Jump to content

UK House prices: News & Views


Recommended Posts

Will you sing that next podcast and is your cockney accent every bit as good as Dick Van Dykes? :D

I was disappointed when I first arrived in London, fresh off the plane from the US,

that I did not hear the accents that I expected from the Poppins movie.

 

Dick Van Dyke - Chim Chim Cher-ee 1,12 min

 

His movements were as remarkable as his accent

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 5.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

ONE HYDE PARK - FLYING OFF THE SHELVES?

Or the next iconic failure ?

==================

 

one_hyde_park_candy_brothers.jpg

 

Two fully sold (to the owners and developers)... Just 84 to go! Truth about the most hyped luxury flats in the world

 

Last week’s lavish launch party for One Hyde Park, the giant glass and concrete block of flats sandwiched between Harvey Nichols and The Serpentine, was breathlessly billed as the return of the super-rich to London’s property market. At an asking price upwards of £6,000 per square foot, the luxury development – designed by Lord Rogers and masterminded by developer brothers Nicholas and Christian Candy – is said to be the most expensive residential property in the world.

 

Indeed, one of the penthouses has reportedly been sold for a gargantuan £135 million to a buyer who made a casual inquiry on the internet.

 

Stretch limousines were on hand to ferry 350 selected VIPs the hundred yards or so to the plush Mandarin Oriental Hotel next door. Liveried guards asked for photo ID, the least you might expect for entry to a complex at which security is said to be ‘fortress-like’ and which includes iris-recognition systems in the lifts, panic rooms and bullet-proof glass.

 

Fifteen different types of precious marble have been used in the construction and whole forests of European oak felled. Already described as the most desirable address on the planet, the development would set the benchmark for global house prices for the super-rich.

 

Sixty per cent of the 86 apartments have sold, say the developers, and the rest are going fast. After all, One Hyde Park has a private cinema, a 21 metre swimming pool, saunas, a gym, a golf simulator, a wine cellar, a valet service, concierge and room service from the Mandarin Oriental next door. The cheapest home on offer, a humble one-bedroom flat, is said to cost £6.75 million, with developers claiming that the majority cost between £27 million and £33 million.

 

Even the service charge is record-breaking. At £150 per square metre per year, the owners of the biggest units can expect to pay more than £100,000 annually. But The Mail on Sunday can reveal that, despite last Wednesday’s lavish ‘opening’, sales of only two of the homes have been completed – and for remarkably low prices.

 

Land Registry documents show that a hugely desirable triplex penthouse, occupying the entire 11th, 12th and 13th floors of one of the four buildings which make up the development, was sold last August.

 

It went to Park One, a company based in the Cayman Islands, which was almost certainly set up specifically for this purpose. The real owner is His Excellency Sheik Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jaber at-Thani.

 

The Sheik, a father of 13, is the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar and the second most powerful man in the gas-rich gulf kingdom after his cousin, the Emir.

 

/more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13...sold-84-go.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Merv finally admits UK is Donald Ducked.

 

No interset rates increases

No pretence of even trying to control inflation infact the complete opposite

No chance of borrowing

No help for savers

 

Happy new year to all of us in the UK :blink:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ince-1920s.html

 

 

 

Bank of England chief Mervyn King: standard of living to plunge at fastest rate since 1920s <H2>Households face the most dramatic squeeze in living standards since the 1920s, the Governor of the Bank of England warned, as he reacted to the shock disclosure that the economy was shrinking again.

 

Families will see their disposable income eaten up as they "pay the inevitable price" for the financial crisis, Mervyn King warned.

 

With wages failing to keep pace with rising inflation, workers' take- home pay will end the year worth the same as in 2005 — the most prolonged fall in living standards for more than 80 years, he claimed.

 

Mr King issued the warning in a speech in Newcastle upon Tyne after official figures showed that gross domestic product fell by 0.5 per cent during the final three months last year. The Government blamed the unexpected reduction — the first since the third quarter of 2009 — on the freezing weather that paralysed much of the country last month.

 

But there were fears that the country was poised to slip back into recession, defined as two successive quarters of negative growth. Economists said the situation was "an absolute disaster".

