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Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

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I'm not too sure what this means exactly... Anyone?

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

What you have not done, you may well not be able to do after December 31st 2008. Act immediately.

 

Respectfully,

Jim

 

Date: 12-17-2008

Dear Valued Client,

On December 1, 2008, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a rule change that will eliminate the ability of Depository Trust Company (DTC) participants - including **COMPANY NAME** - to request physical certificates for securities positions participating in the Direct Registration System (DRS). This change will take effect on January 1, 2009.

 

Currently your account is set up to automatically generate a physical certificate each time a trade is settled. This functionality will be disabled on December 31, 2008. All security purchases in your account that settle after the December 31, 2008, will be held in your **COMPANY NAME** account, and a physical certificate will not be automatically generated. Details about the new regulations are listed below.

 

What you need to know:

 

-The DTC, the institution in which **COMPANY NAME** holds shares in electronic form, proposed the rule change in an effort to reduce the industry’s dependency on physical certificates and reduce the cost and risks associated with processing physical certificates.

 

-DRS is a way to electronically transfer shares into book entry form. Shares held in book entry form represent shares held on the books of the company rather than in physical certificate form or in street name with a brokerage firm. This change will only affect securities that are eligible to be transferred via DRS.

 

-Starting on January 1, 2009, **COMPANY NAME** will be unable to obtain physical stock certificates for securities that are participating in DRS.

 

-There are a small number of companies that are DRS-eligible but do not allow their shares to be transferred via the DRS system. These companies are considered DRS-eligible but not participating. The initial change effective January 1, 2009, will exclude these securities. However, effective July 1, 2009, **COMPANY NAME** will be unable to obtain physical

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Also this...

 

EDIT: Plus this - US troop surge in Afghanistan - http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20081220/twl-us...an-41f21e0.html

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

 

When you read articles like this keep in mind who is the most powerful man on the planet. The answer is the captain of a nuclear launch submarine. He has the power to incinerate nations.

 

Now think about how India has two Akula type 2 nuclear missile launching (28 per ship) submarines, and Pakistan has mobile nuclear launch vehicles with very long legged missiles.

 

I would say that is as serious as it gets.

 

After having a home in India and having lived there for a total of three years in short stays I can assure when it hits the fan the police with the guns and uniforms and the lights turned off are the most dangerous people there in any situation.

 

India may still strike at Pakistan: US report

19 Dec 2008, 2207 hrs IST, TNN

 

NEW DELHI: India may have ruled out the military option against Pakistan in the aftermath of Mumbai terror attacks but the international intelligence community continues to believe that strikes in PoK and elsewhere could still happen.

 

Global intelligence service Stratfor, in its latest report, said, "Indian military operations against targets in Pakistan have in fact been prepared and await the signal to go forward."

 

It added, "These most likely would take the form of unilateral precision strikes inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir, along with special forces action on the ground in Pakistan proper."

 

The private sector intelligence service said that unlike the massive movements of 2002 during Operation Parakram, India’s preparations this time were more under the radar and not visible to the world at large. Its only indication was the fact that the Border Security Force (BSF) has been put on high alert on the western sector as well as the eastern sector — this paramilitary force’s main mandate would be to prevent infiltration.

 

"Sources have indicated to Stratfor that New Delhi is going through the diplomatic motions in order to give Pakistan the opportunity to take care of the militant problem itself — but the Indians know that Islamabad has neither the will nor the capability to address their concerns," Stratfor said.

 

More…

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Signs Of The Evil Pretenders – How To Recognize Manipulation

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

Manipulation of price, a criminal, regulatory (if the regulator cares to regulate) and commercial crime of fraud subject to civil litigation and criminal law is today the major means of what funds consider trading. It is not trading but rather criminal activity with both criminal and civil law remedies. It takes the form today primarily of pool short selling or naked short selling as a civil and criminal conspiracy to defraud.

 

Manipulation is both on the short as well as long side. It does not matter if the direction is welcome to you, both up and down is the practice of market sociopaths. Now it is most prominent as a pounding pool short selling conspiracy, making offerings not to trade but to scare buyers and late hour or after hour computer trades where you trade with two different names - a camouflaged trading scheme with yourself.

 

Let’s look at a few common sense rules:

 

1. No one throws money away on purpose. No one sells large blocks of shares at deep discounts off the price of closing on one exchange or another. Usually a computerized trading platform is the single manipulator, trading with himself via the conspiracy of another called “Pool Short Selling" or "Parking.”

 

This can occur when a situation is running hard towards the old high with a big illegal short interest attempting to save itself.

