UK House prices: News & Views

[drbubb]

My bills this month:

Electric - 500

Water - 85

Gas - 40 (est)

Sewerage (a vacuum tanker turns up - 100

Council tax - 0

Rent - 0 (self-build)

Internet - 695

Kurtz, are you joking about that internet expense?

 

How high are you in relation to sea level? Any tsunami risk?

[drbubb]

Depends on your circumstances, nowheres ever perfect.

 

I have friends here that earn around 800 Pounds a month (which is less than their Thai colleagues) as teachers and are way, way better off than if they lived in the UK where there's no work anyway and life is a claustrophobic misery of dominant corrupt government, nasty insecure workplaces and seemingly endless cost. One also has a restaurant here (he's a well to do type from Kendal and loathes the UK, passionately). Another a hotel (a Thai family built for him!) on an island.

 

All are in their 50's. All have been out here over ten years, some for over twenty years.

 

The UK's quite shit to be honest. I don't say this with emotion or malice towards the UK, just observation.

 

I think the British love to tell themselves how lucky they are without knowing much about the rest of the world.

Yup.

But what will happen to you if they suddenly decide they want foreigners to leave?

[Kurtz]

Kurtz, are you joking about that internet expense?

 

How high are you in relation to sea level? Any tsunami risk?

 

That's in Thai Baht. No, those are my bills. We don't have phone lines here so the only option is a USB 2G stick. If I had a phone line I'd have 2-6MB broadband for around half that.

 

Way above sea level. 500 metres at a guess. No tsunami risk.

[Kurtz]

Yup.

But what will happen to you if they suddenly decide they want foreigners to leave?

 

Real risk of that.

[Kurtz]

Are these figures £'s or THB? I assume THB as internet can't cost £700 per month. If THB this is unbeiveably cheap as £'s would be (assuming £1000 = 50,000thb:-

 

Electric - £10

Water - £2

Gas - £5 (est)

Sewerage (a vacuum tanker turns up - £2

Council tax - 0

Rent - 0 (self-build)

Internet - £12

 

 

Surely these costs aren't correct. Is the 50,000thb = £1000 incorrect?

 

edit: just checked exchange rate and £1000 is 48k thb so close enough!

 

All these are in THB and correct.

 

Yesterday I got the electric bill, it was 524 Baht.

[drbubb]

Yup.

But what will happen to you if they suddenly decide they want foreigners to leave?

Youy've seen the Costa Rica thread.

Maybe you should start a thread like that about where you live.

Or would you rather keep it a secret

[Kurtz]

Youy've seen the Costa Rica thread.

Maybe you should start a thread like that about where you live.

Or would you rather keep it a secret

 

It would awfully dull. Seriously, nothing happens here. It's sedate beyond comatose.

 

It's development is interesting though. When I first came here near ten years ago it was the third world. Really was. But now the roads are paved (apart from farm tracks), electricity and water show a stable supply where before the electric would be out twice or thrice a day for hours and in the summer we could go a week or so without water.

 

Houses are being built and painted!!! People have trucks and cars (not that keen on that bit). Some people are positively wealthy.

 

Socially, the place has stopped drinking, used to be terrible alcoholism here. We now have weekly waste collection proper bin lorry. It's all quite pleasant.

 

But get this. Up on the hill over yonder a whole bunch of electric wind turbines are planned for local supply. Regionally the Mekong river is being dammed up with some 20 or so 1GW hydroelectric dams.

 

Here's a few pics, I'll add more sometime.

 

Flickr

[John Doe]

Nationwide up 0.5% (NSA up 2.2%!).

 

Crash cruise speed cancelled.

 

Never underestimate the UK public.

[G0ldfinger]

...

Never underestimate the UK public.

Yes, as Einstein said, he is not so sure whether the universe is infinite...

[neil324]

Real risk of that.

 

You think so.

 

I can see them changing the loop hole of land inside a company.

 

You any good at speaking Thai?

[Kurtz]

Nationwide up 0.5% (NSA up 2.2%!).

