UK House prices: News & Views

[Chartered Surveyor]

I need to develop my thought process further from my last comment. The bottom line can be expressed by a number of lines from John Lennons' song Working Class Hero

Keep you doped with religion and sex and TV

And you think you're so clever and classless and free

But you're still fucking peasants as far as I can see

 

There's room at the top they are telling you still

But first you must learn how to smile as you kill

If you want to be like the folks on the hill

A working class hero is something to be

 

OK.... What does all this mean. Well for a kick off lets keep this simple. This is thread is about me me me, or what you should do. Its all about being selfish now. Forget......... we are all in this together.

 

 

The system is totally broken and there is no solution. The powers that be do not know what do do. That is the bottom line.

 

There are good guys and there bad guys in life and the simple conclusion is that the bad guys are calling the shots. The sysytem is not fair and never has been. The answer is look after number one or your family.

 

There are a number of threads on this forum about developing commmunity. This is a must. For those that can bread, build the biggest family you can. Strength in numbers is natures way of being a strong unit. You may say you cannot aford to do this in the Western world, .......RUBBISH you can build a strong family unit as this will be key for the future.

 

Governments are turnng in on its people. Martin Armstrong for me is a great Historian and like all cycles has recognised a similar pattern from the past that echo;s today.

 

So what can we do. Well this essay is NOT the answer, but only a suggestion.

 

1) Council Tax............if you can make savings on this I would welcome comments to challenge the system. There are a number of web sites trying this as to the validity of a private company extracting money from you.

 

2) All of you should immediately cancel your TV licence. Get rid of you TV or tune out of receiving live propaganda data. Starve the BBC (PRADA), of their income. Do not be afraid to do so and do not be afraid of the threating letters from ther sub contracting firm the BBC employers to get £140pa from you. That is money better served for your family.

 

3) Get out of PAYE. A new thread is required here as to how to go about this.

 

4) Develop a secondary core business along side you main profession. Eg You may enjoy playng the guiter .......well gig and make a few bob doing so, or whaterver your hobby is develop this further and make money.

 

5) If you can afford to buy now with minimal debt then do so and it gett on with with you life.. If you have bought reduce you debt now as much as youy can.

 

6) Grow your own food ........ Benefits its own thread.

 

 

Bottom line ........... enjoy the fruits of your labour outside the sytem legally, and pay no tax. What you make earn you keep........ypu have all been shafted for to long.

 

Im tired and late and can not be bothered to check my spelling etc

 

[drbubb]

I like it, CS.

 

We need a new thread:

Freedom is... Starving the Monster

While exiting "the system"

 

Or something like that - Your own title could easily be better

 

Can you start it, using the post above?

 

I will happily contribye

[John Doe]

Hometrack out....

 

House prices are likely to continue falling for the rest of 2012 as growth in the number of homes for sale outstrips potential buyers, a study says.

 

At the same time, a separate study has found mortgage payments as a percentage of disposable income have dropped to a 15-year low.

 

Average house prices fell by 0.1% in August, the same as in July, and prices are likely to drop further as the market remains fragile and volatile, property analyst Hometrack said.

 

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-mortgage-costs-falling-090413991.html

[drbubb]

WEAK DEMAND, despite lower mortgage payments (due to financial repression):

 

Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, said: "The balance between housing demand and supply is widening, suggesting further downward pressure on prices.

 

"Demand is up by 10% over the year to date while supply has grown by 19%."

 

Meanwhile, Halifax has mortgage costs at a 15-year low, with typical payments for both first-time buyers and home movers taking out a new loan at 26% of take-home pay in the second quarter of this year.

 

Affordability has significantly improved in each of the UK's 12 regions since 2007 and typical mortgage payments as a proportion of earnings have seen the biggest falls in Northern Ireland, where they have dropped by around two thirds.

 

Payments have nearly halved in Wales, Yorkshire and the Humber, and Scotland since the peak of the market five years ago, according to the findings.

 

The study put the increased affordability down to static and falling house prices coupled with low mortgage rates by long-term standards as the Bank of England maintains the base rate at a historic 0.5% low.

 

Even in London, where house prices have remained relatively strong due to strong overseas buyer demand, potential payments for a new borrower have reached around 35% of disposable earnings compared with 56% five years ago.

