VictorBroom Posted October 31, 2010 Report Share Posted October 31, 2010 Can I get paid with £20 worth of silver please I realise it's just for fun but is that £20 worth of silver in Dec 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 1, 2010 Report Share Posted November 1, 2010 Despite wanting house prices to fall and understanding the arguments why it should happen I'm beginning to feel pretty doubtful it will actually happen to the extent discussed on here. I just don't see it falling 20% or more from here when priced in sterling. In other currencies/commodities sure. Anyone care to have a wager on this? I will bet you, but not much. However, to make the bet fair, you must either: + Give me suitable odds, or + You win the bet, only if the market rallies by a "fair amount" - probably 20% also. In the middle, no money changes hands. To bet otherwise would be to simply make a skewed bet at away from market odds, and I am not in that business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted November 1, 2010 Report Share Posted November 1, 2010 I will bet you, but not much. However, to make the bet fair, you must either: + Give me suitable odds, or + You win the bet, only if the market rallies by a "fair amount" - probably 20% also. In the middle, no money changes hands. To bet otherwise would be to simply make a skewed bet at away from market odds, and I am not in that business. Thanks but azazel has already taken me up on this wager. As I have said I would be happier if I lost this bet than won it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 2, 2010 Report Share Posted November 2, 2010 Thanks but azazel has already taken me up on this wager. As I have said I would be happier if I lost this bet than won it. Okay. Good luck to both of you. It sounds like a big drop might suit you both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2010 Another interesting fact: a comparison of consumer debt in Germany, the UK, and the US, measured as a percentage of GDP. The UK is in double as much doodoo as Germany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2010 UK houses are again below 200 oz, now almost down to 195 oz. That 200 oz level puts up a struggle, but there is no doubt that it will fail spectacularly. http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 6, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2010 Major technical level of 10,000 oz approaching! Maybe we'll stay under it then for the next 60 years to come, as from 1930 to 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted November 6, 2010 Report Share Posted November 6, 2010 Lovely charts GF. On the silver front do you have a green circle (target) for where you think the silver/av house will end up, as you do for the gold/av house chart? Robin Griffiths just said on KWN interview he sees gold doubling easily and silver trebling or quadrupling from here. For silver that extrapolates at about 2,500 oz...if you leave nominal prices at 165,000. . He also mentioned gold entering exponential parabola from 1,450, and thus silver too. Gold around 100oz for an av house is fairly easy. What is not quite so easy is guestimating how many oz of silver would buy the same house. Could we go under 2,500oz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 7, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 Could we go under 2,500oz? I would think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted November 7, 2010 Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 I would think so. Are you expecting 1000oz:1 av. house again a la 1980? Within... 3-10 years? If so it would be worth asking what % you envisage house prices falling from here. 40-50% or maybe just 20% nominally and silver really going crazy. That would surely make silver your trade of the decade then? My own feelings are pretty bullish for silver, 2500oz:house. But you have been quite harsh (I thought) on silver vs gold. By that I mean, I think I have said before it would've been cheaper to load up on silver rather than 100 oz of gold but you have been fond of recommending gold first then silver as a buying priority. Silver chart looks a bit scary to me, now though. As an anecdote a dealer here recently sent me a load of pre 65 US 'junk' 90% stuff after a long absence. Did I want it all? By the time I got back to him price had rocketed and I told him his cheque was in the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d2thdr Posted November 7, 2010 Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 Another interesting fact: a comparison of consumer debt in Germany, the UK, and the US, measured as a percentage of GDP. The UK is in double as much doodoo as Germany. And that alone convinces me they will rather trash the currency than engineer a austerity lead recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Greenland Posted November 7, 2010 Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 And that alone convinces me they will rather trash the currency than engineer a austerity lead recovery. How so? With QE? They might do a bit of that but it would lead to inflation, I don't think the Tories would like to be known as the party that caused inflation, goes against their ideology. Yes they could control it to some extent with high interest rates. If they did that would be disastrous for the economy in so many ways I don't believe they'd be that stupid, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d2thdr Posted November 7, 2010 Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 How so? With QE? They might do a bit of that but it would lead to inflation, I don't think the Tories would like to be known as the party that caused inflation, goes against their ideology. Yes they could control it to some extent with high interest rates. If they did that would be disastrous for the economy in so many ways I don't believe they'd be that stupid, but who knows? http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/3782/bo...erate281010.png This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Greenland Posted November 7, 2010 Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 Precisely. Presumably the government is aware of this too? Would that be good for the economy, the electorate or the banks? So would they really do it? Granted politicians can be amazingly stupid at times. Humans are not rational beings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d2thdr Posted November 7, 2010 Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 Precisely. Presumably the government is aware of this too? Would that be good for the economy, the electorate or the banks? So would they really do it? Granted politicians can be amazingly stupid at times. Humans are not rational beings. With Tories alone perhaps there was a possibility. With Lib-Cons, there is a very remote chance. Libdems wont let that happen. The rug would be pulled under Dave's feet. Time for recovery is gone, me thinks. They will do everything to ensure they (politicos) survive. People, Banks, Economy will be reborn perhaps when Britain decides to have an empire again. They do not care about J6P. Tories were after all the rich gentry of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Greenland Posted November 7, 2010 Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 Ha it will be interesting to revisit this in a year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 7, 2010 Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 Goldfinger, It would be interesting to see a shorter-term gold- and silver-to-house price ratio , perhaps a 10 year chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 7, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 Goldfinger, It would be interesting to see a shorter-term gold- and silver-to-house price ratio , perhaps a 10 year chart? http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/UK_H...es_in_Gold.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/UK_H..._in_Silver.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 9, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2010 UK houses oozing gold big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 9, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2010 Has now been broken the first time in 20 years. Major technical level of 10,000 oz approaching! Maybe we'll stay under it then for the next 60 years to come, as from 1930 to 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 13, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2010 What's happening to house prices in Greece? They had a massive housing boom and very easy credit with low rates? I would have expected a calamatous collapse there but not sure there has been one. The only reason things aren't crashing down is because we are being lied to about how bad things are. If they had done nothing; no QE or bailing out the banks we would have had 2 - 3 years of economic collapse then boom times again. The central banks in the US, Europe and the UK are bumf**king everyone: (1) They don't give you interest on your cash. (2) They don't let house prices go down (far/fast enough) so that you as a reasonable and cautious cash buyer can buy them at a discount to liquidate the overhang and bad credit. The central banks are immoral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Greenland Posted November 13, 2010 Report Share Posted November 13, 2010 Greece house prices? Take a look at http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-es...-house-prices/G Pretty bad but no where near as bad as Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted November 13, 2010 Report Share Posted November 13, 2010 Did Greece have the same crack up boom in prices the same as Ireland though, a wild stab in the dark now...............no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Greenland Posted November 13, 2010 Report Share Posted November 13, 2010 No need for a stab in the dark. It's all there on the graphs on globalpropertyguide.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted November 13, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2010 Greece house prices? Take a look at http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-es...-house-prices/G Pretty bad but no where near as bad as Ireland. Great stuff. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now