UK House prices: News & Views

[Walktothewater]

How many people sell their house and buy electricity with the money?

 

The vast majority of people buy a house to live in. The only factors they are interested in are:

 

What they earn

How much their mortgage is

Whether general inflation makes it harder for them to pay their mortgage

 

Whether their house price has gone down in nominal terms or in terms of how many ounces of gold you would need to buy it is of no interest whatsoever.

 

Nor does the price of houses in terms of ounces of gold mean anything to anyone other than someone who sold to rent and put all their money into gold.

 

If the price of gold halved tomorrow, would you think that house prices had doubled?

 

If gas halved in price tomorrow, would you consider that house prices had been affected?

 

 

I’m not sure what your point is. Do you disagree with the data? The facts, not opinions, but the facts are this: Pounds are the currency unit of the UK. A pound from last year buys less stuff today than it did last year and will buy even less next year. I.e. their value is being diminished. Ergo the effect of nominal price falls is magnified by the falling purchasing power of the currency unit. You may indeed be spot on in your analysis of what people think or what interests them or what XYZ means to the average person. But that doesn’t alter the fact that real house prices, that is prices measured in purchasing power adjusted pounds, have fallen more than nominal.

[drbubb]

LONDON (Reuters)- House prices rose faster than expected in October, data from mortgage lender Nationwide showed on Thursday, though a sustained recovery of the housing market still looks far from certain.

 

House prices in Britain were 0.6 percent higher than in September, Nationwide said, though they were still 0.9 percent lower than in October 2011.

 

"While the data on economic growth suggests that the UK economy has not been performing quite as poorly as feared, there is little doubt that it remains extremely fragile," said Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner.

 

"The situation is likely to remain challenging in the housing market," he said.

 

/ http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/uk-house-prices-idUKBRE8A00AB20121101

 

Actually, the NSA data are up xx%

[Erewhon888]

 

Among the lots was a 21-bedroom property dating back to 1845.

Castle Dillon in Armagh had a guide price of just £210,000.

A representative of the auctioneers staging the event said that, while it is currently in a state of disrepair, the same property in good condition would have fetched up to £2m at the height of the boom.

The highest bid last night was just £100,000.

Read more: http://www.belfastte...l#ixzz2AysunkKA

[drbubb]

 

 

 

Read more: http://www.belfastte...l#ixzz2AysunkKA

Nice place - needs some care

[Meralti]

House prices in Britain were 0.6 percent higher than in September, Nationwide said, though they were still 0.9 percent lower than in October 2011.

 

/ http://uk.reuters.co...E8A00AB20121101

 

Actually, the NSA data are up xx%

 

Non-Seasonally Adjusted comes in at 0.1% for October. So pretty much flat. The seasonal adjustment is based on past sales data that is largely irrelevant in an environment of minimum 60% LTV mortagages with the traditional 1st time buyer having almost disappeared.

[drbubb]

Non-Seasonally Adjusted comes in at 0.1% for October. So pretty much flat. The seasonal adjustment is based on past sales data that is largely irrelevant in an environment of minimum 60% LTV mortagages with the traditional 1st time buyer having almost disappeared.

 

Why UK Property is in the Doldrums, relying on Foreigners

 

There's a more up-to-date chart here: page 2

http://www.nationwid...al/Oct_2012.pdf

 

Spot the Villains in the above chart (look for red)

[Perishabull]

 

 

 

Read more: http://www.belfastte...l#ixzz2AysunkKA

 

Very nice if you have plenty of funds to plough into it.

 

 

Sometimes it can be interesting to look at search trends on Google trends. I looked at search frequency in the UK for the term "house prices uk" from 2004 until now.

 

Here's what it shows;

 

 

It doesn't give concrete figures for searches but only how the trend has developed over time, so 100 represents peak search volume over the timeframe in question. The highest point looks to be February 2007, about 5/6 months before the absolute top. Then it went down to 20% of peak by the end of 2010.

 

Now it's back to 70% of peak and appears to be on an upswing.

[John Doe]

Spot the Villains in the above chart

 

The private sector (and general economy) for not keeping up?