[wednesday2]

More from Mr. Mortgage Mark Hanson:

 

8-28 On Case-Shiller House Price Reality (No Mainstream Spin)

by MARK on AUGUST 28, 2012

Summary

 

When…

 

1) rates drop by 30% YoY allowing the 70% of buyers who use a mortgage to ‘pay’ 15% more for a house on the same monthly payment;

 

2) foreclosures as a percentage of total sales drop 25% YoY lifting the “median” sale price:

 

3) and you comp YoY against a stimulus hangover year;

 

…”prices paid” will ‘rise’ and ‘comps’ will look great. But the benefits of stimulus and easy comps will soon turn into headwinds and difficult comps, which is exactly what happened in 2011 following the year+ long home buyer tax credit stimulus pump of 2009/10. Once again, people are mistaking stimulus for durable fundamentals, which has been a consistent problem since housing’s first dead cat bounce on QE in 2009.

 

This morning Case-Shiller revealed one of the most known known’s in housing; that from 7 to 5 months ago (from Feb to April 2012) the price at which people ‘contracted’ to ‘pay’ for houses increased at the median YoY by ~1% from the severe hangover period from Feb to April 2011 when rates were 150-bps higher and foreclosures as a percentage of total sales 33% greater. Feb through April escrows with 30 to 60 closing periods would have closed from April through June and are now being reported at the end of August as something meaningful. It’s incredible really.

...

 

http://mhanson.com/archives/1027

[BoldAsBrass]

Well, well - house next door to my brother's just sold (well, okay, Under Offer). But went 'Under Offer' within a week following an 'open evening' where he reckons about 5 people viewed. 80k more than he paid for his identical house (admittedly, needing 20k spent on it) 2 years ago.

 

This house price crash - there seems to be very little evidence of it in London (where I work sometimes), the South East (where I live) and the South West (where I visit regularly).

 

It just ain't happening.

[Jake]

It depends what you mean. Nominal or gold(real) prices. I recently paid 50k of 2004 gold prices for a gbp C200k house.

Maybe it 'just ain't happening' in nominal pounds just yet. But I think it will. As do I think I 'overpaid' in gold. But sometimes you have to do what you have to do. I had little choice.

[John Doe]

 

House prices in the UK rose by 1.3% month-on-month in August, according to the latest data made available by mortgage lender Nationwide.

 

 

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-prices-rose-most-064620015.html

[drbubb]

A bit of a shocker (especially after the Rightmove declines)

 

Despite UK house prices rising by 1.3 per cent in August to £164,729, house prices are still 0.7 per cent lower than one year ago, data from Nationwide has revealed.

 

Data from Nationwide’s monthly house price index showed August’s rise was the largest monthly increase since January 2010, reversing the declines recorded in the previous two months.

 

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, was surprised by this rebound, “given the difficult economic backdrop”, but warned that too much should not be read into monthly price changes as these can be impacted by a number of one-off factors

 

/more:

http://www.ftadviser.com/2012/08/31/investments/economic-indicators/nationwide-reports-largest-house-price-increase-since-YmL3CJUa3fgDz0iB1NlsXI/article.html

[Garincho]

Isn't the NSA figure for the Nationwide only a rise of 0.2%? That's what it says in the comments section of HPC but I've not checked the figures.

 

If it is 0.2% then that's not much and it's probably London and the south that accounted for the rise, us northeners probably saw further falls this month.

[drbubb]

Isn't the NSA figure for the Nationwide only a rise of 0.2%?

That's what it says in the comments section of HPC but I've not checked the figures.

If it is 0.2% then that's not much and it's probably London and the south that accounted for the rise, us northeners probably saw further falls this month.

True

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg / Nt'wide : H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2012

J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% :

F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% :

M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% :

A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : 152,815 : +0.63% / 164,134 = n/a = 159,883 161,180 : £162,657 : - 0.44% :149.8% :

M : : 243,759 : 469,314 : 152,803 : - 0.01% / 166,022 = n/a = 160,941 161,785 : £163,904 : +0.77% :148.7% :

J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 : 153,332 : +0.35% / 165,738 = n/a = 162,417 163,240 : £164,489 : +0.36% :149.7% :

Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 : 151,633 : - 1.11% / 164,389 = n/a = 161,094 162,619 : £163,504 : - 0.60% :148.1% :

A : : 236,260 : 454,875 : == ? == : =n/a= / 164,729 = n/a =

======================================

mom:- 2.41% : - 1.18% : Est.DI :: 144.5% / +0.21% = n/a = :- 0.81% : - 0.38% : - 0.60% :

 

But this is normally a weak month, so the upmove is surprizing, and Rightmove was down over 2%

[John Doe]

But this is normally a weak month, so the upmove is surprizing, and Rightmove was down over 2%

 

Indeed it is, but I'm guessing the NW sample size is really small.