 

Labour accused ministers of jeopardising recovery by pushing ahead with public spending cuts too quickly.

 

 

Mr King said he was unable to offer any imminent hope of a rise in interest rates in coming months because of the poor economic outlook. Savers and "those who behaved prudently" would be among the biggest losers in the squeeze, he admitted.

 

Disposable household income has been hit by sharp increases in the cost of food, fuel and tax, coupled with restricted wage rises for most workers. Last year, take-home pay fell by about 12 per cent, official figures showed, and the trend was expected to continue in 2011.

 

The governor warned that the Bank "neither can, nor should try to, prevent the squeeze in living standards".

 

He said that the economic figures were a reminder that the recovery will be "choppy". However, he said the biggest threat facing the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, which sets interest rates, was rising inflation.

 

The Bank is expected to use interest rates to keep inflation below two per cent, but the governor said inflation could rise "to somewhere between four per cent and five per cent over the next few months".

 

He claimed that rising inflation had been caused largely by increases in global oil and commodity prices, and tax rises such as the increase in VAT introduced at the beginning of the year, which the Bank was powerless to control.

 

"In 2011, real wages are likely to be no higher than they were in 2005," he said. "One has to go back to the 1920s to find a time when real wages fell over a period of six years.

 

"The squeeze on living standards is the inevitable price to pay for the financial crisis and subsequent rebalancing of the world and UK economies."

 

Mr King insisted that the Monetary Policy Committee could not have increased interest rates from their current record low level to tackle the rise in inflation.

 

"If the MPC had raised the Bank Rate significantly, inflation might well have started to fall back this year, but only because the recovery would have been slower, unemployment higher and average earnings rising even more slowly than now," he said.

 

"The erosion of living standards would have been even greater. The idea that the MPC could have preserved living standards, by preventing the rise in inflation without also pushing down earnings growth further, is wishful thinking."

 

He added: "Monetary policy cannot be based on wishful thinking. So, unpleasant though it is, the Monetary Policy Committee neither can, nor should try to, prevent the squeeze in living standards, half of which is coming in the form of higher prices and half in earnings rising at a rate lower than normal."

 

"The Bank of England cannot prevent the squeeze on real take-home pay that so many families are now beginning to realise is the legacy of the banking crisis and the need to rebalance our economy."

 

The comments represented one of the governor's starkest warnings yet. His claim that the banking crisis was behind the ongoing squeeze on living standards comes at a sensitive time, as banks prepare to announce multi-million pound bonuses for their executives.

 

Mr King expressed sympathy for savers and highlighted the failure of lenders to pass on cuts in interest rates. "I sympathise completely with savers and those who behaved prudently now find themselves among the biggest losers from this crisis," he said. "But a return to economic stability from our fragile condition will require careful and well-judged steps looking beyond the next few months."

 

Addressing the problems of borrowers, he added: "Households and small businesses with little housing equity may be unable to borrow at all or are able to borrow only in the unsecured market – where rates are much higher than before the crisis."

 

</H2>

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RENTS UNDER-PRESSSURE - A logical expectation

 

"Bank of England chief Mervyn King: standard of living to plunge at fastest rate since 1920s <H2>Households face the most dramatic squeeze in living standards since the 1920s, the Governor of the Bank of England warned, as he reacted to the shock disclosure that the economy was shrinking again.

Families will see their disposable income eaten up as they "pay the inevitable price" for the financial crisis, Mervyn King warned.

With wages failing to keep pace with rising inflation, workers' take- home pay will end the year worth the same as in 2005 — the most prolonged fall in living standards for more than 80 years, he claimed."

/source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...ince-1920s.html

 

A landlord would have to be either: incredibly greedy, stupid, or both to think he is going to find it easy to get rent rises in an environment like that.

A more logical expectation would be rent cuts, which may have started already:

 

"In December, the average UK rent dropped by 1.2% to £684 per month - the lowest average since July 2010 according to the figures.

. . . Rents fell fastest in Wales, down 2.6%, while the average rents in the south east and London decreased by 2.5% and 2.3% respectively."

/source: http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgage...n_11_months.htm

 

Was it just a "seasonal thing", or the beginning of a downturn? We should know soon.