 

Crash cruise speed cancelled.

 

Never underestimate the UK public.

 

Never underestimate a central bank with a printing press in an economy based on real estate.

 

How much are houses in Zimbabwe, measured in Zim Dollars or whatever they're called?

[BoldAsBrass]

Of course you do. You prefer UK in large part because the printing of pounds since 1970s has overwhelming benefited your generation at the expense of all those coming after. If I bought a house for a few grand years ago I’d prefer it too. You don’t accept that the another ‘half’ have to endure shuffling from one outrageously privately rented property every few years or face ridiculous mortgages precisely because of this situation you benefit from.

 

I quite liked the UK in the 1960s too.

 

I do of course accept that your generation has been shafted to the benefit of mine. On a macro level there is nothing I can do about it. On a micro level I'm going to sell up in a few years and split half the proceeds of the house sale and give it to my two sons. What else can I do? If, on the other hand, in the meantime house prices go down by 50% it will have the same affect as far as I, and my sons, are concerned. Either way I am not going to benefit much. Something I realised a long time ago is that the only people who benefit - always - are the bankers. From cradle to grave they hitch a ride on your back.

 

Notwithstanding all that, the fact is that we are where we are. £Billions have been created out of thin air and lent into the property market. A considerable percentage of the population have bought into the nonsense over the last 10 years and have large mortgages.

 

What is the way out? A large correction in house prices will take the banking system down and the economy with it.

 

Strikes me that inflation is the way out. At the moment price inflation without wage inflation seems to be the worst of all possible worlds so, for your generation, things seem (unbelievably) to be getting worse. I do think it is time your voices were heard. Most people still have no idea and mutter platitudes like 'it's always been hard to get on the housing ladder'. That is, of couse, nonsense. When I bought my first place in the 1970s I borrowed twice my salary to buy a flat in West London which now would cost 10 times the average salary - more probably. And I bought it on my own - no need for anyone else's earnings to be taken into account and I was only earning average money at the time.

 

As an aside - I do wonder where this country would be now if we hadn't had the borrowing binge. There is no doubt it creates jobs and demand but, of course, it can't go on forever. It probably masked this country's transition away from manufacturing and 'real' jobs - but, what now? If no-one borrows to extend their house, buy a car, pay for a wedding, build a conservatory, new carpets, holiday etc. etc. - where is employment going to come from?

 

Clearly we need a structural change to the economy - can't see where/how/when that is going to happen.

[frizzers]

Well, Thailand - Chang Mai - is where Marc Faber chose ...

[Kurtz]

You think so.

 

I can see them changing the loop hole of land inside a company.

 

You any good at speaking Thai?

 

 

Not brilliant but improving, the five intonations are the killer.

 

All in the kids name. The company thing was always ridiculous. Once that old boy goes, we've got real problems here.

[Kurtz]

Well, Thailand - Chang Mai - is where Marc Faber chose ...

 

I do wish he'd stop going on about bar girls when interviewed in the telly it's embarrassing.

[neil324]

Not brilliant but improving, the five intonations are the killer.

 

All in the kids name. The company thing was always ridiculous. Once that old boy goes, we've got real problems here.

 

I thought it was 6, that's what makes it hard for us it's tonal were not used to that.

 

I don't think i could ever learn it myself. Took me a couple of 4 month trips to get the hang of the masculin and feminin basics.

[Kurtz]

I quite liked the UK in the 1960s too.

 

I do of course accept that your generation has been shafted to the benefit of mine. On a macro level there is nothing I can do about it. On a micro level I'm going to sell up in a few years and split half the proceeds of the house sale and give it to my two sons. What else can I do? If, on the other hand, in the meantime house prices go down by 50% it will have the same affect as far as I, and my sons, are concerned. Either way I am not going to benefit much.

 

Notwithstanding all that, the fact is that we are where we are. £Billions have been created out of thin air and lent into the property market. A considerable percentage of the population have bought into the nonsense over the last 10 years and have large mortgages.

