Pixel8r Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I see the Silver/Gold price shot back up today...right around the time we usually get a sell off. Strange?? Silver and gold are climbing the wall of worry at the moment. Soon the fear will be dispelled IMO I expect to see silver take off before gold as we pull out of this indecision not the sell off that some are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSilverWeTrust Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Enough is enough! Ted Butler's latest - http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butl...y10-21-09.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 Enough is enough! Ted Butler's latest - http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butl...y10-21-09.shtml The weekly metal wrap released on Saturday on King World News should be an interesting one. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Bro...cast_Gold+.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 21, 2009 Report Share Posted October 21, 2009 I listened to the Toronto CIGA conference with Jim Sinclair recently. Jim will reassess his silver holding when gold hits $1,200. He'd then like to see $21-$22 in silver IIRC, otherwise he'd possibly sell. Sinclair is mostly a goldbug, not so interested in silver. So, I give less credit to his silver musings than to his gold insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Nihilist Posted October 22, 2009 Report Share Posted October 22, 2009 A pretty nice summary of the Gold-Silver Ratio posted on Slope of Hope Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) and a Whole Lot of Rambling http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e009...cd2f6970b-popup The GSR is one signpost that can give us a leg up on impending market events. The lower panels on the above chart show what I mean. You will hear all manner of cheering by gold bugs when silver is leading gold, and as the first panel shows, when gold began to out-perform silver, the gold miners (HUI) gave a clear indication that all was not well. To this day, many gold bugs seem to think that the gold stocks will escape the coming carnage when the GSR turns up again. Pardon me if I do not go along with this idea in the short term, although beyond a coming correction, I believe this sector is the place to be for reasons I will explain a bit later in the post. But here is the nugget, if you will: The gold miners need the USD to strengthen and the GSR to turn up in order to establish the next leg up in their positive fundamentals and in order to become distinguished from the general commodity/inflation trade that is positively correlated to the economy. We all remember how well-gamed crude oil was in the summer of '08. This was the final high profile bubble of what was in my opinion, a series of rolling bubbles that made up the commodity (and inflation) mania which led directly to the crash of Q4, 2008. This bubble did not get the memo that the end was near as sincere 'peak oil' believers were about to be hit with the reality of an epic deflationary impulse. Oil was just another play, positively correlated to the economy. The next two panels are industrial metals and the stock market, which are of course, also items of positive economic correlation. They had their bubble tops previously and acted as we might expect leading into the upturn of the GSR and onset of the crash; they diverged negatively. The GSR signals the draining of liquidity as the mass speculative urge begins to fade. It rises with the same dynamics that make the USD rise in a bout of deflation. In other words, it rises with the collective need to get liquid, get safe and get the heck out of the casino. So, any bottoming or bullish activity in the GSR can be looked upon as an early warning system on a USD rise and accompanying decline of nearly all asset markets. But here is what I love about the GSR. While it can give signals to get short certain bloated and hope-fueled markets, the rising GSR also signals that things like oil, industrial metals and even human hopes for prosperity will be declining in terms of gold. I find Prechter's analysis that gold will decline in a deflation therefore so too will the gold mining stocks, to be too simplistic. Gold will probably decline in a deflation, but here are two vital points to be considered beyond the short term: 1) Gold will decline much less than positively correlated items - like silver, like oil, like copper, etc. Gold will decline less than gold mining cost inputs, which means margins at the companies that dig the yellow stuff out of the ground will expand as their product out-performs relative to their costs. The best part is that another epic buying opportunity is likely to present itself even as the miners' fundamental picture improves. Now that's risk/reward I can deal with. I am getting my HUI downside targets prepared, just as was the case in Q4, 2008. 2) I do not believe that a real deflation is going to take hold. Pull up a monthly chart of the 30 year bond and you will see that the 100 month exponential moving average has not been broken. This condition has gone on for decades and it means that inflation expectations have not broken out despite the best hopes of the inflation alarmists. What this actually means is that while deflationists and inflationists duke it out, policy makers are allowed to continue to inflate at will as inflation hysterics inevitably swing back to deflation hysterics. I tried to get this point across recently in this article entitled Yin/Yang, Deflation/Inflation. My main point is that as long as confidence by the majority remains intact, policy makers will continue their macro game of hide the cheese. They need a deflation event right about now, which will likely be used as an inflationary lever yet again. The GSR is one tool to watch constantly going forward because if that is a bullish consolidation of last year's hysterical upside, the ratio will find support - and a higher low - in the noted zone and that will not be good for any markets in the short term. In the intermediate term it will signal that gold mining companies will be one of the few flourishing sectors as the 'real' price of gold continues its rise, as indicated first and by the GSR and gold's ratio to many other assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 22, 2009 Report Share Posted October 22, 2009 Enough is enough! Ted Butler's latest - http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butl...y10-21-09.shtml I think this bit is of interest He must know that the price of silver and gold would have been much higher than what they are now, if it were not for JPMorgan’s concentrated and excessive short-selling. In my estimation, if JPMorgan did not short sell more than 8,000 contracts, or 40 million ounces, silver would have been over $30 an ounce right now. Swines!