Jump to content
G0ldfinger

Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

Recommended Posts

For those who may not have spotted the connection,

this is from the Gold Royalty thread:

 

Fact is, TRX was massively overvalued.

Friendly CIGA's pushed it up.

 

(JS's ramping of gold, also helped to ramp his stock.)

 

Even now:

TRX : $2.42 x 100.0mn shs = $242 million

 

That's no bargain for a company that:

"aims to produce around 100 000 oz/y of gold at its Buckreef project" in 2014,

and still needs to raise more debt finance and build the mine.

 

TRX is not mainly a Royalty co., and should not be on this list, I suppose

 

/see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15584

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sinclair interview - http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/12_Jim_Sinclair_-_5_Major_US_Banks_Could_Fail_From_Derivatives.html

 

With gold rallying toward the $1,650 level, today King World News reached out to legendary trader Jim Sinclair to get his take on what is happening. Jim Sinclair’s KWN audio will be released today and when asked if the technical damage that many claimed existed in the gold market was a bit of nonsense and a scare tactic by the cartel, Sinclair stated, “Exactly, correct. (It was) a product of algorithms, of manipulation, of chart drawing, a product of the times. They (the commercials) will sell again at $1,681, but it’s just more delay in a drama.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sinclair interview - http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/12_Jim_Sinclair_-_5_Major_US_Banks_Could_Fail_From_Derivatives.html

 

With gold rallying toward the $1,650 level, today King World News reached out to legendary trader Jim Sinclair to get his take on what is happening. Jim Sinclair’s KWN audio will be released today and when asked if the technical damage that many claimed existed in the gold market was a bit of nonsense and a scare tactic by the cartel, Sinclair stated, “Exactly, correct. (It was) a product of algorithms, of manipulation, of chart drawing, a product of the times. They (the commercials) will sell again at $1,681, but it’s just more delay in a drama.”

Yep.

Tom Obrien and Larry Pesavento both think Gold is headed back down.

 

The volume on the rally has not been impressive.

I have taken nice profits on most of my Silver and Gold calls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Terminal Beginning Of The Western Financial World

 

My Dear Extended Family,

 

The real terminal beginning of the Western Financial world was this week.

 

Kicking the can down the road is limited by the practical viability of the US dollar and US Treasury Securities market.

 

QE will go to infinity because there simply is no other tool that can create the amounts of liquidity required instantly by the destruction of the Western world financial system. This destruction was delivered to us via those that have securitized everything.

 

When you add to this that no default will be declared a default by the International Swaps and Derivative Association you have a guarantee that QE will go to infinity at the cost of the US currency market first and the US bond market second. I put this epic event in the year 2015. I give the US dollar no longer than June of 2012 before the cracks in its armor are visible to all.

 

The deal that set this in place happened in December when the Fed was confirmed as the lender of last resort to the entire Western financial world when it granted in excess of $500 billion in US dollar swaps to the European Central Bank. The ECB then in turn lent those funds to its member banks to buy European debt in order to paint the auctions of the European debt as viable.

 

At the same time the Chinese have agreed to be a port in the storm to the euro itself, explaining why it is trading above 1.30 when in truth it should be trading below 1.20 under present circumstances.

 

The IMF did its part in planning a large rescue package should Greek debt be haircut to 30% of its issued value. The IMF bailout fund will be dollar financed by the Federal Reserve and China. When push comes to shove the IMF bailout funds will benefit to a degree from Chinese dollars as an outsider lender that the IMF, which has already laid the ground, work for.

 

What will have to be rescued is the banking a system of Euroland and elsewhere holding the debt of Greece. However, what makes you think that other European nations will not demand some degree of equal treatment as the US credit rating agencies continue to downgrade European sovereign debt and the debt of their banking system.

 

Clearly the International Swaps and Derivatives association will see no default in the Greek credit event because it is voluntary. To declare this as such is the final can kick because it will be met by a demand for equal treatment and that will require infinite QE to hold up the world banking system. This begins a march towards 2015 when gold has a cyclical chance of being full-valued for the time being. A march has begun towards the virtual reserve currency that will have a connection to gold. This march will be toward an equilibrium price of gold and will not repeat the 1980 fall in price.

 

It is the funds necessary to cover the euro debt haircuts for the banks holding this debt internationally plus the ISAD Credit Event and Determination Committee non-declaration of default that guarantees QE to infinity.

 

The US dollar may have until June of 2012 before it replaces the euro as the currency of deep concern. Gold can continue for a period of time being played by the hedge funds but its next test is not at $1500 but rather at $2111.

