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Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

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BINGO !

6/ (( Barrons article ?? ))

...it was so hard to find, I will post the whole thing here...

 

All That Glitters Is Not Gold

By VITO J. RANCANELLI

 

Tanzanian Royalty rallied on the reputation of CEO James Sinclair.

But the gold guru's actions cast doubt on the exploration company's fortunes.

 

 

GOLD EXPLORER TANZANIAN ROYALTY EXPLORATION HAS NO revenue, no earnings and no proven gold, as well as some accounting issues. So why do its shares trade at a premium to peers that seem to be in much better shape?

 

It helps that its chairman and chief executive, James E. Sinclair, is famous for correctly forecasting gold prices, and he is very bullish on the metal on his avidly followed newsletter-style Website, www.jsmineset.com. Over the years, Sinclair's views on gold have been sought out by newspapers like the New York Times and on cable-TV networks like CNN. Barron's has interviewed him and run his advertising.

 

BA-AP302A_Gold__NS_20090410165653.jpg

Jim Sinclair, shown on the U.S. Rare Coin Investments Website, is bullish on gold prices.

He expects them to rise to about $1,650 an ounce by 2011.

 

So it is surprising to learn that the widely known bull on gold has been a steady seller of shares of his own gold-related company.

 

 

Tanzanian Royalty (ticker: TRE) is a small-cap Canadian outfit (including its predecessor) that has been looking for gold for a decade. None of its properties, all in Tanzania, have yet shown economically viable mineral reserves, as defined by regulators. Were it valued more like rivals with similar cash and gold reserves, its share price would be substantially lower than the current $4.05.

 

TRE's market capitalization is $370 million. Some rival miners with more cash on their balance sheets than TRE and actual gold have market caps one-sixth that size.

 

Dubbed Mr. Gold by the media for prescient calls on gold in the late 1970s and 1980s, Sinclair ran his own precious-metals trading firm in those days. On his Website and in interviews, a bullish Sinclair today says gold will trade as high as $1,650 an ounce by January 2011 and says he would wager $1 million that it will. Gold was trading at about $881 an ounce Friday.

 

In an interview with Barron's last week, Sinclair disputed the view of TRE's shares as overvalued, saying the market cap was due to its less-capital-intensive structure and the potential of its properties. Moreover, he promised that a third-party evaluation of its important Kigosi property in Tanzania would be ready in "about six months."

 

While TRE puts out press releases on his share purchases, the CEO says he isn't required to put out press releases on his share sales.

 

In addition to Sinclair's devoted following -- he is sometimes referred to as "Uncle Jim" on Yahoo!'s TRE message boards -- shareholders could be speculating that he will sell TRE to a big miner. Though he was ousted as chairman of Sutton Resources in 1995, some remember that Sutton was bought by Canadian gold giant Barrick Gold (ABX) in April 1999 for its Tanzanian properties. Not everyone credits Sinclair for the deal, but some do.

 

There is no question that Tanzanian shares have done extremely well since Sinclair and his family became its largest stockholders in April of 2002 (as a result of a merger they ended up with about 25% of the shares, which trade on the American Stock Exchange, and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker TNX.Canada). TRE shares have soared about 711% since then. That trounces the 218% rise in the metal itself over the same period, though TRE has no gold reserves. Meanwhile, the American Stock Exchange Gold Bugs Index (HUI) composed of companies involved in gold mining -- many of which have gold in hand -- is up much less, just 198%. Since last summer, the credit crisis has hurt the juniors, as the small prospectors are called, on worries that they won't be able to get the financing needed to develop mines. In that time, TRE has fallen less than its peers.

 

/see:

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OK, so reading all this, you (Bubb) and others blame Sinclair for:

 

(1) Giving some friends of gold a platform (his blog), and forming some kind of gold-sub-community (CIGAs).

(2) Commenting on other things than just gold.

(3) Running a gold mine which has possibly overvalued shares (are these reports on no reserves up-to-date?).