 

Besides, the number of public sector jobs is falling, while the number of private sector jobs is increasing (and more than making up for the number of public sector losses). So not all bad.

[Van]

Nationwide has been remarkably consistent in the last 12 months, really:

 

 

165,798

Dec-11 -0.3 0.2 1.0 163,822

Jan-12 -0.3 0.1 0.6 162,228

Feb-12 0.4 -0.2 0.9 162,712

Mar-12 -0.9 -0.5 -0.9 163,327

Apr-12 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 164,134

May-12 0.2 -0.9 -0.7 166,022

Jun-12 -0.6 -0.8 -1.5 165,738

Jul-12 -0.8 -0.9 -2.6 164,389

Aug-12 1.3 -0.6 -0.7 164,729

Sep-12 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4 163,964

Oct-12 0.6 0.5 -0.9 164,153

 

 

Max 166,022

Min 162,228

 

So +/- 2.3%.

 

BTW, someone should really tell them to put their charts on a log graph. That long term trend chart is looking more and more rediculous.

[drbubb]

The private sector (and general economy) for not keeping up?

Besides, the number of public sector jobs is falling, while the number of private sector jobs is increasing (and more than making up for the number of public sector losses). So not all bad.

In tough times, Public sector wage growth should not be above the rate of Private sector

The parasites are getting healthier than their hosts

[Van]

It's austerity doncha know.

[drbubb]

It's austerity doncha know.

For the Private Sector, it has been

[John Doe]

In tough times, Public sector wage growth should not be above the rate of Private sector

The parasites are getting healthier than their hosts

 

With pay freezes having been in effect for a few years now in the majority of the public sector, the figures might be partly to do with many of the lowest paid losing their jobs, shifting the average figure upwards.

 

Besides, all this talk of parasites isn't actually real or helpful. The vast vast majority, including teachers, nurses and cleaners etc are not parasites. They are doing jobs that need doing.

 

Sure there is waste, and some non-jobs too, but show me a multinational corporation where there isn't. The ultra efficient corporation is another myth pedalled by the right wing first year student books. I've worked in them and seen the shocking waste and non-jobs there too. RBS is a great example. They had people there that actually didn't know what they were meant to do, or even what their job titles meant FFS.

 

The state is too large and needs reducing. Labour increased the state massively and have a lot to answer for. If the massive increase in spending was matched by a massive increase in services, it might not have been such a problem.

 

However, this is now being addressed, but falling for the old divide and conquer mantra, “public sector bad, private sector good”, and the "them and us" mentality really doesn't end up helping anyone except the 1%. Indeed, the bailouts of Private companies (and the still ongoing fallout of this debacle) has cost us equally as much as an over-bloated public sector.

 

A smaller public sector concentrating on the jobs we require them to do is coming, but when it arrives will people still call them parasites? If not, then it really makes no sense now.

[drbubb]

"With pay freezes having been in effect for a few years now"

 

Hmm. Pay has FALLEN in many private sector jobs.

 

Why do Public sector people think they should be immune to that?

It is not being addressed fast enough - Villains are escaping their just fate

[John Doe]

"With pay freezes having been in effect for a few years now"

 

Hmm. Pay has FALLEN in many private sector jobs.

 

Why do Public sector people think they should be immune to that?

It is not being addressed fast enough - Villains are escaping their just fate

 

In real terms, it has fallen a good 10% or more. Also, don't forget additions to the public sector wage average from taking on RBS and LLoyds group, which are also now included in those figures.

 

However, (although only a few sectors in the private sector actually took a nominal pay cut, banking and the massive wages/bonuses they had, (excluding RBS and LLoyds group, of course) is a large part of the private sector drop), I do agree.

 

Indeed, I've stated (on here many times) many years back that I thought we should have done what Eire did, and immediately cut all public sector pay 10%, while raising the tax threshold to protect the lowest paid in the sector.

 

Could have saved jobs and cut the pension bill (and future commitments) too. Never understood making the really lowest paid public sector workers redundant, when it costs practically the same to have them unemployed.

