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UK House prices: News & Views

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The article in The Times also mentioned removing the planning process from the process of converting business premises into residential, as well as other thing. Be interesting to see what it amounts to, but as far as I can tell, more houses means lower prices!

Could mean it's time to buy that old boarded up pub?

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THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECASTS ...

 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5h_gQ69bjl54DuH5sbFVHIjmgoW8Q?docId=N0033871300276698161A

 

Number of homes for sale up 25%

(UKPA) –

The number of properties being put up for sale has soared by 25% year-on-year as sellers become more realistic about how much their homes are worth, research has indicated.

The average estate agent branch had 70 properties on its books in February, up from just 56 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA).

 

24 new homes for the average agent?

 

That's almost one new one per day, assuming something like 10-20 sales per month.

 

BLOODBATH COMING ???

 

No wonder there are so many new homes-for-sale coming to Hong Kong.

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THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECASTS ...

The number of properties being put up for sale has soared by 25% year-on-year as sellers become more realistic about how much their homes are worth, research has indicated.

The average estate agent branch had 70 properties on its books in February, up from just 56 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA).

 

24 new homes for the average agent?

Isn't that 14 extra? One every two days.

 

Perhaps not such a bloodbath.

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THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECASTS ...

 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5h_gQ69bjl54DuH5sbFVHIjmgoW8Q?docId=N0033871300276698161A

 

Number of homes for sale up 25%

(UKPA)

The number of properties being put up for sale has soared by 25% year-on-year as sellers become more realistic about how much their homes are worth, research has indicated.

The average estate agent branch had 70 properties on its books in February, up from just 56 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA).

 

24 new homes for the average agent?

 

That's almost one new one per day, assuming near ZERO SALES

 

BLOODBATH COMING ???

 

No wonder there are so many new homes-for-sale coming to Hong Kong.

 

You have an amazing knack for interpreting numbers.

 

In February 2010 the average agent had 56 properties on their books.

 

In February 2011 the average agent had 70 properties on their books.

 

And you interpret this as meaning that, during February 2011, each agent took on a new property every day ... and postulate, on the basis of your interpretation, that a bloodbath may be coming. I have to say, it's a very strange interpretation and a stranger postulation.

 

I have seen markets with a 'shortage' of properties where, month in, month out, nothing new comes on the market and, in some cases prices were falling and, in other cases, prices were rising.

 

I have seen markets where there are new properties flooding on to the market - again with rising or falling prices.

 

Determining the direction of house prices is a wee bit more complex than observing the number of properties on the market at any one point in time. In my area, during 2009 there was very little on the market. But properties started selling again and a rash of new properties hit the market. Despite (or maybe because of) the increase in supply, prices moved up recovering their post credit crunch falls.

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You have an amazing knack for interpreting numbers.

 

In February 2010 the average agent had 56 properties on their books.

 

In February 2011 the average agent had 70 properties on their books.

 

And you interpret this as meaning that, during February 2011, each agent took on a new property every day ... and postulate, on the basis of your interpretation, that a bloodbath may be coming. I have to say, it's a very strange interpretation and a stranger postulation.

 

I have seen markets with a 'shortage' of properties where, month in, month out, nothing new comes on the market and, in some cases prices were falling and, in other cases, prices were rising.

 

I have seen markets where there are new properties flooding on to the market - again with rising or falling prices.

 

Determining the direction of house prices is a wee bit more complex than observing the number of properties on the market at any one point in time. In my area, during 2009 there was very little on the market. But properties started selling again and a rash of new properties hit the market. Despite (or maybe because of) the increase in supply, prices moved up recovering their post credit crunch falls.

 

I got some figures for you, in Birmingham 1 in 4 are inactive, 1 in 10 un-employed, this before the council or government swing the axe which is going to affect Brum particularly bad.

 

Make no mistake house prices in Birmingham are going to fall, what happens in your area i couldn't give a flying, your children are welcome to it.

 

http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2011/03/15/why-birmingham-is-in-crisis-and-its-future-bleak/

 

 

 

Andrew Adonis, the former education and transport secretary, who now runs an impressive think tank called the Institute for Government is taking a trip to Birmingham tonight – with an uncomfortable message for Britain’s second city.

 

In a speech to businessmen he will describe how Birmingham is now in “crisis”. A version of what he’ll say is behind The Times paywall – but for those who don’t want to pay here are a few extracts from the speech:

 

“Birmingham’s population is still 100,000 down on its peak fifty years ago. The city’s unemployment rate is more than twice the national average. Birmingham also has one of the lowest employment rates in the country, 61 pc against 70 pc nationally.

