NEOwave Warnings - from Glenn Nealy

[drbubb]

(Glenn Neely tackles a question that many may want to ask)

He had stated: "June 11, 2009 would be the high of the year"

 

Question:

The market has moved higher since you called for a top. Is that a failure of wave theory or did you make a mistake or misjudgement?

Answer:

To understand the answer to this question requires a complex understanding of wave theory and its limitations. Most followers of Elliott Wave (EW) assume the theory is capable of explaining - in real time - all market action at all times. Unfortunately, that simply is not true. The world thought Newton had everything figured out until Einstein came along. Even though R.N. Elliott's Wave principle was the most revolutionary and comprehensive theory of its time, it had flaws, namely the absence of logic and self-confirmation (traits NEoWave brings to the table). But, even with the great advances NEoWave delivers, there are still "holes" in the theory. For that reason, there are times when EW and NEoWave analysts simply can't predict what will occur next.

 

For example, during the early stages of a correction (i.e., during wave-A), predictability will be high and both EW and NEoWave analysts can appear to have an almost supernatural ability to predict the future. This occurred for me during wave-A of the current bear market starting at 2000's high through mid 2003. Once wave-B got underway, day-to-day, week-to-week and even month-to-month predictability dropped noticeably, which always occurs during B-waves. The larger the B-wave, the longer the period of uncertainty. At best, during B-waves, one can hope to get market direction correct, but predicting future price action in detail is extremely risky and likely to produce embarrassment.

 

As wave-B ended in late 2007, structural clarity increased once again. By January 2008, as wave-C got underway, predictability returned and the ability to make specific forecasts was possible for the next 12+ months (i.e., during the first 25% of wave-C). With the first year of wave-C now history, and as the S&P moves closer to the center of an even larger correction, predictability has dropped to its lowest level since the start of the bear market September 2000. We can say with near certainty that wave-C will be a four year correction (i.e., it will last until 2012), but we can't say what type of correction it will be (i.e., whether a Flat, Triangle or complex Correction). For that reason we won't be able to predict exactly how the S&P will unfold the next few years. There will be brief periods, at major market turns within wave-C, when I'll be able to project future price action, but trading (based on wave theory) will be difficult until at least early 2010.

 

In early 2000, based on my knowledge that wave structure would become increasingly more difficult to decipher as the 20 year correction progressed, I began work on a completely new way of thinking about, dealing with and trading markets. I knew substantial portions of time would exist during that 20 year period where I would not be able to predict what was going to happen next, or that forecasting errors (and embarrassment, like what I experienced recently when I stated June 11, 2009 would be the high of the year) would become more common. As a result, a completely new way of looking at and dealing with markets, with a focus on trading technology and risk management, would be necessary to survive the next 20 years. That was the beginning of what has evolved into NEELY RIVER THEORY - a now crucial part of all NEoWave Trading updates.

 

There is always the possibility an analyst will make a mistake or miss an important concept when doing wave analysis. That does not change the basic fact that wave theory does not have all the answers at all times. It is for that foundational reason I missed more than half of the March 2009-to-present rally in the stock market. It simply was NOT predictable and could not be counted on. That statement is correct whether other EW analysts took the chance and stayed bullish on the market from March's low. Logically speaking, and from a certainty and safety standpoint, only 1/3 to 1/2 of the March-to-present rally could be depended on. The rest of the rally did not ruin or negate wave theory (structure could be adjusted to allow for it), but the rally could not be expected with certainty at the time the pattern was developing.

 

/see: http://www.neowave.com/qow.asp

[drbubb]

Glenn Neely's book...

 

Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method:

The First Scientific, Objective Approach to Market Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Theory (version 2) (Hardcover)

 

Review Excerpts:

(1)

Not for the faint of heart--for serious traders only!

Just about 5 years ago, I began seriously studying the markets. I was heavily influenced by many experts that this thing called Tecnical Analysis was a bunch of BS.

Five years, and thousands of dollars (in profits) later, I can tell you that technical analysis is a crucial tool in dealing with the fundamental uncertainty we traders deal with every day.

...more

(2)

Loads of great knowledge, but hard, hard work!

I read this book a couple of years ago, and found it fascinating and highly detailed. I imagine that for some very technically minded people this is something they can really get their teeth into and enjoy. But for simple folk like me, it was just too much, and I found much simpler methods to interpret Elliott waves that didn't take half as much time or knowledge. So, I give it a 3 star rating as its brilliance is somewhat dampened by its complexity.