 

"The boom in rental growth is likely to be at an end, think-tank Capital Economics has warned.

Property economist Paul Diggle says the boom is on its last legs and warned that if its unemployment forecasts are correct, more tenants will be struggling to pay rents. Eviction specialist Landlord Action disagreed that rents would go down, but said its instructions relating to rent arrears increased by 12% over the last year, and now comprise 80% of its cases."

/source: http://www.introducertoday.co.uk/News/Stor...e=news_features

 

2011 is likely to be "The Year the squeeze on Landlords" starts. Look at the last decade or so, and it is obvious, UK and London landlords have had it "too good for too long" and a period of Yin may followed the profitable Yang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy new year to all of us in the UK :blink:

Yes, congrats. See also:

 

At least he is honest, and tells people what I have tried to convey on here for years.

...

I translate:

 

"You will get bum-fudged no matter what. There is no painless way out of this mess. We have to make you pay for what our bankster did to get their huge bonus. The only choice we give you is: (1) get bum-fudged the deflation way, or (2) get bum-fudged the inflation way. We have chosen method (2) because we love our banksters so much and it enables them to continue to bum-fudge you in the future."

 

Thanks for being honest Merv.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to this, we are witnessing a once-in-several-lifetimes event.

Frontrow seat. :o

http://www.wolseysecurities.co.uk/news.php?id=566

Interesting to see Mortgage approvals falling to record low levels.

Are we back to 2008 then?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting to see Mortgage approvals falling to record low levels.

Are we back to 2008 then?

Nah, just the snow ;)

 

I listened to the whole Merv speech. Very good on the whole.

 

It was interesting that he said wages were essentially back to 2005 levels and would continue to fall (real terms) for a couple of years.

 

Following the logic, House prices should fall back to 2003 levels.

 

That would do nicely.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was interesting that he said wages were essentially back to 2005 levels and would continue to fall (real terms) for a couple of years.

 

Yes, but not the wages that count - public sector wages. They get a nice steady rise every year. It's only very recently that pay restraint is being taken seriously.

 

Following the logic, House prices should fall back to 2003 levels.

 

House prices are already not far from 2003 levels in my area. Unfortunately, house prices were insanely high then and still are. They went down a bit from 2003 levels as interest rates rose during 2004/5 - went back up again, and a bit more, during 2006 (following the signal from the BOE in August 2005 that interest rate rises were over (they dropped 0.25% in August 2005 after a series of rises during 2004/early 2005)) - fell a bit in 2008 - crawled up a bit in 2009 and are now slowly (very slowly) falling again. Currently, various charts of sold prices show prices in my area as only a little above 2003 prices (depending on property type - flat, terrace, semi or detached. Detacheds seem to have risen the most.)

 

This illustrates what I said above

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can it happen in the next six months please. I want to move on.

Unlikely.

I think it will be late 2012 or 2013 or later before you see the sort of drop that you want.

 

I still think a 0.50-1.00% per month drop is a realistic expectation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

... Currently, various charts of sold prices show prices in my area as only a little above 2003 prices (depending on property type - flat, terrace, semi or detached. Detacheds seem to have risen the most.)

This illustrates what I said above

That's Hometrack.

Is the data accurate?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's Hometrack.

Is the data accurate?

 

Well around here (home counties) it's all tickety-boo, thanks. It's not agent-led hype but there's simply not enough stock = keeping prices up, and good stock is selling for stupid prices ....still!

 

For me, until the middle range houses (from say £500-£900k) around here drop, then there's not much to talk about. There are still no signs of it....at all.

 

Unfortunately, you don't erode the grotesque and disgusting amount of equity in chains built up over 10 years of HPI, in a year or two. Mr average around here sits on £100,000s of equity and is in no fear of losing it at all in this climate. When IRs rise, he might get itchy, but that's wishful thinking. IRs will be below 1% for a year to two more. Look at the BoE minutes - oh, there was the token 1 or 2 hawks, but nothing to get interested in.

 

Let's make no mistake, these falls will take a very long time, and IMO, in real terms only. Nominal will be frustratingly poor (ie 0.5% down, then 1% up, 2% down, 0.5% up etc. etc.)

