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UK House prices: News & Views


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This graph shows the percentage increase in different types of housing between 1992 and 2007, including both new builds and stock that has been converted to a different form of tenure....Housing stock in the UK increased from 23.5 million to 26.6 million homes (a 13.2% increase)

http://www.hnm.org.u...ing-supply.html

Increase in population during same period 5.916% (1992-2007) ((60,986,600-57,580,400)/57,580,400*100)

http://www.google.co...q=uk population

 

Well spotted, Fexx.

That's for the clarification !

A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot.

There is also a possibility that housing demand could SHRINK, if the average household size rises.

That is possible if people begin to economise on their housing costs, instead of trying to borrow their

way into more housing, or talk a generous government into forking over more housing benefits

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Well spotted, Fexx.

That's for the clarification !

A 7% increase - beyond population growth is quite a lot.

 

Yet...

 

it started from a very low base (evidenced by prices 10 years back, when the Economist suggested they were already way over priced),

 

it is still nowhere near enough to make house affordable,

 

the number of new homes being built has actually fallen much further over the last few years,

 

and our population growth continues relentlessly.

 

A huge release of land, and a massive house-building program, might just help this country out more than any other measure our PTB could introduce.

 

Why they don't just build a new (well planned, well thought out) modern, pedestrian friendly city or two, I just cannot understand.

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The rightmove index is ridiculously volatile.

Best Ignore it.

 

Maybe. Maybe not.

 

Here's Rightmove Greater London offering price index

- versus Knight Frank's Prime Central London index

 

gpkfpc.png

 

Useless ?

The Rightmove index never properly reflected the drop in Prime Central London

prices in 2008-2009. (Probably because most sellers refused to cut asking prices.)

 

Useful ?

Rightmove's figures may prove useful if they continue rolling over, and they are

seen to drag KF's Prime Central prices (in Green) down with them.

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The rightmove index is ridiculously volatile.

Best Ignore it.

 

Rightmove is a seriously flawed index as discussed above but it's a good indicator of sentiment and confidence. No news coverage of these figures on mainstream sources yet.

 

Historically Rightmove has been a reasonable leading indication of major shifts. What it really tracks is seller expectation (and EA influence there upon) when first marketing. It is a very poor indicator of actual selling prices.

 

B.T.W I still haven't seen any direct coverage of these falls. They are only mentioned in the context of next years predicated rises.

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a decline of 2.2% in Scotland and 11.7% in Northern Ireland."

 

Yep.

See chart:

 

Percentage increase in types of housing, 1991-2007

 

herein: http://www.hnm.org.uk/charts/housing-supply.html

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Well heh, who'd want to live there? :blink:

 

Have you forgotten?

It was once a popular "hotspot" for London based BTL investors

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Yep.

See chart:

 

Percentage increase in types of housing, 1991-2007

 

herein: http://www.hnm.org.u...ing-supply.html

 

So what you're saying is, more social housing = lower housing costs?

 

Wow, who'd have thought that eh? :rolleyes:

 

 

Have you forgotten?

It was once a popular "hotspot" for London based BTL investors

 

And Radio 5 Live DJ's :D

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London versus Rest-of-UK prices

 

i'm quite surprised you are all surprised by this/didn't see it coming.

 

there has been a sterling crash, but london as a world city has foreign demand that the rest of the UK doesn't. the rest of the UK must suffer a crash as there are no backstops from foreign demand and also the constant demand to live in london as a premier world city with jobs, art and culture.

 

london and manhattan are, IMO two places which have very robust demand.

 

now whether continued economic weakness and job losses will dampen this is an interesting question, but there is a lot of resilience in these cities.

 

I left the UK in 2006, to move to the emerging Top Global financial centre, where prices rose without a currency boost, so I think I saw the future reasonably clearly. HK has sprinted forward, faster than London or NYC, as I have chronicled in the NyLonKong thread.

 

Speaking of seeing the future: Today, it is the huge arbitrage presented by the difference in prices between London and Rest-of-UK which surprises me. With so many boomers at-or-approaching retirement age, I think it is a very easy prediction that it will narrow hugely in the years to come.

 

Once your income is "fixed" at retirement, and you no longer need access to a high-paying job, it makes great sense to sell a London property, cash a big profit, and move somewhere (in the Rest of UK, or even outside the UK) that might cost only half as much, which also has lower living costs. Those that do NOT do this may find their pensions are inadequate if inflation comes. And in inflationary times, London incomes and fixed pension (even more so) will lag behind incomes. House Price appreciation is very unlikely to keep pace when incomes are weaker than inflation.

 

abbapq.jpg

I think anyone who buys in Greater London at this huge price differential needs to have their head examined for lack-of-sense.

