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Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

 

Please note the words "Naked Short" and "Fraud" linked together by an unquestionable expert witness.

 

Naked Short Sales Hint Fraud in Bringing Down Lehman (Update1)

By Gary Matsumoto

 

March 19 (Bloomberg) — The biggest bankruptcy in history might have been avoided if Wall Street had been prevented from practicing one of its darkest arts.

 

As Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. struggled to survive last year, as many as 32.8 million shares in the company were sold and not delivered to buyers on time as of Sept. 11, according to data compiled by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Bloomberg. That was a more than 57-fold increase over the prior year’s peak of 567,518 failed trades on July 30.

 

The SEC has linked such so-called fails-to-deliver to naked short selling, a strategy that can be used to manipulate markets. A fail-to-deliver is a trade that doesn’t settle within three days.

 

“We had another word for this in Brooklyn,” said Harvey Pitt, a former SEC chairman. “The word was ‘fraud.’”

 

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JS today:

STAY FOCUSED.

 

This is indicative of what is coming in a crash of Federal Income Revenues that leads to a ballistic rise in the Federal Budget Deficit. This has significant implications for the US dolalr and thence for gold, believe it or not

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http://jsmineset.com/2009/05/19/in-the-news-today-200/

Letter from a Dodge dealer

May 19, 2009

 

letter to the editor

 

My name is George C. Joseph. I am the sole owner of Sunshine Dodge-Isuzu, a family owned and operated business in Melbourne, Florida. My family bought and paid for this automobile franchise 35 years ago in 1974. I am the second generation to manage this business.

 

We currently employ 50+ people and before the economic slowdown we employed over 70 local people. We are active in the community and the local chamber of commerce. We deal with several dozen local vendors on a day to day basis and many more during a month. All depend on our business for part of their livelihood. We are financially strong with great respect in the market place and community. We have strong local presence and stability.

 

I work every day the store is open, nine to ten hours a day. I know most of our customers and all our employees. Sunshine Dodge is my life.

 

On Thursday, May 14, 2009 I was notified that my Dodge franchise, that we purchased, will be taken away from my family on June 9, 2009 without compensation and given to another dealer at no cost to them. My new vehicle inventory consists of 125 vehicles with a financed balance of 3 million dollars. This inventory becomes impossible to sell with no factory incentives beyond June 9, 2009. Without the Dodge franchise we can no longer sell a new Dodge as "new," nor will we be able to do any warranty service work. Additionally, my Dodge parts inventory, (approximately $300,000.) is virtually worthless without the ability to perform warranty service. There is no offer from Chrysler to buy back the vehicles or parts inventory.

 

Our facility was recently totally renovated at Chrysler’s insistence, incurring a multi-million dollar debt in the form of a mortgage at Sun Trust Bank.

 

HOW IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA CAN THIS HAPPEN?

 

THIS IS A PRIVATE BUSINESS NOT A GOVERNMENT ENTITY

 

This is beyond imagination! My business is being stolen from me through NO FAULT OF OUR OWN. We did NOTHING wrong.

 

This atrocity will most likely force my family into bankruptcy. This will also cause our 50+ employees to be unemployed. How will they provide for their families? This is a total economic disaster.

 

HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN IN A FREE MARKET ECONOMY IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA?

 

I beseech your help, and look forward to your reply. Thank you.

 

Sincerely,

 

George C. Joseph

President & Owner

Sunshine Dodge-Isuzu

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Saw the "it is now" thing but was confused by J.S' references to being on the cusp of Alf Fields 5th wave and then showing this (which if I recall correctly has since been updated to much higher levels and different wave counts?)

 

Major ONE up from $256 to approximately $750 (a Fibonacci 3 times the $255 low)

Major TWO down from $750 to $500 (a serious decline of 33%);

Major THREE up from $500 to $2,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $2,500 to $2,000 (another serious decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,000 to $6,000 (also a 3 fold increase, same as ONE)

 

Does this not make sense to anyone else?

 

Last time I looked gold was <$940, how can we be beginning the 5th wave ??

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What does the U.S. Treasury deficit really mean? Apparently this is something that is different from a government deficit.

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Saw the "it is now" thing but was confused by J.S' references to being on the cusp of Alf Fields 5th wave and then showing this (which if I recall correctly has since been updated to much higher levels and different wave counts?)