(3)

If you are looking for a general introduction to Elliott Wave theory and practice this book is not for you. I would suggest starting with Prechter's "Elliott Wave Principle" from 1979. If you are prepared to spend a lot of time working through the minutiae of the rules and conditions contained within this book, however, (especially using your own data) you will find this a most rewarding endeavour. Wave theory is not for the faint-hearted, it requires a lot of time and application to give you the building blocks to come up with a view of the market.

( A. M. B. Stevenson - Midlevels, HK)

 

/see: http://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Elliot-Wav...howViewpoints=1

 

BOOK:: http://www.scribd.com/doc/14344292/Elliott-Wave-Glenn-Neely

[drbubb]

yelnick on neely and zoran...

 

Michael, yes, if this is indeed a major Interim top then all major indexes should act in kind, although maybe not in concert (ie at the same time). What will be interesting is whether the blow out Amazon earnings will matter tomorrow. AAPL didn't, nor did the EBAY bust. The Wilshire in particular should be very much like the S&P (the two broad indexes). The Naz and the R2K might vary the most.

 

As to trading, if you are long, probably best to ride it out for the moment. If short, be a little anxious before jumping deeper into the river. Based on Elliott wave, best plan now is stand aside until a break of the 0-X trendline (running Sp1048 tomorrow then 1050 next Mon.

 

I mentioned Zoran in the prior post. He was taking Neely and simplifying when he died. Neely's work is quite amazing in its ever-growing complexity, but inside of that complexity lie some pretty clear rules. A lot can be summarized with the concept of Bifurcation out of a trading range, which is usually not horizontal but captured within a channel. This market since Mar has twice spiked fast then slowed into a channel. The spike is the Thrust that is tradeable and the channel is the Plateau which is not. We broke out of the first channel in Jun, then spiked up; now we remain in a second channel. A break below that channel of a steeper slope than the channel itself (think reflecting the angle from up to down) is a Bifurcation. Until then, this could continue to subdivide up.

 

One of the great benefits of Zoran's view is that one need not have a wave count or prediction at all times; just wait for the high probability calls which come with Bifurcations. Zoran was also attempting to project those Bifurcations using Fib and Lucas relationships between Bifurcations.

 

Posted by: Yelnick | Thursday, October 22, 2009 at 10:32 PM

 

/see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/10...d.html#comments

[drbubb]

From Neely an hour ago / actually: yesterday

 

"So far, the S&P is following the reddashed

projection line almost exactly.

That gives the “wave-( B ) isn’t over”

scenario greater weight, which means

one more, larger rally is underway. If

correct, I would expect a top near the

1200 level. Optimism should get very

high by then, allowing us to go Short."

 

Says nothing about 1093, so there...Point being, he's calling for another 10% upside.

 

Posted by: Ed | Monday, November 09, 2009 at 11:30 AM

 

2/

Neely is calling for further upside IF a specific condition gets hit. As of now, he's saying the market can go either way until it crosses one of two lines.

 

That's the proper context to put his update in. If we don't cross that line and then don't rally another 10%, you can't say he was wrong because he clearly made crossing that line a precondition.

 

Again, I don't understand what is so difficult about reporting facts and forecasts in context.

 

Posted by: DG | Monday, November 09, 2009 at 11:37 AM

 

/see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11...e.html#comments

[drbubb]

...it is so relevant, I thought I would post this comment from Y. here...

 

I, and his NeoWave followers got totally crushed. It was extremely painful. I lost a lot of trading capital on that forecast,

 

Hey, man, I feel your pain. Trust me, I know what losses are like and they are definitely painful, but they are also the only tuition the market will accept. If your key takeaway from it was to never use NeoWave again, that's obviously your prerogative. I also had a big loss in 2007 when Neely was calling for a big rally. I did buy options and when we had that big dump in February/March, they expired worthless. The problem was clearly me, though, especially my selection of trading vehicle. Obviously, had I just gone long ETFs, I would have been able to benefit from the rally that ensued following that minor blip. OK, my fault, clearly.

 

And DG says that Neely was merely early?

Early from what???

 

And DG goes on to claim that Neely will still be right at some point because "it is essentially reflective of what will happen" . . . Are you kidding me???

 

He's been wrong and is now calling for much higher S&P targets!