(4) Not only buying, but also selling shares of that company every now and then.

(5) Advising people to buy and hold gold since 2001

 

I have to say, I don't care too much about (1) [some people need the group feel], (3) [not his fault, is it?], and (4) [he is a trader, what do you expect?].

(2) is okay, because I think he has interesting comments to make every now and then.

 

The important thing is that he was spot on with (5).

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Gold_USD_LOG_GUESS.png

 

EDIT: One of the comments below the SeekingAlpha article says "the FORMULA he laid out in Sept06 was history in advance." I would agree. Sinclair found a very concise and understandable formulation of what started to unravel in 2007.

 

EDIT2: Bubb, have you read the comments underneath this article and also further down in the Kitco thread? Seems to me, most of your arguments 'against' Sinclair find very good responses there. I like the style in which Sinclair writes, even if he might be wrong or over the top sometimes. No one forces me to read what he writes.

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I'd be very careful taking too much trading advice from him, since it is possible he will miss some very big down moves.

Like in 2008, and maybe in the weeks and months to come. Now, I may be wrong about that, and watch gold shoot up

to $1200, $1600, or $2000, while Sinclair and his fans make huge returns. But my thing is about trading the swings,

not buy and hold. And I have multiplied my money by 5X or more doing that. Better than if I had just put everything

into the yellow metal and held. Even so, I may be wrong about Gold for months at a time, but that doesnt invalidate

a successful trading strategy.

No one is denying your skill in trading DrBubb, what you need to realise that a lot of Sinclair followers would not consider themselves to be traders. The readers of jsmineset have been educated in what is going on in the world currently and have taken positions in gold to preserve their wealth during the fiat currency crisis.

 

Though you have managed to multiply your money by 5X trading if most others attempted it they wouldn't be so successful, you are a professional after all. I am sure I could take a lot better pictures than you ;)

 

 

 

 

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OK, so reading all this, you (Bubb) and others blame Sinclair for:

 

(1) Giving some friends of gold a platform (his blog), and forming some kind of gold-sub-community (CIGAs).

(2) Commenting on other things than just gold.

(3) Running a gold mine which has possibly overvalued shares (are these reports on no reserves up-to-date?).

(4) Not only buying, but also selling shares of that company every now and then.

(5) Advising people to buy and hold gold since 2001

 

I have to say, I don't care too much about (1) [some people need the group feel], (3) [not his fault, is it?], and (4) [he is a trader, what do you expect?].

(2) is okay, because I think he has interesting comments to make every now and then.

 

The important thing is that he was spot on with (5).

 

Come on, GF.

Do I need to spell it out?

Here's what I will say, I looked closely at buying shares in Tan Range, and found it ridiculously overvalued by every measure that I use. How do you suppose that happens? Aren't you interested in the fact that he set up his website a few months after he became involved with Tan Range? And then I hear that he has been quietly selling shares, while blasting it in press releases: "the Company's Chairman and CEO, Mr. James E. Sinclair's total share placements to date aggregate in excess of $17 million." But Sinclair doesnt mention in these Press Releases that he has been actively selling shares the whole time.

 

No this may be fine with you, since as you said, you do not shares in TRE. Nor do I, but I think it says something about his integrity. (Tom Obrien made exactly this comment on his podcast, which I reported here.)

 

One of the reasons I was never a huge fan of Sinclair, is early on I found some of the things he wrote about Chase and its involvement in the Gold market were wrong: either lies or exaggerations. I know, because I worked there. And one of my bosses was also the bosses of Chase's bullion area. So I was in a pretty good position to assess the veracity of his statements about that organisation. (BTW, why do you refuse to believe me? My job at Chase was quite senior, and I had a my better access to these people than JS has or had. How could you possibly doubt my integrity?)

