UK House prices: News & Views

[neil324]

Taken from the front page of HPC comments section on the Nationwide figures today. Posted by phdinbubbles.

 

 

 

Seasonal adjustments for Feb:

 

2001: -0.3370%

2002: -0.2599%

2003: -0.2225%

2004: -0.3108%

2005: -0.2393%

2006: -0.0599%

2007: -0.1550%

2008: +0.1178%

2009: +0.0306%

2010: +0.3219%

2011: +0.56% (based on the non-re-adjusted NSA figures, as with previous years)

2012: +5%?

 

 

hmmm. Any thoughts on these stats?

[Kurtz]

Taken from the front page of HPC comments section on the Nationwide figures today. Posted by phdinbubbles.

 

 

 

Seasonal adjustments for Feb:

 

2001: -0.3370%

2002: -0.2599%

2003: -0.2225%

2004: -0.3108%

2005: -0.2393%

2006: -0.0599%

2007: -0.1550%

2008: +0.1178%

2009: +0.0306%

2010: +0.3219%

2011: +0.56% (based on the non-re-adjusted NSA figures, as with previous years)

2012: +5%?

 

 

hmmm. Any thoughts on these stats?

 

Let me guess. This is before they're 'adjusted' for reality.

[John Doe]

You're a good soul.

Just returning favours.

 

Besides, they paid me every penny back, with interest......... only joking about the interest

 

Not that easy to get a job again so quick even back then. He had debts. Serious debts. Like massive debts.

 

The DSS simply refused and he had no other options. 6500 quid that hit me for and he never even tried to pay it back. Just another scumbag.

 

6.5k ouch B'stad! Perhaps the DSS had lent him money before

[John Doe]

Seasonal adjustments for Feb:

2012: +5%?

 

hmmm. Any thoughts on these stats?

A little low perhaps?

[Jake]

King knows the unrest is coming.

 

King surprised not more anger at bankers

It will come when people are hurting. But probably to the politicians not the bankers. They will be forgotton by then, as Brown is now.

[Kurtz]

It will come when people are hurting. But probably to the politicians not the bankers. They will be forgotton by then, as Brown is now.

 

Yup, but for sure at some point it does come. For ordinary people this thing has only just started, as King alludes to.

[G0ldfinger]

Yup, but for sure at some point it does come. For ordinary people this thing has only just started, as King alludes to.

And he (King) does everything so they will continue to make the wrong choices.

[fitkid]

Yup, but for sure at some point it does come. For ordinary people this thing has only just started, as King alludes to.

 

Nope fluoridated water and mcdonalds will take care of that.

[Kurtz]

Nope fluoridated water and mcdonalds will take care of that.

 

Is that what it is? Is that what causes this all accepting, defeatist apathy? It's like one gigantic iron lung.

[drbubb]

Taken from the front page of HPC comments section on the Nationwide figures today. Posted by phdinbubbles.

 

Seasonal adjustments for Feb:

 

2001: -0.3370%

2002: -0.2599%

2003: -0.2225%

2004: -0.3108%

2005: -0.2393%

2006: -0.0599%

2007: -0.1550%

2008: +0.1178%

2009: +0.0306%

2010: +0.3219%

2011: +0.56% (based on the non-re-adjusted NSA figures, as with previous years)

2012: +5%?

 

hmmm. Any thoughts on these stats?

No you see why I do not use SA figures in my H&Nindex.

NSA figures are relatively spin-free.

 

Crash cruise speed is still intact (so far), I believe

A single month of no move (when the SA was negative in prior years) does not invalidate the trend in place.

[drbubb]

PUSH UP - by a "rush to complete"?

 

Stamp tax is going up in the UK.

From 4% to 5% on homes over Pds. 1 million.

The effecctive date is 4 April 2011 - which is not far away.

"Homes bought after that will cost Pds10,000 more in tax to buy than the day before."

 

Today's SCMP , talks about how buyers of high end properties are rushing to complete their purchases.

Moreover, 85% of homes in that bracket are in the London area.

 

This one off influence, which will disappear soon, may have put some upwards pressure on prices.

And such temporary pressure will disappear in the weeks to come, since nuyers are running out of time.

 

I find it strange that the Seasonal Adjustment applied by Nationwide is the reverse of what you would

expect when you are aware of this highly predictable influence.

[BoldAsBrass]

Is that what it is? Is that what causes this all accepting, defeatist apathy? It's like one gigantic iron lung.

 

Maybe it's why they don't teach history in schools anymore. Maybe if young people knew that, in the past, there had been a Peasants' Revolt or knew about the Tolpuddle Martyrs or the French revolution they would realise that you don't actually have to put up with whatever situation you find yourself in.

 

By way of research I just asked my two sons (both young adults) if they had heard of the events I mentioned above - they had no idea what I was talking about.

