accounts (that pay central bank interest). Approximity also has them for other time intervals.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Infl...arison_GBP.html

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Infl...arison_GBP.html

[G0ldfinger]

Houses can now be had at 195 oz. It's a pleasure to see prices falling.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

[G0ldfinger]

U.S. Home Foreclosures Climb 44% to Record in May

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-1...y-update1-.html

 

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home foreclosures reached a record for the second consecutive month in May, with increases in every state, as lenders stepped up property seizures, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

...

“We’re nowhere near out of the woods,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president for marketing, said in a telephone interview. “We’re likely to set a quarterly record for home seizures if June is anything like May.”

[Manual labourer]

U.S. Home Foreclosures Climb 44% to Record in May

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-1...y-update1-.html

 

 

Once interest rates rise,after RPI stays up at 5%, then this will happen in the UK.

 

 

Rising interest rate, food prices, gold and silver prices accompanied by falling housing maket and luxury goods markets?

 

 

Regards

 

ML

[drbubb]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/article7148350.ece

 

From Times Online

June 11, 2010

Hold on to your home as house price recovery is set to stall

 

Property experts say that, if you have the choice, now is not the time to put your house on the market as prices are likely to slump by the end of this year. They also caution that times are getting tougher for those not on the property ladder as rents have been soaring and competition for flats and houses is fierce.

 

The housing market has enjoyed a mini-boom this spring, with prices up 10.5 per cent over the past 12 months

. . .

Ever so subtle, contradictory message, hidden in this article. "Don't sell now" you might flood the market and make things worse for the BTL brigade and the greedy multiple home owners who were building an empire to retire well.

Sure, that makes good sense.

Don't sell now, sell later... when prices are lower, and the average person begins to panic.

What a great way to destroy wealth !

[Vicarious]

Well I've been selling some stock on the back of the expected CGT tax rise and moved my house deposit back into sterling, I put my first ever offer in as I was going to fix for 5 years at 4% and leave some cash aside to cover a small mortgage and then go travel for a year.

 

There is a new development near me which was selling for 200k at the peak, the builder went bust and the bank took hold of all the houses, they are now sellling the 3 beds for 165k, there is another development across the road just starting where the builder is doing 4 beds for 165k. I was told the bank was desperate to get rid so put in an offer of 140k and it was knocked straight back without even a hint of what the bank would accept. V.suprised at that.

 

 

[drbubb]

...they are now sellling the 3 beds for 165k, there is another development across the road just starting where the builder is doing 4 beds for 165k. I was told the bank was desperate to get rid so put in an offer of 140k and it was knocked straight back without even a hint of what the bank would accept. V.suprised at that.

Dont worry.

Give them time, and they may be begging for decent offers like that

 

[drbubb]

From HPC / London Asking Prices Fall By 2% In One Month

 

Home.co.uk looks at average price of properties on the market and surveys more properties than Rightmove.

 

Personally, I think panic is starting to set in now amongst sellers who realise that they have left it too late and have dashed in en masse in Spring - just as expected. People always move in crowds. Number of mortgages stays the same at 1/3 - 1/2 of peak, unemployment highest for 15 years and now the big austerity plan and Southern Europe. etc etc.

 

Prices going up last year was a surprise to most, but nobody would be surprised if they fell a long way from here in the current climate - which is not set to get better for some tine.

 

A few more months like this, and the panic will really set in.

[G0ldfinger]

A few more months like this, and the panic will really set in.

100 oz coming - easily. We're 'half' way there already.

[ziknik]

House price inflation back to 10%, government says

 

Annual house price inflation is back in double-digits, according to government figures.

 

The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) said prices in April were 10.1% higher than a year ago.

...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10317283.stm

[ziknik]

(This is actually a very bearish story if you pick through it)

 

 

U.K. house prices edge higher in May: RICS

...

The RICS survey found a net balance of 22% of surveyors reported a rise rather than a fall in house prices in May, up from 17% in April.

...

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-house-...nk=MW_news_stmp

[drbubb]

House price inflation back to 10%, government says

Annual house price inflation is back in double-digits, according to government figures.

The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) said prices in April were 10.1% higher than a year ago.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10317283.stm

Look Back in Anger.

Look forward, and you will see something different

 

(From a comment there):

All them government workers can afford those houses and there are more government workers with more money than the taxpayers.

 

Who's In Your Wallet?

 

By 2015, almost £10 billion of public money will be spent every year supporting the retirement of millions of public sector employees – up from £4 billion this year, the independent body said.

 

In a speech on Monday, Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, said the pensions were simply "not affordable". The pension burden will almost certainly lead to higher taxes or greater cuts to public sector spending.

 

The OBR report – the first it has produced since it was established by George Osborne – set out the expected rises as part of a comprehensive examination of the state of public finances.

 

In 2010-11, the amount spent by the taxpayer on public sector pensions will be £4 billion, rising to £5.5 billion the following year, the report said.

The cost will then rise, on average, by 20 per cent each year until the commitment reaches £9.4 billion in 2014-15. This equates to almost £4,000 for each of Britain's 26 million households. The sharp increase, according to the Treasury, is a result of Britain's ageing population.

 

More people who have already retired are living longer and there is now a growing number of public sector workers who are retiring. There are also almost a million more public sector workers than a decade ago. Within hours of the publication of the report, Mr Clegg attacked the gold-plated pension schemes, signaling that the Coalition Government would have to tackle the problem soon.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...000-a-year.html

 

==

 

I am really beginning to like the new Dep-PM.

What a difference from "Two Brain Cells" Prescott !

 

I am also wonder when they will begin to string up the Laborites for there multiple lies.

Surely, some genuine crimes will be found

[nicejim]

Low interest rates may not be enough to enable mortgagees to hold off repossession. They are teetering on the edge.

 

“Claims that households have begun to step up the rate at which they are paying back their mortgages do not look well founded."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...-mortgages.html

 

Related:

"Debt worries are forcing mothers back to work even when they would rather stay at home"

"many families are not fully prepared for the impact of surviving on a reduced income"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...ck-to-work.html

[drbubb]

Have you tried negotiating a Rental Cut Recently?

Show this chart to your landlord

================================

 

This is not positive for BTL Landlords

 

(I stumbled across this chart while collecting data for the Wealth Measurement project):

 

RENTAL INDEX

Rent Index: 580.287 / calculated from 5,477 tenancies - at 23 Jun 2010 02:09

/source: http://www.rentindex.co.uk/Graphs.aspx

compare:

Above is the average of Halifax and Nationwide indices

 

/ HPC clone : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=145722

/ Yields around the world : http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/investment-rating