 

"Early" in the sense that the pattern he thought was coming to and end was actually only the first five segments of a seven-segment pattern, rather than the five segments of a five-segment pattern. That's my current hypothesis, anyway, and the market hasn't done anything to "break" that count. If that hypothesis turns out to be correct, the call for new lows will be proven out and we'll go under the March 2009 lows at some point in 2010.

 

The pattern allows for a move to over 1200 before this occurs.

 

I will say this. I left my job in July to trade full-time. I study markets and charts a minimum of 12-14 hours a day. I plot my own NeoWave intraday charts in Excel, entering all the data by hand, to keep a finger on the market's pulse. I watch almost every tick of every trading day, then when the cash market closes, I watch the futures, then watch the foreign markets overnight. This is on top of constantly reading and re-reading Mastering Elliott Wave and Neely's other publications. I'd be interested to see what others who are saying they can't get wave theory to work for them are doing in those areas. Neely is always my starting point for my view of the markets because his analysis is so methodical and provides a great base to work with. But, it's still just that, a starting point. After Neely's top call failed, I decided that I was going to start being more aggressive making my own NeoWave-based trades. Since then, I've made 41 trades and had 36 winners/5 losers, with an average holding period of about 5 days. There were 10 trades that I should have taken, but subjectively allowed myself to talk myself out of. All 10 were winners. Depending on whether I include the trades I should have taken or not, I'm running at a 50-70% annual rate of return. On a fully-leveraged basis (taking advantage of full margin), my rate of return would be about 400% annualized.

 

So, you tell me why I should listen to anyone's complaints about Neely when I'm getting results like that, even if only for a 4-month period?

Posted by: DG | Tuesday, November 10, 2009 at 09:55 AM

 

/see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11...e.html#comments

[drbubb]

"... the “wave-( B ) isn’t over” scenario greater weight, which means one more, larger rally is underway.

If correct, I would expect a top near the 1200 level. Optimism should get very high by then, allowing us to go Short."

Says nothing about 1093, so there...Point being, he's calling for another 10% upside.

 

10-minute interview with Glenn Neely, recorded in November 2010.

 

http://www.neowave.com/company-nov2010interview.asp

 

chart : http://www.neowave.com/audiointerviews/Cha...recastvsact.pdf

 

"I’m pretty confident that this count is not only still on track but that the fourth wave that’s at the bottom righthand corner of the chart is not going to end with that C-Wave. The CWave will be part of a larger pattern that will involve a D-Wave and an EWave. This is going to go on for another five to 10 years."

 

Interviewer: Where are we now?

 

We’re past the midpoint of this 20-year correction. It happened around 2009 or 2010.

We’re past that point, and from this point forward, predictability should be better, though not great, for the whole next 10 years. It will be better than it was during the late 2008, early 2009, and late 2009 period.

 

Interviewer: Glenn, as this eight-year forecast plays out, we’re at about 6.5 years into

this forecast with about 1.5 years to go. Can you address what you think

will happen with the S&P through the end of 2010?

 

Glenn Neely: You can tell that the drop in 2008 was quite vertical and violent, and it broke comfortably below the lows of 2002. It was so violent, and the recovery has been slower and more choppy, that it’s extremely suggestive that we’re in either in a contracting triangle (which would be a contracting phase for the next two years, probably into late 2012 or early 2013) or that we’re in a flat pattern with the B-Wave rallying very soon to finish.

 

On a large scale, the final phase of the bear market, which will conclude Wave-C, should begin sometime this year or early next. That will bring us back down toward the lows of 2009. I don’t know if it’s going to break it, but it should get pretty close.

 

(2)

On September 5, 2000, the S&P began a 20-30 year correction for wave-4. Why 20-30 years? Because wave-3 took nearly 20 years and 4th-waves must take more time than 3rd waves (at least when they are part of a standard impulsion, which this one is). While in wave-4's "downtrend," any rally must be counter-trend (i.e., corrective). So, for the next 20+ years, any large rally in the S&P MUST be - by definition - counter to the larger downtrend (i.e., the rally must be wave-b, wave-d, wave-x, wave-2 or wave-4). In this case it appears to be wave-( of a larger C-wave that began January 2008. So, no matter how large the rally off 2009's low becomes, it will be counter-trend (i.e., a correction of the ongoing downtrend - not a new, bull market). This is reinforced by the fact the rally off 2009's low is designed like a correction (not an impulsion), which means it does not contain 5-waves. When corrections get very large and last a year or more, it is confusing to non-Wave analysts how a large rally cannot be called a "bull market," but it is a matter of "definition," not duration or size of the upmove.