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Access to all the Alien technology and development of Teslas ideas on zero point energy are helping to avoid the expected crash

 

The elite and the others who are working on these projects have been buying up property knowing that it can never totally crash and they more or less have a one way bet. The Alien libraries also have access to advanced economics that are way ahead of anything humans have come up with so far.

 

Having a big price correction was just a way to enable the insiders to buy up more stuff.

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Access to all the Alien technology and development of Teslas ideas on zero point energy are helping to avoid the expected crash

 

The elite and the others who are working on these projects have been buying up property knowing that it can never totally crash and they more or less have a one way bet. The Alien libraries also have access to advanced economics that are way ahead of anything humans have come up with so far.

 

Having a big price correction was just a way to enable the insiders to buy up more stuff.

 

I knew it! I knew that's what it was! :D

 

Where you been AAK?

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AAK's back.

 

And he's still speaking as idiocyncratically as always

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Excellent post. Potential purchasers should also consider the possiblity of intergalactic thermo-nuclear war or cabal time circle manipulation before deciding whether to snap up a competitively priced charming three-bedroom period cottage in Chipping Norton.

 

thanks. stunlee.

very useful comment

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Well, as my eagle thread only lasted an hour on the main site (are you a mod now van?), I thought I mention what did catch my attention today. This was US homes improving again,

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-20796835

 

alongside UK lenders predicting more lending and purchases next year.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-20789252

 

The bottom (nominal, as some of us predicted it would be over a year ago, to almost universal ridicule) might well, in future hindsight, have been late 2012 - early 2013.

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MORE HOUSE, not higher benefits needed ...

 

Anti-poverty campaigners should ditch their support for housing benefit in favour of proposals to bring down the cost of housing for low income families, according to a free market thinktank.

 

The £21bn cost of subsidising mortgages and rents to low incomes families could be almost halved when the government passes legislation to ease planning rules and allow more house building, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) said.

 

The number of people claiming housing benefit has increased by 780,000 since the beginning of 2009 to 5 million.

 

The IEA said that only when property developers and local communities have the freedom to build more homes will the cost of housing begin to fall.

 

The thinktank warned that lobbyists campaigning for increased government spending on housing benefit and tax credits wanted an expensive, taxpayer-funded fix that failed to tackle the long term problem of unaffordable house prices and escalating rents.

 

More: http://www.guardian....housing-benefit

 

 

TPTB should have LET Greater London "Take" is Crash medicine back in 2008-9

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House Prices Predicted To Edge Down In 2013

 

Reluctance by struggling families to take on more debt and low sales are expected to act as a drag on the housing market.

 

Monday 24 December 2012

16114443-522x293.jpg

Average prices ended the year 0.3% lower than a year ago

 

House prices across the country fall by 1% during 2013 as the London market shows signs of cooling, property analysts have said.

Prices fell 0.1% month-on-month in December, marking the sixth month in a row that this has happened, and average prices ended the year 0.3% lower than a year ago, Hometrack said.

It predicts that a reluctance by struggling families to take on more debt will continue to act as a drag on the housing market next year and prices will be more volatile with continued low sales.

 

Hometrack's monthly figures for December show prices were flat in London and East Anglia, fell 0.1% in the Midlands, the South and Yorkshire and Humberside, dropped 0.2% in the North West and Wales and by 0.3% in the North East.

 

One in five postcodes in England and Wales recorded price increases over the past year but prices have fallen across two-thirds of the country.

London has had strong demand from wealthy overseas buyers and consistently outperforms other regions, seeing prices rise in seven out of 10 postcodes this year. Property prices are now 10% higher than at the peak of the market in 2007.

But price growth in London, vital to keeping average prices up in the rest of the country, is predicted to slow over next year, with a 2% annual increase pencilled in.

Central London price growth looks set to slow, following the introduction of a 7% stamp duty rate placed on homes worth over £2m in March.

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http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-town-records-biggest-property-price-plunge-in-uk-16254707.html

 

 

Factfile

UK towns with biggest falls in average house prices:

Craigavon down 18.4% (to £91,530)

Wishaw 12.5% (£87,410)

Chorley 9.4% (£125,156)

Carlisle 9.3% (£123,100)

Wirral 9.3% (£160,375)

Hamilton 8.9% (£96,478)

Ayr 8.2% (£116,352)

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Seaside resort sees UK's biggest price rise

 

 

Parts of the UK saw house prices drop in 2012 but these towns experienced big rises.

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In the USA...

 

Housing Prices Surge in 2012: Thank the Fed

Time - 10 Hours ago

Sam Hodgson / Bloomberg /

Construction crews work at the site of the Arista at the Crosby development in Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., on Dec. 21, 2012 Without a doubt, the U.S. housing market has been the

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