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Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

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Question for those who follow Jim Sinclair's work more closely that I. In his recent KWN interviews JS has said specifically that GOLD will be the last man standing along and I think he said the same for gold shares.

 

But.... no mention of silver ?

 

Is JS indifferent or anti silver - anyone know ?

 

 

If Gold is the last man standing then I do not see how Gold shares will also be standing. If all the paper money is toast. Then every mine in the world I believe would have been taken over by the Governments of the countries that they are in.

when all paper money is worthless then only hard assets will have any bargaining power.

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Question for those who follow Jim Sinclair's work more closely that I. In his recent KWN interviews JS has said specifically that GOLD will be the last man standing along and I think he said the same for gold shares.

 

But.... no mention of silver ?

 

Is JS indifferent or anti silver - anyone know ?

 

 

Just to add i do not have a clue on what Sinclair thinks about silver. Im not really a follower of him. I have never heard him say anything about silver that i can remember of

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My Dear Friends,

 

QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes. The recovery in the US economy is not going to reach any take off speed, but rather return for a second recessionary experience post June of 2012.

 

QE 3 will surpass 1 and 2.

 

Gold will trade next between $1700 and $2111 before moving higher. The Gold Cartel will abandon their shorts over the next three years, having met their match in the marketplace .

 

Regards,

Jim

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/

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Gold will trade next between $1700 and $2111 before moving higher. The Gold Cartel will abandon their shorts over the next three years, having met their match in the marketplace .

= "Don't worry. Be Happy."

Actually, I think there is a good case that sentiment is signalling a bottom here.

 

Take A CLOSER look at this pattern of sentiment:

 

83009281.png

 

That Top + 1,2,3 pattern looks very powerful indeed.

 

And we are now at/near the 3rd of 3 dips in sentiment.

 

What I like is that it now shows that both 2006 and 2008 had the same pattern of sentiment.

And 2004/5 and 2010 too. In other words, a top, followed by a low every two years.

If it is the low, it is not too many miles from the $1650, he has deemed is important

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Question for those who follow Jim Sinclair's work more closely that I. In his recent KWN interviews JS has said specifically that GOLD will be the last man standing along and I think he said the same for gold shares.

 

But.... no mention of silver ?

 

Is JS indifferent or anti silver - anyone know ?

 

JS rarely talks about silver. His words are more or less indifferent towards it. A few weeks ago he referred to silver as "a game," adding "what a game it is." Meaning, it may be possible to make significant gains with silver. But he clearly believes that gold is the serious, conservative, long-term wealth protection asset.

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Maybe not:

The govt will just grab most of your profits

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Maybe not:

The govt will just grab most of your profits

 

Take coins to a different country in your pocket and sell them for cash on a backstreet?

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Take coins to a different country in your pocket and sell them for cash on a backstreet?

That's fine, if you can do it.

Travel may not be so easy when you really need your gold

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JS is still talking about imminent QE / maybe. or maybe a plunge towards deflation

But I share his sentiments on homebuilders...

===========

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

 

QE will go to infinity because there is no other alternative in a balance sheet depression in financial entities.

 

2008 plus more, here we come. One small difference is that QE floats all boats.

 

Homebuilder Outlook Plunges, Reversing Spring Rebound

 

Published: Monday, 16 Apr 2012 | 10:00 AM ET

By: Diana Olick

 

In a stark reversal during the heart of the spring housing market, confidence among the nation’s homebuilders dropped in April to levels not seen since January.

 

An association index measuring sentiment fell three points, changing course after seven straight months of gains.

 

It now stands at twenty-five; fifty is the line between positive and negative sentiment.

 

“What we’re seeing is essentially a pause in what had been a fairly rapid build-up in builder confidence that started last September,” said National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist David Crowe in a release.

 

“This is partly because interest expressed by buyers in the past few months has yet to translate into expected sales activity, but is also reflective of the ongoing challenges that are slowing the housing recovery—particularly tight credit conditions for builders and buyers, competition from foreclosures and problems with obtaining accurate appraisals,” the release goes on to say.

 

The three components of the index each posted a decline, both current sales and sales expectations down three points and buyer traffic down four points from March.

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QE will go to infinity because there is no other alternative in a balance sheet depression in financial entities.

Certainly, European banks face a big challenge.

 

As the WSJ says:

 

European Banks brace for painful ratings cuts

 

"For example, Deutsche Bank said in a recent annual report that a one-notch downgrade of its credit rating would expose the bank to a EUR 45 billion "funding gap."