 

This question exposes a crucial flaw of wave analysis, which I've stated many times in the past - that markets, under Wave theory, are NOT predictable all the time, especially during the middle of corrections (i.e., B-waves in Flats and Zigzags, C-waves in Triangles, X-waves in complex formations, D-waves in Diametrics and E-waves in Symmetricals [the last two are NEoWave formations). The rally since 2009's low appears to be the (-wave of a correctively designed, downward-moving C-wave that began January 2008. That puts the S&P in the middle of the middle of a 20-30 year correction, which is the time when wave structure is the most difficult to decipher and when forecasting is highly prone to error. The forecasts released by most EW analysts since mid 2009, including myself, attest to the difficulty of predicting markets while Wave structure is close to the middle of a large, complex, multi-year (or multi-decade) formation.

 

/more: http://www.neowave.com/qow.asp

[Jake]

Interviewer: Where are we now?

 

 

This question exposes a crucial flaw of wave analysis, which I've stated many times in the past - that markets, under Wave theory, are NOT predictable all the time, especially during the middle of corrections (i.e., B-waves in Flats and Zigzags, C-waves in Triangles, X-waves in complex formations, D-waves in Diametrics and E-waves in Symmetricals [the last two are NEoWave formations). The rally since 2009's low appears to be the (-wave of a correctively designed, downward-moving C-wave that began January 2008. That puts the S&P in the middle of the middle of a 20-30 year correction, which is the time when wave structure is the most difficult to decipher and when forecasting is highly prone to error. The forecasts released by most EW analysts since mid 2009, including myself, attest to the difficulty of predicting markets while Wave structure is close to the middle of a large, complex, multi-year (or multi-decade) formation.[/i]

 

In other words, we could be ANYWHERE or YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS MINE.

 

Ok ok I'm taking the piss a bit...but it does seem a bit difficult to get a handle on, even by admission for himself. I suppose we'll never know where we are until afterwards then we can say 'oh that must have been my exit off the motorway back there' [ as we go speeding past]. So much for 'navigation systems'.

 

[drbubb]

In other words, we could be ANYWHERE or YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS MINE.

 

Ok ok I'm taking the piss a bit...but it does seem a bit difficult to get a handle on, even by admission for himself. I suppose we'll never know where we are until afterwards then we can say 'oh that must have been my exit off the motorway back there' [ as we go speeding past]. So much for 'navigation systems'.

Actually,

What he is really saying is the Stocks have moved PAST the point of unpredictability, and are becoming more predictable again.

 

He sees the present Rally terminating somewhere between SPX-1300 and 1350

[drbubb]

SELL on Weakness, says Neely:

 

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...st&id=18195

 

also: http://www.mexicomike.ca/php/phpBB2/viewto...er=&start=0

[drbubb]

(He caught the high, it seems):

 

February 22, 2011 – Today, the U.S. stock market experienced a major selloff, falling more than 2%. According to Glenn Neely, Wave theory expert and founder of NEoWave Institute, this confirms the end of the rally off November 30, 2010’s low and probably the end of the bull market that began at 2009’s low.

 

Recently, Mr. Neely warned subscribers to the NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services that a “major event” was on the horizon. In preparation, Mr. Neely instructed trading customers to go Short, right at last Friday’s high and clsoe, which is currently top-tick of the month!

 

Applying NEoWave’s advanced market confirmation techniques, Mr. Neely explains that today’s collapse confirms the end of an old pattern and the start of a new one. This new pattern suggests a 1- to 2-year bear market has begun and will likely result in a 30+% drop in market valuation.

 

While economic conditions have improved greatly since 2009’s low, NEoWave warns a new downturn (lasting 1- to 2-years) is beginning. As is always the case, markets anticipate future economic reality. While news has been improving, wave structure warns the U.S. stock market has turned a corner, setting the stage for an “echo” of the 2008/2009 financial crisis – but this time with a new twist. Instead of financial institutions and real estate markets being devastated, Mr. Neely suspects the most likely justification for this future market decline will be severe financial problems for federal, state and local governments. The result could be local and national transportation disruptions, public service problems and government employee layoffs around the country. Other circumstances that might justify a 30+% decline in the stock market could be a substantial increase in the cost of energy or a drastic increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (i.e. deflation).

[drbubb]

I will read this later - when I have time...

 

Glenn Neely’s recent article, “Trading Strategies to Employ in Today’s Challenging Markets,” in the latest issue of Trader’s World magazine.