 

“Birmingham has very low productivity and is excessively dependent on public sector jobs. In Birmingham’s shift from manufacturing to services over the last 35 years, public services have predominated. One in three jobs in the city are now in public services, compared to one in five in financial and business services. Only one in ten jobs are now in manufacturing. Birmingham’s employment is forecast to be 4 pc lower in 2020 than in 2008.

 

“Now the losses in the public sector are starting too. A month ago the city council announced 2,000 job cuts, with many more to come.

 

“Underpinning all this is the most worrying statistic of all. Birmingham almost tops the league of Britain’s low skill cities. More than two in ten of the city’s residents have low skills, compared to just over one in ten nationally.

 

“Given Birmingham’s poor employment and skills base, the deep deprivation which afflicts so much of the city is not hard to explain. Nearly two-thirds of children in the city live in households with low income. Infant mortality – incredibly – is almost twice the national average, worse than in Cuba and on a par with Bulgaria and Chile.”

 

He then goes on to lambast the city’s politicians and civil servants:

 

“Promoting reform to secondary education in the city has been like pulling teeth. I cannot tell you how much agitation, and how many difficult meetings, it took to persuade the City Council – particularly the inward-looking children’s services department – to engage half seriously in the academies programme.

 

“I won’t venture into child protection and children’s social services, where simply providing an adequate service, let alone engaging in transformational change, has proved beyond the city.”

 

He goes on to suggest three solutions: A new directly elected mayor, a high speed rail link and fully engaging in the Government’s academy programme.

 

But is this enough? Having just returned from Sheffield at the weekend (where I used to live) and having also lived in Birmingham two things strike me. The first is that over the last ten years both cities (or at least there centres) have been transformed. No longer are they depressing remnants of former industrial glory. They are exciting, vibrant and modern – with lots of new (and well designed) buildings as well as some stunning renovation work. Labour may not a have fixed the roof while the sun was shining – but they certainly built a nice conservatory.

 

But the second thing is all this was based on the public sector. Growing universities, a well funded NHS – and yes even the smoking cessation advisors helped keep the city growing and supporting private service sector: the nice restaurants and shops were all basically surviving off the state.

 

And now that is all over – and I fear the future for both Birmingham and Sheffield is bleak. In order to get through without a serious economic downturn they need to attract new industries and investment fast: but they do not in the main have highly skilled workers or the infrastructure within local government capable of doing the job.

 

High speed rail might help (in the long term) so might directly elected mayors and of course education is key. But I fear while Adonis is right in his diagnosis of the problems facing Birmingham and other cities – it is far from clear that the drugs will work.

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Isn't that 14 extra? One every two days.

 

Perhaps not such a bloodbath.

 

Right you are. But that assumes NO SALES

If you assume 15-20 sales, it looks more like one added per day.

 

And that is also per AE branch - so that's quite a monumental RUSH to sell.

Hey, I didn't write that!

 

All I wrote was the first two lines?????

 

What's going on mods?

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I got some figures for you, in Birmingham 1 in 4 are inactive, 1 in 10 un-employed, this before the council or government swing the axe which is going to affect Brum particularly bad.

Perhaps some of the guys in Brum should write a song about that.. Oh wait a minute :D

 

Disclaimer if seen in bad taste. I was one of the one in ten back when the original came out, even met Ali Campbell once at Paddy Lynch’s boxing gym (Errol Christie days). Seemed an OK guy.

 

To be honest, the situation in Brum wasn't much better even between the two recessions. One of the reasons we left the midlands.

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Hey, I didn't write that!

All I wrote was the first two lines?????

What's going on mods?

Apologies from me. Nothing sinister is going on.

I hit the edit button, rather than the Reply button. A simple error (happens once in a while)

I shall fix it

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Isn't that 14 extra? One every two days.

Perhaps not such a bloodbath.

Right you are. But that assumes NO SALES

If you assume 15-20 sales, it looks more like one added per day.

 

And that is also per AE branch - so that's quite a monumental RUSH to sell.

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Apologies from me. Nothing sinister is going on.

I hit the edit button, rather than the Reply button. A simple error (happens once in a while)

I shall fix it

No problem, thought it might be something like that.

 

Although, you had me worried for a moment. I know I'm in two minds about some things, but for a moment it looked like they had gone their own separate ways :lol:

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Perhaps some of the guys in Brum should write a song about that.. Oh wait a minute :D

 

Disclaimer if seen in bad taste. I was one of the one in ten back when the original came out, even met Ali Campbell once at Paddy Lynch’s boxing gym (Errol Christie days). Seemed an OK guy.

