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Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

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http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/02/24/...-trader-dan-72/

The rally in gold, while it has come a long way, is not, and I repeat this, is not the result of hot money chasing gains. It is rather the result of investors seeking a shelter from the coming financial tsunami. How do I know that? Easy – just look at the low open interest readings. It is 60% of what is was the last time gold rallied over $1,000. What you are seeing today in gold is the exit of that portion of the gold market comprised of the short-term oriented trading crowd. That crowd does not give a rat’s arse what the fundamentals are; they are purely technical traders whose long term horizon is a 60 minute bar chart. Once upward momentum stalls out, they sell. Opportunistic short sellers, of which there are plenty at the Comex, understand this phenomenon quite well and use it to their advantage. I would look for gold to stabilize soon and then move sideways for a brief period before resuming its uptrend. The conditions that have led to the sustained gold buying are not going anywhere and as it drops into support regions on the price chart, buyers will emerge and begin increasing their long side exposure.

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I'm an avid reader of Jim Sinclair's site but I can't help but think what is his agenda for running a free website? Is he doing it for good karma or are there other motives...?

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I'm an avid reader of Jim Sinclair's site but I can't help but think what is his agenda for running a free website? Is he doing it for good karma or are there other motives...?

cat

pidgeons

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End of March, his original target was end of 2008, but then put the target back 3 months.

 

There's a very good chance they will be below $900 by then,

If so, quite a big miss, dontchathink ?

 

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I'm an avid reader of Jim Sinclair's site but I can't help but think what is his agenda for running a free website? Is he doing it for good karma or are there other motives...?

There's loads of postive karma to be gained from running a good website, isnt there?

 

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A parabolic move.

That wont be bullish, if they suddenly decide it is safe to go back into the stock market,

and they sell their gold to buy stocks.

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There's a very good chance they will be below $900 by then,

If so, quite a big miss, dontchathink ?

Yes that would be quite a long way off, sure he would have a reason though :lol:

 

How low do you think this pullback is going to go, $850?

 

BTW I am 35% cash in my ISA now, haven't sold any bullion.

 

 

 

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There's loads of postive karma to be gained from running a good website, isnt there?

 

Absolutely, and I think your site is fantastic.

 

I think it can sometimes be useful to question the motives of others and in the case of Jim Sinclair in all probability his motivation is to share a lifetime of knowledge in the gold market with the general public, to benefit others. There could of course be other motives though. I like to keep an open mind.

 

In the about section on his website it says;

 

"The Spin really does stop here" - Why does he feel the need to emphasise this with "really"?

 

Also...

 

"From 1981 to 1984, Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volker."

 

So, he previously worked in an advisory role regarding the liquidation of silver for an actor within the silver market.

 

Now, could it be that he is now performing the same function for another actor within the gold market, and if this were the case, would it not be useful for him to draw as many retail and institutional investors into the market as possible?

 

Does anyone see where I am heading with this?

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That is exactly the question I asked myself yesterday night. Something is wrong here.

 

There should be no gold in COMEX warehouses anymore. But there is. So, what is going on?

 

It's possible that it is a sideshow. No-one is forced to buy gold from COMEX? I suspect COMEX could be being used for Misdirection. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misdirection

 

While we keep watching COMEX the real gold trades are happening elsewhere.

 

If you see the gold in COMEX depleting then the game is most likely up, as by this time it could well be the only place left which has gold for sale.

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Sinclair? I think he is genuine enough.

But his bias is so strongly and consistently bullish, I think it is of limited value

to traders, whi may think it makes sense to trade the big swings

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Just for info. Posted by "MAGNUM P.M.'s twin bro" on GIM

 

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=25897

Saw Sinclair today…I will not comment on TRE, that is for others, but the tone is positive or perhaps I am an easy mark…

 

The big headline? He was asked how he came up with the figure of $1650 originally. He brushed of a technical explanation and suggested that was the mathematical result if gold was used to balance the balance sheet of the USA. Today, if that same calculation was made, it works out to $17,000…yes $17,000 He said he would never put that figure in print because he would get a ton of crap for it, but it is why he started endorsing Alf Field’s calculations which went up to $10,000.

 

...

 

[On inflation/deflation:]

 

From:

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I will take some time and think about this.

 

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/03/01/...news-today-126/

Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a donkey from a farmer for $100.

The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day.

The next day the farmer drove up and said, ‘Sorry Chuck, but I have some bad news, the donkey died.’

Chuck replied, ‘Well, then just give me my money back.’

The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’

Chuck said, ‘OK, then, just bring me the dead donkey.’

The farmer asked, ‘What ya gonna do with a dead donkey?

Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’

The farmer said ‘You can’t raffle off a dead donkey!’

Chuck said, ‘Sure I can. Watch me. I just won’t tell anybody he’s dead.’

