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Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

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There were far too many bulls this sping, and that should have been obvious to a long term observer like JS.

Wouldn't that be exactly the case with gold at the start of the mania stage? Why should this spring be the same as every other year, when we are in the midst of the largest financial crisis we have ever seen. The bulls have been hedge funds starting to realise what is happening, like Paulson.

 

I am surprised to here such bearish views from someone who recognises patterns.

 

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If you want to read Alf Fields respectable essays and analysis they are available to read on Kitco, all back issued to when he first started, way back. He parted company with his 'respected friend Bob Prechter' when his own analysis proved to him that EW analysis in itself was not enough to deal with the situation we are witnessing. I sincerely recommend his essays. They are well written without any ranting (a la JS) and over the course of time have been proved correct, so far. He has also put his families money where his mouth is, and so far been richly rewarded. He is also a gentleman and has a great mind. Check him out.

 

Thanks for that.

Maybe he deserves a thread here someplace

 

JS would have gained some credibility with me ( and Jim Turk enhanced his own), if they had forecast the current pullback in Gold, as I have tried to do wth my "Gold may be done here" thread.

 

I also forecast a Dead Cat bounce in Uk property, when few could imagine it. Anbd I did that when I remain massively Bearish on US property out to 2011-13. Sometimes it is essential to go against one's own long term views.

I wonder how many long term Gold bulls will get shaken out if Gold falls to $680-700, or even lower?

 

As I start investing (again) in Gold in the weeks to come, I will probably do so in a way, that I will plan NOT to get shaken out if we see such a big move down after I start buying. Not an easy thing - for me, anyway

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I wonder how many long term Gold bulls will get shaken out if Gold falls to $680-700, or even lower?

Been there done that, didn't get shaken out ;) Don't think it will happen again though, but even if it does won't be selling.

 

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Thanks for that.

Maybe he deserves a thread here someplace

 

JS would have gained some credibility with me ( and Jim Turk enhanced his own), if they had forecast the current pullback in Gold, as I have tried to do wth my "Gold may be done here" thread.

 

I also forecast a Dead Cat bounce in Uk property, when few could imagine it. Anbd I did that when I remain massively Bearish on US property out to 2011-13. Sometimes it is essential to go against one's own long term views.

I wonder how many long term Gold bulls will get shaken out if Gold falls to $680-700, or even lower?

 

As I start investing (again) in Gold in the weeks to come, I will probably do so in a way, that I will plan NOT to get shaken out if we see such a big move down after I start buying. Not an easy thing - for me, anyway

I am just about at the point where I will stop buying bullion [after the summer] with further income [now near 100% in bullion]. My central view is that bullion will perform well as a store of value when this function is being increasingly lost in currencies. Another central view I have is that the market may remain undecided [psychology/sentiment being central] about an inflationary as opposed to deflationary outcome for some time to come. This could lead to wild swings in the market and I will use the gold/silver ratio to play this... convert to gold at the peak of the inflation trade then convert back again to silver at the bottom of the deflation trade.

 

My peripheral view is that I could be utterly wrong [to be consistent with my skepticism towards most economic ideas] about a blanket currency depreciation and so will need to hedge, with future income, in other currencies; US dollar, Yen and the NZ dollar which is my native currency. I do not expect to buy bullion with these funds.... but if there is a huge sell-off, I will most probably buy if bullion becomes extremely cheap. That way, even though I may be near 100% in bullion, and lost my hedge, I would have bought at the bottom when further downside is very unlikely.

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I am just about at the point where I will stop buying bullion [after the summer] with further income. My central view is that bullion will perform well as a store of value when this function is being increasingly lost in currencies. Another central view I have is that the market may remain undecided [psychology/sentiment being central] about an inflationary as opposed to deflationary outcome for some time to come. This could lead to wild swings in the market and I will use the gold/silver ratio to play this... convert to gold at the peak of the inflation trade then convert back again to silver at the bottom of the deflation trade.

Think you are on the right track there. Gold and silver are the only currencies that can't be QE'd.

 

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Been there done that, didn't get shaken out ;) Don't think it will happen again though, but even if it does won't be selling.

:) +1

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http://jsmineset.com/2009/07/08/clarificat...-foul-emailers/

121 days speaks directly to the element, "CONFIDENCE," the criteria for value in a reserve currency that is now unravelled where it counts and where MOPE has no impact - in Asia.

I think Sinclair makes a good point here. "MOPE" ("Management of Perspective Economics") coming from entities like the G8 or our beloved financial media is massaging the general Westerner's economic and financial expectations, maybe the only reason why there is no outright panic yet (think of pensions, think of houses). MOPE has less influence in Asia, maybe especially in China, where Western approaches are seen in a more critical light anyway. Sooner or later this will have an impact on bond markets, and then subsequently also on house and equity markets. This will finish the bounce that we see right now.

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http://jsmineset.com/2009/07/08/clarificat...-foul-emailers/

 

I think Sinclair makes a good point here. "MOPE" ("Management of Perspective Economics") coming from entities like the G8 or our beloved financial media is massaging the general Westerner's economic and financial expectations, maybe the only reason why there is no outright panic yet (think of pensions, think of houses). MOPE has less influence in Asia, maybe especially in China, where Western approaches are seen in a more critical light anyway. Sooner or later this will have an impact on bond markets, and then subsequently also on house and equity markets. This will finish the bounce that we see right now.