 

To be honest, the situation in Brum wasn't much better even between the two recessions. One of the reasons we left the midlands.

 

I have a lot of respect for UB40, they always stuck around Birmingham and still have a recording studio in Birmingham today. The pub where the video for Red Red Wine was filmed and also 1 in 10 was written is going to auction next month

 

http://www.pennycuick.co.uk/

 

I don't think Birmingham suffered any worse than other areas in previous recessions because of the manufacturing base, but that has now gone with an over reliance on public sector which is about to get axed, Birmingham is going to suffer bad this time as the figures are already showing.

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I have a lot of respect for UB40, they always stuck around Birmingham and still have a recording studio in Birmingham today. The pub where the video for Red Red Wine was filmed and also 1 in 10 was written is going to auction next month

 

http://www.pennycuick.co.uk/

 

I don't think Birmingham was that bad before, remember we had a large manufacturing industry which has now pretty much gone.

I was talking about the mid 80's, Handsworth etc. It was a bit of a mess for a while. I worked in Sheldon for a while and you could practically guarantee witnessing a mugging or a fight once a week from the bus into town, the 159 IIRC, later became the 900. The swan at yardley usually had a good fight going on).

 

Yes, they were at the gym that day as they were going to use it for the Please don’t make me cry" video.

 

Ah Labour of love, what an album!

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I got some figures for you, in Birmingham 1 in 4 are inactive, 1 in 10 un-employed, this before the council or government swing the axe which is going to affect Brum particularly bad.

 

Make no mistake house prices in Birmingham are going to fall, what happens in your area i couldn't give a flying, your children are welcome to it.

 

http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2011/03/15/why-birmingham-is-in-crisis-and-its-future-bleak/

 

You, like so many people, misunderstand me.

 

I want house prices to fall - for my children's sake. And I'm sure that in some areas of Birmingham prices have fallen and will fall further.

 

What I find I can't do is read that estate agents have a few more properties on their books and assume we're going to get what we want.

 

We want I am afraid unless people take some action.

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I was talking about the mid 80's, Handsworth etc. It was a bit of a mess for a while. I worked in Sheldon for a while and you could practically guarantee witnessing a mugging or a fight once a week from the bus into town, the 159 IIRC, later became the 900. The swan at yardley usually had a good fight going on).

 

Yes, they were at the gym that day as they were going to use it for the Please don’t make me cry" video.

 

Ah Labour of love, what an album!

 

Handsworth has always been a slum and always will be, but funny enough when HPI was in full force, Handsworth property prices still increased by the same percentage as the rest of Birmingham. Why's that when it's a ghetto? When prices start tanking again falls will start in the shite holes then spread and drag down the nice areas, just like the ghetto's benefited on the way up.

 

I'm currently living in Great Barr/ Kingstanding border, not sure if you know it. Anyway the Co Op local is getting robbed on a weekly basis, went in there last night they have clear plastic screens put up at the counters now and i joked with the cashier they will be coming in with guns soon. The Tesco local not far away is a similar story, the last time they cut a hole through the floor of the upstairs flat to gain entry.

 

No jobs for the plebs, they will take what they need,more than likely target the nice areas and who can blame them i certainly can't.

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Handsworth has always been a slum

 

My OH says you are obviously not old enough to know when it was far from being a slum!

He also lived in the G.Barr, near Kingstanding until '68 & asked which road you lived in.

 

-------------

 

The Adonis person is also a youngster it seems.

 

The first is that over the last ten years both cities (or at least there centres) have been transformed. No longer are they depressing remnants of former industrial glory.

 

Brum centre was full of glorious architecture until the 60s spiv developers & corrupt council did their worst.

Beeching did his worst too. The demolition of the hotel at Snow Hill station was another crime.

 

Rant over. - Brum is over too. Time to run, if one can.

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My OH says you are obviously not old enough to know when it was far from being a slum!

He also lived in the G.Barr, near Kingstanding until '68 & asked which road you lived in.

 

-------------

 

The Adonis person is also a youngster it seems.

 

 

 

Brum centre was full of glorious architecture until the 60s spiv developers & corrupt council did their worst.

Beeching did his worst too. The demolition of the hotel at Snow Hill station was another crime.

 

Rant over. - Brum is over too. Time to run, if one can.

 

Yes your correct Handsworth was a nice area, but way before my time as i'm 39, ive always known it as a ghetto. Can you ask the OH what areas where regarded slums then?