 

I also think the Land Reg, (although somewhat delayed) is still the only really reliable measure nowadays.

[drbubb]

NEW HIGH for the year in BDEV: 157.23P / BDEV-chart

 

The volume looks decent, and PSN is also banging up to near highs

[John Doe]

NEW HIGH for the year in BDEV: 157.23P / BDEV-chart

 

The volume looks decent, and PSN is also banging up to new highs

 

Yep, another day and another round of government action interference

[drbubb]

Knight Frank has its own Index for Prime Central London Property

 

Not surprisingly, it shows big increases since 2009, and also reflects a market they say is at Record Highs

 

HIGHLIGHTS

 

Prime central London prices hit new high but pace of growth slows

 

Prices are now more than 13% higher than the previous market peak in early 2008, but stamp duty and the uncertainty surrounding proposed tax changes for houses worth £2m+ begin to weigh on the market.

 

Key Findings

 

+ Prime central London property prices rose 0.5% in July, taking annual growth to 10.3%

 

+ Prices have now risen by 49% since the post credit-crunch low in March 2009

 

+ Prices are at a new record high and are 13.5% above their previous peak in

March 2008

 

+ Properties in the lower price bands have outperformed in recent months

====

/The Index: http://project.knightfrank.com.hk/xmasref/marketing/reports/reports/PrimeCentralLondonSalesIndex_2012july.pdf

[drbubb]

Why London's Luxury Property Market is set to Boom

 

Crazy, misleading headline !

Why do they make headlines like this AFTER something has already happened?

Is it to signal to the savy, that then trend is ending??

 

http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2012-09-03/why-londons-luxury-property-market-is-set-to-boom

 

The story itself shows a despicable Estate Agent pumping "high end" London, while the reporter talks about plans to "keep on building", 15,000 new Luxury properties, in Central London. Sounds more like the End of a Boom, rather than the beginning of one.

[drbubb]

Knight Frank vs. Rightmove

 

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Kfpc-A : KfPrime :

2009:

J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 / 314,125 : 3,769.5 :

F : : 216,163 : 387,988 / 309,442 : 3,713.0 :

M : : 218,081 : 398,867 / 304,350 : 3,652.2 :

A : : 222,077 : 387,161 / 305,525 : 3,666.3 :

M : : 227,441 : 397,646 / 310,492 : 3,725.9 :

J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 / 315,750 : 3,789.0 :

Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 / 320,542 : 3,846.5 :

A : : 222,762 : 387,265 / 323,858 : 3,886.3 :

S : : 223,996 : 390,768 / 328,142 : 3,937.7 :

O : : 230,184 : 416,157 / 335,000 : 4,020.0 :

N : : 226,440 : 403,069 / 338,933 : 4,067.2 :

D : : 221,463 : 398,426 / 346,217 : 4,154.6 :

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Kfpc-A : KfPrime :

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 / 350,100 : 4,201.2 :

F : : 229,398 : 427,987 / 361,233 : 4,334.8 :

M : : 229,614 : 417,461 / 363,917 : 4,367.0 :

A : : 235,512 : 421,822 / 368,808 : 4,425.7 :

M : : 237,134 : 420,203 / 373,975 : 4,487.7 :

J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 / 377,200 : 4,526.4 :

Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 / 375,500 : 4,506.0 :

A : : 232,241 : 405,058 / 375,325 : 4,503.9 :

S : : 229,767 : 399,019 / 374,675 : 4,496.1 :

O : : 236,849 : 418,778 / 373,808 : 4,485.7 :

N : : 229,379 : 417,279 / 377,025 : 4,524.3 :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 / 381,992 : 4,583.9 :

 

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 / 386,142 : 4,633.7 :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 / 389,975 : 4,679.7 :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 / 395,208 : 4,742.5 :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 / 399,233 : 4,790.8 :

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 / 404,742 : 4,856.9 :

J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 / 408,558 : 4,902.7 :

Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 / 411,417 : 4,937.0 :

A : : 231,543 : 418,008 / 414,925 : 4,979.1 :

S : : 233.139 : 427,889 / 417,575 : 5,010.9 :