 

This link makes interesting reading - Government report on home ownership

 

It supports my contention that we are witnessing a structural shift in home ownership with more people renting. And, with rents as high as they are, this is supporting house prices.

[alexreeve]

Maybe it's why they don't teach history in schools anymore. Maybe if young people knew that, in the past, there had been a Peasants' Revolt...

Massacre, followed by all leaders murdered, concessions recanted.

or knew about the Tolpuddle Martyrs

Prosecuted, sent to penal colony in Australia (although later released to die in workhouses), no concessions.

or the French revolution

The terror, hyperinflation, conscripted to bring enlightenment/utter misery to the rest of Europe.

 

These are the inspiring stories of revolution? Not all that tempting...

 

[G0ldfinger]

Houses -- such a sucker investment!!

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H..._in_Silver.html

 

Still more to come:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...Silver_LOG.html

[Kurtz]

Houses -- such a sucker investment!!

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H..._in_Silver.html

 

Still more to come:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...Silver_LOG.html

 

Like I said, years back on HPC when QE first kicked off . . . houses have crashed in anything other than the Pound.

 

Took ages to get it through their heads.

 

[Concrete Jungle]

Did it get through in the end. Just before Aitch Pee See banned me any talk of house prices in anything other than turdling was frowned upon. Anything that couldn't be created out of thin air and manipulated to suit the whims of politicians, central bankers and banksters was a no no. Be it gold, silver, copper, oil, wheat, lead, loaves of bread or anything else commodity related that actually exists.

 

Like I said, years back on HPC when QE first kicked off . . . houses have crashed in anything other than the Pound.

 

Took ages to get it through their heads.

[Kurtz]

Did it get through in the end. Just before Aitch Pee See banned me any talk of house prices in anything other than turdling was frowned upon. Anything that couldn't be created out of thin air and manipulated to suit the whims of politicians, central bankers and banksters was a no no. Be it gold, silver, copper, oil, wheat, lead, loaves of bread or anything else commodity related that actually exists.

 

To some. I did a long post when QE was introduced warning of the effects . . . it disappeared.

 

[BoldAsBrass]

Massacre, followed by all leaders murdered, concessions recanted.

 

Prosecuted, sent to penal colony in Australia (although later released to die in workhouses), no concessions.

 

The terror, hyperinflation, conscripted to bring enlightenment/utter misery to the rest of Europe.

 

These are the inspiring stories of revolution? Not all that tempting...

 

And yet, somehow, we no longer pay tithes to the squire or work in dangerous factories until we drop from exhaustion.

 

And, the French seem to get by without a royal family.

 

No revolution changes things for the better immediately - often things change for the worse for a while. But, look back through history and you'll see nothing changes unless people revolt against the situation they find themselves in.

[Kurtz]

And yet, somehow, we no longer pay tithes to the squire or work in dangerous factories until we drop from exhaustion.

 

And, the French seem to get by without a royal family.

 

No revolution changes things for the better immediately - often things change for the worse for a while. But, look back through history and you'll see nothing changes unless people revolt against the situation they find themselves in.

 

Tithe = Council tax, VAT, Income tax, NI, carbon tax, fuel tax, TV license, road fund license . . .

 

What proportion of an average workers gross income is now taken in overall tax?

 

Are they being robbed?

 

[BoldAsBrass]

Tithe = Council tax, VAT, Income tax, NI, carbon tax, fuel tax, TV license, road fund license . . .

 

What proportion of an average workers gross income is now taken in overall tax?

 

Are they being robbed?

 

Oh, indeed, different tithes. But life today is still immeasurably better than it used to be - for most people.

 

But, perhaps for the first time, it looks as though a generation is going to have a lower standard of living - and a harder time of it, generally - than the preceding generation.

 

I remember a chap who used to live next door to my Grandfather, in a village in Bedfordshire. He worked all his life, 14 to 65, at the brickworks. He cycled there, 14 miles each way, every day of his working life. The story was (I don't know if it was bullshit, but you used to hear similar stories regularly in those days) that he never missed a day's work. Snow, hail, frost, rain or heat-wave - he turned up.

 

He lived in a tiny cottage with an outside loo (bottom of the garden, wooden seat with a hole in it and bucket below) and water drawn from a well about half a mile away. The cottage was rented from (via various intermediaries) the Duke of Bedford. (This is when I was a kid in the 1950s). No electricity either. When he wasn't working he toiled in his garden and allotment growing vegetables. Even the front garden of his cottage always had rows of potatoes, runner bean canes etc. Flowers were a luxury that could not be afforded. The ground had to be productive. If I close my eyes I can see him now walking back from the well with two big buckets full of water in his hands. Blokes in those days seemed to be as hard as nails.