 

 

 

Does this not make sense to anyone else?

 

Last time I looked gold was <$940, how can we be beginning the 5th wave ??

 

I noticed that too - but he says 'leg' - so maybe that's leg up, leg down, leg up, leg down, leg up?

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Saw the "it is now" thing but was confused by J.S' references to being on the cusp of Alf Fields 5th wave and then showing this (which if I recall correctly has since been updated to much higher levels and different wave counts?)

 

 

 

Does this not make sense to anyone else?

 

Last time I looked gold was <$940, how can we be beginning the 5th wave ??

 

The last time he posted Alf's predictions wave 3 was $700 to $3500 then wave 4 was down to $2,500 then wave 5 was up to $6,000. So not quite sure what's going on there :blink:

 

 

 

 

Edit: Spelling

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I noticed that too - but he says 'leg' - so maybe that's leg up, leg down, leg up, leg down, leg up?

 

 

I thought that initially but then he goes on to say:

 

We are on the cusp of Alf Field’s 5th Wave of his gold price projection
.

 

Clear as mud then?

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Sod knows then. He does get excitable...

 

Me - I'm doubtful right now. I'm a bit of a Silver Sammy though.

Yer, I think hes been on the bottle again. Just when Im begining to get all worried about my possition, Jim comes along with "this is it , this is now". Im sure he will be right eventually.

 

 

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Yer, I think hes been on the bottle again. ...

 

Let's not forget what his newest article is about:

 

Recession%20Hits%20the%20Treasury.jpg

 

What does the U.S. Treasury deficit really mean? Apparently this is something that is different from a government deficit.

 

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I thought that initially but then he goes on to say:

 

.

 

Clear as mud then?

The article says:

We are on the cusp of Alf Field’s 3rd Wave of his gold price projection.

 

The 3rd wave.

 

Maybe it has been changed since you saw it. Maybe it was a typing error.

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Let's not forget what his newest article is about:

 

Recession%20Hits%20the%20Treasury.jpg

 

Wow.

That is very bad news for TBonds and the Dollar

 

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Three Extremely Important Points - http://jsmineset.com/2009/05/21/three-extr...portant-points/

 

Normally I'd read this as being a little 'Sinclairesque' - but after the weird currency lark of today, maybe not.

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

I bring to you the following with the specific permission of Alf Fields.

 

I have suggested to you often in the past that once the price of gold reaches into its maximum potential it will not repeat the fall of the 1980s.

 

I foresee gold re-entering the system in a new and unique form that does not include convertibility. It will not be tied to interest rates as it once was in its previous form.

 

I have written to you various times about the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate ratio, modernized and revitalized, which now may well be associated with an SDR form of an International Central Bank. The tie between the ratio and gold would be a measure of international liquidity considered zero or 100 on the day of adoption.

 

The following is Alf’s statement yesterday, with his permission to post:

 

“Gold cannot decline from its highs as it will be incorporated into the national and international monetary systems at that time.”

–Alf Fields, May 20, 2009

 

Now do you have any questions why Fund Wizard Paulson just got long a few billion dollars worth of Gold ETFs and a few major gold producers?

 

Finally a major event has taken place that is a US dollar milestone.

 

The financing and extremely important event is the arrangement between China and Brazil displaces the dollar as China becomes the major trading partner with Brazil. Since then the Rial has been celebrating and the dollar has been depressed.

 

This is a once in approximately a century replacement of a trading currency that has always meant a dethronement of the deposed and coronation of a new currency king.

 

The last time this happened was when the US dollar supplanted the British Pound as the major trading currency and entity with Brazil 79 years ago.

 

It took the Brits 300 years to supplant the Portuguese Escudo with the British Pound.

 

Only twice has this occurred in 379 years. This is obscure to most but not to Mr. Paulson the hedge wizard. Obscure to most, but not to our gang at JSMineset.

 

The dollar died in Rio and that means everywhere.\

 

The dollar is in for a very cold winter.

 

There is one thing that is absolutely certain and that is Gold is now headed to at least $1650 and in all probability much higher. This is happening NOW!

 

What more do you need to know?

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Three Extremely Important Points - http://jsmineset.com/2009/05/21/three-extr...portant-points/

 

Normally I'd read this as being a little 'Sinclairesque' - but after the weird currency lark of today, maybe not.