 

Click the link below to download the PDF, then open it to page 32 to read the article:

 

http://www.tradersworld.com/archives/download.html

 

or here:

http://downloads.payloadz.com/45951%2f48.p...ZM3D44FSG20CP82

[drbubb]

STILL BEARISH - this is from Yelnick's BUY THE DIP Spoof

 

Neely jumped on this today with his second top call. His first was in June 2009 after the initial runup off the March 2009 low. It tainted his reputation when the market turned inexorably back up, so this call is all all-or-nothing move by him:

 

Applying NEoWave’s advanced market confirmation techniques, Mr. Neely explains that today’s collapse confirms the end of an old pattern and the start of a new one. This new pattern suggests a 1- to 2-year bear market has begun and will likely result in a 30+% drop in market valuation. ...

 

Instead of financial institutions and real estate markets being devastated, Mr. Neely suspects the most likely justification for this future market decline will be severe financial problems for federal, state and local governments. The result could be local and national transportation disruptions, public service problems and government employee layoffs around the country. Other circumstances that might justify a 30+% decline in the stock market could be a substantial increase in the cost of energy or a drastic increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (i.e. deflation).

 

So Neely is calling for the bursting of the final bubble, the Government Bubble. Could be. "Austerity" is the new black. States are all cutting back. The irony of the protests in Wisconsin is that the protesters are trying to hold onto the status quo, whereas the Libyans (and Egyptian, Tunisians et al.) are trying to upend it. Which side is history on? We shall find out.

 

Neely's logic on the USD is that once the Government Bubble bursts, the stimulus and subsidies end, leading to improving the prospects for the currency. Why? A falling currency is really a bet against unsound government policies; and at the same time rising gold becomes a hedge against bad government. At some point excessive stimulus/subsidy/easy-credit has to end, and we may have reached that point. Deleveraging will follow, with a vengeance, and the Dollar will soar.

 

/see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2011/02/buy-the-dip.html

[drbubb]

... Not much interest in this thread recently, but I shall persist...

... Neely is calling for the bursting of the final bubble, the Government Bubble. Could be. "Austerity" is the new black. States are all cutting back. The irony of the protests in Wisconsin is that the protesters are trying to hold onto the status quo, whereas the Libyans (and Egyptian, Tunisians et al.) are trying to upend it. Which side is history on? We shall find out.

 

/see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2011/02/buy-the-dip.html

...here's a Comment on Neely's record from the Yelnick Blog's comment section:

 

Here is the real scoop on Neely.

 

The market bottomed in March of 2009. Neely did not come close to predicting the exact low, in fact he thought it would go much lower, like to 500 or lower. Here is Neely's most famous call. It was broadcast the world over. Neely was going to show everyone how good he really was. This was June of 2009, post the last big bottom. A very famous call, NOT.

 

“Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October’s low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction,” Neely explains. “The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!” Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917."

 

Things did not go as Neely opined. But he clung to something of similarity for a long long time following that. The following are Neely's words, let us just say about Sept 2009.

 

 

"In January 2008, I warned customers and the public that a massive, new bear market was underway. That bear market unfolded almost exactly as originally predicted on both a price and time basis. It seemed almost impossible, at the time, the U.S. stock market would experience a 50%+ decline in less than a year, but that was what NEoWave theory told me and that is what occurred.

 

As I have said many times in the past, as a market moves toward the center of a large, complex corrective formation, predictability becomes more and more difficult. It usually reaches the point where you can;t predict what will occur next, confusion is high, inaccurate forecasts are common, everyone is looking for answers (when few are possible) and a level of public agitation or irritation is obvious.

 

That point of confusion is exactly where the S&P is right now. After a year of extremely accurate market forecasts (I was in Timer Digest's Top 10 repeatedly the last 12 months), the S&P is now in the dead center of a 15-20 year, complex correction that began September 2000. Until the S&P moves far from this part of its structure, I will (at best) be able to predict general market direction, but not specific day-to-day behavior. This same phenomenon occurred from 2004 to 2006 when I knew a "bull market" was underway, but I could not predict, with wave theory, exactly how it would unfold.