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 22, 2009 Report Share Posted October 22, 2009 Please visit my thread - I have an update on Silver! http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=135545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted October 22, 2009 Report Share Posted October 22, 2009 Please visit my thread - I have an update on Silver! http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=135545 nice graphs - my thoughts as well on the final silv charts i think we will see some major action soon (hopefully +ve) the daily chart shows a trapped wedge but the weekly shows a breakout and the monthly shows ignition of course anything can happen though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 22, 2009 Report Share Posted October 22, 2009 Nice graphs FWIW and Double Agent. Here's my take on things at the moment. I think gold and silver have been under major attack by the cartel over last couple of weeks, but each time they have knocked it down it has been lapped up by the longs. The smackdowns appear to losing power to me, just providing the longs with cheap metal. The shorts have been looking to cover, but they just aren't getting the specs to capitulate. With November futures expiry due in 3 days, next week is going to be fun what with the massive treasury issuance. I am expecting a lot of action to the upside next week, but then I am always seeing the bullish side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted October 22, 2009 Report Share Posted October 22, 2009 Just found this video at GIM. A brief explanation of the USD and silver carry trades. From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHQR85_dgxY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSilverWeTrust Posted October 22, 2009 Report Share Posted October 22, 2009 Just found this video at GIM. A brief explanation of the USD and silver carry trades. Yes that's Stellaconcepts. I've been subscribed to him for around 6 months now, he's well up on his Silver etc. If you don't like the sponsor rubbish...don't worry he's only had it the last couple of wks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 23, 2009 Report Share Posted October 23, 2009 http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=135800 Silver to $20?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 23, 2009 Report Share Posted October 23, 2009 http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=135800 Silver to $20?? Wouldn't take much to see $20 would it. If we get the last hoorah in the inflation trade, gold could go to $1200 and silver to say $22/23 with the ratio near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 23, 2009 Report Share Posted October 23, 2009 Wouldn't take much to see $20 would it. If we get the last hoorah in the inflation trade, gold could go to $1200 and silver to say $22/23 with the ratio near 50. Every great journey starts with a single step... I'm not making any predictions, that's the title of the article. Can you give the inflation vs deflation lectures a rest? You know my view and I respect yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 26, 2009 Report Share Posted October 26, 2009 Fake Silver Panda 2009 thread: http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=418766 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueNorth Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 How to play the Gold: Silver Ratio Article here from Hard Assets Investor Playing The Gold/Silver Ratio Investors looking to play the continuing collapse have several options available. Some die-hard precious metals aficionados approach the ratio literally, managing physical stores of the two metals based on ratio targets. This is a strategy for those who are fortifying their bunkers, preparing for the end of the financial system as we know it and the subsequent return of the gold standard. Under this strategy, the ultimate goal is simply to increase the number of ounces of gold held, without any real regard for price. For example, let's say the gold/silver ratio is currently at 60, but I think it's going to 30. I can then sell one ounce of gold for 60 ounces of silver, and when the ratio hits 30, I can use my 60 ounces of silver to buy two ounces of gold. Voila! I have doubled my physical gold holdings. Of course, if the ratio goes to 120 instead, my 60 ounces of silver only buy me half as much gold as I'd originally held. In some ways, this style of trading feels a bit like playing the child whose older brother convinced him to trade his quarter for two dimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 Fake Silver Panda 2009 thread: http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=418766 Months ago I bought 1 silver and 1 gold Panda from CID (a dealer I trust). I decided that was all the Chinese I would buy, especially silver. I wouldn't touch any Chinese silver or any silver with a Chinese connection with a barge pole. Why risk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 Months ago I bought 1 silver and 1 gold Panda from CID (a dealer I trust). I decided that was all the Chinese I would buy, especially silver. I wouldn't touch any Chinese silver or any silver with a Chinese connection with a barge pole. Why risk it? to be fair the fakes are pretty easy to spot. That fake looks terrible com[ared to the real one. I have 60 silver pandas and they are one of the nicest coins i have (all real btw). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 Silver down over a dollar in a day. The price is obviously vulnerable here. Clearly, it makes sense to keep some serious powder dry for the bigger dip that might come at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 Silver down over a dollar in a day. The price is obviously vulnerable here. Clearly, it makes sense to keep some serious powder dry for the bigger dip that might come at some point. Record and stuck come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 Record and stuck come to mind. My point was that today's price action is clear evidence for what some have been saying about having a hedge against lower prices. Blinkers comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 Record and stuck come to mind. Yes but it is better than being 'all in' having bought last week! (BTW Prechter says a near top for silver at near 18/oz.)-couldnt resist it. Come on silver me hearty, down a few more dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 Yes but it is better than being 'all in' having bought last week! (BTW Prechter says a near top for silver at near 18/oz.)-couldnt resist it. Come on silver me hearty, down a few more dollars. I bought around 50% of my silver at around $9, that was the time to go 'all in'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 I bought around 50% of my silver at around $9, that was the time to go 'all in'. AGREE. Then. I bought a load at-cripes cant even remember now-but it was cheap, maybe 4 dollars. Now however, would you go all in, if you hadn't a stack at 9 dollars? Some would say 'yes'. I think that would be foolish. So does rh if I read him correctly. EDIT it was 6 dollars, just about. Just checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LauraB Posted October 27, 2009 Report Share Posted October 27, 2009 I do wish you two (rh & pixel) would finally hammer out your differences over a pint or three. Or in the school gym with boxing gloves. With me poised to make my first dive into silver (& with someone else's stash) I really would appreciate a steady helm ............ not that I think anyone anywhere is in charge of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now