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Gold back down, testing $1600 - no angel stepped forward to hold support near $1650

 

Has anyone kept up with Mr Sinclair's thinking on this price move?

(I wonder of his illuminati friends have turned forced sellers as their alternative sources of cash are closed down.)

Once again, he is quoting JL on the value of sitting tight in bull markets:

""Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"

 

=== === sidebar === ===

This chart of Gold

66242881.png

 

....suggests the break is (so far) very minor, if existing at all

In essence, Gold has now retraced back to where the acceleration into the parabolic move began.

=== === ======= === ===

 

Of course, the sitting-tight-maneuver by the Gold cult, allowed the traders who can spot parabolic moves, a nice easy exit around $1900. I wonder if Livermore would have been one of those exiting at $1900/$1923 if he had been alive today?

 

My own trading of options and Bull Spreads has allowed me to re-enter the market with limited risk and at low cost, and still have plenty of cash on the sidelines. Personally, I think if JL were alive today, that's how he would be playing it, not sitting on his hands.

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(I know some won't like it, but this does belong in the historical record here)

 

It is an explanation of THIS:

farsidesuperman.jpg

 

I moved it out of the quoted area, to make it clear it wasn't part of your post.

 

I think some here will be amused by it, as I was. And it does seem that JS is taking some heat,

based on his recent postings. As I indicated, that may actually be supportive of a possible bottom,

when people start losing faith in B&H.

 

As I have been saying for sometime, the smart thing to do is to sell into parabolic moves.

If you want to keep some exposure, then switch into Gold calls then, and hope the price drops enough

(as it has done) to replace your Gold at much lower prices.

 

59101600.png.Jesse-livermore-stock-quote.jpg : see quote*

 

Livermore was a smart operator, and I reckon he would have used them in a world where options are so cheap,

not held through huge moves such as we have seen.

 

I still think that JS has an agenda to to turn Gold investors into B&H sheeple, so his Illuminati

friends can unload at/near the top with less competition. His background and Everything he does

shouts that, and you need to develop some discernment to see it. The banks are not quite the manipulators

of Gold, that he makes them out to be- I know that as a former true insider at Chase.

 

I think some (but not all) of the "strange" ideas that I have posted on GEI will prove to have some

truth behind them, and people will wake up and realise that my intuition is not as flawed as some

old poster here thought.

 

In the meantime, let's all try and retain a sense of humor. I may or may not be right about JS.

You can laugh at me, if JS eventually gets his troops out of Gold near the final high. We saw a

nice intermediate high at $1923, and he has so far missed a $399 drop or a $344 drop - that's 20.7%

and 17.9%, respectively.

 

I have been a reasonably heavy buyer of GLD and UGL calls, and also bought some Gold

near $1600, so I will be laughing at the B&H-ers (once again), if prices soar from here.

If they drop back, I still have most of my cash intact. The real interesting time for me will

come around options expiries, which are various months from June to Jan.2013.

=== ===

 

*Quote:

“You will derive from successful trades based on your own judgment a singular pleasure and satisfaction. You will discover that profits made in this way are immensely more gratifying than any which could possibly come from the tips or guidance of someone else.”- Jesse Livermore

 

Does this sound like the words of someone who would be a B&H follower of Mr Gold?

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FM: You have done so many different things; talk about your background.

 

JS: I was a general partner at two New York Stock exchange firms. I have owned my own brokerage firm, clearing [members], arbitrage firm, minor metals dealer in London, and I began my sale of those when I called the top in 1980. I felt that the markets had to be approached in a different way and the things that I had done in the 1960s through 1980 weren’t applicable. I was rumored to be the largest gold trader in the world back in the ‘68 to 1980 period and that was a great compliment. Not necessarily true, but I was a significant trader and bear in mind I was a kid and I had no eraser on my pencil and didn’t believe I could be wrong. As you mature you find out you can be. Carrying the type of commitment I carried in those days right now would put me in the hospital if not the emergency ward because of the volatility of the markets. The ownership of the gold companies was simply a different way of approaching the gold market. I am a CEO and president of a public company that is involved in businesses in Tanzania, East Africa.

 

To be fair to JS, Tanzanian Royalty/TNX.t has performed well in recent months ... update

 

tnxxu.png

 

Those who bought below $3, will see him as a real Superman today.

