Jump to content
G0ldfinger

UK House prices: News & Views

Recommended Posts

I am surprised that this sort of delusional story is still getting published:

 

London house prices "could explode"

 

LONDON (Reuters) - London can expect a future explosion in house prices unless there is an increase in construction during the economic downturn, one of the city's key figures said on Tuesday.

 

Peter Rogers, chief executive at the London Development Agency (LDA), said prices will rocket because of pent-up demand.

 

"Demand exceeds supply and unless there is a steady stream of housing when the recovery does come there will be an explosion in house prices because of pent-up demand with no supply," he told London Assembly committee members.

 

Last year London Mayor Boris Johnson promised 50,000 extra affordable homes during the next three years but the collapse in house prices and the credit crunch has left construction in the doldrums.

 

The LDA is working with the mayor and housing agencies to increase development, Rogers said.

 

/more: http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...E5054FM20090106

== ==

 

Idiot!

If he is saying that the market might turn up at some point when supply and demand are better balanced

(ie the massive excess supply has been absorbed), then I would have thought tht was a good thing, not

something to be prevented by throwing more supply onto a weak housing market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There was an article in one of the construction publications last year that rubbished the claims of building an extra 50,000 affordable homes. I think it was Peter Rogers who was squirming like a worm on the hook if memory serves me right. I will dig it out later on today and check.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012

Jan 05, 2009

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html

Loads of great charts.

 

Very plausible

uk-house-price-forecast2009-nov08.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Very plausible

And fits nicely with a road to economic recovery starting halfway through this year.

 

although The bottom is likely to be closer to 80k than 130k

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RBS case highlights repossession threat even when mortgage repayments have been paid

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5385975.ece

 

The Council of Mortgage Lenders said that the clause allowing lenders to demand that a mortgage be repaid at short notice existed in the small print of almost every mortgage in Britain, although it was meant to cover only exceptional circumstances. This month a judge supported the right of lenders to repossess properties at will under a law dating back to 1925.

 

:blink: :blink: :blink:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RBS case highlights repossession threat even when mortgage repayments have been paid

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5385975.ece

 

 

 

:blink: :blink: :blink:

A serious case of "really should've read the small print on those mortgage agreements"

It doesn't even have to be housing, every overdraft/loan agreement ever to cross my desk has had a "demand full and final settlement within x days" clause in it.

housing speculators bend over and prepare to take your medicine.

 

More worrying is this suggests RBS is getting margin calls its not in a position to meet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not houses, but on the same theme.

 

Thousands of drivers who bought cars on hire purchase face 'negative equity'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/4...ive-equity.html

 

Thousands of motorists who bought cars on hire purchase are handing them back to finance companies because they face being left in 'negative equity'.

 

Drivers who bought prestige models have been worst hit because the nose dive in second-hand prices means they owe significantly more than the cars are worth.

 

According to Auto Express, the shortfall for drivers across the country has now reached £272 million.

 

Buying a car is often a family's biggest financial transaction apart from home purchase.

 

Thousands of motorists try to spread the bill through a system known as Personal Contract Purchase.

 

This entails putting a deposit down and then paying monthly instalments for two or three years, before having the option to buy the car outright.

 

The final payment – known as a balloon payment – is based on what the car is expected to be worth at the end of the contract.

 

But the collapse of the second hand market has meant that the amount demanded by finance companies is often far more than the car is actually worth.

 

According to CAP, one industry analyst, in December 2006 the "predicted value" of a Volvo XC90 D5 S two years later was £18,775.

 

But this car is now estimated as being worth £12,600 – leaving the motorist with a choice between paying £6,175 more than the car is worth or handing it back to the finance house.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A serious case of "really should've read the small print on those mortgage agreements"

It doesn't even have to be housing, every overdraft/loan agreement ever to cross my desk has had a "demand full and final settlement within x days" clause in it.

housing speculators bend over and prepare to take your medicine....