O : : 239,672 : 450,210 / 420,600 : 5,047.2 :

N : : 232,144 : 444,724 / 424,600 : 5,095.2 :

D : : 225,766 : 434,871 / 428,192 : 5,138.3 :

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Kfpc-A : KfPrime :

2012

J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 / 432,125 : 5,185.5 :

F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 / 435,167 : 5,222.0 :

M : : 236,939 : 455,159 / 439,908 : 5,278.9 :

A : : 243,737 : 464,944 / 444,850 : 5,338.2 :

M : : 243,759 : 469,314 / 448,175 : 5,378.1 :

J. : : 246,235 : 477,440 / 451,592 : 5,419.1 :

Jl : : 242,097 : 460,304 / 453,683 : 5,444.2 :

A : : 236,260 : 454,875 / == ?? == : ==n/a= :

===============================

mom:- 2.41% : - 1.18% : Est. DI : : 144.5% /

[drbubb]

Nailing the Horsesh/t to the Wall - It Sticks!, (...and it Stinks too)

 

Mr. Ivor Dickinson was out promoting his Prime London Property fund - in Sept.2007, just as the UK and London was making its top.

Do you suppose that he had property to unload on behalf of clients ?

 

I wonder how many were duped by his arguments ??

Let's analyze the Horse-pucky, and "celebrate" the predictable behaviour of London Property Agents !

 

Read his arguments BELOW, and in the OP of this thread:

http://tinyurl.com/GEI-London

 

His statement in Sept.2007 was : "Next three months presents good buying moment"

I suppose he meant to buy in the winter: Dec.2007 - Jan.2007

 

What happened after the Top? / As per the KFPC-London Index

 

(Index) : KFPC Index

Jan.08 : 4,764.4 : call it 100.0%

Mar.08 : 4,796.6 : call it 100.57%

Mar.09 : 3,652.2 : call it: 76.65%

 

There was a drop of -23.3% over the 18 months after his Email !

And a -23.8% drop from the Top which came just when he planned to be buying.

 

That's not good.

And anyone who bought the fund after receiving the email was likely to be disappointed.

Sure. By now he will be telling his clients how much money they could have made if they had bought in March 2009, more than a year after the Buying Window he had identified.

 

Ivor Dickinson, Managing Director / Douglas and Gordon

=== === ===

 

Is the Prime London party over and/or will the USA housing crash affect Prime London prices?

 

Summary

 

1 The Prime Capital London ( PCL ) market is quite distinct from the rest of the UK property market, let alone the USA one;

 

2 The areas in USA where prices are falling fastest, and where we have been warning since Q1 that UK prices will fall too, is where there have been recent large increases in supply of housing stock;

 

3 Supply in Prime London is diminishing, not increasing;

 

4 In next three months it is possible that, compared to the first and second quarters, demand will soften in Prime London for all but the very best stock. As price increases pause and the press write about the PCL party being over potential sellers will retreat, leading to stock shortages in first quarter 2008;

 

5 Demand for best PCL stock likely to remain strong;

 

6 City bonuses likely to be slightly down on expectations of a few months ago but still strong ( those paid in their Bank's stock are likely to get that stock at very good price );

 

7 UK interest rates likely to be coming down by 2nd quarter 2008;

 

8 Next three months presents good buying moment for investors in PCL with 5-7 year time horizon;

. . .

 

Conclusion

=========

What no-one can predict is when (a) the slow down in growth rates will take place, and (cool.gif when the next big + % year will be. What can be observed from the last 20 + years of PCL price action is that when the slow down occurs (a) it is likely to be a slowing in growth rates, not an actual decline, (cool.gif any slow down soon affects seller sentiment and thus supply levels, leading to © a demand-supply imbalance and a resumption of long trend growth. The time between (a) and cool.gif and (cool.gif and © is anyone's guess. The risk of not being invested for the © leg of the process ( ie the big % year ) is clearly greater than the risk of investing in a year of sub-trend, but still positive, growth. Of course none of the above takes into account rental yields which tend to rise at times of capital growth slow-down and make a significant contribution to total returns ( which have not had a negative year since 1992 ).

. . .

On a longer term perspective, investment bank Investec undertook some research in August 2007 and found that over half of all London agents thought that, within two years, £4,000 per sq ft would be common place for the best stock. The Fund is currently buying the best stock for between £1100-£1600 per sq ft.