 

What is the way out? A large correction in house prices will take the banking system down and the economy with it.

 

Strikes me that inflation is the way out. At the moment price inflation without wage inflation seems to be the worst of all possible worlds so, for your generation, things seem (unbelievably) to be getting worse. I do think it is time your voices were heard. Most people still have no idea and mutter platitudes like 'it's always been hard to get on the housing ladder'. That is, of couse, nonsense. When I bought my first place in the 1970s I borrowed twice my salary to buy a flat in West London which now would cost 10 times the average salary - more probably. And I bought it on my own - no need for anyone else's earnings to be taken into account and I was only earning average money at the time.

 

As an aside - I do wonder where this country would be now if we hadn't had the borrowing binge. There is no doubt it creates jobs and demand but, of course, it can't go on forever. It probably masked this country's transition away from manufacturing and 'real' jobs - but, what now? If no-one borrows to extend their house, buy a car, pay for a wedding, build a conservatory, new carpets, holiday etc. etc. - where is employment going to come from?

 

Clearly we need a structural change to the economy - can't see where/how/when that is going to happen.

 

You need both the Pound and land prices to crash and complete default to happen. You need to clean politics of the likes of Ed Balls, George Osborne and the rest. Bizarre ideology meets corrupt vested interests.

 

Interesting anecdote from a friend that owns a carpet shop on the south coast. He says sales are good . . . at the bottom end, the welfare claimant coming in with 250 quid and at the top end, Axminster and Jaccaranda costing thousands for the London elite. Nothing at all in the middle.

[Kurtz]

I thought it was 6, that's what makes it hard for us it's tonal were not used to that.

 

I don't think i could ever learn it myself. Took me a couple of 4 month trips to get the hang of the masculin and feminin basics.

 

Malaysia's your best bet. Mentioned this to Bubb earlier.

[neil324]

Nationwide up 0.5% (NSA up 2.2%!).

 

Crash cruise speed cancelled.

 

Never underestimate the UK public.

 

Maybe the stamp duty changes next month having an affect, Halifax and next months figures can validate. Nationwide do have a south focus.

 

Past caring myself, going to focus my energy on other things now. No way was prices 2.2% up in my area

[drbubb]

Malaysia's your best bet. Mentioned this to Bubb earlier.

Yeah,

we are looking at Malaysia.

 

We came very close to buying a new property in Mont Kiara last week.

In the end, I decided to try for a lower price, and the developer lost interest in talking to me.

 

It was a nice looking property, but Malaysia's long cycle should peak in 2011-12, per my charts:

 

Here was my "best guess" on how the 18 year cycle might be applied in Penang, Malaysia.

 

In KL, it looks like the cycle peaked about 3 years earlier, in 2008. Normally, the cycle requires at least 3-4 years off the top, to make a low. So we could see a bottom as early as 2011-12.

Instead, it looks like it rode up to a new high.

 

I am moving the Kuala Lumpur thread to Main, for a brief time.

 

Should we start a Thai thread ?

[BoldAsBrass]

You need both the Pound and land prices to crash and complete default to happen. You need to clean politics of the likes of Ed Balls, George Osborne and the rest. Bizarre ideology meets corrupt vested interests.

 

I agree - but what are the chances of that happening? Pretty low I'd say. As well as cleaning politics - I'd like to clean the world of bankers. They are the real culprits in all this. They've created money out of thin air, lent it by the truckload and, when it all went wrong, held us all to ransom. Now, still, and for the next 25 years, they will be collecting the interest on the money they lent and collecting their mega bonuses while the rest of us slog along hoping for continued employment and coping with ever increasing prices.

 

Interesting anecdote from a friend that owns a carpet shop on the south coast. He says sales are good . . . at the bottom end, the welfare claimant coming in with 250 quid and at the top end, Axminster and Jaccaranda costing thousands for the London elite. Nothing at all in the middle.

