marceau Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hey, I hope you shorted them. Down 4.3% today!! I opened my short this morning too. Thanks for flagging this up. Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey also down alot. Min you, so are the miners. Some FTSE sectors looking sick today. I've been in and out of BDEV since 2007 - it's been my most consistently profitable short. Looking at the chart today I'm getting all nostalgic. It's a utter dog of a company though, laden with barely manageable debt and utterly dependent on a sector which will be subdued for a decade at best, and will outright collapse at worst. Think I'll try a few shorts on the next up move, probably around the 95p area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hey, I hope you shorted them. Down 4.3% today!! I opened my short this morning too. Thanks for flagging this up. Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey also down alot. Min you, so are the miners. Some FTSE sectors looking sick today. If you make a tonne, send me a small donation, and I will pass it on to some podcasters I listen to. Like the excellent KMO: xx Or listen to him, and do it directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoface Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 If you make a tonne, send me a small donation, and I will pass it on to some podcasters I listen to. Like the excellent KMO: xx Or listen to him, and do it directly. KMO? I didn't make much - haven't closed it yet anyway. Left it open as we are top of a downward channel which could hit 60s. Then I'll pass you some. Anyway, your tips on S&P need to improve first Monday will be very interesting in SPs and Equity markets. I wonder if, over the weekend, the institutions and "powers that be" co-operate to create a buying market, thus stop the dyke from bursting. I think the will let if slip a little to 1270 or so then we are up to 1360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 29, 2011 Report Share Posted January 29, 2011 KMO? I didn't make much - haven't closed it yet anyway. Left it open as we are top of a downward channel which could hit 60s. Then I'll pass you some. Anyway, your tips on S&P need to improve first Fair enough. (and It think we are doing pretty well on GEI, if the stock market turns down now.) But listen to his podcast sometime anyway. It may not help your trading, but it will open your mind. Here's one about the need for a new economics / Interview with Prof. Chas. Hall: http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/player...T10_47_10-08_00 Both KMO and I (& others here on GEI) deliver much for free. But KMO really needs donations more than I do. So I am now tending to make donations on behalf of GEI to podcasters and bloggers now. And I will also be subscribing more to newsletters etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Nihilist Posted February 1, 2011 Report Share Posted February 1, 2011 From NZ Herald "Housing lending fell in December, month-on-month, for the first since Reserve Bank records began, the central bank's latest credit data shows. The Reserve Bank says mortgage credit fell by $50 million to $170.95 billion in December from $171 billion in November. That's the first monthly absolute dollar decline since the Reserve Bank started collecting the data in June 1998. Previously there had never been a month-on-month drop, with the previous low being an increase of $101 million from September to October last year. The biggest monthly gain recorded by the Reserve Bank in housing lending was $2.2 billion in March 2007." Could be the first cracks in the antipodean dyke ? At long last . . . perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 1, 2011 Report Share Posted February 1, 2011 CRASH CRUISE SPEED CONTINUES - while Nationwide spins like mad: Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “The property market entered 2011 with a whimper rather than a bang, with house prices edging down slightly in January. Prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month, leaving prices 1.1% lower than January 2010. “January’s data does little to alter the picture of a sluggish market that has been evident since the summer. Indeed, the three month on three month measure of house prices, which is a better measure of the underlying trend, showed a fall of 0.5%, consistent with the gradual moderation in prices that has been in place since the summer of 2010." However, the actual Nationwide data shows: Dec.10 : £162,763 Jan. 11 : £161,602 ============== : - 0.71% That's -0.71% in the last month, continuing the recent fast-falling trend. Here are the H&N-index monthly moves since August: -0.68%, -1.49%, -0.02%, -0.91%, -0.74% (that's an average drop of: -0.77%, which is right near the mid-point of -0.5 to -1.0%, which I call "crash cruise speed." /more: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jan_2011.pdf Why does anyone listen to these hard-spinning ciphers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 1, 2011 Report Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why does anyone listen to these hard-spinning ciphers? Because they are seasonally adjusted because there is a seasonal effect? They (Haliwide) have always been SA and no-one seems to mind when they are adjusted the other way in the spring? More important would be the mortgage numbers out today (ouch!) http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Instant-v...176137.html?x=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoldAsBrass Posted February 1, 2011 Report Share Posted February 1, 2011 CRASH CRUISE SPEED CONTINUES - while Nationwide spins like mad: Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “The property market entered 2011 with a whimper rather than a bang, with house prices edging down slightly in January. Prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month, leaving prices 1.1% lower than January 2010. “January’s data does little to alter the picture of a sluggish market that has been evident since the summer. Indeed, the three month on three month measure of house prices, which is a better measure of the underlying trend, showed a fall of 0.5%, consistent with the gradual moderation in prices that