 

The continuing rally in the S&P has forced me to reconsider the design of the bear market from January 2008. Initially, I thought it would be a complex correction that pushed to new lows at least once more before the lowest point of this 20 year bear market was reached. But, recent action brings into question that assumption and raises new possibilities. For that reason, I went back to my S&P archives and looked up the various scenarios I originally created for the 4+ year bear market starting January 2008. Attached is one of those scenarios that still explains the past, fits current evidence and explains the magnitude of the rally off 2009's low. If correct, the 2008 to 2012+ time frame is a contracting Triangle that will eventually end much higher than 2009's low. It also means 2009's low will not be broken for the next 50 years!

 

This feels eerily like my call in 1988, just 8 months after the 1987 crash low, when I was the only wave analyst in the world predicting 1987's low would never be broken for the rest of my life. The count attached to this email is not yet my "official" wave count, but it is quickly becoming a serious choice. Over the next few weeks it should become more obvious the path this phase of the 20-year bear market will follow."

 

 

Charts continued to accompany this hysteria, and showed an 'A' bottom higher than Neely predicted, followed by some small 'B' rebound, a 'C' decline, a 'D' rebound and an 'E' decline to an end of wave count per Neowave, for the bear. The noted rebounds were much lower than what we experienced, and in fact the pattern we have experienced shows no resemblance to this prediction.

 

Neely clung to this concept for a long long time, and as bantered about on the web made repeated short attempts with his trading.

 

Following all of this incorrect predictive prowess on Neely's part we then would up with the infamous "it's an unpredictable market" paper on Safehaven and elsewhere.

 

He has another paper out on trading strategies, latter half of 2010. I dunno but maybe one trading strategy would be to know when to fade Glenn Neely.

 

To say that Neely called two tops is an understatement. That is how I feel about it.

 

Jose

== ==

 

From what I have seen, this is a bit unfair to Neely.

I do nkow that he accurately call the LOW at the end of August, while I remained Bearish.

[Jake]

What does Neely have to say/had to say on... gold? He couldn't have been worse than Prechter-so far.

[drbubb]

What does Neely have to say/had to say on... gold? He couldn't have been worse than Prechter-so far.

He is not so clear as stocks.

Was awaiting a more apparent buying or selling set-up.

[drbubb]

Looking back, to look forward

 

BACK

 

Forward? from the interview:

http://kiprushov.wordpress.com/2011/01/29/an-interview-with-glenn-neely-founder-neowave-institute/

 

Question: Can you share trading advice for this unpredictable time? How do we make money during the next four to six years?

 

Glenn Neely: This Unpredictable phase does make trading far more dangerous. As the market moves toward the center formation, our focus has to shift away from dependability on Wave structure and Wave patterns that you would expect to occur. Now, trading strategies must be based on bottom-line-oriented capital management strategies. Traders and investors need to look to market trading strategies that are outside the realm of Wave Theory.

 

The best way to deal with unpredictable stock markets is to use what I call second-tier technologies: strategies for trading, risk management, and capital management that are independent of Wave Theory. Clearly, when the stock market is harder to predict, it’s harder to trade. Therefore, you need to be much more careful about risk management and protecting your capital. You need to minimize risk and maximize potential. In this unpredictable environment, you need to reduce the emphasis on predicting the stock market and place the emphasis on careful, strategic trading and on strategies to preserve capital.

/interview : http://www.neowave.com/company-nov2010interview.asp

[drbubb]

NEOWAVE: Trading Performance Data now Available

 

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We invite you to view our detailed spreadsheets (plus 7 companion charts) showing individual, yearly and accumulated performance. Based on real-time, real-world advice, NEoWave consistently beat the market since 2007. In fact, the net of all Daily and Weekly NEoWave Trading recommendations was more than $172,000 (assuming 1 Futures contract per recommendation). A NEoWave customer – following all trades the last 4 years – would have experienced a 400% return on starting capital of $40,000.

 

Click to view Trading Service performance data on the website.

 

The NEoWave Team

[bobbyald141]

I started reading this thread not realising that it began in 2008 and it highlights just how useless most financial commentators are.

 

The first post has two charts. The first is of GLD when gold was around $800 and is accompanied by the following comment: Today's announcement is on GOLD. Following last week's massive, $130 collapse, Gold has given us EXACTLY the move required to confirm the bull market is OVER!

 

The other chart shows a “likely” projection of the SPY and a new low in the summer of 2009.

 

With hopeless forecasting like this why should anyone listen to NEOwave?

 

We see many forecasts on GEI and elsewhere but never go back to all those busy charts with meaningless coloured lines all over them but if we did I know exactly what they would show – the whole charade is meaningless.