 

Having said all this, I will not deny that the guy has some useful things to say about the Gold market. But you need to see that the existence of his website has probably helped him to increase the value of his "$17 Million" worth of investments in Tan Range, probably by a few millions. So maybe he is not giving his views "for free." I see a clear potential hidden agenda. I hasten to add, that I see no evidence the man is doing anything illegal, he is just using the platform that he has created in a way that helps his own stock and bullion investments.

 

BTW, here's the share price: Tan Range vs. HUI ... update : TRE-only

xx1q.gif

 

TRE had its big run in 2005-6, when JS and his bullish views on gold were getting the most traction.

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What Turns me off about JS, is his desire to turn an investment into a personality cult.

or a political movement

 

Here's how someone else put it:

 

People calling themselves 'Comrades in Golden Arms' are setting themselves up for disappointment and a weak handed position due to the 'at war' imagery. That is because emotion enters through this image and in war there are winners and there are losers. To me, if you have fought the gold wars long enough, you still lose even if you one day 'win' as your hyperinfaltionary ship comes in. You lose because the constant 'at war' stance has degraded you, taken chunks out of your being. In short, I do not think it is healthy. Also, gold is a tool. We do not want to worship golden idols here. We want to avoid the damage being inflicted by a corrupt and bankrupt system. Gold is not the be all and end all. It is a means to an end.

 

/more: http://seekingalpha.com/article/133845-jim...communal-emails

This is why I have my reservations about Sinclair and the gold bug position in general. Gold bugism is way too emotional towards gold. Also, gold has a psychological power that one should be wary off, as an ancient philosopher said; gold is tried by a touchstone, and men by gold. The same could be said about money.

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No one is denying your skill in trading DrBubb, what you need to realise that a lot of Sinclair followers would not consider themselves to be traders. The readers of jsmineset have been educated in what is going on in the world currently and have taken positions in gold to preserve their wealth during the fiat currency crisis.

 

Though you have managed to multiply your money by 5X trading if most others attempted it they wouldn't be so successful, you are a professional after all. I am sure I could take a lot better pictures than you ;)

 

JS is helping people to "stay the course" in Gold. Thus far, that has been a good thing for many.

 

I will also take my hat off to him, he seems to have exited close to $800 at the top of the last big run in gold. Let's hope that he will do the same this time, and he and his followers will get out. I also acknowledge that he made investors money in Suttun Resources by selling out at a good price. (In fact, I was a small shareholder in Sutton myself, which is why I looked into Tan Range.)

 

But none of this means that he does not ramp his stock thru the JSMineset website, and in various interviews where he gets a far bigger audience because of the Gold market views that he offers on his site.

 

Should I be ramping my own company here? I have resisted doing that. There are one or two threads that mention the company's name, but as a general rule, I tend to stay away from commenting on it, because I worry about how that would look. Maybe if I was chairman, as JS is with TRE, I would have to find a different way of living with the dual role, as he has done.

 

I dont think Sinclair is a bad guy. I actually find most of his views on the gold market to be interesting, and rather accurate. And I do hope he and his followers make money. I just think it is important to have a balanced and informed view on him and his involvements. Please point out anything I have said about him where you think I have been wrong or unfair.

 

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This is why I have my reservations about Sinclair and the gold bug position in general. It is way too emotional towards gold. Also, gold has a psychological power that you need to be wary off, as an ancient philosopher said; gold is tried by a touchstone, and men by gold. The same could be said about money.

 

thank you.

 

I'm glad some folks here understand my comments, and can see some value in maintaining a more neutral, less "ideological" view towards the Gold market.

 

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One of the reasons I was never a huge fan of Sinclair, is early on I found some of the things he wrote about Chase and its involvement in the Gold market were wrong: either lies or exaggerations. I know, because I worked there. And one of my bosses was also the bosses of Chase's bullion area. So I was in a pretty good position to assess the veracity of his statements about that organisation. (BTW, why do you refuse to believe me? My job at Chase was quite senior, and I had a my better access to these people than JS has or had. How could you possibly doubt my integrity?)