 

The ISDA is the vehicle that will necessitate QE to infinity by its non-declaration of what is clearly default.

 

The clock is ticking and Alf’s numbers are in the crosshairs of the gold price. Let us hope that things do not get that bad and gold does its natural task and tries to balance the international balance sheet of the USA. That would speak very poorly for the quality of life the Banksters have planned for our grandchildren.

 

Gold is going to and maybe beyond Alf’s numbers. Gold shares with real growing extractable ounces will perform as they did in 1979 and 1980.

 

“Non carborundum est.” Don’t let the bashers get you down. They are so wrong at exactly the wrong time.

 

Respectfully,

Jim

 

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The deal that set this in place happened in December when the Fed was confirmed as the lender of last resort to the entire Western financial world when it granted in excess of $500 billion in US dollar swaps to the European Central Bank.

I told you guys years ago that the Fed would have to monetize even the last Icelandic hot mudhole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh Dear,

 

JS, the King-of-Horsefeathers once again shows he has not done his homework on Greece, and its importance in the swaps market.

 

Why do you guys fall for this spin?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Why do you guys fall for this spin?

 

To protect the fruits of our labours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You don't think the Greek fallout would have been a little more dramatic had they not provided (essentially: printed) gazilions? And you know what you have to do when they print gazillions every other day - thanks to Sinclair.

 

Oh Dear,

 

JS, the King-of-Horsefeathers once again shows he has not done his homework on Greece, and its importance in the swaps market.

 

Why do you guys fall for this spin?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Lonely Road We Take Together

 

My Dear Extended Family,

 

The replacement of lost liquidity is NOT arithmetic. Booms, like busts, turn geometric on their liquidity effect because of the impact of mass financial psychology. Management of Perspective Economics primarily operated by mainstream media can make the gestation period of this event long, but it cannot reverse the underlying process.

 

With there being no question whatsoever that a credit event is on the near horizon for Greece, there is no avoidance of a further haircut in the valuation of Greek debt held by international banks, primarily Euroland institutions. What you take away with one hand you must provide with another if the banking system of Euroland is to remain viable. As you haircut (reduce in value for balance sheet considerations) Greek debt you reduce the value of that debt held as assets of financial institutions, therein reducing their viability to borrow in order to conduct their banking activities. This mark down is in full gear as speculation advertises to the world that the next step in this Greek tragedy is a haircut of value to just 30%.

 

How is it possible for the Euro wizards of words to punish Greek debt severely but not hammer others equally now under assault both by mainstream media as well as the undertakers of bond ratings in the USA?

 

The argument takes a position that the International Swaps and Derivative Association, which is made up of the manufacturers of these devices, will not self immolate by declaring credit events to be credit defaults. This is the ultimate irreversible can kick directly into the dead end sign at the end of the road of postponement to perdition.

 

Financial currency inflated hell by global debt monetization is the condition from which there is no escape, except though burning down the old system and making a new one. This is the dead end sign at the end of the road for can kicking. It is the condition of financial perdition. It is not something coming in a distant future. It is here and now, clear and present, if you have the eyes to see.

 

The means to this end is the combination of sick sovereign debt, risk insurance issued against the default of debt without sufficient liquid capital to do so, and the fact that those entities who issued this insurance are themselves and in truth illiquid under strain thanks to the capitulation of FASB on true market value of their legacy and other assets. This is the construction of the house of financial cards that will not survive intact during the period of 2012 to 2015. This is what gold at $1700 is indicating to those unfortunate enough to understand the practical workings of a system whose life force has been stolen to a degree that can only be deemed epic.

 

Never in written history has anything this size occurred where trillions has been bled away from an economic system with impunity. In all history when this has occurred the then monetary system imploded, to be replaced always by a commodity based money. That is what the Retenmark was in the Weimar experience. This is what the virtual reserve currency will be that replaces the US dollar in the next three years. The commodity currency definition will be derived by a connection to the gold held by the central banks of all the currencies that make up the Western world averaged virtual currency. This virtual currency will be a computer based settlement mechanism that cannot be traded in by other than central banks on behalf of trade settlement. Each contributing nation will also contribute to a universal M3 that will be the percentage measure of gold’s value to determined percentage-wise appreciation of depreciation, constituting value of the position held by each central bank in gold. Few if any central banks need to make transactions to adjust value as the squids of the world will invent derivatives upon which to speculate on the value of gold as a product of the growth or contraction of the western world M3.