[drbubb]

"If you are going to forecast, Forecast often."

 

And if you are going to read forecasts, read them often.

It depends what your expectations are, how useful they will be.

 

I think you can get an edge from reading the work of a good forecaster, but my expectations are nowhere near the 100% level. If they are 60-70% accurate, they can be very useful when combined with good money management. And they may also help to identify key points for stops and where a trader should change his view.

 

I have this "more tolerant" attitude, because I have tried forecasting myself, with some good and bad results, and so have a more realistic attitude about what is possible.

[drbubb]

Did the Mayans get it right?

 

We invite you to listen to a new audio interview with Glenn Neely in which he addresses a fascinating topic: “Did the Mayans get it right? Predictions for the 2012 stock market.”

 

In this interview, Mr. Neely examines several social manias and how they impact the stock market, including the current “end-of-world” predictions relating to the “end” of the Mayan calendar.

 

As you may know, Wave theory describes how groups of people behave (also known as mass psychology) in a market environment. In this new interview, Mr. Neely looks at several past social manias and how these examples of mass social behavior impacted the stock market. Next, he discusses the current social mania – the “end-of-world” predictions linked to the “end” of the Mayan calendar – and how this mass psychology might impact the market as we approach “the end” in December 2012. In addition, he offers extensive thoughts on his market predictions for the years and decades beyond 2012.

 

Click to hear the recorded interview or read the transcript for this interview: “Did the Mayans Get it Right? Predictions for the 2012 Stock Market.”

 

http://www.neowave.com/company-interviews.asp

[drbubb]

“Round up” of Glenn Neely’s Standings in Timer Digest

In the first quarter of 2013, Timer Digest recognized Glenn Neely with multiple listings as a Top 10 Timer.

Rankings for the 1^st quarter of 2013 include:

• • #1 Bond Timer for the entire year of 2012 (Special Annual Report)
  
• • Top 5 Bond Timer for the last 12 months (January issue of Timer Digest)
  
• • #1 Bond Timer for the last 12 months (February issue)
  
• • Top 5 Bond Timer for the last 12 months (March issue)
  
• • Top 10 S&P Timer (March 16 “hotline” report)
  

Plus, Timer Digest’s Special Annual Report, published in January, showed Mr. Neely’s rankings as a Top 10 Timer for the S&P, Gold, and Bond markets for the last 14 years.

Here are Mr. Neely’s S&P rankings:

• • Top 5 Timer for last 3 years
  
• • Top 5 Timer for last 5 years
  
• • Top 10 Timer for last 8 years
  

In addition, he is recognized in the “Honor Roll” as a:

• • Top 10 S&P Timer for 2001 and 2011
  
• • Top 5 Gold Timer for 1999, 2000, and 2004
  
• • Top 5 Bond Timer for 2003
  

View the complete list of Mr. Neely’s Timer Digest rankings.

[drbubb]

Tony C, yet another E-wave Timer, says:

 

 

The market gapped down at the open today for the second time this week.

 

The last time this market gapped down twice in one week was in late November leading to the irregular Minor wave 2 pullback. This gap down has led to the second 9+ point pullback without making a new high. Since the Minor 2 wave low in late December every 9+ point pullback has led to a higher high. Every one! The only exception was Minor wave 4.

 

Yesterday we noted the DOW made a new bull market high. Today the DOW came within one point of retracing that entire new high rally. The market has been quite choppy this week, which is another negative after a four month uptrend. This uptrend definitely appears to be losing upside momentum again.

 

Short term support is at the 1523 and 1499 pivots, with resistance at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from overbought yesterday to oversold today. The short term OEW turned negative again, they have vacillated for most of the week, with the reversal level now SPX 1552. Best to your trading!

 

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening again

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.c...c/1269446/tenpp

[drbubb]

Gold's Done - $1,000 is coming, says Neely...

 

Latest opinion of my Hedge Fund friends, B-and-E*.

*per recent email:

"Gold support broken, more declines expected. Target $1200-1300/oz."

== ==

 

Personally, I still think it can hold $1450, and think this selloff was "engineered" by Goldman Sachs.

== ==

 

(Meantime, from Glenn Neely):

 

NEOWAVE: Gold's Bull market is Over

Sunday, 14 April, 2013 1:04

• 6505_MCGOLD.PDF
  

For nearly 2 years, I've warned NEoWave GOLD customers that the precious metal probably topped in mid 2011. Gold spent the last 20 months consolidating, until this week, when the June contract dropped (from high to low) more than $114. If you go back to the start of 2013, Gold's decline is more than $223! At today's low, Gold is $457 below 2011's high - a decline of nearly 24%!