 

Even as a kid, and as a young man visting my Grandad, I used to think to myself 'fuck that, that's not living - that's just eternal drudgery'. Our life in a council house with running water and electricity seemed like the height of luxurious debauchery at the time.

 

I realise I have opened myself up for Monty Pythonesque cracks about living in a hole in 't road - but, seriously, people used to live like this - just two generations ago. By comparison being well fed and warm in a centrally heated, double glazed (with running water mind!) house and heading backwards and forwards to work in a nice warm car - with satellite TV and broadband at home and 't IPOD and 't IPAD to hand - well the fact you're being robbed blind by 't government doesn't seem so bad.

 

Strikes me, the nature of human society is that most people get robbed blind and a few do the robbing. Maybe we're all too soft nowadays to do anything about it.

[Kurtz]

Oh, indeed, different tithes. But life today is still immeasurably better than it used to be - for most people.

 

But, perhaps for the first time, it looks as though a generation is going to have a lower standard of living - and a harder time of it, generally - than the preceding generation.

 

I remember a chap who used to live next door to my Grandfather, in a village in Bedfordshire. He worked all his life, 14 to 65, at the brickworks. He cycled there, 14 miles each way, every day of his working life. The story was (I don't know if it was bullshit, but you used to hear similar stories regularly in those days) that he never missed a day's work. Snow, hail, frost, rain or heat-wave - he turned up.

 

He lived in a tiny cottage with an outside loo (bottom of the garden, wooden seat with a hole in it and bucket below) and water drawn from a well about half a mile away. The cottage was rented from (via various intermediaries) the Duke of Bedford. (This is when I was a kid in the 1950s). No electricity either. When he wasn't working he toiled in his garden and allotment growing vegetables. Even the front garden of his cottage always had rows of potatoes, runner bean canes etc. Flowers were a luxury that could not be afforded. The ground had to be productive. If I close my eyes I can see him now walking back from the well with two big buckets full of water in his hands. Blokes in those days seemed to be as hard as nails.

 

Even as a kid, and as a young man visting my Grandad, I used to think to myself 'fuck that, that's not living - that's just eternal drudgery'. Our life in a council house with running water and electricity seemed like the height of luxurious debauchery at the time.

 

I realise I have opened myself up for Monty Pythonesque cracks about living in a hole in 't road - but, seriously, people used to live like this - just two generations ago. By comparison being well fed and warm in a centrally heated, double glazed (with running water mind!) house and heading backwards and forwards to work in a nice warm car - with satellite TV and broadband at home and 't IPOD and 't IPAD to hand - well the fact you're being robbed blind by 't government doesn't seem so bad.

 

Strikes me, the nature of human society is that most people get robbed blind and a few do the robbing. Maybe we're all too soft nowadays to do anything about it.

 

I do agree, so very much. Life has improved, even here in the jungle. Past five years especially, most of the shacks are gone and people even paint their homes now. So it's changed, improved, even here.

[tallim]

Oh, indeed, different tithes. But life today is still immeasurably better than it used to be - for most people.

 

But, perhaps for the first time, it looks as though a generation is going to have a lower standard of living - and a harder time of it, generally - than the preceding generation.

 

I remember a chap who used to live next door to my Grandfather, in a village in Bedfordshire. He worked all his life, 14 to 65, at the brickworks. He cycled there, 14 miles each way, every day of his working life. The story was (I don't know if it was bullshit, but you used to hear similar stories regularly in those days) that he never missed a day's work. Snow, hail, frost, rain or heat-wave - he turned up.

 

He lived in a tiny cottage with an outside loo (bottom of the garden, wooden seat with a hole in it and bucket below) and water drawn from a well about half a mile away. The cottage was rented from (via various intermediaries) the Duke of Bedford. (This is when I was a kid in the 1950s). No electricity either. When he wasn't working he toiled in his garden and allotment growing vegetables. Even the front garden of his cottage always had rows of potatoes, runner bean canes etc. Flowers were a luxury that could not be afforded. The ground had to be productive. If I close my eyes I can see him now walking back from the well with two big buckets full of water in his hands. Blokes in those days seemed to be as hard as nails.

 

Even as a kid, and as a young man visting my Grandad, I used to think to myself 'fuck that, that's not living - that's just eternal drudgery'. Our life in a council house with running water and electricity seemed like the height of luxurious debauchery at the time.

 

I realise I have opened myself up for Monty Pythonesque cracks about living in a hole in 't road - but, seriously, people used to live like this - just two generations ago. By comparison being well fed and warm in a centrally heated, double glazed (with running water mind!) house and heading backwards and forwards to work in a nice warm car - with satellite TV and broadband at home and 't IPOD and 't IPAD to hand - well the fact you're being robbed blind by 't government doesn't seem so bad.

 

Strikes me, the nature of human society is that most people get robbed blind and a few do the robbing. Maybe we're all too soft nowadays to do anything about it.