 

It can also occur when a major interest is a buyer who sells in a most disorderly manner to shake out some weak longs that have followed in the footpath of the buyer buying now in front of the major interest.

 

This is called “Shaking the Tree.”

 

2. Generally in the commodity world, certainly in gold and silver, the ‘Bombastic Bastards” enter the market. These traders enter the market generally with the same intentions as number one, committing the same crimes as number one that are subject to civil, regulatory (if there are any or any willing to enforce them) and criminal remedies.

 

Equity traders they are somewhat more sophisticated in the sense that these dastardly cowards hide behind the bushes operating from the shadows for what they think is security in their misbehaviour.

 

First the Bombastic Bastards take their position, such as selling into a rising market that is stretched out. Now enters the BBs hitting all the small bids. As the buyers begin to fade, they offer huge amounts knowing there are no buyers.

 

As a result the price wilt or vaults to their advantage. The civil, regulatory and criminal event here is to move a price without taking real risk, as there is never any intention of selling the large amount offered. It is proved by same similar patterns over time.

 

3. The final is dirty tricks. You remember the hatchet job that was done on Royal Gold. You also remember how low it got and how high it went after that. I have always believed that RGLD has an $80 target on it. I believed that then and now.

 

Let me tell you about another dirty trick.

 

Say we exaggerated beyond belief the cost of mining for a company trying to color an entire area the same.

 

Cash costs of mining today is plus or minus the profit or expense of the short of gold derivative taken for that exact project.

 

International GAAP now demands that the short of product derivative taken must be identified when taken to the project for which it is taken. Then the profit or loss of the short of product derivative must be credited or debited to the appropriate project DIRECTLY.

 

To falsely define a social or political event as it applies to a company is another manipulative supporting strategy. When a company has a problem with the locals in a country known for its friendly and welcoming behaviors, you can be sure that company did something really bad and deserves it. The key here is EXAGGERATE.

 

This is common to anti global, anti corporate, pro-socialism organizations and follows the same exact script from one exaggeration to the next exaggeration.

 

I know, as I was Chairman of Sutton Resources and Kahama Mining when such an alleged event occurred. You can review that by reading the publication, “The Men Who Moil for Gold” found on the net at the site of the University of Toronto publications.

 

What the paid NGA (Non Governmental Agency) anti globalism organizations do is multiply the number of people and damages, all with a splash of violence for color. Next the manipulator using the NGA gets a paid friend to get the nonexistent or grossly exaggerated story on a wire service or into some publication to benefit the manipulator’s position.

 

This is known as “Dirty Tricks.”

 

Know that the long side manipulator is as much a criminal as is the short side manipulator. To say otherwise is to prostitute my principles.

 

Naughty, naughty... Very naughty.

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Signs Of The Evil Pretenders – How To Recognize Manipulation

 

 

 

Naughty, naughty... Very naughty.

Or better, how to spot:

1. Large holders of gold needing to sell to cover their losses with an expectation of gold falling further

2.Someone who's made a bad call screaming its someone else's fault.

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Jim says to write down the third week of June 2012

 

 

http://jsmineset.com/

January 14th 2011 to June 21st, 2012:

 

The best part of this gift is not the one you already know, which is January 14th 2011, but rather the date that a new currency form will replace the form of the US dollar as you know it today which is the third week of June 2012.

 

Don’t laugh! Write this down and do not forget about it!

 

Happy (sort of) New Year,

Jim

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Jim says to write down the third week of June 2012

 

 

http://jsmineset.com/

January 14th 2011 to June 21st, 2012:

 

The best part of this gift is not the one you already know, which is January 14th 2011, but rather the date that a new currency form will replace the form of the US dollar as you know it today which is the third week of June 2012.

 

Don’t laugh! Write this down and do not forget about it!

 

Happy (sort of) New Year,

Jim

It won't matter because the world will end on the 21st December 2012.....

Jeeez how can any of you take this guy seriously?

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2 funnies on JSmineset tonight, Here's the first;

 

Forrest Gump Explains Mortgage Backed Securities

 

Mortgage Backed Securities are like boxes of chocolates.

 

- Criminals on Wall Street stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds.

 

- Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poor rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates.

 

- These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors.

 

- Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime.

 

- Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide.

 

- Hank Paulson now wants the American taxpayers to buy up and hold all these boxes of turd-infested chocolates for $700 billion dollars until the market for turds returns to normal.

 

- Mama always said: "Sniff the chocolates first Forrest".

 

 

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The second;

 

"When COMETS Unite"

 

I have a small story for you. I used to keep fish in my office as a hobby. In the Asian tradition, having an Arawanas is very good luck. This type of fish looks like a WW2 landing craft. It has a snake like body and an landing craft mouth.