I think you have not mentioned the Chase story recently, maybe you have mentioned it some tim ago. I do not doubt your integrity, and indeed I wrote above that I think Sinclair gets things wrong every now and then. But I do agree with some of his more general points of view.

 

The story with the conincidence of his mine and the blog, I guess it has to do with him calling the gold bottom in 2001 and reappearing again in public. I would not read too much into it. He doesn't mention the company very often on the blog, usually he mentions some more general stories on Tanzania. I don't find this too suspect because everyone knows his vested interest. Whether the company is fairly priced or not, or if it carries a special Sinclair premium (which I can believe), that's an entirely different story. Also, if you think all this is an evil Sinclair conspiration to suck unsuspecting people into buying his stock (which I really don't think), then that's again an entirely new story.

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The story with the conincidence of his mine and the blog, I guess it has to do with him calling the gold bottom in 2001 and reappearing again in public. I would not read too much into it. He doesn't mention the company very often on the blog, usually he mentions some more general stories on Tanzania. I don't find this too suspect because everyone knows his vested interest. Whether the company is fairly priced or not, or if it carries a special Sinclair premium (which I can believe), that's an entirely different story. Also, if you think all this is an evil Sinclair conspiration to suck unsuspecting people into buying his stock (which I really don't think), then that's again an entirely new story.

 

It is not an "evil conspiracy", just a convenient use of his platform, and the reputation he has built around it.

 

Certainly, his interviews get a greater audience, and the valuation levels suggests that helps TRE.

 

You havent commented on his "quiet selling" while announcing widely his share placements. That doesnt leave a good taste for me.

 

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You havent commented on his "quiet selling" while announcing widely his share placements. That doesnt leave a good taste for me.

I don't know more on this than the comments you posted. However, I read repeatedly about that some things are run differently in royalties companies. Not sure if this could explain any of the activities that look more suspicious to you.

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I don't know more on this than the comments you posted. However, I read repeatedly about that some things are run differently in royalties companies. Not sure if this could explain any of the activities that look more suspicious to you.

 

???

That has nothing to do with a royalty company!

 

He is blatently misleading investors. Although I doubt it is illegal, I find it unethical, as does Tom Obrien

 

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JS is helping people to "stay the course" in Gold. Thus far, that has been a good thing for many.

 

I will also take my hat off to him, he seems to have exited close to $800 at the top of the last big run in gold. Let's hope that he will do the same this time, and he and his followers will get out. I also acknowledge that he made investors money in Suttun Resources by selling out at a good price. (In fact, I was a small shareholder in Sutton myself, which is why I looked into Tan Range.)

 

But none of this means that he does not ramp his stock thru the JSMineset website, and in various interviews where he gets a far bigger audience because of the Gold market views that he offers on his site.

 

Should I be ramping my own company here? I have resisted doing that. There are one or two threads that mention the company's name, but as a general rule, I tend to stay away from commenting on it, because I worry about how that would look. Maybe if I was chairman, as JS is with TRE, I would have to find a different way of living with the dual role, as he has done.

 

I dont think Sinclair is a bad guy. I actually find most of his views on the gold market to be interesting, and rather accurate. And I do hope he and his followers make money. I just think it is important to have a balanced and informed view on him and his involvements. Please point out anything I have said about him where you think I have been wrong or unfair.

I have been reading jsmineset daily now for 2 years and have never seen him ramping his own stock on there, in fact the only time I have heard him mention TRE was after the article in Barrons. Can you show me any evidence of this ramping that you are sure he has been doing?

 

 

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I have been reading jsmineset daily now for 2 years and have never seen him ramping his own stock on there, in fact the only time I have heard him mention TRE was after the article in Barrons. Can you show me any evidence of this ramping that you are sure he has been doing?

 

Sure. (He is more subtle than that.)

Look at the interviews he does, and the (misleading) Press Releases.

As I said before, I am not the only one bothered by this.