 

For the above reasons, I no longer need to speculate but can confirm Gold's bull market is over. On the attached chart, the wave count presented projects Gold will drop another $500 from current levels (all the way down to $1,000/ounce in just the next few years or less - a 50% decline from high to low). Such a large decline can mean only one thing - DEFLATION (i.e., nearly everything denominated in U.S. dollars will decline in value the next few years). This will cause huge problems for U.S. bank mortgages and is the reason the FED has been "pumping" so much money into the bond market - it is yet another tactic (in a long list since 2008) to counteract the credit implosion that began 4+ years ago with the stock market crash.

 

Unfortunately, this "credit implosion" is on a global basis and is too large for the FED to control. For those with lots of cash on hand, and limited assets, the next 2-3 years should produce a boom in future spending power.

 

Sincerely,

Glenn Neely

[happy]

from transcript 18. April, 2013

 

I’ve been warning customers for a long time that I thought the high of $1,900 in 2011 was probably the top. I said there was a chance we might go comfortably higher a little bit, but I kept repeating that most likely was the end of the pattern and that it would finish at a lower high.

 

. . .

 

We needed to see a drop in the gold market bigger and faster than anything we’ve seen during Wave 5, which I think started way back in 2008 or early 2009. That has been accomplished. That’s the first stage of confirmation.

 

A lot of people think, “This big sell-off in gold is probably done. All the weak ends have been shaken out. The banks and all these people have been holding. It was just overly subscribed and invested in. It’s just temporary. We’re eventually going to go higher.”

 

Wave Theory says completely the opposite. This confirmation event indicates that Wave 5 is finished. Of course, Wave 5 is the end of an even bigger pattern. After this first decline, we might bounce for a little while, and maybe even bounce quite a bit. It could bounce as much as $150 off this current low, but then we need the next stage of confirmation. It won’t be confirming the end of Wave 5. It will be confirming the end of the entire pattern that started at the low in 2005.

 

Unfortunately for anybody long on gold, this requires that we’re going to drop below $1,000 sometime potentially this year. We’re talking about another catastrophic decline in the price of gold to levels that people currently cannot imagine.

 

. . .

 

If everybody got extremely concerned and super bearish and pessimistic all of a sudden, that’s probably the low. That has not been the case. It has just been, “Oh my god! What’s happening? Why did this happen? That’s just temporary. Everything is going to get back to normal.”

 

. . .

 

People don’t understand that we’re not in the kind of financial world we were 200 or 100 years ago.

 

. . .

 

The money that is in the system gets there through the actual request to borrow money. The money doesn’t exist before the request, and then it does exist once the request occurs.

 

Our whole system for the last 100 years has been built on this growing request for credit and growing economic-industrial complex and businesses all needing money and borrowing it from banks. That borrowing process created the money.

 

What we’re experiencing now is the end of that credit explosion that has been going on for at least 100 years since the Fed was formed. They were formed in 1913, I think. That means it has been exactly 100 years.

 

That whole process is coming to an end, according to the gold structure. We’re actually going to start the reverse of that, which would be a credit implosion.

 

. . .

 

Based on gold versus the dollar, it indicates that the peak of the credit expansion occurred in 2011.

 

. . .

 

The big crash in Gold we saw this week is an indication that that game is now over and that the whole world will be going through a credit implosion.

 

. . .

 

Cash will probably be the best place to have your money for the next few years, and it’ll be almost like an investment.

 

. . .

 

I’m not sure exactly how this is going to pan out, but I’m virtually positive that the Gold market has peaked, that we’re going to be in a bear market for three, four or five years minimum and that the downsize target minimum is way below $1,000.

[drbubb]

Gold over shot the $150 rally target

 

Neely wrote about a $150 Rally in the Gold price - we had it... Even more than $150

 

" It could bounce as much as $150 off this current low, but then we need the next stage of confirmation. It won’t be confirming the end of Wave 5. It will be confirming the end of the entire pattern that started at the low in 2005.

Unfortunately for anybody long on gold, this requires that we’re going to drop below $1,000 sometime potentially this year. We’re talking about another catastrophic decline in the price of gold to levels that people currently cannot imagine."

===

/see: http://www.greenener...pic=4762&st=120

 

GLD /Gold ... update