 

You feed Arawanas little fish. The entire procedure is rather gross, but hey, for good luck the gross might be worth it.

 

One day I brought home the usual little plastic bag full of wiggling Arawanas food.

 

These little wiggling guys actually organized and attacked the Arawanas all at once. Together they ate off his fins. Now I had a fin-less Arawanas floating helplessly upside down.

 

It did not take long for the Arawanas to perish for his sins against the little wiggling guys.

 

The name of the food that an Arawanas eats is "COMETS." I am not joking.

 

I was so impressed by these courageous COMETS that I let them live long and prosper in the dead arawanas’s 150 gallon tank. They had earned their good life. They eat harmless dead dried flies.

 

The moral of this TRUE story is that when COMETs unite they can kill anything of any size, no matter how dreadful looking it is.

 

For an Arawanas to be good luck, they cannot be exposed to united Comets. Comets are better luck than any Arawanas. This is certainly true for my COMETS!

 

The ugly Arawanas is a COMEX paper gold manipulative short seller. We are the COMETS!

 

 

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JS on the 5 Governors asking for a trillion:

 

No, there is no bottomless pit of money!

 

There is a bottomless pit of worthless PAPER. This is the thesis of Mugabe/Zimbabwe economics, and will have the same results as applied by Mugabee/Zimbabwe.

 

The reality is that yes, the Zimbabwe paper pit is quite possible in the US dollar scenario. It is not only possible but getting closer to probable with each event as discussed below. Wake Up!

 

Break the "illusion" and see the "real" situation. It is just that SIMPLE.

 

People believe the Illusion to be real and the real to be an illusion until they WAKE UP!

 

I have only one agenda here.

 

WAKE UP!

 

Jim

Most of the time I am actually moving within the illusion Sinclair writes about, e.g. I measure things in Sterling or USD and use it for payment. But every now and then I have these truly clear moments where I suddenly grasp the full scale of this Ponzi scheme, including fiat currencies, government bonds and social security/pensions. This is when I know that I am right on track, and when I know that I need much more physical metal than I have right now.

 

It will be amazing.

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Here is one good story!

 

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/01/05/jims-mailbox-55/

Jim,

 

I wanted to pass this story on to you, Dan and Monty.

 

I grew up on a ranch. The largest structure on our ranch was a very large and beautiful classic designed barn.

 

One night when I was very young the barn caught on fire.

 

My Dad and his hired men risked running into the barn to rescue the horses. Naturally the horses were panicked and terrified. After getting the horses outside to safety the horses turned around and ran back into the barn. Despite their best efforts they could not stop the horses from running back into the barn and they all perished in the fire.

 

Why would the horses do such a foolish thing?

 

My Father told me that the barn was where they felt safe and secure. He explained to me that in their blind panic they ignored the obvious danger and they ran back into the only place they had been conditioned to feel safe in.

 

Sound familiar?

 

CIGA Dean

 

For our slightly thicker readers: barn = US Dollar (incl. treasuries). :)

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Here's a post from Jim Sinclair today;

 

Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,

 

Here is the other "WHY" gold was sold down today.

 

The truth will set you free of the manipulators.

 

$25,000,000,000 of index commodity funds follow the index readjustments made herein.

 

Gold is REDUCED from 10.8 to 7.9 percent of the index which therein causes related selling by INDEX FUNDS.

 

Buying or selling by index funds is a yearly, onetime event. These adjustments are needless artificial buying and/or selling of specific commodities that skew market prices and produce opportunities both to buy and sell short.

 

You think reweighting is a product of a hands off process in today's rotten to the core world? You probably also believe in Santa Clause.

 

Beware, commodity index rebalancing ahead

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 05 15:34.

 

The major commodity indices rebalance their respective asset weightings once a year (or occasionally more) - and with that comes a mass dose of buying and selling. The 2009 rebalancing is expected to start sometime this week.

 

Luckily, JP Morgan has produced its best guess of how the 2009 reweightings of the DJ AIGCI and the S&P GSCI indices will impact the market.

 

The weightings for both indices are released ahead of time, but begin to kick in the first few working days of the new year. In the case of the DJ-AIGCI - which JP Morgan estimates has $25bn in funds tracking it - the new weightings come into force during the roll period that begins January 9th. The S&P GSCI index weightings kick-in after its January roll which commences January 8th. JP Morgan estimates about $50 bn of investment into that index.

 

As the DJ weighting multipliers account for changes in US dollar-denominated values there is generally more potential for large changes there than in the GSCI, whose weightings are set in terms of ounces/tonnes (on the basis of liquidity and are weighted by their respective world production quantities).