 

Ask yourself, would you even think about buying shares in such an overvalued company, you were not a regular reader of his Blog. I looked at the company, and did my own evaluation, BECAUSE I was impressed with his Blog comments. I am sure others do the same, and some are less cautious and buy anyway.

 

I wish him well, but I prefer to buy cheaper stocks.

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Sure. (He is more subtle than that.)

Look at the interviews he does, and the (misleading) Press Releases.

As I said before, I am not the only one bothered by this.

 

Ask yourself, would you even think about buying shares in such an overvalued company, you were not a regular reader of his Blog. I looked at the company, and did my own evaluation, BECAUSE I was impressed with his Blog comments. I am sure others do the same, and some are less cautious and buy anyway.

 

I wish him well, but I prefer to buy cheaper stocks.

As I say I have been reading his site daily for 2 years and have never heard him ramping his own stock. I also have never felt at all tempted to buy stock in his company. To tell you the truth I didn't even look because he was involved, I figured it would be over valued with a sort of celebrity value attached.

 

I am sure that part of the reason his company is so overvalued is that some people do buy it because of how much he has helped them on jsmineset, but then you can't hold that against him. No one is forcing anyone to buy stocks, surely this is just a case that the buyer should be aware.

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Sure. (He is more subtle than that.)

Look at the interviews he does, and the (misleading) Press Releases.

As I said before, I am not the only one bothered by this.

Bubb, what sizes are we speaking of?

 

(1) Does he hold 25%, and he sells 0.1% every now and then?

 

(2) Or did he hold 25%, and sold each of the last 4 years 5% and is now down to the last 5%?

 

Could you try and put all this into perspective? Thanks!

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Latest entry on Jsmineset;

 

My Dearest Friends,

 

We are in a storm of verbal intervention where the US dollar is concerned. Everything from statements that cannot be based on data such as the US dollar is "the mother of all carry trades," to the warnings to the East by Western Central banks not to apply currency controls as they are ineffective, to the Maginot Line drawn in the sand in the Euro at $1.50, are all structured to slow down the decline of the US dollar at a critical point in its descent.

 

On the other side of the coin the fundamentals for the dollar are not supportive.

 

All the moves towards currency diversification by central banks remain in place. Many central banks and Vietnam by increasing its importing of gold are following in the footsteps of India and China.

 

There is no question that there are governmental stops in the price of gold. If you read Armstrong’s conviction last evening, you know about the effects of imports and the ongoing long-term problems in the housing market and financial sectors that render no fundamental support for the dollar.

 

As the dollar makes it’s way below key levels already outlined to you and gold moves toward $1650 and beyond, there will be times like now where the advice of top callers seems rational, but is not.

 

I do not address my comments to those seeking a tip sheet or who are traders. I see that as contra-productive in the gold field now.

 

Understanding what is happening in complex currency trades, the impact of imports/export, and the financial industry that is now able to mark up toxic paper at will is not easy.

We have traveled together from $248 to the present level.

 

Those who have been here from the beginning will recall that when gold passed $529.40 it entered into a runaway and trading was suggested only for professionals.

 

I would like to reiterate that it is only going to get harder between here and $1650 and after on the way to Alf and Armstrong’s numbers. Swings can be hundreds of dollars from high to low in single days.

 

Look at this as insurance unavailable anywhere else.

 

Treat gold like the insurance policy it is with your gold and gold related item cost being the cost of the arrangement.

 

Ask yourself if you are succumbing to a top caller if you really want to be long dollars for any appreciable period of time.

 

Do not be run ragged by algorithm and hedge fund trading. Carry markets can be extremely violent.

 

Look at CIT and Middle America. Look at unemployment, and do not succumb to the new normal in a depraved economic world.

 

Have courage because you are going to need more than you already have called upon.

 

I am here for you to the absolute ability of one man communicating. Speculate if you must, but don’t call me when you hit the fan.

 

For those that understand the insurance character of gold, stand strong and stay the course.