 

Currently living just of Dyas Road on Elliston Avenue. Raised in Pype Hayes though just off Paget Road and that's where i'm heading back to.

 

Why do you think the government are trying to push through the high speed rail link, they know it's critical to Birmingham, without it brum will be one big ghetto.

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I'm currently living in Great Barr/ Kingstanding border, not sure if you know it. Anyway the Co Op local is getting robbed on a weekly basis, went in there last night they have clear plastic screens put up at the counters now and i joked with the cashier they will be coming in with guns soon. The Tesco local not far away is a similar story, the last time they cut a hole through the floor of the upstairs flat to gain entry.

 

No jobs for the plebs, they will take what they need,more than likely target the nice areas and who can blame them i certainly can't.

No, not well. Mainly lived worked in Coventry in those days. Although, worked next door in Castle Vale once (putting windows above the drying areas in the flats - and same job in Chelmsley Wood). Always made sure we got there first thing in the morning so we could escape before the locals woke up mid afternoon :D

 

They even used to knick the offcuts!

 

As far as I remember they never targeted the nice areas back in the last big recession as they knew the law would go all out to catch them if they did. Back home, they also knew the law never bothered too much about the crime on our estate. Also, most of the guys (I knew of) never went much further than about 1/2 mile when out "on the mooch". I always figured there would be real problems if they ever got organised.

 

Same thing with the houses etc. A terrace back home couldn't be sold for £7000 in 1995. At peak they were ~£100k! Recently they were going for £75k. A 25% fall, but still way way overpriced. I agree that these will be the ones hardest hit.

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Yes your correct Handsworth was a nice area, but way before my time as i'm 39, ive always known it as a ghetto. Can you ask the OH what areas where regarded slums then?

 

Currently living just of Dyas Road on Elliston Avenue. Raised in Pype Hayes though just off Paget Road and that's where i'm heading back to.

 

Why do you think the government are trying to push through the high speed rail link, they know it's critical to Birmingham, without it brum will be one big ghetto.

 

Hi Neil. I lived in Southgate Rd. Had an 'aunt & uncle' in Dyas Rd. I don't remember that many slums. Only one school friend I knew lived without a bathroom with a shared toilet at the bottom of the garden. He only had a five min. walk to school (KEGS), whereas I had two bus rides. The family were moved out to a high-rise at Newtown in 67/68. Baldwin House, which I think was built on a slum clearance site? In my case & i guess with most kids, you tend to go between home, school & friends & only see those areas.

I recall thinking how crummy Nechelles & Alum Rock were. Also how bleak the Chelmsley Wood new housing area was.

Then of course we had the Black Country. A different world with (at that time) it's own dialects. I completely failed to get off with a gorgeous lass from Tipton, mostly because I couldn't understand half of what she said! (yes yes, it's a feeble excuse)

Re the rail link. What is it supposed to achieve, unless the fares are cheap (joke), & there are plenty of private sector real jobs in London?

In the quality of life/cost stakes things are not looking good there.

Regards.

Richard (the long suffering lesser half ;) )

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I'm waiting to buy a house in one of the less crimey bits of Brum (Sutton) so bring it on!

BTW: What sort of prices are you seeing (per square foot)?

I won't be buying, I'm just curious.

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BTW: What sort of prices are you seeing (per square foot)?

I won't be buying, I'm just curious.

 

 

I'm a Handsworth lad!! Thankfully I moved to London when I was 0 years old.

 

My Cousin live in Sutton ColdField Brum, the ppsf is around half of that of London and IMO represents good value as the houses in this area are large and you get a lot of outside space, I've often thought that if London ppsf was the same I would have no issue with buyingc

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I'm a Handsworth lad!! Thankfully I moved to London when I was 0 years old.

 

My Cousin live in Sutton ColdField Brum, the ppsf is around half of that of London and IMO represents good value as the houses in this area are large and you get a lot of outside space, I've often thought that if London ppsf was the same I would have no issue with buyingc

 

Good value to who, people who work and earn in London or people who work and earn in brum.

 

If London falls by 50%, Sutton will also, but i agree i would have no issue with buying then also.

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A friend has just won a sealed bid on a nice house in a N Oxfordshire village. Several bidders, all cash. All at or above asking. House listed 10 days ago.

 

Definite two tier market. Most places that are normally bought with a mortgage are sticking and dropping. Anything decent sells for cash and goes in a blink at or above asking.

 

Straight from the horses mouth.

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the psychology expressed here suggests to me that the uk property market is nowhere near a low

 

where's the fear?

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