 

This is not by any means a gold convertible system. This is not by any means a perfect system. There will be automaticity in this system but an agreement only by members to perform as above. However this system will work the same as the Retenmark worked. When the need becomes so great to believe in something solid anything that sounds solid has and will again work.

 

Only a resurgence of business based on solid foundations of equity and not debt can do the final clean up and provide a door to a better future.

 

No politician anywhere can do the necessary without causing the explosion of the results being heard almost as a new big bang. We are going to inflate this debt away or those in power will be swept away by the violence inherent in the suffering citizen.

 

Gold and only those things gold will provide the bridge to maintaining a lifestyle, maintain some freedom of choice and most importantly give you options you would not otherwise have. This has been as it always has been and will continue so. The drama of the market is nothing but that – sound and fury presaging but not defining change.

 

Do not allow anything to deter you from holding that which will build your bridge to tomorrow safely.

 

I am personally 100% in. It is my intention to hold as much gold as possible lending to me leverage without borrowing or margin. What was done in the 70s cannot be done now because we are only on the cusp of the volatility in the price of gold and it is already impossible to carry leverage except in the manner I have devised for myself participated in by others. I invite you to join with me.

 

This is a lonely road we are on where its direction does not tend to make friends. The road to freedom of any kind never does.

 

Stay focused. “Non Carborumdum Est,” do not let the hateful, vengeful bashers get you down.

 

Respectfully,

Jim

 

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/02/13/the-lonely-road-we-take-together/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh Dear,

 

JS, the King-of-Horsefeathers once again shows he has not done his homework on Greece, and its importance in the swaps market.

 

Why do you guys fall for this spin?

 

This 'riskless/everything nets to zero/aren't we so damn clever' line is plainly banker claptrap. Everything is fine until one of the counterparties runs out of liquidity and starts having collateral plundered by the other vultures (AIG, Goldman). So then the whole clusterfuck can only be saved by unlimited money creation by the central bank to maintain nominal performance of these derivative contracts.

 

Sinclair has always had this bang on and he will continue to be right in this regard. Derivatives = QE to infinity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh Dear,

 

JS, the King-of-Horsefeathers once again shows he has not done his homework on Greece, and its importance in the swaps market.

 

Why do you guys fall for this spin?

 

Please expand on this Bubb I'm not getting it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many people know that Jim Sinclair sold right at the top in 1980, few realise he actually created it;...

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_price_models_sinclair.html

Jim Sinclair's Model: The Federal External Debt Equilibrium Gold Price

...

People who read Sinclair's blog and listen to the interviews he gives know that he himself helped create this price top by selling his entire gold position after the price had reached $850 per ounce in the London PM Gold Fixing (and after it had reached an intraday high of $887.50) on that day. The next morning, after Sinclair had sold out, the London AM Fixing priced gold at $763 an ounce. A price of over $800 would not be seen again until November 11, 2007.

 

How could Sinclair call this top, a price level gold would not see for another 28 years, with such precision and confidence? ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh Dear,

 

JS, the King-of-Horsefeathers once again shows he has not done his homework on Greece, and its importance in the swaps market.

 

Why do you guys fall for this spin?

 

 

Please expand on this Bubb I'm not getting it.

 

Was there any more discussion of this that I missed?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My Dear Friends,

 

Iran is to be dropped out of the Swift system in Belgium. That means Iran could neither send or receive bank money wires.

 

That would slam Iran’s economy.

 

This is economic war at the highest level of conflict. This could start a greater move of central banks with fears of the West to increase and retrieve their gold positions. It certainly puts cash reserves held by central banks (which are computer entries anyway) into serious question as to security.

 

This is as serious as it gets in nuclear and economic terms. The only weapon that can be effective against Iran’s nuclear industry is Western nuclear deep penetration bunker busters.

 

Hold tight to your insurance investment positions.

 

Regards,

Jim

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My Dear Friends,

 

The Angel at $1764 is very real, not only as a price magnet, but in implications of surpassing it for a second time.

 

Expect a war at Angel $1764. Expect it to be surpassed in time.

 

The gold bears are bonkers. The ones that know it has much higher price objectives are the craziest.

 

Why trade your anchor against the wind in the storm of centuries?

 

Respectfully,

Jim

 

www.jsmineset.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...Let me share with you the conclusion I took away from today’s luncheon.

 

1. What is going to happen is going to take place in March somewhere between the 14th and 20th in all probability.

2. What will determine the fate of markets is what action China does or does not take in providing funds to IMF bailout funds.

