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NEOwave Warnings - from Glenn Nealy

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So if you believe everything that Neely said in the Interview back in 2005 then today we should be in a bull market, gold should be rising and the Dow will reach 100,000 in the next 40 years.

 

Now Neely is saying that we are in a Bear market and Gold will drop.

 

So Neowave theory lets us know what will happen in 40 years time but not in 3 years time

 

To be fair, for most of the time since 2005, we have seen that.

And we are not in a depression yet, although such is feared.

I can see a wave 4 pattern developing, and it is much more clear than it was in 2005.

aa1ja6.gif

 

For most of the three years, there has been optimism, good feelings, and healthy prices.

The crash-scenario has only hit in the last few weeks, so give it some time

 

Also, the postings of Neowave for 2008 (see above), certainly look very prophetic now.

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I remain bearish gold, from a chart perspective.

 

As for Neely. I got motivated earlier this year to find out more about his analysis so i took out his trial subscription for a month i think it is. Jury is out as far as i am concerned. It is not elliott wave as i recognise it (or how Elliott himself would recongise it for that matter) so find it difficult to follow his reasoning. But, he has made some good calls. I disagree that the S&P bottom will be around the 2002 lows and think it will be substantially below this. As for gold, i am less bearish than him. I am looking for a bottom around the $600 area, he, if i recall rightly, is looking for a long bear market going further than that.

 

 

The real issue however is both of you are trying to predict the future.

 

Support and resistance lines I can understand the psychological basis for, but there are so many things in play in the deleveraging, how can you really have any certainty about any price target?

 

The real problem gold has is that it doesn't have a dividend, it has little utility, and it doesn't pay a coupon. In short, you can't price it against its potential for future utilisation.

 

The only raison d'etre is as a backdoor stop and the ultimate hedge if things get hyper inflationary and cause a swing in sentiment - but at present, we are just seeing how febrile confidence in gold can actually be, and gold trades on confidence alone.

 

Gold has been rising due to the excessive liquidity in the system, people have started to doubt the value of money given so much was being manufactured. Now this situation is in reverse, how can we know where the bottom is?

 

Don't forget how far silver and gold fell after their last rally 20 odd years ago...

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The real issue however is both of you are trying to predict the future.

 

Support and resistance lines I can understand the psychological basis for, but there are so many things in play in the deleveraging, how can you really have any certainty about any price target?

 

The real problem gold has is that it doesn't have a dividend, it has little utility, and it doesn't pay a coupon. In short, you can't price it against its potential for future utilisation.

 

The only raison d'etre is as a backdoor stop and the ultimate hedge if things get hyper inflationary and cause a swing in sentiment - but at present, we are just seeing how febrile confidence in gold can actually be, and gold trades on confidence alone.

 

Gold has been rising due to the excessive liquidity in the system, people have started to doubt the value of money given so much was being manufactured. Now this situation is in reverse, how can we know where the bottom is?

 

Don't forget how far silver and gold fell after their last rally 20 odd years ago...

It's been a good £ hedge. I wouldn't put my life's savings in it. However, for those who have, if Bubble Vision start shouting buy, watch out below.

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in 20 minutes, you can hear Glenn’s recent interview with Ike Iossif.

 

To listen, go to:

http://www.neowave.com/company-oct2008interview.asp

 

Glenn provides a chronological review of all NEoWave S&P forecasts for the past year, beginning with his January 2008 warning to NEoWave subscribers that the 6-year bull market was over and to prepare for a significant, long-term bear market. (Glenn issued this warning long before the current financial turmoil, bank failures, and government bailouts.) Glenn’s forecasts illustrate how his logical NEoWave process anticipated the entire bear market to date with much greater accuracy than is possible with orthodox Elliott Wave.

 

At minimum, click the above link to read an excerpt of this interview in which Glenn answers the question: What will happen next?

 

"This will be the low for the next 3 to 6 months. Everyone will have a sigh of relief, but this is simply the first phase of an ongoing bear market. We still have a lot more to go. Don't think the worst is over yet. We'll be in big trouble over the next 1 to 2 years."

 

I imagine he is expecting something like this:

 

Etf for S&P 500 (SPY) ... update

aa1qd6.gif

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The real issue however is both of you are trying to predict the future.

 

The real problem gold has is that it doesn't have a dividend, it has little utility, and it doesn't pay a coupon. In short, you can't price it against its potential for future utilisation.

 

True, but i never really worry about that stuff anyway. I see things from a technical analyst point of view and not a fundamentalist point of view - at least in the short to medium term.

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If he has being using Neowave since the 80's and it is so great then i would imagine that he would have a better website than he does and he would also not be spamming financial message boards offering his trading services which are nothing but sketchy predictions (ooh gold will possibly go up in the next two weeks), you would think that if Neely was as great as some say then he would have better things to do with his time than spamming the internet with his services. It looks to me that Neely needs an income and it ain't coming from predicting the future.

