No6 Posted June 1, 2009 Report Share Posted June 1, 2009 Next Bradley turn date is for next Wednesday, June 3 with another one just over 3 weeks from that on June 26. 2009 Bradley Turn Dates: January 20-21 Feburary 8-9 June 3 June 26 July 14-15 September 14-15 October 22-23 November 9 http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com/2008/11/...s-for-2009.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted November 5, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2009 2009 Bradley Turn Dates: January 20-21 Feburary 8-9 June 3 June 26 July 14-15 September 14-15 October 22-23 November 9 http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com/2008/11/...s-for-2009.html Don't forget, Monday (9th) is a Bradley turn date. The correction high in the S&P to date came at 1101 on the 21st October. The last Bradley turn date was the 22-23 October. A hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Nihilist Posted November 5, 2009 Report Share Posted November 5, 2009 Don't forget, Monday (9th) is a Bradley turn date. The correction high in the S&P to date came at 1101 on the 21st October. The last Bradley turn date was the 22-23 October. A hit. What margin of error should one allow on the Bradley model? Looks a bit patchy. November 9th = Top in Gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted November 5, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2009 What margin of error should one allow on the Bradley model? Looks a bit patchy. November 9th = Top in Gold? Not sure what margin of error to use. Check out my chart at the beginning of this post (i think i posted a similar one to you for the previous year or so) and my comments. It works well sometimes, less well at others. But always worth keeping it in mind and using it in conjunction with other tools. For example, i use elliott wave. So, looking at the stock market at the moment (US and Europe at least, not sure about Oz etc) it appears that we have had a wave down (1) from the Oct 21st high and are currently undergoing a wave 2 bounce. Wave 3 down should be next and so given there is a Bradley turn this coming Monday i would tend to be on the look out for a turn down Friday through Tuesday (day either side leeway). Another way it can be used is if you are heavily invested long say and the market has been rising for a good while into a turn date then use it as a warning to be alert and maybe lighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Nihilist Posted November 6, 2009 Report Share Posted November 6, 2009 Not sure what margin of error to use. Check out my chart at the beginning of this post (i think i posted a similar one to you for the previous year or so) and my comments. It works well sometimes, less well at others. But always worth keeping it in mind and using it in conjunction with other tools. For example, i use elliott wave. So, looking at the stock market at the moment (US and Europe at least, not sure about Oz etc) it appears that we have had a wave down (1) from the Oct 21st high and are currently undergoing a wave 2 bounce. Wave 3 down should be next and so given there is a Bradley turn this coming Monday i would tend to be on the look out for a turn down Friday through Tuesday (day either side leeway). That sounds like a pretty good approach. Intersecting road maps. I haven't looked into the Bradley model enough to make a well informed opinion, but my hesitation with the Bradley dates is that is misses some big turning points (e.g. March 2009). To be fair though, it does hit important turning points, as well as various minor turning points. But overall, this can have quite a misleading effect? Again, I will have to look into it a bit more, but using 2009 as an example, apart from the July turn date, so far they have all identified "tops" (and looking at the Elliot Wave pattern, sentiment etc., I would be surprised if November 9th was a "bottom"). Another way it can be used is if you are heavily invested long say and the market has been rising for a good while into a turn date then use it as a warning to be alert and maybe lighten up. That would have worked quite well this year. The only problem is that you would need some other indicator to identify when to hop back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Nihilist Posted November 6, 2009 Report Share Posted November 6, 2009 So, looking at the stock market at the moment (US and Europe at least, not sure about Oz etc) it appears that we have had a wave down (1) from the Oct 21st high and are currently undergoing a wave 2 bounce. I think the ASX and AUD are about to get hit for six. Australian stocks seem to fit the general corrective pattern you've outlined, although I think the longer term count is slightly more positive than the US / Europe count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted November 6, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2009 That sounds like a pretty good approach. Intersecting road maps. I haven't looked into the Bradley model enough to make a well informed opinion, but my hesitation with the Bradley dates is that is misses some big turning points (e.g. March 2009). To be fair though, it does hit important turning points, as well as various minor turning