3. I believe China can and will extract significant trade and other benefits for their presence.

4. I believe China will want the same immunity that the IMF just took for themselves on sovereign debt in liquidation.

5. Greek gold will be held hostage to their debt.

6. That will accelerate the modest trend of repatriation of gold for the cellar of the New York Fed to nations like Germany that are certainly able to store their own wealth.

7. There will be an acceleration in the trend of utilization of other currencies than the dollar for contracting internationally regarding goods, service, oil and minerals.

8. I do not agree that we are at the doorstep now of major changes in the international monetary system. That comes in June of 2015.

9. I am certain that we are on the immediate threshold of the monster kick of the financial can down the road that is a dead end.

10. I believe China and the US Fed will assist in that great last can kick that backfires.

11. I am certain that I am in the right business and that business is the identification and accumulation of gold as gold is the ultimate survivor of what is about to happen.

12. I am certain the gold industry is mad as a Danbury hatter in selling their product the moment they produce it.

13. I am certain the gold and silver industry is in a transition back to the dividend producers they once were.

14. I am certain that the volatility in gold, silver and equities we have already seen is nothing compared to what is about to happen.

15. The last man standing among asset categories as the new monetary system is introduced sometime post June of 2015 will be gold and gold alone.

 

Therefore the soundest investment now is what I, and others (McEwen) are doing in building companies whose inventories of goods to be sold are mineable ounces of gold and other precious metals in the ground moving towards production.

 

The immense shorts in this industry group are whacked out noobies without a clue.

 

New mines need never pollute. Old mines can never be cleaned up. Open pit and surface enrichment is the type of gold that will be least effected by rising costs.

 

Respectfully,

Jim

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder what the significance of this date is? Does anyone know?

 

8. I do not agree that we are at the doorstep now of major changes in the international monetary system. That comes in June of 2015.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Two Economic Clutch Type Events Of This Period

 

My Dear Extended Family,

 

The history of this period will focus attention on two economic clutch type events. These events will have mandated the need for the construction of a new monetary system utilizing a virtual reserve currency traded only by central banks. This reserve currency will be related to gold via a global Western world M3.

 

An economic clutch type event is one that by its occurrence allows the world to shift gears and change into a new economic velocity and direction.

 

The first economic clutch event took place when the decision was made that the US Federal Reserve and US Treasury would not support a rescue of the prestigious investment firm of Lehman Brothers. By doing this, they threw that institution and all of its transactions in which it was the deficit other party into default via bankruptcy.

 

Before then the entire OTC derivative debacle had a simple but extremely controversial solution. The tactic would have been similar to the means of nullifying the effect of the historic failure of the Savings and Loan Institutions during the last great housing recession. This at hand solution was to net the entire global derivative problem into a singular institutions named the Derivative Bank. At that time all OTC derivatives which were established would be returned to the instance of establishment when obligations netted almost zero. It was the institution of Lehman as a bankruptcy that removed the ability to net out to near zero from the daisy chain of global derivatives. To bring the daisy chain of OTC derivatives to net the winner would have to place their paper winnings into the pool and the paper losers would have placed their paper losses back into the pool. This would have reduced the entire loss to only part of the earnings on the banking institution from 1991 (the birth of the derivative use globally) rather than the more than now 20 trillion dollars worth of liquidity required to fund the winners who have benefited mightily from that windfall we financed.

 

The forced flushing of Lehman Brothers is therefore the economic clutch event that brought quantitative easing to provide the rescue funds to finance the winnings of the global Western world financial system. The downshift was from 5th gear to 1st gear that nearly blew up the world economic engine.

 

We now have had the 2nd Western world economic clutch event that will shift the gears directly from the plodding along in 1st gear economically into reverse gear, therein blowing the transmission and engine simultaneously. This event is the ISDA blessing of the credit event which reduced the value of Greek debt to its holders by 70% without triggering a default. They have now made it virtuous to walk away from the once lest risk loans, loans to Western governments. Such a walk away is now deemed a credit event, not the dirty D word, default.

 

A pattern of action has been set in place now which takes QE, the gift from Lehman’s economic clutch event, to QE to infinity, the direct result of the Greek economic clutch event that was declared via the International Swaps and Derivative Association. These Gods of Mammon declared 70% of the Greek sovereign debt to be valueless without guilt, sin or consequences.

 

Replacing the lost value from the sovereign credit event (non-default) in this paper selectively to the banking system makes unlimited creation of liquidity an act of virtue and blessedness.