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Sinclair posted this amusing letter on his website;

 

"A Civilized Rebuttal to Charlie Munger

By Christopher Barker

 

 

Dear Mr. Munger,

 

You and I have been down this road before, sir.

 

Nearly two years ago, I asked you to consider retracting your surprising characterization of folks like me -- those who choose to allocate a portion of their capital to gold -- as "jerks."

 

You see, I hail from a corner of the financial universe where investors from all walks of life converge to discuss ideas and investment strategies in an environment of mutual respect and decorum. It is my firm belief that once the discussion of a controversial topic deteriorates into efforts to cast aspersions upon the character of those with an opposing view, we abruptly exit the realm of civilized debate and sacrifice any opportunity to learn from each other in constructive ways.

 

That is why I was deeply disappointed to see that you chose to debase the tenor of the public debate on gold last week by stating your belief that "civilized people don't buy gold." Your full comment was rather bizarre, so I am compelled to repeat it in full: "I think gold is a great thing to sew onto your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939, but civilized people don't buy gold, they invest in productive businesses."

 

With all due respect, sir -- and I do still believe you are due much respect following a long career of well-documented accomplishments as an investor -- that statement is utterly indefensible. You are of course entitled to your opinions about gold, but I implore you to cease casting spurious judgments upon those individuals who may hold an opposing perspective. Just as before, I will kindly accept your apology for the particular phrasing employed; though this time around I'll know better than to hold my breath.

 

The word "civilized" carries with it an enormous weight of semantic baggage from centuries of unfortunate applications. That is a topic for another day. But I think it's important to note that many of the individuals opting to seek some financial shelter in gold are not the billionaires like yourself who are already set for life. In an environment where bonds and cash yield imperceptible nominal returns, and certainly for as long as government deficit-spending continues to launch into the stratosphere, gold offers a uniquely powerful alternative asset in which to park one's hard-earned capital.

 

Warren Buffett's own father, Rep. Howard Buffett, recognized the monetary role of gold in empowering the masses to protect themselves from the effects of uncontrolled spending in Washington. Back when you were a young lad, in an essay titled Human Freedom Rests on Gold Redeemable Money, Buffett explained: "Far away from Congress is the real forgotten man, the taxpayer who foots the bill. He is in a different spot from the tax-eater or the business that makes millions from spending schemes. He cannot afford to spend his time trying to oppose Federal expenditures. He has to earn his own living and carry the burden of taxes as well." At the close of the piece, Buffett concluded: "There is no more important challenge facing us than this issue -- the restoration of your freedom to secure gold in exchange for the fruits of your labors."

 

I wonder, Mr. Munger, was Warren Buffett's father uncivilized?

 

Investing in productive businesses

Even as I take exception to your repeated assaults against the character of those who have seen fit to acquire some exposure to gold, I take pleasure in locating patches of common ground between us. I remain a big fan of your 2010 parable -- your cautionary tale in which a nation's addiction to casino gambling (derivatives) leaves foreigners, "particularly foreigners with savings to invest," deliberately avoiding that nation's currency and bonds.

 

At the time, I hailed your piece as "a timely attempt to instruct a nation in the basic foundations of fiscal solvency and the potential perils of our current trajectory." I consider it my duty to inform you, however, that any scenario involving a substantial decline in foreign demand for U.S. currency and bonds will necessarily invoke a major move into gold that would have wildly bullish implications for the metal's price. So if one were to grow wary of saving capital in U.S. dollars, but risks being labeled as uncivilized for looking instead to gold, I wonder...where would you have them go?

 

In your recent comment, you seem to offer equities as the superior choice. I certainly agree that investing in "productive businesses" is an essential component of a sound investment strategy, but surely you can see that gold and equities need not be mutually exclusive options for investors.

 

A reasonable allocation to gold or silver bullion has already proven an astonishingly effective means of safeguarding hard-earned capital during this ongoing period of structural distress in major fiat currencies. When I perceived the threat of a systemic financial crisis back in 2005, I began accumulating shares of the gold and silver bullion proxy Central Fund of Canada (AMEX: CEF ) . That was one of the soundest investment decisions I've made! As the following chart will show, the bullion proxy has appreciated 280% over the past seven years.

 

01e3844b9b677317a3ff2252816abfe1.png

 

CEF data by YCharts

 

Of course, I continued to invest in productive businesses simultaneously. They just happened to be dominated by resource-related companies that fit within my bullish outlook for hard assets. I established early positions in runaway success stories Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) and Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO ) , and held my positions confidently through the massive correction in 2008.