has been in place since the summer of 2010." However, the actual Nationwide data shows: Dec.10 : £162,763 Jan. 11 : £161,602 ============== : - 0.71% That's -0.71% in the last month, continuing the recent fast-falling trend. Here are the H&N-index monthly moves since August: -0.68%, -1.49%, -0.02%, -0.91%, -0.74% (that's an average drop of: -0.77%, which is right near the mid-point of -0.5 to -1.0%, which I call "crash cruise speed." /more: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jan_2011.pdf Why does anyone listen to these hard-spinning ciphers? My take on the endless supply of stats is that they are essentially meaningless. There is way too much noise in monthly stats. National stats over a longer period are meaningless too - what is happening in Newcastle may well be the exact opposite of what is happening in Guildford. So, who/what to take notice of? Regional stats over a long period? But the volume of transactions is so low that regional stats are so full of variations as to make discerning a trend impossible. Microscopic example. I bought a house a few months ago. An identical house in the next street (same estate) went on the market last week for £65k more than I paid. I was in a good position and the vendor was keen to sell - maybe I got a good deal (relatively speaking) - who knows? That's my point. The only value stats seem to have is to aid the general population's view of the housing market. So, hopefully, they'll stay negative for years and start re-conditioning the way people think about property. But I think to believe that house prices are falling 1% a month and that, therefore, house prices will fall 10% in a year - and 18% in 2 years - is just wrong. Might be true in Liverpool, the opposite might be true in St. Ives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 1, 2011 Report Share Posted February 1, 2011 BDEV versus the "-0.1% spin" Hey, I hope you shorted them. Down 4.3% today!! I opened my short this morning too. Thanks for flagging this up. Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey also down alot. Min you, so are the miners. Some FTSE sectors looking sick today. Haha. It is not so easy to short UK Builders here in HK, unfortunately. I see that the Builders shares are focussed on the REALITY of a near 1% drop, and continuation of "Crash Cruise speed", and meantime, the Motley Fools over on HPC are going for the spin. /see: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...158714&st=0 They are truly embarrassing foolish, when they lack "intelligent guidance". Soon, they will all be jumping into Buy as the big slide just begins. Is Realist Bear still a "bull", as per this post on Singing Pig ?: http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/thread/1139824.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 1, 2011 Report Share Posted February 1, 2011 My take on the endless supply of stats is that they are essentially meaningless. There is way too much noise in monthly stats. National stats over a longer period are meaningless too - what is happening in Newcastle may well be the exact opposite of what is happening in Guildford. So, who/what to take notice of? Regional stats over a long period? But the volume of transactions is so low that regional stats are so full of variations as to make discerning a trend impossible. Microscopic example. I bought a house a few months ago. An identical house in the next street (same estate) went on the market last week for £65k more than I paid. I was in a good position and the vendor was keen to sell - maybe I got a good deal (relatively speaking) - who knows? That's my point. The only value stats seem to have is to aid the general population's view of the housing market. So, hopefully, they'll stay negative for years and start re-conditioning the way people think about property. The data are valuable, provided you know how to use them. My advice is: IGNORE the seasonal adjustment. Focus on the actual raw data, and just be aware of the seasonality. Also: the NOISE and inefficiency is in actual prices. If you turn things around, and think this way, you can make consistently accurate forecast. Check my Property Diary and my track record, and I think you will find I have been doing rather well using the data (with some help from the Homebuilder stocks), since at least 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twopper Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 Halifax data out today http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pd...January2011.pdf UK House prices JANUARY 2011 (seasonally adjusted) Annual change -2.4% Quarterly change -0.7% Monthly change +0.8% Average Price £164,173 Does anybody know where the NSA figures can be found? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 Halifax data out today http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pd...January2011.pdf UK House prices JANUARY 2011 (seasonally adjusted) Annual change -2.4% Quarterly change -0.7% Monthly change +0.8% Average Price £164,173 Does anybody know where the NSA figures can be found? It takes a bit of Digging. I am sure these barriers are intentional (protecting their "spin") From here: http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/r...halifax_hpi.asp You can get to here: http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/ex...istoricdata.xls Results: (I have to open the XLS file on another computer) D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 155,100 - 0.3% / 162,763 = n/a = 162,435 161,498 : £162,131 :- 0.74% :137.2% : 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,602 = n/a = 164,173 16X,XXX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twopper Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 It takes a bit of Digging. I am sure these barriers are intentional (protecting their "spin") From here: http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/r...halifax_hpi.asp You can get to here: http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/ex...istoricdata.xls Results: (I have to open the XLS file on another computer) So the AllMon(NSA) is a staggering -2.4% seasonally adjusted to +0.8% AMAZING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 So the AllMon(NSA) is a