 

As you say - an interesting anecdote. In my area I tend to gauge things by the state of the pubs and restaurants. Walk into my local town on a Friday or Saturday night and they're all still heaving. Maybe we're all still living in a fool's paradise and the axe is yet to fall.

[drbubb]

Nationwide up 0.5% (NSA up 2.2%!).

Crash cruise speed cancelled.

Never underestimate the UK public.

Please !

ON PAUSE, not "cancelled."

 

Property prices are still down on a 6 months horizon. This is within the range of a "normal seasonal bounce" so far.

 

UK Builder prices have been giving a warning for weeks that some sort of "pause" may be coming.

[drbubb]

SOBRIETY CONTINUES in this report from Hometrack, which was also released today:

 

London first region to register price rise for 8 months

Time on market suggest pricing across most regions to remain weak

By Richard Donnell, Director of Research, Hometrack

 

Summary- - - - - - - - - - : Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

Monthly price change (%) - 0.5% - 0.2% - 0.1%

% change in new buyers

.registering with agents... - 9.5% +14.7% + 4.2%

% change in volume

.of property listings......... - 5.4% + 7.5% + 5.2%

 

Note: Supply rose faster than Demand, despite the season

 

Results

 

The number of buyers registering with agents has been positive for the second month in a row, growing by 4.2% over March.

This is a slower increase compared to the strong seasonal pick up seen in February, but it is consistent with the level of growth seen over the same month in previous years.

 

The volume of sales agreed grew by 12.6% over March following a 25.4% increase in February. However, this figure comes off a low base. Adverse weather and the seasonal slowdown which characterised December and January resulted in low levels of sales agreed.

Despite increased demand and rising sales volumes, average prices fell by 0.1% over March. The average price of a property is now £153,100.

 

The year on year growth rate stands at -3.2%.

 

Prices were down across 27% of the country in March while 8% of the country posted price rises.

London registered the first monthly increase in prices for 8 months on the back of rising demand and dwindling supply. Central London was the primary driver of a 0.2% increase in prices across the capital.

 

Across all other regions prices moved lower by between 0.1% and 0.3%. House prices in the South West were unchanged.

The time on the market stands at 9.9 weeks but in three regions the average is over 3 months. In two other regions it is just under 3 months.

 

Rising sales volumes have led to a firming in underlying pricing levels with the proportion of the asking price rising from 91.9% in January to 92.7% in March. Despite this improvement the proportion of the asking price achieved is still down on the level seen 12 months ago (94%).

 

The supply of housing continues to grow on the back of improved levels of market activity. Listings were up 5.2% in March - greater than the growth in demand over the month. Continued expansion on new supply over the coming months could put pricing under further pressure.

 

/more: http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20110331.cfm

[John Doe]

Please !

ON PAUSE, not "cancelled."

 

Property prices are still down on a 6 months horizon. This is within the range of a "normal seasonal bounce" so far.

 

But prices are up on a 12 month horizon, (and have risen 3 out of the last 4 months).

 

So the data can be reported however you like, but sometimes you just have to admit that the UK is weird.

 

(Also note the NSA figure, quite a revision downwards )

 

UK Builder prices have been giving a warning for weeks that some sort of "pause" may be coming.

 

Pause or perhaps something more? Your builders index is showing a soft landing is it not?

 

Of course, in real terms we will still get the ~10% down expected.

[Kurtz]

Yeah,

we are looking at Malaysia.

 

We came very close to buying a new property in Mont Kiara last week.

In the end, I decided to try for a lower price, and the developer lost interest in talking to me.

 

It was a nice looking property, but Malaysia's long cycle should peak in 2011-12, per my charts:

 

 

Instead, it looks like it rode up to a new high.

 

I am moving the Kuala Lumpur thread to Main, for a brief time.

 

Should we start a Thai thread ?

 

Don't bother with a Thailand thread. You can never own land here as a foreigner. So there's no point. Go on Thai Visa and read countless horror stories, many ending in murder/suicide.

 

It is the best place to rent though. But I still say, Malaysia.