 

For more information on the D&GIM Prime London Fund please either call or e-mail me

at the number/address below and/or go to our website http://www.dngim.com

 

"In Aug.2007 ...within two years, £4,000 per sq ft would be common place"

 

What horse-pucky!

The low was March 2009, and two years later (3,886.3 in Aug. 2009), prices were -19% off the Top!

[drbubb]

REUTERS GETS IT RIGHT !

 

After viewing the horsefeathers from the "despicable Estate Agent" (whoops! that's redundant.)

Try reading the Reuters article

 

Why London's Luxury Property Market is set to Boom

Crazy, misleading headline !

http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2012-09-03/why-londons-luxury-property-market-is-set-to-boom

The story itself shows a despicable Estate Agent pumping "high end" London, while the reporter talks about plans to "keep on building", 15,000 new Luxury properties, in Central London. Sounds more like the End of a Boom, rather than the beginning of one.

 

Luxury developers "facing threat of Crash" in London

 

Companies racing to cash in on bonanza driven by overseas demand could crash market

 

+ Over 15,000 homes in development worth more than Pds 38 Billion are due for completion in the next 10 years

+ Total floor area covers almost 20 million sf = size of London Olympic park

+ "Developers are racing to get first to site, because they don't want to miss out on the boom that is happening

+ Prices for the best central London homes rose 1.8 percent in the three months to August (Knight Frank)

+ About 4,000 high-end homes will be built in London in 2016 alone - an eight fold increase on the average per year !!

 

Even foreign developers like SP Septia and Sime Darby are getting in on the act - They will build 3,000 homes at Battersea Power Station

 

(Wow! what a difference between Quality journalism, and schlock spin!)

[John Doe]

Declan Curry on BBC24 just now talking about the Guardian article about investing in housing market value tracking products. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/sep/07/property-investment-bet-house-prices).

 

He describes the product, then adds.....(But), "as we all know by now, house prices can fall, as well as plunge"

 

Good to see the old BBC on the ball again, just as prices seem like they might have bottomed out, and (controversial warning) might even start rising again (well, anything’s possible if the BBC have finally turned bearish ).

 

[John Doe]

BDEV up again!

 

173 and counting

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BDEV.L&ql=1

[drbubb]

Don't give up on the idea of some downside.

[John Doe]

Don't give up on the idea of some downside.

Actually thinking of shorting it

[drbubb]

Don't give up on the idea of some downside.

 

 

BDEV: 159.40 -10.30

Open: 168.00 High: 170.05 Low: 158.20

Volume: 6,064,256

Percent Change: -6.07%

 

SELL ON NEWS ??

====

 

Barratt Developments has reported an increase in annual profit to £191.1m - up 41.6% on the same period last year.

 

Revenues at the housebuilder - known for its new-builds - increased by 14.1%, while the average sales price of its homes rose from £178,300 to £180,000.

 

It also managed to almost halve its net debt to £167.7m.

 

Government schemes to boost the housing market and a drive to build new homes on higher-margin land - in the South East for example - boosted its results, the company said.

 

An increase in the number of homes it completed - 12,637 this year compared with 11,078 last year - also helped.

[drbubb]

 

Halifax House Price Index - August 2012

There was little change in underlying house price growth in the UK over first eight months of 2012, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index.

 

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"Nationally, house prices continue to tread water, as measured by the underlying trend. Prices in the three months to August were fractionally lower (-0.3%) compared with the previous three months. House prices fell by 0.4% in August with the declines in the past two months largely offsetting the gains in the preceding two months.

 

"Overall, there has been little change in house prices so far this year with the UK average price in August at a very similar level to the end of 2011. A gradual upward trend in spending power, aided by lower inflation, should help to support housing demand in the coming months. Nonetheless, house prices are likely to remain flat over the remainder of 2012 and into next year."

 

Key facts

• House prices in the three months to August were 0.3% lower than in the preceding three months. This was slightly worse than in July when there was a 0.1% decline in prices on a three monthly basis.
  
• House prices declined by 0.4% in August. This was the second successive monthly fall, with these two decreases largely cancelling out the rises recorded in May and June.
  
• Little overall change in prices over the first eight months of 2012. The average UK house price in August 2012 was 0.2% higher than in December 2011. House prices nationally are at a very similar level to three years' ago, at £160,256.
  

/more:

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/press_releases/2012_press_release_brands/halifax/0609_HPI.asp