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G0ldfinger

UK House prices: News & Views

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Mortagage Approvals

 

Forward indicator suggests UK house prices to be nearly -30% year on year

 

didn't spline used to do this analysis before he got fed up with the mods at hpc

 

When you consider how many more people live in this country than in the early 90s and that more of them are of an age that they will consider buying a house, that graph is truly horrific.

 

This crash is going to be cataclysmic.

 

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Yes. What a story that chart tells.

 

A very close friend has had her place on the market since July. It is a lovely semi in Earlsfield very nice done up with a garden. Good small family home.

 

At the peak houses in her street fetched £600k. She went at £550 had an offer accepted and the deal fell through for some reason. It was taken off the market. In the summer it went back on at £500k. Then £475. Then £450. Then £430. Now £400.

 

Loads of repeat viewings. Loads of interest. People fall in love with the house (it's lovely). IMO Unless she puts it on at £350 it will not sell now.

 

She bought it in 2003 for £270 and spent a lot doing it up.

 

She is anticipating the market, but the market is overtaking her down and she can't keep up

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nationwide:

 

-2.5% MoM

-15.9 YoY

 

Nationwide report

 

Really moving now - I was telling friends and family 6-9 months ago that the fall would be breathtaking due to the utter destruction of mortgage volumes THEN.

 

Now - Mortgage volumes are still making new lows - can the downside get any worse?

 

edit:

 

-3.4% Non seasonally adjusted

from HPC - they're useful for something.... ;)

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I believe spline is behind this website: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/

It's great to see he is keeping the "Builder Bellwether index" (invented by "yours truly") up to date

 

housebuilderscu2.png

 

"House price indices usually suffer from an inherent time lag, so why not look for a real-time indicator of UK house prices?

This house builders index is based on the their quoted share price looks quite promising. It picked up on the mini-downturn in late-2004 and subsequent recovery in 2005, and has clearly signalled recent collapse that started in late-2007."

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He's using a friggin Kalman-filter! Bless.

 

What, praytell, is a "Kalman filter"?

(As far as I know, even Kalmans are allowed on our website) haha

 

This forecast makes some sense IMHO

khp_dec2008.png

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The face of the property precipice (no 'ladder' in sight anywhere...).

_45349013_house_prices_jan09.gif

RIGHT.

We have now seen many months of "Crash Cruise speed"- remember that, anyone?

 

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RIGHT.

We have now seen many months of "Crash Cruise speed"- remember that, anyone?

 

 

Sure do DrBubb - HPC & the Piggies. 1% plus per month.

How they were baited and how you helped to educate the masses.

You must be keeping an eye on the London market as well...at 50% off soon it has to be a buy and even cheaper with FX wins.

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Sure do DrBubb - HPC & the Piggies. 1% plus per month.

How they were baited and how you helped to educate the masses.

You must be keeping an eye on the London market as well...at 50% off soon it has to be a buy and even cheaper with FX wins.

 

Good point on the FX. Weakness there helps reduce the size of the needed fall

 

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Far too optimistic, Steve. See my signature. :)

 

:D :D

 

Yes, but they've devalued the pound :lol:

Actually, I meant to put "this is the most optimistic possibility" :lol: :lol:

 

 

For a REALLY good read on UK house prices, read this

 

 

UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012

Jan 05, 2009

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html

 

Loads of great charts.

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Enclosed is a great article about sportstars malinvesting in UK property and Icelandic banks. How long till the crowds chant "We all live in Robbie Fowler's repossessed house" ?

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/articl...rty-market.html

 

Talking of his financial adviser, a certain Mr J. Power, former world super-middleweight boxing champion Glenn Catley says 'I'd like to rip Power's head off and spit in the hole,' having paid £370,000 for a one-bedroom flat (:o) at London's Grosvenor Waterside, Victoria, in 2005.

 

That's one man I wouldn't get angry, Mr Power.

 

 

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Enclosed is a great article about sportstars malinvesting in UK property and Icelandic banks. How long till the crowds chant "We all live in Robbie Fowler's repossessed house" ?

...

Just click on the Mark Owen-buys-Dubai ad here on GEI. I cracked up when I saw it. This guy is financially doomed.

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Not sure if this link/article has been posted, but its a good essay IMHO.

 

 

 

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html

 

"Recent house price data as released by the Halifax showed that UK house prices have plunged by more than 20% from the peak of August 2007, which has fulfilled much of the original forecast made in August 2007 for a minimum fall of 15% for the UK housing market and 25% for London, therefore this analysis seeks to project the forecast trend for UK house prices for the next 3 years into 2012."

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