 

My grandmother could make better predictions with her tea leaves than this bunion.

 

Some magazine voted his system best trading system for what ? in fact what is this magazine ? i have never heard of it EVER and guess what their website also sucks and looks like it was done by someone new to web design.

 

Traders trade and traders that cannot trade sell dodgy systems to unsuspecting people.

 

neowave is not a system or anything like it but instead a cult for wannabe mystics.

 

If he had been trading this since the 80s and it had any significant alpha, he should be rich beyond compare and extremely famous.

 

I would just like to point that out.

 

If anyone had a system which allowed them to generate above market returns and had been investing with it over the credit expansion, they would have had a very difficult time not doing so.

 

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Many of you asked to see the charts Glenn references during his recent interview with Ike Iossif. As a result, we put our programmers to work and now those charts are included right on the website page along with the audio file of the interview. You can actually start the interview and then view the charts while the audio plays in the background.

 

To hear the interview and view the charts, go to:

 

http://www.neowave.com/company-oct2008interview.asp

 

During the interview, Glenn provides a chronological review of all NEoWave S&P forecasts for the past year, beginning with his January 2008 warning to NEoWave subscribers the 6-year bull market was over and to prepare for a significant, long-term bear market.

 

 

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USING NEOWAVE to make fundamental forecasts

 

NEoWave "tells us" Gold began a bear market at the high in 2008 that will last 4-6 years

... eventually dropping below $500. Based on that information, I then speculate on what fundamental events might unfold to create that reality. Typically the best way to forecast fundamentals is to identify what justified the past. Let me explain. Fundamentals best describe a market's behavior into its highest or lowest point. As Gold was topping early this year, inflation and high international demand were universally trumpeted as the causes. If Gold is going to decline from this year's high for the next 4-6 years and drop below $500 (which wave structure requires), then the "opposite" of inflation (deflation) and decreasing demand (i.e., a slowing international economy) are likely to be the fundamental realities near the low 4-6 years from now. By taking a contrary fundamental perspective, in the early stages of Gold's bear market, we can anticipate the likely future environment that will allow Gold to drop more than $500 over the next 4-6 years. We can also use that new, contrary perspective to plan our financial dealings and investments for the next 4-6 years.

 

In conclusion, any time a market is at an extreme, it is difficult to believe the future that wave structure implies. For example, I've been bearish on the U.S. stock market since late 2007. Wave structure confirmed the Bull Market was OVER in early January of 2008. During that whole period, completely contrary to news events of the time, I warned customers of drastic changes coming, that the economy would get much worse over the next 4 years, that the country was headed for very difficult times, that real estate was going to decline sharply, that our financial institutions were in grave danger, etc. All of that was simply based on observing what occurred into the peak of 2007, when everything was great and business was going fine, then taking the opposite of that environment.

 

That polar-opposite perspective, in late 2007, was very difficult for most to believe, but it is now coming true.

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Question:

Ellioit wave worked well in the 80's, now its accuracy is disappointing. NEoWave works great today, but how can we be sure it will work well 20 years from now?

Answer:

This is one of the most important questions ever asked in this forum and strikes at the core differences between Elliott Wave and NEoWave.

 

Elliott Wave is a concept "locked in time," similar to (but not exactly the same) as curve-fitting a mechanical trading system. By focusing on Fibonacci relationships, with the assumption markets "should" adhere to them, and by using a static, limited group of standardized patterns, the analyst is unable to adapt to the increasingly complex trading world (which probably began with the introduction of computerized analysis and trading systems in the 1990's).

 

On the other hand, the core foundation of NEoWave is LOGIC, not Fibonacci relationships and not the subjective identification of standardized wave patterns. Instead of attempting to force the market to fit a predesigned template, NEoWave is an "after the fact," observational process of logical induction, deduction and logical behavior.

 

For example, if the concept of degree is to have any meaning, it is illogical to have a smaller degree pattern consume more price and more time than a larger degree pattern BUT I see orthodox Elliott Wave analysts constantly break this rule. As a result, their counts must change all the time. As another example, it makes no sense for a correction to stretch upward if the future uptrend is weak (you might need to think about that for a second), BUT I see orthodox Elliott Wave analysts constantly show running corrections followed by advances that are smaller than previous advances. It is also common to see orthodox Elliott Wave analysts produce multiple levels of interlocking 1's and 2's of smaller and smaller degree, with no attention paid to the fact the smaller patterns are subdividing more than the larger patterns.

 

So, how do I know NEoWave will work for the next 20 years and beyond?

Because it is not a complete, static theory, but a constantly evolving phenomenon that does not predefine or pre-suppose future reality. It does not "force" a perspective on the markets, but lets the markets (through logical deduction of behavior) define their own future and their own reality.