A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, ‘What happened with that dead donkey?’

Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars apiece and made a profit of $898.00.’

The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’

Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.’

Chuck now works for Morgan Stanley in their OTC Default Derivative Department.

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Hmm

 

not sure about ALL

 

but maybe im wrong

 

Forewarned is forearmed

 

Be careful of internet gold offerings regardless of appearances. They are ALL frauds.

 

All that glitters is not gold

STANLEY SENEVIRATNE Kurunegala north group corr.

 

A five member gang operating islandwide were taken into custody by Habarana police while attempting to sell a stock of fake gold nuggets early yesterday.

 

The modus operandi of the gang had been to sell the fake gold nuggets to a wealthy merchant claiming they had discovered the treasure.

 

Inquiries revealed that the suspects had been carrying on this racket over a long period and had employed over 180 others as their agents and sub agents in many parts of the country.

 

Police said the brain behind the racket was among the suspects already in custody.

 

Information also revealed that the suspects had cheated several leading businessmen in Kurunegala, Dambulla, Pelmadulla, Ratnapura, Kanthale, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Hingurakgoda, Mahiyangana and Colombo.

 

 

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Hmm

 

not sure about ALL

 

but maybe im wrong

I also think that this is slightly unfair to say.

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DOUBLE POST.

 

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/03/03/jims-mailbox-89/

What good is gold in the "mayo" jar going to do for use if it will be a criminal offense (prison time) to hold and sell gold privately?

 

...

My own view is simply – “Why would the feds need our gold?”

 

The US Dollar is no longer on a gold standard of any type and therefore the Feds do not need any gold to ramp up dollar printing. Once upon a time, that was the case; it no longer is. They can create unlimited amounts of dollars with their electronic printing press – Bernanke as much as said this exact thing not too many years ago.

 

I am of the opinion that the Feds will at some point bring gold back into the monetary system in order to save the dollar but that will be done by a revitalized gold certificate ratio clause as Jim has mentioned many times on the site. In order for that to be effective, they will be forced to upwardly revalue their current gold price which is officially valued at the ridiculous price of $42 /ounce. The price will rise high enough to balance out the Federal Government’s outstanding obligations which at the rate they are increasing, means a substantially higher gold price. When that occurs, the price of gold will no longer be free floating in the sense that it is today but it will be more or less a type of floating peg for lack of a better phrase. That means it will oscillate around a set price by maybe $100 or so either way or a bit more depending on its level at the time.

 

When that does happen, it will be time to sell your gold if you are so inclined.

 

Gold goes through both bear markets and bull markets but when this bull market is over, the price of gold will not collapse like it did back when the last great bull ended in 1980.

 

Best,

Trader Dan

 

PS if you are still worried, then I would suggest you buy silver instead

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sigh.

BUT

you can only give dollars to people who will take them off you.

I am reaching the conclusion that gold is used to settle forex - especially with countries whose population use gold as their primary savings route.

But Forex is a double edged sword, if this is the case it is not a new phenomenum.

It won't even be gold specific, any metal/meat will do.

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... It won't even be gold specific, any metal/meat will do.

:rolleyes:

 

Below the vault of the Bundesbank. It seems to be full of a metal. Wait, help me mSparks, it is aluminium, isn't it? :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

0,1020,548844,00.jpg

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not sure why prechter doesnt seem to like gold and silver

 

 

Gold Bears Raving Again

Posted: Mar 03 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: March 3, 2009 at 11:04 pm

 

Filed under: General Editorial

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

Mr. Prechter is back out with his bearish counting. Gartman is also on the bandwagon but looking for a buy slightly under $900, at least now.

 

Therefore it is time to review another Elliot Wave count, our own Alf Fields who has been spot on since gold started this bull market. The following is his retirement contribution to the gold gang.

 

Elliott Wave Gold Update XXIII

Alf Field

 

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

Once again, you can pick your number for the gain in FIVE and multiply it by $2,500. The numbers become astronomical and can really only be possible in a runaway inflationary environment, something which many thinking people are suggesting has become a possibility as a result of the actions taken during the current crisis.

 

Concentrating on the $3,500 target for Major THREE, which is a five fold increase from the low point of about $700, there is a case advanced in "Crisis Cogitations" for a five fold increase in money and prices in order to arrive at a "Less Hard" economic landing. In the USA, total debt recently exceeded $50 trillion and this is unsustainable given an economy with a GDP of only $14 trillion. The suggestion is that the debt level will reduce through bankruptcies to say $35 trillion while the new money created to save the situation will push up the nominal GDP to $70 trillion. A $35 trillion debt level is manageable with a GDP of $70 trillion.

 

It requires a five fold increase in prices to achieve the above result. Gold has retained its purchasing power over the centuries and will no doubt continue to do so in the current environment. Consequently gold will almost certainly increase five fold (or more) if the level of prices in the USA increases five fold.