 

Respectfully yours,

Jim

 

I don't hold any position in gold at present, long term I am bullish, short and medium term I don't know what's going to happen.

 

I read the above and interpreted it as, look how far we have come together, do not let a dollar rally and a collapse in the price of gold to $800/$900 shake you out, remember why you bought it in the first place. I think he thinks there is going to be a sharp contraction in the gold price in the near future.

 

Regarding TRE, gold is the proxy for him to be the ultra bull. FRE is in the slipstream! I love the way he accuses others of "management of perspective economics" when he is the great practitioner himself!

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I don't hold any position in gold at present, long term I am bullish, short and medium term I don't know what's going to happen.

If you don't know what is going to happen in the short and medium, but long term are bullish why don't you have a position.

 

I will tell you what is going to happen, it is going to get more expensive as it has been each year for the last 9. I find it amazing how many posts we get saying they are bullish long term but don't have a position, all you are doing is missing the greatest bull run for centuries.

 

You aren't bullish long term, medium term or short term, you have no exposure at all.

 

I am bullish on all three at the moment.

 

 

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If you don't know what is going to happen in the short and medium, but long term are bullish why don't you have a position.

 

I will tell you what is going to happen, it is going to get more expensive as it has been each year for the last 9. I find it amazing how many posts we get saying they are bullish long term but don't have a position, all you are doing is missing the greatest bull run for centuries.

 

You aren't bullish long term, medium term or short term, you have no exposure at all.

 

I am bullish on all three at the moment.

 

I think there are better opportunities in the market elsewhere. I do not wish to be exposed to the risk of the dollar carry trade correcting. The gold price (Comex) is based on the availability of credit that is extended to small speculators, large traders and commercials who trade futures that allow them to take highly leveraged positions extending the price beyond what it would be if that credit was unavailable or reduced. Now if credit is reduced by increasing margin requirements, can you tell me who has the most capital behind them in order to continue to fund their positions? The small speculators, the large traders or the commercials?

 

Gold-1.jpg

 

We are still in a massive credit bubble. I've opened several trading accounts in the US. By simply completing a form and sending it to them they are willing to allow me to buy $30K worth of stock with $3K. That is in my mind reckless, it's just that it's become "normal" therefore most don't consider that there could be some serious risks attached to that if you look at it through a systemic lens. A more conservative amount of leverage might mean putting down $9K or something like that.

 

If one asset draws capital from all over the world, away from US treasuries, stocks, etc it could at some point be viewed as a systemic risk. Look what happened with oil when it ran up, it created serious difficulties throughout the world. We have seen from government actions that they are really clueless, the problem was caused by too much credit and at the moment they think the solution is more credit. It's very easy to state the case for a gold standard by making the argument that the value of currencies would be more stable. So some are saying that the solution is gold - what I am saying is that the misguided people holding the levers of power could actually begin to view it the opposite way - gold is the problem causing people to lose faith in fiat etc.

 

What I am attempting to do is to learn how to trade, if I tie my capital up in gold I cannot do that. If I can learn how to trade and regularly make profits I believe I will make more money doing that over the course of my lifetime.

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I think there are better opportunities in the market elsewhere. I do not wish to be exposed to the risk of the dollar carry trade correcting. The gold price (Comex) is based on the availability of credit that is extended to small speculators, large traders and commercials who trade futures that allow them to take highly leveraged positions extending the price beyond what it would be if that credit was unavailable or reduced. Now if credit is reduced by increasing margin requirements, can you tell me who has the most capital behind them in order to continue to fund their positions? The small speculators, the large traders or the commercials?

 

Gold-1.jpg

 

What I am attempting to do is to learn how to trade, if I tie my capital up in gold I cannot do that. If I can learn how to trade and regularly make profits I believe I will make more money doing that over the course of my lifetime.