 

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(Jan. 6th)

 

A new president will soon be sworn into office, markets are recovering and there is an emerging optimism that the worst may be over. I'd be so happy if that were true. NEoWave structure, unfortunately, tells me the worst is just about to begin. Within less than two months (it could be as soon as a few weeks or even less), the S&P should embark on one of its most violent, scary declines in market history. Wave structure currently suggests a 50% decline (from current levels) is possible in 1-2 months!

 

The markets are not prepared for this; the world is not prepared for this, but we will have to deal with it. The only way this will not occur is if the cash S&P is able to exceed 1006 before breaking last year's low. If 1006 is exceeded, then the future is not clear and I will have no opinion for a while. As long as 1006 is not exceeded, the outlook is dire.

 

As most of you know, I turned officially bearish on the U.S. stock market in mid January 2008. From that point forward, the S&P moved almost exactly as expected all year. Unlike the last 12 months, the next 12 months will be the most treacherous we've ever seen. The only good news I have to report is that, after the big drop, the bear market will be over; but, by then, no one will believe me and the majority of the public will no longer be interested in the stock market. Mutual fund redemptions will reach historic levels - within 1-2 years, financial business and radio shows will start to go off the air and the public's disgust with Wall Street will be so high that a pandemic of law suits will breakout.

 

I do not like being the purveyor of bad news, but wave structure tells me 2008 was just the warm-up for what's coming. Please do everything you can to prepare for this major, financial storm.

 

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I was getting NeoWave daily updates on the S&P and Euro for a trial. He gives entries, exits and stops all very clear.

 

I'm just waiting for my pot size and trading knowledge to increase so I can start trading with money.

 

Getting worried about all this talk though, I all starts to cloud what I though was sure in my head!!!!!

 

The poeple I listen to, when I comes to putting money down are still Bob Hoye and Tony Cherniawski though.

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Financial Planner over at HPC thinks the stock market will rally over the coming months!

Who's going to be correct?

If money in printed it may encourage people to invest in stocks, then again I can't see too many firms doing well over the next few years.

 

 

(Jan. 6th)

 

A new president will soon be sworn into office, markets are recovering and there is an emerging optimism that the worst may be over. I'd be so happy if that were true. NEoWave structure, unfortunately, tells me the worst is just about to begin. Within less than two months (it could be as soon as a few weeks or even less), the S&P should embark on one of its most violent, scary declines in market history. Wave structure currently suggests a 50% decline (from current levels) is possible in 1-2 months!

 

The markets are not prepared for this; the world is not prepared for this, but we will have to deal with it. The only way this will not occur is if the cash S&P is able to exceed 1006 before breaking last year's low. If 1006 is exceeded, then the future is not clear and I will have no opinion for a while. As long as 1006 is not exceeded, the outlook is dire.

 

As most of you know, I turned officially bearish on the U.S. stock market in mid January 2008. From that point forward, the S&P moved almost exactly as expected all year. Unlike the last 12 months, the next 12 months will be the most treacherous we've ever seen. The only good news I have to report is that, after the big drop, the bear market will be over; but, by then, no one will believe me and the majority of the public will no longer be interested in the stock market. Mutual fund redemptions will reach historic levels - within 1-2 years, financial business and radio shows will start to go off the air and the public's disgust with Wall Street will be so high that a pandemic of law suits will breakout.

 

I do not like being the purveyor of bad news, but wave structure tells me 2008 was just the warm-up for what's coming. Please do everything you can to prepare for this major, financial storm.

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(Jan. 6th)

I do not like being the purveyor of bad news, but wave structure tells me 2008 was just the warm-up for what's coming. Please do everything you can to prepare for this major, financial storm.

What do you suggest is the best way to prepare for the major financial storm? The same as cgnao, buy gold etc????

 

The neowave website thinks that gold is in a bear market for 2-4 years and may go as low as $500. Its suggested to hold cash in a safe bank ready to buy up bargains after the crash.

 

http://www.neowave.com/qow-result.asp?qid=...earchterms=gold

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What do you suggest is the best way to prepare for the major financial storm? The same as cgnao, buy gold etc????

 

No debt.

Some cash ($ and others), and some gold.

If inflation starts to take off, get more gold and FX

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My own charts:

I think we are very near a reversal in both (possibly even before early March target)

 

aa1.gif

 

chart ... 4years : 10years : update

big.gif

 

aa2v.gif

 

== ==

 

EWI's charts

20090220_nico.gif

 

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=mw

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I am playing about with an Elliott Wave count

aa3sp1.gif

 

Half of the SPX peak of 1561.8 is SPX-780.9

 

Monday's close was: SPX-770.05 Change: -8.89

 

Half of the SPX peak of 1561.8 is SPX-780.9

 

Monday's close was: SPX-743.33. About 5% below the "half" level.