staggering -2.4% seasonally adjusted to +0.8% AMAZING! Thanks. That's why I keep a record : http://tinyurl.com/GPC-data To read the market more accurately, you must dig beneath the spin (& lies?) Have anyone the superficial posters on HPC twigged this (-2.4%) yet? (i wonder) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 +0.8% is nothing like what is going on in the "real world". Here's a snapshot of my Property Bee. Look at this flat in Clapham - it has been cut from £300k to £240k in the 5 months that it has been on the market, with two cuts alone in the last month. The froth is still coming off the market, and these are the sort of reductions that are going on for the seller to actually secure a sale. Don't believe the hype. EAs know that they have to talk prices down to get a sale, and I am seeing reductions everywhere. The 0.8% Halifax figure is probably a reflection of Halifax's loan book and the special 3% rate they offer to existing customers who are moving home - and can therefore afford to "trade up". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks. That's why I keep a record : http://tinyurl.com/GPC-data To read the market more accurately, you must dig beneath the spin (& lies?) Have anyone the superficial posters on HPC twigged this (-2.4%) yet? (i wonder) Thats not what I read? You were looking at the YOY (Jan to Jan NSA) AllMonNSA Dec 2010 522.7 -3.4 161,498 Jan 2011 522.6 -2.4 161,470 I make that ~0% MOM NSA Yes you really do need to dig beneath the spin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twopper Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm going to go and have a look at this tomorrow http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-32403734.html Only just come on the market but straight away it's for sale by informal tender. Seen local properties go IT after a long time on the market but not straight away. Has anybody got any thoughts on what they hope to achieve by this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm going to go and have a look at this tomorrow http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-32403734.html Only just come on the market but straight away it's for sale by informal tender. Seen local properties go IT after a long time on the market but not straight away. Has anybody got any thoughts on what they hope to achieve by this? What is next door? Maybe they know something, and want to sell in a hurry. The place may need some work, and you'd better get a fat discount to Fair MV to reflect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meralti Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 I make that ~0% MOM NSA Yes you really do need to dig beneath the spin The NSA came in at -0.02% -- a tiny fall. I estimate the averaging the two indexes as Bubb does will give a fall of around 0.5% So no change in the trend there then. However there were less than 40,000 transactions from January -- which is a pretty small sample size compared to what it used to be, as discussed in this post their market share of new lending has fallen from about 30% to about 6%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 their market share of new lending has fallen from about 30% to about 6%. That's incredible if you consider a ~66% reduction in the number of sales on top of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 I make that ~0% MOM NSA Yes you really do need to dig beneath the spin okay, here's my H&N Index : Mon.: Rt'move : London : Hometrack chg./ Na'wide H-oldSA HalifaxSA HalifaxNSA: H&Nindex : mom : DelusIdx D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 155,100 - 0.3% / 162,763 = n/a = 162,435 161,498 : £162,131 :- 0.74% :137.2% : 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,602 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,536 :- 0.37% :138.1% : ===================================== mom: +0.32%: +1.23% : Est.DI: 138.1 % / : -0.39%: = n/a = :+1.07%: -0.02% : - 0.37% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...es_RPI-adj.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm going to go and have a look at this tomorrow http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-32403734.html Only just come on the market but straight away it's for sale by informal tender. Seen local properties go IT after a long time on the market but not straight away. Has anybody got any thoughts on what they hope to achieve by this? The best price possible. Houses that require work generate lots of interest, so they can look at lots of offers without committing. If no good offers received then maybe they will market it. I purchased by informal offer in 2005, house was on for £120K, i offered £135K cash which was accepted.In much the same condition as that house, value done up about £180k. Different market then of course. It does look a nice road and it's hard to gauge what it's worth the last time a similar house sold was no 6 in Mar 2002 for £130k assuming it needed no work. So say £30K spenk on that takes the property to around 2005 levels if you pay asking price of course. All rough figures, if your local then you know the area better. Depending how bad you want the property, that's what informal tender works on, if your position is cash etc. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 That's incredible if you consider a ~66% reduction in the number of sales on top of that! Nationwide and ING have the best deals for new mortgages. ING in particular are being very aggressive and undercutting just about everyone else in an effort to gain market share in the UK. I was quoted 2yr fixed at 3.69% with a 20% deposit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tallim Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 What is next door? Maybe they know something, and want to sell in a hurry. The place may need some work, and you'd better get a fat discount to Fair MV to reflect that. It's abandoned, the car must belong to the estate agent or relatives of the deceased owner. Informal tender is what you do when you want to sell quickly, as you're providing a deadline, but don't think you'll get best value at auction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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