The BoE will chop down all the few trees left in this country (that didn't get chopped down in earlier Sterling crises) in order to print more notes and avoid this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One factor that I have not seen discussed in relation to UK house prices is as follows. Come 2010 after a general election, I expect whoever is in power to increase taxation to meet the repayment of government borrowing. Will an increase in direct and indirect taxation on those still in employment have any meaningful result on sentiment and result in people feeling they have less net pay and less disposable income? Therefore prolonging the time period and percentage falls from peak slightly?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit of an anecgloatal and relating to Bulgaria's HPC but I'm in Bansko skiing this week;

 

Interesting place, Bansko; they developed it as a ski resort about 5 years ago and the town has been hit by that modern of plagues - property speculation you can't move for empty and half-finished apartment blocks that look like they were thrown up by people (in the words of P. J. O'Rourke) who forgot the recipe for concrete, "Ivan, is it 2 parts cement, 1 part milk, da?".

 

I shared a chair lift yesterday with an Irish woman who bought a place last year some 3 miles away. After a bit of a chat, it became apparent that this was her first time in the place. Good grief! I mean, you wouldn't buy a car without seeing it, what on earth would possess someone to buy a property sight unseen? Needless to say, it's been smashed in value and the promised rental income has vapourised too. The only small mercy is that her sexual preferences reduce the risk of her contributing to the global gene pool.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bit of an anecgloatal and relating to Bulgaria's HPC but I'm in Bansko skiing this week;

 

 

 

I shared a chair lift yesterday with an Irish woman who bought a place last year some 3 miles away. After a bit of a chat, it became apparent that this was her first time in the place. Good grief! I mean, you wouldn't buy a car without seeing it, what on earth would possess someone to buy a property sight unseen? Needless to say, it's been smashed in value and the promised rental income has vapourised too. The only small mercy is that her sexual preferences reduce the risk of her contributing to the global gene pool.

 

During the chair lift she not only told you of her investment and fact which brought you to the conclusion that it was her first time there but also of her sexual preferences? Maybe she just spurned your sexual advances? How long are these chair lift journeys anyway? LOL!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

During the chair lift she not only told you of her investment and fact which brought you to the conclusion that it was her first time there but also of her sexual preferences? Maybe she just spurned your sexual advances? How long are these chair lift journeys anyway? LOL!

 

I work quickly.

 

The information was offered, I felt like I was a priest at a confessional.

 

I guessed the bit about her being a K. D. Lang fan. It might not be true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Talking of Ireland.

 

Warning that house prices may fall by 80%

 

HOUSING MARKET: IRELAND WILL see more demolition than construction of houses over the next decade, as the economy struggles to recover from the collapse of the housing market and the emergence of “zombie” banks, UCD economist Morgan Kelly told the conference.

 

In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms.

 

“Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future,” he said.

 

Low levels of education among those employed in construction – where worker numbers peaked at about 280,000 – meant retraining would not be straightforward.

 

Recovery will be slow: “It has taken us 10 years to get into this situation – it will in all likelihood take us 10 years to get out of it.”

 

Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation to the property bubble, when in fact he and a handful of other “amateurs” were merely stating what was obvious.

 

Sparing no blushes, he said professional economists in the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute “need to look very closely at their analyses of the Irish economy and figure out what went wrong”.

 

Mr Kelly said Ireland’s “reputational capital” had been damaged by “chancers” such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by “buffoons” such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach.

 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/financ...1738220759.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DANGEROUS TACTIC? Or just an EA gimmick?

 

Cluttons has been experimenting with pricing properties at 40 per cent below the peak price of August 2007, which has created serious competition amongst buyers, resutling in sales at around 25-30 per cent off peak price.

 

James Hyman, partner for residential sales at Cluttons, said: “It is better to undercut the current market level and consequently generate plenty of interest and lots of viewings, creating a situation when buyers are competing to secure the property. in our experience, this will result in a faster sale and higher final sale price than pricing the proerpty more expensively, creating less footfall and failing to attract any potential buyers.”

 

Cluttons recently sold a two-bedroom maisonette in Balham which was marketed at £200,000 and went to sealed bids with 11 offers, resulting in a final sale price of £232,000. The sale was agree within ten days of the property going onto the market.

 

/more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/bbc94474-e192-11...00779fd2ac.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hasn't that guy left the HPC team after being threatened (allegedly) by another member?

 

I think other financial advisors threatened to "report him" to the FSA for his postings and position as HPC spokesman. There was a long thread on HPC a while back but I didn't bother reading past the first few posts on it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×