 

But again, using language like villans? (unless of course you mean the government, in which case, yes, of course they are )

[wee Jinky]

Have to agree JD -calling Public Sector workers parasites is both arrogant and ignorant

I've had many jobs in private and public sector -I'd like to see Bubb come and work with me

as a fireman in the Wine Alley in Govan and see how cushy life is

He'd be screaming to get back into his comfy chair pushing buttons on his PC within 24 hrs

[drbubb]

Have to agree JD -calling Public Sector workers parasites is both arrogant and ignorant

I've had many jobs in private and public sector -I'd like to see Bubb come and work with me

as a fireman in the Wine Alley in Govan and see how cushy life is

He'd be screaming to get back into his comfy chair pushing buttons on his PC within 24 hrs

 

I dunno.

The hours are (generally) less in the public sector, and the pensions are good too?

What happened to my pension? I do not know

 

I think most in the public sector have no idea what the risks and realities of the private sector are like

=== ===

 

Having said that...

 

I have no doubt that there are many fine, hard-working, and dedicated people working in the public sector.

Probably a large majority of those employed there. So "villains" will seem a harsh characterisation, since the majority

certainly lack any villainous intent.

 

What disturbs me is the way the system now rewards them more handsomely that this in the private sector,

who afterall are the economic engine of a private enterprise economy. They should not forget that.

The private sector cannot truly be healthy long term, if the private sector is ailing, and shrinking.

[wee Jinky]

Have you any ideas of the risks of entering a burning building ?

or working in temperatures of minus 28C for hours on end

or being attacked by angry mobs for putting out their bonfires

or even surviving long enough to enjoy a pension due to the toxic

fumes you encounter daily just doing your cushy public sector job

[drbubb]

Sure - there's a risk to life - I am not attacking fire-fighters, just the pay-package & outsized pensions.

What should we do, simply pay them whatever they ask for - without reference to private sector pay ?

 

(There are stories like this one, now running in the press.):

 

 

It’s not just the boomers shafting the younger generation!

 

Telegraph: Households face £1,230 bill to plug public sector pension black hole

 

“Why should future generations pick up the bill for the pensions of public sector workers, people who on average are likely to be far better off in their retirement than their wealth-creating private sector peers?”

[wee Jinky]

I think your anger would be better focussed on those at the top of the tree who award themselves vulgar pay packages

the top 400 people in the US have more wealth than the bottom 150m combined

Did they create this wealth on their own or did they rely on the peasant to actually go out and do the graft

To extract the coal the ore the oil etc .

During the booms its the private sector workers who reap the rewards

when it all goes pearshape due mostly to their greed they point the finger at Joe sixpack

There may be a few at the top of the public sector who have their nose in the trough

but for the vast majority to refer to them as parasites is disgraceful

Who was it that caused the depression of the 30s ? speculators or coalminers?

who caused the banking meltdown in 2008 ?

How many Billions are written off every year from private sector liquidations

and who pays for their mistakes ?

How many times has Donald Trump gone bust yet re emerges living off other peoples money

Theres a parasite for you

[John Doe]

Sure - there's a risk to life - I am not attacking fire-fighters, just the pay-package & outsized pensions.

What should we do, simply pay them whatever they ask for - without reference to private sector pay ?

 

(There are stories like this one, now running in the press.):

 

 

It’s not just the boomers shafting the younger generation!

 

Telegraph: Households face £1,230 bill to plug public sector pension black hole

 

“Why should future generations pick up the bill for the pensions of public sector workers, people who on average are likely to be far better off in their retirement than their wealth-creating private sector peers?”

 

Again, this is the great divide and conquer trick being set up by the government and the trap many are falling into.

 

They are trying, and succeeding in many cases it seems, to get everyone in the private sector to attack the public sector workers for having a pension that they can live on (which in reality for the vast vast majority of public sector workers is actually very low indeed).

 

Instead, the private sector should be asking why the hell haven't we got a decent pension any more? That's the real point many miss.