points. But overall, this can have quite a misleading effect? Again, I will have to look into it a bit more, but using 2009 as an example, apart from the July turn date, so far they have all identified "tops" (and looking at the Elliot Wave pattern, sentiment etc., I would be surprised if November 9th was a "bottom"). Seems a fair point, some bit tops missed. So, only good as a supporting tool. Would be surprised if Nov 9th was a bottom too. Am looking for a resumption of the falls. Will look to short today in anticipation. Seem to recall that Bradley worked well a year or so ago in early summer for a minor wave 2 top before big falls. Be nice if the same happened this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 7, 2009 Report Share Posted November 7, 2009 ... from DrBubb's diary ... Nice one hotmail - I started buying today and will be adding agressively to long positions early next week by averaging in. Buying the VIX as it breaks the upper bollinger band is often the best place along with the buying the full moon Of course, anything can happen, but it sure looks to me like a brief low-volume rally is now running out of steam. BGU / Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares I expect next week to be a down week. I'm comfortable with the pullback in VIX, and the low volume on today's rally. Catflap, you may want to watch Ron Walker's videos, he is clearer in his charts and explanations than I am, and his track record is good Videos : http://www.youtube.com/user/chartpattern Charts : http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorit...t?obj=ID1926808 (You can find these links easily on post #3 , on the opening page of DrBubb's diary : http://tinyurl.com/drB-Diary ) Here's Tony C: Today the market looked like it was going to break twice, but held the OEW 1061 pivot both times. As noted yesterday, this pivot needs to broken to the downside in order to reassert downside momentum again. The rally from SPX 1029 appears to be a counter choppy ABC. Recently, GS and the XLF have joined KBE and KRE in downtrends. This is the first confirmed downtrend for GS since March. With seven of our 13 foreign indices in confirmed downtrends, we feel it's only a matter of time before the US is in a confirmed downtrend as well. Best to your weekend! ("going to break twice, but held..." awaiting a "turn" date this weekend?) Larry P.: http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/LarryPesavento110609.mp3 I am not the world's best trader, but I have made a good living from it for quite a few years. last year being an exception, because I ignored signals to sell stocks, and decided to stick with "but and hold" positions on Juniors, because this plan had worked for years. I do not want to repeat that mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted August 29, 2011 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2011 Not looked at this stuff for a long time. Turn dates. I have pasted below the 2011 Bradley turns. 2011 Bradley Turn Dates List 3 most important dates Feb 17, 2011 July 29/30, 2011 December 28, 2011 Other Bradley Turn Dates · 1/16/2011 · 2/3/2011 · 6/15/2011, 6/22/2011 · 8/20/2011, 8/30/2011 · 9/26/2011 · 10/12/2011, · 10/28/2011 · 11/22-23/2011 Looking at the most important dates, i have just checked out if anything happened around these times on the S&P 500. Feb 17th: The S&P topped out on Feb 18th falling from a high of 1344 to a low of 1249 on the 16th March for what was the biggest fall since August 2010. A pretty good hit i would say. July 29th/30th: S&P hit 1304 on the 29th, falling to a low of 1101 on the 9th august in what was pretty much a straight line down covering the US downgrade period. On the face of it a good hit. However, the market was already falling going into the 29th turn date, so you might have expected the market to turn up instead rather than accelerate lower. I recall from a previous look at these turn dates that Bradley turns sometimes coincide with the acceleration period. Not entirely satisfactory, but worth bearing in mind. As for the lesser turns, - The 16th Jan one coincided with a minor 3 days reversal in an ongoing rising pattern. Hardly impressive and not really useful for trading, but a turn nonetheless. - The 3rd Feb saw a revesal higher after 2 day of falls. Hardly impressive. - The 15th June: The 16th June saw a three week reversal higher of 100 points after 6 weeks of falls from the 2nd May post 2008 crash highs. Pretty impressive and useful for trading. - 22nd June: Marked the first reversal of the rise that started a week before, lasting for 2 days but was the biggest falls during the three week rising period. Useful, but not overly impressive. - 20th August: Marked the start of the current rising pattern after a 4 day c80 point sharp fall. Turn higher started 1121 to a latest reading of 1189 (current futures as opening is still a few hours away). Useful for trading and reasonably impressive. - 30th August: Will tomorrow see a reversal lower? Overall the 2011 turn dates have been pretty good I would say and certainly worth paying attention to if trading short term. I will keep an eye on the rest to see how they perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted December 30, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2011 The turn dates in the latter part of 2011 were so so - the late Oct date worked well as many markets made their most recent tops on the 27th (1 day early), but the others were not great. Though the jury is still out on the last one of 2011, 28th Dec, with the US markets topping on the 27th and then turning down on the 28th. Markets rose yesterday and though they have not exceeded their 27th highs, it maybe a matter of time, if they do soon exceed the 27th highs it will negate the 28th turn. Anyways, for what it is worth, here are the dates for 2012: 2012 Bradley Turn Dates List 4 most important dates March 15, 2012 June 12, 2012 July 28, 2012 Dec 12, 2012 Other Bradley Turn Dates 1/11 & 1/28 2/16 & 2/22 4/11 & 4/23 8/14 $ 8/25 9/30 10/9 11/1 & 11/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 5, 2014 Report Share Posted May 5, 2014 BRADLEY Turn Dates, as identified: December 13, 2013 2014 outlook - Bradley turn dates for 2014 Notice 2014 starts out at a low point (corresponds to my projections of cycles bottoming end of December or early January). Also corresponds with a new moon. Mid year is projected as the high point for the year (preliminary work shows this should align with my projections). Is the Model UPSIDE DOWN ?? IWM /Russell ........... Dec.2013 - End Dec.2014 TZA /3x Bear IWM ... Dec.2013 - End Dec.2014 Key dates are 1/1, 7/16 and 11/20 in 2014. I'll post my 2014 projections before year end and other projections when/if I come across them. - Posted by Inlet at 8:39 AM == > http://swingcycles.blogspot.hk/2013/12/2014-outlook-bradley-turn-dates-for-2014.html Mike Wagner / January 16, 2014 at 2:28 PM === The author of this blog has no idea that the Bradley Siderograph is NOT displaying Polarity! ie.) January 1st is not signaling a "bottom" as the author claims. The Bradley merely presents potential turning points. Permabear Doomster . . . I'm surprised that you have never looked into what the "Bradley" bases its turns on given all of the postings by that Blimp Indicator blogger "Alberta Rocks" and his Canadian side-kick BoboM. It was developed by Donald Bradley in the 1940's and Bradley assigned numerical values to certain PLANETARY constellations for every day, and the sum is the siderograph. See Manfred Zimmel's "Amanita" blog for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 5, 2014 Report Share Posted May 5, 2014 The DOLLAR - and TURN Dates Another website, suggested that Bradley Turn dates were doing a better job of predicting Turns in the US Dollar (DXY) Here's the projected profile for the Bradley model in 2013 Here's the DXY from Dec.2012 thru June 2014 ... update Here's the Model for 2014 ... and the DXY from Dec.2013 thru June 2014 ... update What John Hampson said about the Bradley model: I have found Bradley turns too hit and miss to be a part of my regular toolkit, but for those hits when they occur, I like to keep it on the radar each year. Bradley turns are based on the planets, and it should be noted that whilst chart maps are built on them each year, the turn dates can be either lows or highs so do not actually indicate a path for the market, only trend change points. == > source: http://solarcycles.net/2013/01/09/tools-for-2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 5, 2014 Report Share Posted May 5, 2014 May 5, 2014 weekly outlook Last week continued to show some residual strength. The Dow set new highs and most of the major averages were up around 1% for the week. The market shows little evidence it is going up a lot or down a lot near term. That is how tops are made, they bore investors into inaction. Still our envelope analysis is on a sell signal from just over a week ago, so the market should continue sideways with a downside bias this week. The one month cycle is up for the next 7 or so trading days. The 2 month and 4 month cycles are down into the end of May. The 8 month cycle is up and tops near the end of May (as a mid-cycle slump develops as 3 shorter cycles bottom), In summary - minor weakness next week. Here is a visual: > http://swingcycles.blogspot.hk/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 5, 2014 Report Share Posted May 5, 2014 Peak Speculation And Russell 2000 Speculation typically peaks out at solar cycle peaks. In 1989, the Nikkei was the speculative target reaching p/e>80 as it topped out at the solar cycle 22 peak. In 2000, the Nasdaq soared to p/e>80 as it topped out at the solar cycle 23 maximum. Now, at the current solar cycle 24 peak we see a broad range of historic topping valuations in equities but it is particularly the small caps that have been subjected and bid up to the extreme, as the trailing p/e for the Russell 2000 currently stands at >100. Remove the companies with negative earnings, which is about 20% of them, and it would be 23, which is at the top of its historical pricing: Source: Andrewunknown http://solarcycles.net/2014/05/01/peak-speculation-and-russell-2000/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 6, 2014 Report Share Posted May 6, 2014 Swiss Franc (FXF) may be breaking out ... update There seems to have been a nice regular cycle in operation. I would not rule out an inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 14, 2014 Report Share Posted May 14, 2014 If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States Source: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com By Michael SnyderIf Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States Does the economy move in predictable waves, cycles or patterns? There are many economists that believe that it does, and if their projections are correct, the rest of this decade is going to be pure hell for the United States. Many mainstream economists want nothing to do with economic cycle theorists, but it should be noted that economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades. Of course none of the theories discussed below is perfect, but it is very interesting to note that all of them seem to indicate that the U.S. economy is about to enter a major downturn. So will the period of 2015 to 2020 turn out to be pure hell for the United States? We will just have to wait and see. One of the most prominent economic cycle theories is known as “the Kondratieff wave”. It was developed by a Russian economist named Nikolai Kondratiev, and as Wikipedia has noted, his economic theories got him into so much trouble with the Russian government that he was eventually executed because of them… == > http://chrisinmaryville.net/economic-cycle-theorists-correct-2015-2020-will-pure-hell-united-states.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 23, 2014 Report Share Posted May 23, 2014 The DOLLAR - and TURN Dates Another website, suggested that Bradley Turn dates were doing a better job of predicting Turns in the US Dollar (DXY) Here's the projected profile for the Bradley model in 2013 Here's the DXY from Dec.2012 thru June 2014 ... update Here's the Model for 2014 ... and the DXY from Dec.2013 thru June 2014 ... update What John Hampson said about the Bradley model: I have found Bradley turns too hit and miss to be a part of my regular toolkit, but for those hits when they occur, I like to keep it on the radar each year. Bradley turns are based on the planets, and it should be noted that whilst chart maps are built on them each year, the turn dates can be either lows or highs so do not actually indicate a path for the market, only trend change points. == > source: http://solarcycles.net/2013/01/09/tools-for-2013/ = So far the May 6th Turn date HAS worked well for the US Dollar Here's UUP ; the 2x Bull etf on the Dollar... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 16, 2014 Report Share Posted July 16, 2014 TURN DATE ? The Title is WRONG Here... I think if it said "US Dollar Block", it would make more sense - since you will not see a "dollar setback" in the price of the US DOLLAR: US Dollar Suffers Serious Setback One More Nail in the Coffin : By Dr Stuart Jeanne Bramhall Today Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa struck another blow against the US petrodollar in Fortaleza Brazil. Leaders of the five emerging nations officially agreed to form their own development bank to rival the World Bank and IMF. The bank will be centered in Shanghai, its first president will be Indian and it will begin with an initial capitalization of 100 billion dollars. The five countries referred to as BRICS have long complained about the not-so-subtle economic warfare the US and Europe wage against developing nations via the World Bank and IMF. The World Bank/IMF Protection Scheme As John Perkins eloquently describes in Confessions of an Economic Hitman, these US-dominated agencies operate a mafia-like protection scheme on the global south. Economic hitmen like Perkins pressure leaders of developing nations to accept development loans for massive infrastructure projects (dams, bridges, super highways, etc.) they neither want nor need. If they accept, their economies are paralyzed by crushing debt repayments. If they refuse, they risk assassination or being overthrown through US military intervention or a CIA coup. In nearly every case, the loans go to specific US corporations who build the dams, bridges and super highways. In addition to crushing debt repayments, the IMF also impose their notorious “structural adjustment” programs on debtor nations. As a condition to renewing their loans, these countries are forced to enact to open their economies further to US and European investors and enact a variety of austerity measure. These typically include privatization of state-owned utilities (by selling them to US and European corporations) and reduction of public spending by laying off state workers and cutting pensions and food and energy subsidies. == > source: http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/07/15/us-dollar-suffers-serious-setback/ ========================= Let's look at what has happened to the US Dollar in recent weeks. It hasn't been sliding, as this news story might suggest it would: DXY / Trade-weighted Dollar ... update I note that the Bradley has an important TURN DATE on 7/16 - that's today: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4189&page=2 In recent months, the Bradley Turns seems to have worked better for the USD than for stocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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