I am certainly hoping the stock market hang "hang in" near these levels,

else we may see a much more serious breakdown (to SPX-600 or whatever)

 

Other points:

1997 Low was: 737.65 (4/11/1997) / Nov. 2008: 752.44 (11/20/2008)

The Intraday low on 11/21/2008 : 741.02, but closed at 800.03 +6.3%

 

==OTHER COMPARISONS===

Index= 4/11/97 : 11/20/08 : 02/23/09

===== ====== : ====== : ======

SPX.... : 737.65 : .. 752.44 : .. 743.33

INDU.. : 6391.7 : 7552.29 : . 7114.78

nasdaq 1206.9 : 1316.12 : . 1387.72

SOXX : 273.08 : .. 171.32 : .. 189.11

XAU... : 100.72 : .. $70.08 : .. 128.33

OSXX : $72.80 : .. 105.41 : .. 112.07

 

aa4.gif

 

aa3.gif

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...

Today's announcement is on GOLD. Following last week's massive, $130 collapse, Gold has given us EXACTLY the move required to confirm the bull market is OVER!

...

Hmm, maybe the bull is back in town.

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Hmm, maybe the bull is back in town.

His gold call does not look brilliant.

I want to check and see if he has recanted

 

Guess what? I found this:

 

Glenn Neely was recently named the #1 Gold Timer (last 12 months) in the December 8, 2008, edition of Timer Digest. In addition, Timer Digest ranked Glenn in the Top 5 S&P Timers for the last 6 months of 2008 (6/08 to 12/08).

 

Join me in congratulating Glenn on this superb accomplishment, particularly considering the historic volatility of recent markets. In an interview with Ike Iossif, Glenn discusses his outlook on Gold and his expectations for a long-term deflationary environment:

 

http://www.neowave.com/company-nov2008interview.asp

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I imagine he is expecting something like this:

Etf for S&P 500 (SPY) ... update

aa1qd6.gif

The ensuing rally was : SMALLER and more compact, than I had expected

aa1.gif

 

The day BEFORE the Jan.7th, 2009 top, Neely emailed this:

"NEoWave structure, unfortunately, tells me the worst is just about to begin. Within less than two months (it could be as soon as a few weeks or even less), the S&P should embark on one of its most violent, scary declines in market history. Wave structure currently suggests a 50% decline (from current levels) is possible in 1-2 months! The markets are not prepared for this; the world is not prepared for this, but we will have to deal with it. The only way this will not occur is if the cash S&P is able to exceed 1006 before breaking last year's low. If 1006 is exceeded, then the future is not clear and I will have no opinion for a while. As long as 1006 is not exceeded, the outlook is dire.

 

As most of you know, I turned officially bearish on the U.S. stock market in mid January 2008. From that point forward, the S&P moved almost exactly as expected all year. Unlike the last 12 months, the next 12 months will be the most treacherous we've ever seen. The only good news I have to report is that, after the big drop, the bear market will be over; but, by then, no one will believe me and the majority of the public will no longer be interested in the stock market. Mutual fund redemptions will reach historic levels - within 1-2 years, financial business and radio shows will start to go off the air and the public's disgust with Wall Street will be so high that a pandemic of law suits will breakout.

 

I do not like being the purveyor of bad news, but wave structure tells me 2008 was just the warm-up for what's coming.'

 

Thank goodness, his "1-2 month period" will be over in about 10 days - 2 weeks

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Contrary to wildly bullish forecasts of the time, Glenn turned adamantly bearish just 4 days after the March 2008 all-time high of $1048 (basis Dec. futures). At the same time, he confirmed to subscribers the 4- to 6-year bear market had begun (which he had long anticipated) and, shockingly, he predicted Gold would break $500 an ounce by 2012. In just 6 months, Gold dropped $367 off its historic high, recently bottoming at $681 – a 35% decline.

 

What?? :lol:

 

Can this guy be taken seriously?

 

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What?? :lol:

Can this guy be taken seriously?

I do take him seriously. His track record is superb. He was top Gold timer in 2008.

And this is one (of several) reasons I have been lightening up on Gold shares.

A drop from a double top to $500 cannot be ruled out.

And we are in the right season for a high in Gold, whatever the bulls have been saying.

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I do take him seriously. His track record is superb. He was top Gold timer in 2008.

And this is one (of several) reasons I have been lightening up on Gold shares.

A drop from a double top to $500 cannot be ruled out.

And we are in the right season for a high in Gold, whatever the bulls have been saying.

 

I do agree with you regarding the correction but i dont think seasonality will have such an influence here because isnt it (seasonality) fueled by jewellery demand?.

This move in gold is fundamentally down to investment demand, this makes it even more dicey, fear and greed can turn a market before you realise what has happened.

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