 

Accordingly, JP Morgan see the most significant change coming in the DJ-AIGCI rebalance. Here the market weight of crude oil is expected to increase from 9.6 per cent to 13.8 per cent, gold from 10.8 per cent to 7.9 per cent, copper (COMEX) from 4.5 per cent to 7.3 per cent, live cattle from 6.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent and sugar from 4.7 per cent to 3.0 per cent. Meanwhile, S&P GSCI crude oil weight will go from 32 per cent to 33.8 per cent. Their analysis:

 

In financial terms, we expect the rebalancing to have the greatest impact in gold, COMEX copper, crude oil, gold, and live cattle. We estimate that the rebalancing of the two indices is expected to result in $877 million of selling in gold, $699 million of buying in COMEX copper, $528 million of selling in live cattle, and $523 million of buying in crude oil.

 

more

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Here's a post from Jim Sinclair today;

 

Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,

 

Here is the other "WHY" gold was sold down today.

 

The truth will set you free of the manipulators.

 

$25,000,000,000 of index commodity funds follow the index readjustments made herein.

 

Gold is REDUCED from 10.8 to 7.9 percent of the index which therein causes related selling by INDEX FUNDS.

 

Buying or selling by index funds is a yearly, onetime event. These adjustments are needless artificial buying and/or selling of specific commodities that skew market prices and produce opportunities both to buy and sell short.

 

You think reweighting is a product of a hands off process in today's rotten to the core world? You probably also believe in Santa Clause.

 

I don't know how reasonable Jim's argument is, but I do note it also makes sense with what happened to oil today - up in the index and up in price.

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Here's something else incredible I picked up from Jim's site;

 

EPA 'Cow Tax' Could Charge $175 per Dairy Cow to Curb Greenhouse Gases

 

Farm Bureau warns just this one rule may increase milk production costs up to 8 cents a gallon.

 

Call this one of the newest and innovative ways your government has come up with to battle greenhouse gas emissions.

 

Indirectly it could be considered a cheeseburger tax, but one of the suggestions offered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in its Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) for regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act is to levy a tax on livestock.

 

The ANPR, released early this year, would give the EPA the authority to regulate greenhouse gas for not only greenhouse gas from manmade sources like transportation and industry, but also “stationary” sources which would include livestock.

 

The New York Farm Bureau assigned a price tag to the cost of greenhouse gas regulation by the EPA in a release last month.

“The tax for dairy cows could be $175 per cow, and $87.50 per head of beef cattle. The tax on hogs would upwards of $20 per hog,” the release said. “Any operation with more than 25 dairy cows, 50 beef cattle or 200 hogs would have to obtain permits.”

Kate Galbraith, correspondent for The New York Times, noted on the Times’ “Green Inc.” blog that such a “proposal is far from being enacted” and that the “hysteria may be premature.”

But Rick Krause, senior director of congressional relations for the American Farm Bureau, warned it’s certainly feasible – especially based on the rhetoric of President-elect Barack Obama and the use of the EPA to combat global warming. Such action by an Obama administration would take an act of Congress for livestock to be exempt.

 

more

 

 

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Strange how the Comex inventory figures have changed very little with 1.37 million ounces taken delivery of in the Dec contract yet Jim & co have been urging all to take it away from Comex - which I suspect has happened. Will be looking forward to see what his Jim's records reveal on the auditors.

 

 

Jan 8th

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

 

Deliveries out of Comex warehouse - the plot thickens.

 

It has been reported to that the Comex is trying to argue people out of taking delivery of gold from the warehouse.

 

Tomorrow I am going to check my records to see who is the auditor for the warehouse.

 

You know on 9/11 all that gold was smashed in the cellar vaults when the Twin Towers came down.

 

I assume there was no damage to even one bar, nor was even one bar pocketed in the process of backhoe removal of debris.

 

Wasn’t all the floors of the collapsed Twin Towers about 6 inches thick when it was all over?

 

Maybe the Comex warehouse holds one very large and ugly bar of gold accounting for 75% of the ounces.

 

"In today’s world anything is possible." Quote from Bernie Madoff.

 

I love the following writer:

 

“We have made at least 15 calls and they are now asking WHY I want delivery.

They say it will cost a lot of money to sell it back to them. Ha!

Because I am from MTS they think I fell off a turnip truck.

–CIGA Hslm P."

---------------------------------

 

 

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“We have made at least 15 calls and they are now asking WHY I want delivery.

They say it will cost a lot of money to sell it back to them. Ha!

Because I am from MTS they think I fell off a turnip truck.

–CIGA Hslm P."