 

In "Crisis Cogitations" it is acknowledged that the current credit/debt deflation could get out of hand and result in a serious deflationary depression. There is debate as to how gold will react in a deflationary environment, but the fact is that in a serious depression bankruptcies will be rife and price levels will decline. This may result in cash and Government bonds performing better than gold, but this is not certain. Gold cannot go bankrupt and is thus an asset that people can hold with confidence in a deflationary depression. It is possible that demand for a "safe haven" investment may be large enough to cause the metal to perform better than cash or Government Bonds.

 

The odds, however, strongly favour an inflationary outcome. Given a strong will and the ability to create any amount of new money via the electronic money machine, it seems a foregone conclusion that runaway inflation will be the end result. If Mugabe could do it in Zimbabwe, there seems little doubt that Ben Bernanke and his associates in other countries will have no trouble in doing it too.

 

Why quit writing these reports?

 

I have noticed from the emails that I receive that many people are using these reports to guide their trading activities in gold. I have had no objection to this in the past, but feel that it would be foolish to trade gold in the circumstances of the Big Kahuna crisis that we are living though at the moment. It has become a question of individual financial survival in an environment where things are happening more rapidly and with increasing violence. I feel very strongly that it is time to quietly hold onto one’s gold insurance and not attempt to trade it. I do not wish to provide interim levels that may cause people to be encouraged to trade their gold to skim a few extra fiat dollars or other currencies, but lose their gold as a result.

 

So it is Good Bye, Good Luck and God Bless,

 

 

Alf Field

25 November 2008

 

 

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DOUBLE POST

 

http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/03/04/...onetary-stress/

Gold’s Role During Periods Of Monetary Stress

Posted: Mar 04 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: March 4, 2009 at 5:18 pm

 

Filed under: General Editorial

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

 

Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

 

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

 

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

 

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

 

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

 

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

 

* Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

* Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

* Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

* Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

* Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

 

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

 

I did not wish to yell "fire in the theatre."

 

It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.

 

Jim

 

------------------------------

 

Jim

 

See the following two links as support:

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FDHBFIN.txt

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves

In the past, I believe you have said that the price of gold could reach a level whereby in dollar terms this equation will hold:

 

Oz’s of Gold Held by US x $ Price of Gold = External Debt

 

From the above links we find:

 

Federal Debt held by Foreign Investors = $3,125,000,000,000 (as of 12/31/08)

 

Official US Gold holdings = 8,133.5 tonnes (or 260,272,000 oz’s)

 

Putting the #’s into the equation:

 

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold

 

My question is - what is the mechanism or thought process that makes the equation true?

 

(I guess that I am looking for the why?)

 

Thank you for your time.

CIGA Rich Gold

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In The News Today

Posted: Mar 20 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: March 20, 2009 at 1:01 pm

Filed under: In The News

 

Sodom and Gomorrah

 

Is described in the old testament as a place where no honest person could be found. Forget Sodom and Gomorrah, this is the final act of deceit that the media will present as a solution to the banning problem.

 

Establishing "false fabricating" as an accounting foundation is simply wrong. This act proves beyond any doubt that there is no practical solution to the planetary meltdown of the fraudulent instruments of OTC derivatives.

 

Financial inhumanity does not deserve to be bailed out of this disaster.

 

Some change the new faces brought to the filth of the financial community.

 

"Facts (bankruptcy of spirit and finance) do not cease to exist because they are ignored."

–Aldous Huxley

 

Shame on the FASB! They have failed to perform their purpose!

 

Accounting Brothel Opens Doors for Banker Fiesta: Jonathan Weil

Commentary by Jonathan Weil

 

March 19 (Bloomberg) — The banks demanded that the accountants give them leeway in how they report losses to investors. The accountants responded by giving away their souls.

 

This week, the Financial Accounting Standards Board unveiled what may be the dumbest, most bankrupt proposal in its 36-year history. If it stands, the FASB ought to change its name to the Fraudulent Accounting Standards Board. It’s that bad.

 

Here’s what the board is floating. Starting this quarter, U.S. companies would be allowed to report net-income figures that ignore severe, long-term price declines in securities they own. Not just debt securities, mind you, but even common stocks and other equities, too.

 

All a company would need to do is say it doesn’t intend to sell them and that it probably won’t have to. In most cases, it wouldn’t matter how much the value was down, or for how long. In effect, a company would have to admit being on its deathbed before the rules would force it to take hits to earnings.

 

So, if these rules had been in place last year, a company that still owned shares of American International Group Inc. or Fannie Mae, for instance, could exclude those stocks’ price declines from net income entirely. It would make no difference that the companies were seized by the government last year, or that both are penny stocks. The loss would get buried away from the income statement, in a balance-sheet line called “accumulated other comprehensive income.”

 

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