 

Real, real, real, real falls that's where to look.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Let's make no mistake, these falls will take a very long time, and IMO, in real terms only. Nominal will be frustratingly poor (ie 0.5% down, then 1% up, 2% down, 0.5% up etc. etc.)

 

Real, real, real, real falls that's where to look.

 

I think you are mistaken if you think you will be waiting years.This is the 'MONEY SCIENTISTS' bread and butter.

 

CLASSIC PUMP AND DUMP.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

LISTEN TO THE GOOD DR ON THIS ONE HE AINT FIRING BLANKS FOR SURE!!!!!!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12285628

 

Bank mortgage approvals drop 10% in 2010

 

The property market stayed subdued in 2010 The number of mortgages approved for house buyers by the UK's main banks fell by 10% in 2010.

 

The British Bankers' Association (BBA) says its members approved just 400,000 mortgages between them.

 

 

http://propertytalklive.co.uk/landlords/39...-in-5-landlords

 

Rent arrears still a problem for 1 in 5 Landlords

 

A fifth of private-residential landlords have had tenants in rent arrears over the last three months, according to new research published by the National Landlords Association.

 

During Q2 2010, just over 21 per cent of landlords experienced rental arrears. This represents a small improvement on the previous quarter when 24.5 per cent of landlords reported the same.

 

However, the average amount of outstanding rent arrears has dropped significantly from £978 in Q1 to £799 in Q2. This could indicate that financial pressures on tenants have started to ease as the fragile economic recovery continues.

 

Chairman David Salusbury said:

 

“Rent arrears are a serious problem for landlords all over the UK. It is good to see the latest data which represents a small improvement in that more tenants are keeping up with their rent payments and not putting pressure on their landlords who may well have mortgage repayments to consider. It is critical that tenants and landlords communicate and work together to tackle financial problems before they result in a loss of rent or even the tenancy".

 

http://propertytalklive.co.uk/letting/5220...id-at-christmas

 

A landlord may not be for life – but should still be paid at Christmas

 

The property industry has again urged Ministers to keep to their pre-election pledge of restoring the direct payment of rent to landlords after new figures revealed that 11.7% of all UK rent went unpaid in December.

 

The LSL December Buy to Let Index recently showed that unpaid rent owed to residential landlords totalled £276mn across the UK in December, the highest total since December 2009.

 

The proportion of all UK rent that was unpaid or late by the end of December rose from 9.7% in November.

 

The British Property Federation said a key reason was the previous Government’s removal of the direct payment of housing benefit to landlords – a policy that has lead to increased rent arrears and evictions and has caused millions of pounds intended to be spent on welfare to leak out of the benefits system.

 

The BPF said there was growing evidence that the issue was dissuading landlords from letting homes to housing benefit claimants, restricting the number of homes available to rent and upping the pressure on hard-pressed councils to find homes for those on council waiting lists.

 

While it is possible, albeit slowly, to recoup rent from tenants who are not Local Housing Allowance claimants the same safeguards are not in place for those who are – costing the taxpayer millions of pounds each year.

 

Landlord groups, alongside homeless charities, have campaigned for the return of direct payment since it was removed in 2008. Conservative Party ministers, including Housing Minister Grant Shapps, had pledged to restore full direct payment before the election.

 

Ian Fletcher, director of policy at the British Property Federation, said: “Christmas is an expensive month for all, with the pressure to ensure presents under the tree come the 25th. But Christmas should not be bankrolled by tenants not passing December’s rent on to landlords.

 

“The government persists with a policy that was designed to empower LHA claimants, but the truth remains that millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money is being wasted and not finding its way to the landlord.

 

“There is already growing evidence that landlords are shunning LHA claimants due to rental arrears - putting pressure on local councils at a time when their budgets are being slashed by Whitehall.”

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's make no mistake, these falls will take a very long time, and IMO, in real terms only. Nominal will be frustratingly poor (ie 0.5% down, then 1% up, 2% down, 0.5% up etc. etc.)

Real, real, real, real falls that's where to look.

I would agree...

Provided you use Incomes to calculate "real" prices, rather than Inflation

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unlikely.

I think it will be late 2012 or 2013 or later before you see the sort of drop that you want.