 

Of course, not all of my mining stocks have performed as well, and indeed we are presently in the midst of a very substantial correction in the sector. I know you're a consummate value investor, so I wonder whether you have pondered the deep value built into a quality gold stock like Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) at current levels. Accordingly, I have maintained bullish CAPScalls on each of the above-named stocks for several years running.

 

I assure you, Mr. Munger, I am not a "jerk." And if I don't fit your definition of "civilized," then I'm quite sure I don't want to. But if you must stick solely to productive businesses while insulting those who hold gold bullion, then I recommend a bit of exposure to the quality miners. They may be volatile, and the industry has shown it is certainly not exempt from risk, but as the above chart illustrates, these miners on the whole are handily outperforming your own Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B ) over the past several years."

 

 

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Sinclair posted this amusing letter on his website;

"...civilized people don't buy gold, they invest in productive businesses." - Charlie Munger

LOL

 

I would put it in another way:

In a truly free and civilized society, where bankers have not taken over the politicians,

people do not have to own gold, they can invest in productive businesses.

 

But the US is not the kind of country anymore, and Charlie Munger's company has now stepped up to the trough,

and is gorging itself there with the most corrupted of the bankers.

 

Gold has a role in sidestepping the (growing) corruption within the monetary system, and Munger devalues himself

and his reputation everytime he makes comments which fail to acknowledge the present reality.

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Jim Sinclair:

Entire Western World May Announce Massive QE This Weekend!

(i give this 85% chance -says poster):

 

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1930307/pg1

EXCERPT:

The legendary Jim Sinclair has just released an an email alert to subscribers stating that QE3 will be an unexpected announcement over a weekend, and that it could come this weekend!

With today’s collapse in Spanish and Italian bonds and the Euro-zone again on the verge of contagion, Sinclair states not just the Federal Reserve, but ALL OF THE WESTERN WORLD COULD ANNOUNCE MASSIVE QE ON SUNDAY!

 

From Jim Sinclair:

When will QE become the public practice of all Western world central banks?

It will more than likely come over a weekend just like this weekend. Major sovereign bonds like the Spanish and Italian will be over 7% yield and rising. The Euro will be under pressure. Equity indices everywhere will be under pressure. Recent economic statistics in the entire Western world will be quite negative. The impact of the drought will have driven food prices through the roof.

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Jim Sinclair: Entire Western World May Announce Massive QE This Weekend!

(i give this 85% chance -says poster):

 

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1930307/pg1

EXCERPT:

The legendary Jim Sinclair has just released an an email alert to subscribers stating that QE3 will be an unexpected announcement over a weekend, and that it could come this weekend!

With today’s collapse in Spanish and Italian bonds and the Euro-zone again on the verge of contagion, Sinclair states not just the Federal Reserve, but ALL OF THE WESTERN WORLD COULD ANNOUNCE MASSIVE QE ON SUNDAY!

 

From Jim Sinclair:

When will QE become the public practice of all Western world central banks?

It will more than likely come over a weekend just like this weekend. Major sovereign bonds like the Spanish and Italian will be over 7% yield and rising. The Euro will be under pressure. Equity indices everywhere will be under pressure. Recent economic statistics in the entire Western world will be quite negative. The impact of the drought will have driven food prices through the roof.

Perhaps QE3 next weekend?

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Since Jim is pushing the whole DRS thing hard at the moment, I thought I would see what can be done from the UK. Best I can find so far is to go down the Paper Certificates route - TD do a Certificated Account for instance (limited to UK markets), or you can go direct to Computershare UK if they are the Transfer Agent (limited selection). Anyone else looked into this? Especially interested to know if anything is possible inside an ISA.

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JS MIneset on Gold Cycles

 

With respect to intermediate-term cycle analysis, prices have moved lower following the formation of the second half cycle high (HCH) of the cycle from May.

 

clip_image003_thumb4.gif

 

The next intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) will likely develop sometime during the next three weeks. If the forthcoming ITCL forms well above the previous low in May and it is followed by a strong move above congestion resistance in the 1,795 area, a breakout to new all-time highs would become highly likely in late 2012 or early 2013. Therefore, although the short-term outlook is currently bearish, the secular uptrend may be preparing to resume, so it will be important to monitor price behavior closely during the next several weeks for the next signals with respect to long-term direction.

 

CIGA Erik McCurdy

Senior Market Technician

 

/more: http://www.jsmineset.com/

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