 

But once again he has to attach a date to the forecast - why does he insist on doing that? I guess one day he may get it right by chance so he can beat his chest and claim his prize...

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But once again he has to attach a date to the forecast - why does he insist on doing that? I guess one day he may get it right by chance so he can beat his chest and claim his prize...

 

Yes, I've gotten pretty cheesed off with 'mystic' Jim. Dan Norchini's alright though.

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Yes, I've gotten pretty cheesed off with 'mystic' Jim. Dan Norchini's alright though.

 

I'm afraid that Jim Sinclair's ego has gotten the better of him (but that doesnt make him a "bad" person)*,

It's just that he has fallen prey to the King Knute syndrome, where he thinks something MUST happen,

because he wishes it so.

 

== ==

*(in the way that Gordon Brown's lust for power and inability to see reality, has made him a creature to

be despised, for the damage that he is doing to the country he is meant to be serving)

(one of my own vices, is that I cannot miss any opportunity to abuse the unelected PM.)

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I'm afraid that Jim Sinclair's ego has gotten the better of him ...

I think Sinclair will be right ultimately, but I don't listen to his deadlines etc.

 

I do expect some major changes before the end 2012.

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No, I don't think he's 'bad' at all - I think he genuinely cares. But, it's all (he's) gotten pretty wacked out and a bit freaky. (Know the feeling!) His ego is a trippin. (Not surprising considering his situation and the weight he's got/put on his shoulders. Trying to help can get you hurt.

 

Hope he gets some peace of mind... Hope he is right too!

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No, I don't think he's 'bad' at all - I think he genuinely cares. But, it's all (he's) gotten pretty wacked out and a bit freaky. (Know the feeling!) His ego is a trippin. (Not surprising considering his situation and the weight he's got/put on his shoulders. Trying to help can get you hurt.

 

Hope he gets some peace of mind... Hope he is right too!

Yeah, I think Sinclair is sincere. Even though you might be certain about an outcome, I think you have to be cautious how you promote it because there are too many uncertainties and variables at play... and even though you might be right in the long run, people might resent the advice you gave them in the short run... simply because they can not see the big picture and the vagaries involved.

 

I am much more cautious about giving advice now after telling my brother-in-law he should buy some gold when I was last on holiday in NZ. I didn't realise he would buy quite so much and so suddenly [i must have given him a real fright]. He bought at the peak when it was priced at NZ$2000. It soon went down to around NZ$1500 due to the kiwi dollar strengthening. :o

 

Of course, further advice to just sit on the gold and hold because the kiwi will soon depreciate and the NZ dollar price of gold will likely blow through $2000 must seem to him like more very suspect advice. <_<.... :lol:

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I think Sinclair is trying to help people recognise the dangers and get into the market (without margin) and stay in and not get too scared by the corrections.

 

I tend to ignore his dated predictions and maybe he should lay off dates too much.

 

But I think he is trying to help people and stop them from thinking "oh, maybe I'll buy in 6 or 9 months" and then miss the boat.

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I always thought he had a counter-party to his bet. Apparently, there are no takers though there was a hedge fund interested in entering a derivative. :o

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Jim Sinclair Interiview - gold is likely to be attached to a SDR basket of currencies

 

In an interview in South Africa on 13th of July 2009, Jim Sinclair thinks that gold will be attached to a basket of Special Drawing Rights currencies currently being worked on by the IMF. No doubt the purpose would be to give the currencies the type of solid backing they now lack. The rate at which gold will be attached is not known. The sound in the interview is mostly out of sync but still worth is listening to.

 

/see: http://goforgold-dog.blogspot.com/2009/07/...ld-will-be.html

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Countdown To Dollar Implosion Madness

 

Jim's countdown gets a thorough bashing from Mish. I have to say when I first saw his countdown I thought it a highly ill-advised move.

 

It never ceases to amaze me what hype people will believe. The latest is a series of posts by Jim Sinclair who on August 14, started a countdown to dollar oblivion.

An 85 day countdown to a break on the US dollar below .76 from .78 hardly seems worthy of a countdown.

 

And it would be nice if Sinclair told us a bit more than "I am informed that Chinese interests want to see both in 2009."

 

Informed by who? A top ranking official? Minnie Mouse? Uncle Joe? At least give us a hint.

 

OK the US and China met in an unplanned meeting. This is grounds for a "November bull’s eye" collapse on the dollar? All the way to a shocking .76?

 

If you are going to hype about dollar implosions, please hype with dignity. Give us our hype's worth.

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I have to say, I don't like the countdown thingy either. It's all technically motivated. Let's stay with fundamentals.

 

EDITed to add:

By the way, can I have a timeframe on that $1650 please? Is that also November?

This is not fair. He has always stuck with his Jan. 2011 deadline.

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Funny, he has a thing about dogs. I dont check out his site daily anymore as its slightly embarassing. Id be interested in anything of great significance he has to say and I guess it will turn up in the main gold thread.

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