 

An example of a lower standard of living, I've been following this thread on another website for a few days...

 

http://www.mx5nutz.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=68394

 

If it's genuine, basically it's a 27 year old support worker on a zero hours contract (not guaranteed work every week) who has ended up with no money saved at the end of each month, mainly because his work does not pay for his fuel or use of car, even though his job is driving people in care around to go shopping, go to the doctors, etc... He wants to move in with a new girlfriend, but needs some cash. He's seriously considering moving out of his 75 quid a week room into a tent in his sister's back garden to save money. It's an extreme example and I'm sure he could rearrange things so he doesn't have to do it, but I'm still a bit shocked and strangely, rather impressed.

[drbubb]

It is a CYCLICAL THING

 

An example of a lower standard of living, I've been following this thread on another website for a few days...

 

http://www.mx5nutz.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=68394

 

If it's genuine, basically it's a 27 year old support worker on a zero hours contract (not guaranteed work every week) who has ended up with no money saved at the end of each month, mainly because his work does not pay for his fuel or use of car, even though his job is driving people in care around to go shopping, go to the doctors, etc... He wants to move in with a new girlfriend, but needs some cash. He's seriously considering moving out of his 75 quid a week room into a tent in his sister's back garden to save money. It's an extreme example and I'm sure he could rearrange things so he doesn't have to do it, but I'm still a bit shocked and strangely, rather impressed.

It also happened during the Depression of the 1930's in USA :

 

The years of the roaring '20s and the stock market and huge spending boom which preceded the 1929 top do seem to foreshadow the period we are living through now. After the Tech and Internet Boom of the 1990s, the market peaked and the stock market bubble burst. We now remember 2000 ushered in a two year plus stock market slide, but nothing to rival the Wall Street Crash of 1929-1932. The generosity of our modern Federal Reserve has, so far, saved us from a slide into economic crisis. People have kept spending, using cheap borrowed money, and easy credit supported by rising house prices. As I write this, the property bubble is still growing, and our American dream of never-ending abundant times are still intact. In those older days of my father's youth, people were also ambitious and optimistic. They traded up when possible, and borrowed money if needed, in order to improve the quality of their lives. My father wrote about those times:

 

"One afternoon in the summer of 1929, I heard a horn blowing in front of our house. I looked up and saw a brand new Model "A" Ford with my dad at the wheel. It turned out that he had traded the old Model "T" with the rumble seat in for a brand new Model "A". It was a great car and the whole family piled in and went for a ride. I was ecstatic!" (My Fabulous Journey Through Life, Family Archive, 2003, page 4.)

 

But that magical car did not stay in our family long. Within a few months, the economic climate had changed, and my grandfather lost his job, making it impossible to keep up the payments. So the car got repossessed, along with the new cars of many other unfortunates who also lost their employment and their regular wages. And with the job losses, the stock market crash of 1929 morphed into a severe downturn in the economy.

 

The slowdown was aggravated by a collapse in credit. In the roaring twenties, it was easy to borrow money, for building new homes or buying new cars. Some, like my grandfather who had worked as a piano tuner, got credit beyond what that they could readily service. So when the work dried up, and money got tight, the payments became impossible. In the thirties, America became glutted with repossessed cars and houses for sale. Demand for new products faded, and the wheels of industry slowed to a crawl.

 

With no pay coming in, my father's family lived for awhile on the property of his maternal grandfather, who was better off than they were. My father was very impressed by the apparent wealth of his grandparent: he possessed his own home and even a housekeeper. But there suddenly there were too many hopes riding on one old man.

 

"There was not enough room in this grandfather's house for our entire family so we were forced to pitch a tent in the front yard. We had use of the house for tending to our personal needs and for some of our meals."

 

I wrote that back in Oct.2005 - when I saw clearly what was coming. It was based on something written by my own father about his experience in the 1930's:

 

See: Lessons of the Grandparents : http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=...sw0A7CQd7g55Ulg

[Jake]

Houses -- such a sucker investment!!

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H..._in_Silver.html

 

Still more to come:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...Silver_LOG.html

Gob smacking as ever charts! Is this not the trade of the century we are seeing in silver?

 

Do you have an envisioned timeline for 1000 oz per average house, GF? No doubt that is where you think we are heading. By 2020? That would be some 2020 'vision' then.

[BoldAsBrass]

Houses -- such a sucker investment!!

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H..._in_Silver.html

 

Still more to come:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...Silver_LOG.html

 

When you look at that second chart ... what does it actually mean? When you measure the price of houses in silver surely you can't tell if the house price has gone up or the silver price has gone down. Wouldn't it be more helpful if it showed the actual price of silver and houses too?

 

Doesn't that chart show that, on balance, over arbitrary time periods within the last 40 years, houses have been a better investment than silver? And, of course, they keep you warm and dry.