---------------------------------

you know $600 an oz makes sense.

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Can I ask a question please.

what you all going to do if comex doesn't default, bonds spend all of next year at 0% rates and gold does the decent thing and gets back to a realistic price?

 

Of course :D

 

Funny you should ask that. I've just been looking at what the realistic price of gold is at the moment.

 

Looking at my chart from last year, which interestingly is still pretty relevant:

 

Gold_versus_Real_Fed_Funds_Rate_-1.gif

 

Trying to be the most conservative I can, lets say the 'normal' price of gold back in 1980 was US$300/oz. Notice that's a LONG way below the peak. It's actually about the same as the 1999 low.

Now the money supply has increased by about 7.7x from 1980 to Apr 2008.

 

So the realistic gold price (meaning lowest) is now about 7.7 x 300 = US$2310.

 

To answer your question, I will be sitting happy and holding........no matter what happens this year, because I know that sometime there will be a day of reckoning.

 

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Gold_versus_Real_Fed_Funds_Rate_-1.gif

That graph will make a lot more sense if you replace 'real fed funds rate' with 'fed funds rate - (MoM CPI change*12)'

 

If thats a little volatile use a 2/3 month (MoM CPI change*12) average and shift it back a month.

 

also, that graph stops in 07/08 (6 months ago!)

real fed funds rate now is about 22%

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I was going to post the whole of that one as I thought it was good (just didn't have time to find this thread !):

 

Hi Jim,

 

Maybe this has been answered on your website and I either missed it or didn’t understand it.

 

What needs to change in order to drive the dollar lower? We seem to have all of the ingredients in place for a weaker dollar yet that doesn’t seem to matter. When will it matter? When do the buyers of the dollar become sellers?

 

Again thanks for all you do. By the way I am 63 and also believe in your "burnout" before "rust-out" theory.

 

Regards,

CIGA Ron

 

Dear Ron,

 

I had lunch this afternoon in Joberg with a group of very well known personalities in African Mining. Rob S, a member of this assemblage, told a story that I believe prophetically answers your question.

 

The monetary parable was about a special variety of monitor lizard in Australia that lives off road kill (Hedge Funds, I imagine). The species, like the Komodo Dragon, kills by infecting its victim with a vicious saliva.

 

Fortunately for our Australian friends this lizard becomes terrified quite easily and runs for the nearest high point, usually a bush or tree, when confronted with terror like a human being or a bad dream.

 

The knee jerk reaction to fears of an imploding world economy, the fear that Obama produced calling for Tarp funds now indicated that crisis is here, up the tree goes the down-under lizard. The Tree is the dollar and long bonds. This awful, stinking, road kill eating, vile lizard is what is left of the hedge fund business after Madoff.

 

Your question is when does it end.

 

The answer is that Fiscal Stimulation will produce a degree of economic results that draws out a measure of inflation from Monetary Stimulation relative to the intensity of the new Administration’s degree of concern. Acting as president and calling for legislative action NOW to release TARP funds before you are the president is a demonstration not only of concern but total panic.

 

As inflation starts to work its way out of absolute monetary madness, .72 on the USDX comes directly into the market’s cross hairs. Three back to back closes below .72 and the dollar show is over. The dollar will plummet after the realization that the Fed will never be able to issue bonds on the crap they have been stuffed with and kills the idea of the Rentendollar coming out of the Fed’s inventory of SIVs backing massive future bond issues. The game is then over and the beginning of the concept of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, Modernized and Revitalized becomes the tool of choice starts.

 

Gold is going to $1650 on its way to Alf’s numbers.

 

Today you have been had by paper gold ONE MORE TIME.

 

Regards,

Jim

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How can Sinclair be so sure about the Euro? I think he is wrong. The Euro looks like a turd IMO.

 

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/01/13/...-news-today-90/

Regardless of any interim technical dollar strength, it is doomed my friends, doomed. That will not and cannot change. A break up of the euro is a very long shot and would not reverse the terminal nature of the US dollar.

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How can Sinclair be so sure about the Euro? I think he is wrong. The Euro looks like a turd IMO.

 

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/01/13/...-news-today-90/

probably because the prospect of the gulf states switching to the Euro for their oil trades hasn't gone away, just a little delayed by all the unfortunate shipping 'accidents' that keeps cutting off their internet.

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Here a technical comment by Sinclair:

 

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/01/13/jims-mailbox-60/

image00220090113-035118-thumb.jpg

 

Dear Alex,

 

You ask about the high 2012 potential, not 2010.

 

The answer is this chart maximizes along the upper trend line at Alf’s mark of:

 

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE).

 

Jim

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