 

I still think a 0.50-1.00% per month drop is a realistic expectation.

 

 

O.5% it is....

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...h-in-a-row.html

 

The average cost of a home in England and Wales dropped by 0.5pc this month to stand at £153,600 - 2.2pc less than in January 2010, according to housing intelligence firm Hometrack.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

"Reluctance to Sell"? - Wait until the panic sets in !

 

The average cost of a home in England and Wales dropped by 0.5pc this month to stand at £153,600 - 2.2pc less than in January 2010, according to housing intelligence firm Hometrack.

 

Potential buyers continued to sit on their hands in the face of house price falls, and uncertainty over the economy and future interest rate rises.

Estate agents reported a further 9.5pc fall in the number of people registering with them, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, contributing to a 26pc fall in demand during the past six months.

 

But there were also further signs that homeowners are becoming increasingly reluctant to put their properties on the market, with the supply of new homes for sale falling by 5.4pc during the month - the biggest drop for four years.

 

(Might the weather had something to do with the drop in "supply" for sale?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Telegraph reporter mentioned a "Reluctance to Sell"? - Wait until the panic sets in !

(Might the weather had something to do with the reported drop in "supply" that the Telegraph cited?)

I missed something important, which the Telegraph article did not make clear.

This item was only clear in Hometrack's own release :

 

The DROP in Supply was much less than the HUGE DROP IN HOME BUYING DEMAND in January:

 

+ 2011 began with a sluggish start. The latest survey of over 5,000 agents and surveyors showed a slowdown in both supply (-5.4%) - the largest monthly fall for 4 years - and demand (-9.5%). Falling demand in particular is likely to impact on pricing levels over the first half of 2011.

 

+ In January 2010 demand stood at -2.7%, a sharp contrast to today’s figure of -9.5%. This suggests that the housing market is facing more fundamental underlying issues than the usual post-Christmas slowdown.

 

+ With recent rises in the cost of living, household budgets will only come under further strain if concerns over rising inflation translate into higher interest rates. Mounting concern over a possible interest rate rise will act as a further dampener on demand.

 

+ A considerable number of households will not be directly affected by interest rate rises. Two-fifths of house sales are driven by cash buyers and Hometrack estimate that over 45% of households who own their home do not have a mortgage. This said all owner occupiers will feel the impact of weaker consumer sentiment.

 

/source: http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-...ey/20110127.cfm

 

This does not bode well for UK home prices.

Meantime, this key Builder bellwether stock looks set for a possible steep drop:

 

BDEV.L / Barratt Development ... update

001fl.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

May be...

 

How do you explain the stong rally from the housebuilders since the Nov lows? You must admit that their perforance has been quite unexpected, and given their bellweather characteristics, surely there is something up?

Taking BDEV, it looks like they rallied back to key resistance.

 

This these time is usually a seasonally good time for Builder stocks, and it may be ending early this year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ve been told that the majority of those who will be made redundant in the forthcoming job losses in the public sector will be informed between Feb and April.

 

Apparently, everyone is on hold at the moment, not knowing if it will be them.

 

As soon as the deed is done, the uncertainty that is largely to blame for the depth of the situation at present will evaporate (until the next round that is), leading to an improvement in GDP and a slowdown in housing falls, maybe even a levelling off.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ve been told that the majority of those who will be made redundant in the forthcoming job losses in the public sector will be informed between Feb and April.

 

Apparently, everyone is on hold at the moment, not knowing if it will be them.

 

As soon as the deed is done, the uncertainty that is largely to blame for the depth of the situation at present will evaporate (until the next round that is), leading to an improvement in GDP and a slowdown in housing falls, maybe even a levelling off.

 

IMO the job losses are a red herring. What kills the UK (and slowly strangles the housing market) will be a persistent lack of growth.

 

Key phrases for the next few years - 'the deficit remains stubbornly high' and 'growth was unexpectedly low'.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Taking BDEV, it looks like they rallied back to key resistance.

 

Hey, I hope you shorted them.

 

Down 4.3% today!! I opened my short this morning too. Thanks for flagging this up.

 

Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey also down alot. Min you, so are the miners. Some FTSE sectors looking sick today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...