 

They used to have, but successive companies have reduced and reduced it to the point where it is now a fraction of what it once was, whilst at the same time the productivity of the companies rose and their managements pay and pensions have ballooned out of all proportion.

 

Talk about race to the bottom.

 

Besides, many public sector pensions are actually fully funded (for example, where I currently work the contribution is ~ 25% of our wage) and is part of their remuneration package.

 

The unfunded sections of course need to be controlled, and massive changes are being brought in, including higher contributions, average salary instead of final salary, and working until older than they were originally going to when they signed up.

 

So instead of attacking the workers who chose their jobs/careers knowing the benefits of public service, in many cases with wages far less than they’d get in the equivalent private sector, how about blaming the successive Politians who continually buried their heads in the sand while life expectancy rose and rose, and allowed this system to get in this state in the first place, and as wee jinky says....

 

I think your anger would be better focussed on those at the top of the tree who award themselves vulgar pay packages

the top 400 people in the US have more wealth than the bottom 150m combined

 

Absolutley.

[drbubb]

I think your anger would be better focussed on those at the top of the tree who award themselves vulgar pay packages

the top 400 people in the US have more wealth than the bottom 150m combined

Huh?

It doesn't work that way ... all sides of this unfairness need to be addressed.

As you may know, I have often addressed the issue of excess pay to bankers.

The mission is to help the middle class within the private sector - they have been squeezed too hard

[drbubb]

Lifetime of debt slavery - Home-Owner-Ism enters final phase

 

CityWire: Are you facing a mortgage 'time bomb' in retirement?

 

"Analysis by equity release lender More 2 Life shows 103,000 over-65 households are still repaying mortgages, including 81,000 65- to 74-year-old households, and 22,000 households of 75 years plus. The number of people still repaying mortgages in retirement is reflected in changing work patterns, as more people work past the traditional retirement age and the age of a first-time buyer increases. As people live longer and work into older age the number still paying their mortgage in retirement will increase, exacerbated by the number of interest-only mortgages that are coming to the end of their term." But... but... this is what we want, isn't it? Pay rent until you're forty and then pay a huge mortgage until you're eighty? That's what "aspiration" is all about, isn't it?

=====

 

Solution?

SELL the property, paydown the mortgage, And Downsize?

Easy

[wee Jinky]

that may be your mission ,its certainly not mine .

I'll tell you how it works

We have an elite that control the rest of us

they have the politicians to make the laws,the armies and police

to subjugate the people and the MSM to BS us down whatever road

they wish us to walk .They dangle carrots to encourage us to work harder and longer

then they whip the carrots away once we are of no more use to them .

They create boom and busts ,they profit on the way up and they profit on the way down

The housing boom was a get into debt boom - education education education was an

enslavement project to keep the young off the dole and issue them with worthless degrees

while indebting them for years to come .

 

We used to have elderly hospitals that the people paid for through NI and Income tax

what do we have now ? private care homes that you are forced to pay for (again)

by having your home stolen from you to pay for that care .

The bottom line is the people create the wealth (private and public sector)

and the elite steal it back

Its the longest running Ponzi scheme in history

[John Doe]

The bottom line is the people create the wealth (private and public sector)

and the elite steal it back

 

That's the point.

 

 

I dunno.

The hours are (generally) less in the public sector, and the pensions are good too?

What happened to my pension? I do not know

 

I think most in the public sector have no idea what the risks and realities of the private sector are like

 

Many have no understanding of how the public sector is today. We have had 3 rounds of redundancies in the last 5 years alone here. It might once have been a job for life, but not nowadays.

 

I've worked in the public and private sector (public sector at present). I do more hours now (for a set wage BTW) then I remember ever doing in the private sector, where I actually got overtime pay for extra hours I did work, and bonuses too.

 

That’s something else we don’t get here. So all in all, there are benefits and drawbacks in each.

 

Indeed, I've never understood why those who keep falling for the government "them and us" propaganda and who continually bleat on about the public sector this, and the public sector that, why don't they just stop moaning, and go get a public sector job if they think it’s so great? Simple.

 

Or are they only doing their private sector job for altruistic reasons, and for the good of their fellow citizens?