 

Post of the day! :lol:

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If one asset draws capital from all over the world, away from US treasuries, stocks, etc it could at some point be viewed as a systemic risk. Look what happened with oil when it ran up, it created serious difficulties throughout the world. We have seen from government actions that they are really clueless, the problem was caused by too much credit and at the moment they think the solution is more credit. It's very easy to state the case for a gold standard by making the argument that the value of currencies would be more stable. So some are saying that the solution is gold - what I am saying is that the misguided people holding the levers of power could actually begin to view it the opposite way - gold is the problem causing people to lose faith in fiat etc.

 

I think that's an very good point, PB, in what was a very thoughtful post.

A parabolic rise in gold could result in governments taking it off your hands or at least banning you from using it.

Gold's rise since 2000 has managed to stay below the radar. Long may that continue.

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I think there are better opportunities in the market elsewhere. I do not wish to be exposed to the risk of the dollar carry trade correcting. The gold price (Comex) is based on the availability of credit that is extended to small speculators, large traders and commercials who trade futures that allow them to take highly leveraged positions extending the price beyond what it would be if that credit was unavailable or reduced. Now if credit is reduced by increasing margin requirements, can you tell me who has the most capital behind them in order to continue to fund their positions? The small speculators, the large traders or the commercials?

I don't see better opportunities elsewhere. You also need to understand that gold is not acting inverse to the dollar anymore, look at Fridays action the USDX went up 0.28 and gold went up $6.30.

 

You are completely ignoring the driving force in the gold markets currently, namely central banks and large hedge funds. These are not the small speculators that you are referring too. The leveraged speculators are mainly the bullion banks (JP Morgan, Goldman, HSBC, etc,) on the short side, they are currently being squeezed which is the reason there is a commercial signal failure in progress.

 

Large hedge funds now getting involved on the long side, Einhorn, Tudor Jones & Paulson. Paulson has just announced that he is starting a new gold fund and personally putting 250 million into it in January.

 

Central bank selling which has been going on for decades now is reaching and end and will turn positive this quarter.

 

These are not buyers using leverage as you suggest. You need to remember how small the gold and especially silver markets actually are.

 

Why are you long term bullish on gold and how long have you held that belief? Also how long have you not had a position, is it a temporary situation as you believe there will be a deflationary pullback, a la RH?

 

I think you will keep finding reasons to not buy gold, that is your choice but you are missing an established bull run of 10 years. You also will be missing the mania stage of this bull run when the best gains will be made. Maybe it would help if you started to realise that people are protecting their wealth rather than thinking of buyers as small speculators. Gold through out history has acted as a stabilising force, we are currently in very unstable times and gold will rise to take up it time honoured purpose once again.

 

I see at least $1350 by April 2010, which is probably too cautious. What is your price projection and where will you buy?

 

This is a big story IMO, Paulson is personally putting 250 Million into this fund, so the fund is going to grow to billions, which is going into holes in the ground.

 

Paulson & Co. to launch gold fund

 

 

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People are far too quick to forget that governments make the rules. If something is percieved as threatening a society, government or an economy, steps will be taken to counteract it.

 

There are many debates taking place about suppression of PMs so there is already a body of evidence to support a desire for reduced PM prices.

 

The gold barometer tells us there is an economic sickness in the world, the symptoms are being treated, it's not improbable that the messenger becomes more of a target the more pronounced the underlying problems become.

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People are far too quick to forget that governments make the rules. If something is percieved as threatening a society, government or an economy, steps will be taken to counteract it.

 

There are many debates taking place about suppression of PMs so there is already a body of evidence to support a desire for reduced PM prices.

 

The gold barometer tells us there is an economic sickness in the world, the symptoms are being treated, it's not improbable that the messenger becomes more of a target the more pronounced the underlying problems become.

 

Agreed. So long as you have governments who believe they know best, you cannot even be 100% safe in gold. At the end of the day, they make the rules. That said, in my view, we're still a long way away from there being anything like confiscation. Paper currencies will probably have to blow up before we get to that stage.

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