Of course not. China is showing a lot of activity recently. Watch out.

 

The people on the other threads who are into head & shoulder tea-leaf reading etc. have no clue. This is about fundamental shifts in the world financial economy.

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Nobody seems to pay attention to what I have been saying for years and what Alf also believes.

 

This time when gold goes up it stays up and does not do its 1980 disappearing act. There will be no need to sell.

 

Looking for the top of the gold price is a major waste of time.

 

Regards,

Jim

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Dear CIGAs,

 

Remember my advice from a few years back? If you have not accomplished financial privacy DO NOT attempt to.

Can someone please translate this for me? Cheers.

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Can someone please translate this for me? Cheers.

US now has an agreement with Swiss authorities to get all the bank account data they need, the only accounts that are still held secret are some of the older type of trusts that can no longer be setup.

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US now has an agreement with Swiss authorities to get all the bank account data they need, the only accounts that are still held secret are some of the older type of trusts that can no longer be setup.

Thanks.

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I dont know why you guys bother with Sinclair. He is always bullish.

I have been bullish and bearish on Gold. And probably got it right more than JS.

I suppose he is followed because he has "a big name" on the web, not because he gets it right

 

Saw the "it is now" thing but was confused by J.S' references to being on the cusp of Alf Fields 5th wave and then showing this (which if I recall correctly has since been updated to much higher levels and different wave counts?

Does this not make sense to anyone else?

Last time I looked gold was <$940, how can we be beginning the 5th wave ??

 

He must be talking about a 5th wave within Wave 3.

 

Watch out, it is possible we need a deeper correction first.

 

goldlt2004.gif

Back to $850, or even $680-700 before wave5-0f-3 maybe

 

From the LT Gold Price thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6918

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I dont know why you guys bother with Sinclair. He is always bullish. ...

Sinclair advises not to trade and rather invest mid to long term (2011/12, his favorite dates). That is why he is only bullish, because it has been his view (consistently) for years that gold is in a major bull market. He has been right on this.

 

He is one of the most consistent commentators out there.

 

He has a gold price model based on fundamentals (US external debt).

 

In his (commonly understandable) "formula", he has (more than 2 years ago) explained why this downturn is the big one, and in what way it is re-enforcing itself.

 

He has repeatedly (and maybe as one of the first) pointed towards the role of (unregulated) OTC derivatives in this meltdown.

 

In fact, he has predicted this meltdown.

 

He has several decades of financial business experience.

 

He has been there before (sort of).

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Thnx for that.

 

I think he has been too quick to dismiss the Bear case.

There were far too many bulls this sping, and that should have been obvious to a long term observer like JS.

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I think both JS/GF and EW/Dr Bubb could be right. ie it is not unthinkable that we do see a major correction. Indeed we are maybe at the beginnings of one now-980 to 920ish. By the charts I think we could go down to 700-720 and gold to still be in its trading range and the bull market intact. After falling down to 720ish then a swift climb through 1000 to 1350-1500 is also on the cards and in range.

 

Saying 'it'll never go down to 720' or it'll never go to 1320' is not what you are both arguing. It seems to be a matter of timing. For JS/GF maybe the view is long term and short term trading of gold is seen as dangerous and risky (which I agree). But to EW/DR.B the charts present great opportunities to trade this move and capitalize.

 

So to me it just seems a difference of temperaments at work. If gold did drop to 720 and 'shake out the bulls' then there would be many ready to take advantage of that (licks chops), but if it didn't and hovered around 850-900 then it would seem not worth the while trying to trade the metal, depending on where you bought it at, of course.

 

My own take is not to trade it but rather to keep adding on the dips, as EW has been wrong about Gold continually (so far) as far as I can see.

 

If you want to read Alf Fields respectable essays and analysis they are available to read on Kitco, all back issued to when he first started, way back. He parted company with his 'respected friend Bob Prechter' when his own analysis proved to him that EW analysis in itself was not enough to deal with the situation we are witnessing. I sincerely recommend his essays. They are well written without any ranting (a la JS) and over the course of time have been proved correct, so far. He has also put his families money where his mouth is, and so far been richly rewarded. He is also a gentleman and has a great mind. Check him out.

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