 

To assume that other nations facing the same problems will not wish the same treatment is madness. To assume the private sector facing the same problems will not demand the same treatment is madness. Therefore QE to infinity is now deemed an act of virtue and blessedness.

 

A 70% haircut in the value of the Greek sovereign debt does not constitute a credit event defined as a credit default according to the most powerful financial entity on the planet, the ISDA. This group is more financially influential than governments today. This decision by the revered members of the Association’s Determinations Committee has acted to prevent the notional value of all the credit default swaps, an OTC derivative, from becoming real value as would occur if the CDSs were called upon to function.

 

The ISDA has, according to MSM, taken offense to being described as secretive in its proceedings. The ISDA said minutes of the meeting of the committee would not be publicly distributed as the decision was unanimous.

 

What has occurred in what is now described as “the successful handling of the Greek problem” by the ECB is in fact a total disaster for mankind in its introduction of QE to Infinity as the blessed settlement to a problem that now is more severe than it was prior to the Lehman event. That problem is that the mountain of OTC derivative has not been attended to, but rather has grown to include the size of all Western world sovereign debt as it is all western sovereign debt that is now threatened by an event of default on a national level. That will simply occur regardless of whatever the ISDA says. Much of it will not be paid, period.

 

This enfranchised QE to infinity sets a floor via Chinese gold acquisitions to any reaction in price. Alf Field’s price objective of gold at $4500 is by this 2nd economic clutch event now in the crosshairs of the gold price.

 

Gold prices staying high have now been guaranteed. Further to that, those intelligently managed gold producers internationally will shift to dividend payers of note, transforming the gold industry into the utility type equity of the future. Opinions expressed to the opposite are simple exercises in economic ignorance.

 

Gold’s price reactions, when they do occur, will be violent and very short lived. This is fact.

 

Respectfully,

James Sinclair

 

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/03/02/the-two-economic-clutch-type-events-of-this-period/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please expand on this Bubb I'm not getting it.

I avoid this thread mostly - It makes me gnash my teeth.

 

About why I think he has exaggerated the risk of Greek Derivatives:

Press reports say that there are only about Eur.3 Billion of derivatives backing Greek Debt. This isn't a scary number to me. If JS has a different figure, he should acknowledge the 3bn in most press commentary, and show how he has come up with a different amount.

 

Since he hasnt done that, I think his intention is mere scare-mongering.

 

(Wow, I wish someone still in the derivatives business would come in here and wipe the floor with Mr Sinclair, as I used to hear them do at Chase about the outrageous claims from GATA etc. By comparison to what I heard, I have been extremely polite about Mr.Gold.

 

For instance, GATA used to look at reported short Gold futures positions of the big banks, and then just forget that they were in the business of hedging gold price risk for their Gold miner clients. And that "natural" position of buying future gold position from Gold miners simply required them to be short somewhere else to balance those longs. Of course they were big shorts on futures. GATA would never mention that. GATA would also never mention that banks have strict limits on the size of their proprietary risks they can take in any market. So their net shorts (or net longs) were a tiny, tiny proportion of their overall reported futures position.)

 

At times, Reading the commentary of JS is like reading the ravings of an unschooled teenager... sometimes. I am sorry to tell you, but that is the truth that any genuine expert of derivatives would tell you. Too many people heere seem to respect someone who often just flames out nonsense. It makes me rather ill to see it.

 

JS example:

"more than now 20 trillion dollars worth of liquidity required to fund the winners who have benefited mightily from that windfall we financed..."

WTF is he talking about? Did he pull that figure out of the air?

There is no justification whatsoever to think that banks have "winnings" of 20 trillion dollars on derivative contracts. He is very, very confused, or is intentionally misleading people. These sort of big numbers come from Gross, Face Amounts of derivative exposures that I have explained many times on this website. The Net Risk is a tiny portion of the headline figures, and Sinclair knows that or should know it.

 

Call a spade a spade, and just acknowledge here that he is a "King-of-Horsefeathers". (I am being far more polite than I should be.)

 

There are some real risks in the Greek situation and in Europe. Several of us are writing about them on other threads. But throwing around meaningless large numbers contributes nothing but confusion to the conversation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I avoid this thread mostly - It makes me gnash my teeth.

 

It makes me rather ill to see it.

 

 

Seeing that you had posted on this thread, for a moment I thought you had become a CIGA, and joined the brotherhood as a fellow cult member. Your going to be spectacularly sick when he is correct, 100% gauranteed! I'll get the popcorn...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×