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silverusdx.gif

 

Looks like we might have some good buying opps coming up. If the dollar continues to strengthen we could see the DX at 78.5 and silver at 14.50.

 

Even if this strength in the dollar turns out to be a head fake, it still proves how vulnerable silver is to a dollar bounce.

 

For the record, I have both large silver and large cash positions at the moment.

 

I think there will be a lot of resistance around 16$, i would be suprised to see a retest of the 14$ish level where there is very strong support

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I think there will be a lot of resistance around 16$, i would be suprised to see a retest of the 14$ish level where there is very strong support

Yep, will be interesting to see what the dollar does here. I hope to start buying at around the $14ish level [around 1200 in Yen, which effectively makes it a dollar or two cheaper having recently strengthened]. I plan to also keep some cash reserves in case we see the "big one" a la Hoye.

 

Will it be a merry or scary Xmas? :lol:

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Yep, will be interesting to see what the dollar does here. I hope to start buying at around the $14ish level [around 1200 in Yen, which effectively makes it a dollar or two cheaper having recently strengthened]. I plan to also keep some cash reserves in case we see the "big one" a la Hoye.

 

Will it be a merry or scary Xmas? :lol:

 

tbh, i am really struggling to see the $16ish level being breached at the moment. silver broke through multi-month resistance in sept, which acted as support in oct., so will it break back through so quickly?

 

what might appear as volatility at the moment may be more benign

 

we shall see

 

edit - just to say, for the above theory to hold the end of month price is key. hence dipping in and out of the high 15$s wouldn't invalidate the resistance if we were above $16 at the end of the month

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All the hype seems to be about India buying Gold but it's interesting how Silver bounced with it?

 

<_<

 

No, has to be something else - the India news was out first thing this morning in London, price didn't jump til 10am NYC time. Can't work out what it was for the life of me though.

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I've been wondering what it is too, as you note, the timing is strange.

 

Citigroup going south?

 

 

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No, has to be something else - the India news was out first thing this morning in London, price didn't jump til 10am NYC time. Can't work out what it was for the life of me though.

Yep. Hmmm... 

 

 

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Something big is going on at the comex warehouse.

 

Silver withdrawals today were;

 

2,584,384 Oz withdrawn from Dealers Inventory

1,042,628 Oz withdrawn from Customer Inventory

 

Someone needs lot of silver in a hurry, thats over 3.5 million Oz total in one day. There were only 250,000 Oz delivery notices for the whole of October.

 

The next few days are going to be very interesting I think.

Could be something to do with this.. The cartel is very short physical at the moment and there is lots of physical buying happening. Paper selling isn't doing much good.

 

 

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Is it possible for Silver to rise significantly and Gold to remain at present level to achieve 20:1?

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Is it possible for Silver to rise significantly and Gold to remain at present level to achieve 20:1?

I think in the very long run silver will go to 20:1 or even less. However, I don't see it as likely happening in the near future.

 

I keep in mind that silver these days is primarily an industrial metal and only secondarily an investment metal. So silver is potentially subject to industrial demand reduction during this recession in a way that gold is not so much.

 

Having said that, if a physical delivery default occurs on COMEX who knows what the price of silver might do?

 

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I think in the very long run silver will go to 20:1 or even less. However, I don't see it as likely happening in the near future.

 

I keep in mind that silver these days is primarily an industrial metal and only secondarily an investment metal. So silver is potentially subject to industrial demand reduction during this recession in a way that gold is not so much.

 

Having said that, if a physical delivery default occurs on COMEX who knows what the price of silver might do?

The Chinese are actively encouraging their population to now save in gold and silver, so the investment demand is getting a large shot in the arm. I wonder how long before it takes over as the primary demand.

 

3.6 Million removed from Comex in a single day last week, default on the comex looking more likely in the near future.

 

 

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The Chinese are actively encouraging their population to now save in gold and silver, so the investment demand is getting a large shot in the arm. I wonder how long before it takes over as the primary demand.

 

3.6 Million removed from Comex in a single day last week, default on the comex looking more likely in the near future.

Perhaps that is why London is setting up it's own forwards clearing service?

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The Chinese are actively encouraging their population to now save in gold and silver, so the investment demand is getting a large shot in the arm. I wonder how long before it takes over as the primary demand.

 

3.6 Million removed from Comex in a single day last week, default on the comex looking more likely in the near future.

Yes, I had forgotten for a moment about the new retail promotion of silver in China. This lends great support, maybe a Shanghai put (if the Chinese government feels the need to support price in order not to lose face, which I suspect is likely).

 

Just that I try not to get my hopes too high, like imagining that it will got to 20:1 in the near future. I would love it if it did and long-term I think it will.

 

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Very bullish article on Silver, makes me proud to be a silver bull :)

 

Silver set to Soar as it did in the 1970’s

 

By: Mark O’Byrne

 

- Silver Remains Very Undervalued

- Why Silver is in a Bull Market & How High Could it Go?

- Is Silver about returns or a hedge against inflation & systemic risk?

- Silver: Declining Supply

- Silver: Increasing Industrial Demand

- Silver: Increasing Investment Demand

- Silver Undervalued Versus Gold

- A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

- Conclusion

 

 

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tbh, i am really struggling to see the $16ish level being breached at the moment. silver broke through multi-month resistance in sept, which acted as support in oct., so will it break back through so quickly?

 

what might appear as volatility at the moment may be more benign

 

we shall see

 

edit - just to say, for the above theory to hold the end of month price is key. hence dipping in and out of the high 15$s wouldn't invalidate the resistance if we were above $16 at the end of the month

Dip postponed compliments of India. :lol:

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Brown "put" meet Indian "call" ?

Nice chart.

 

I have always half-suspected one more wave up in the inflation trade, one last hoorah, with the ratio closer to 50, before it all turns around.

 

[i prefer Dostoyevsky to Nietzsche myself, just finished "The Gambler". A superb read. I suggest "Notes from the Undergound" be made mandatory reading for all first year economics students.... in order to balance out the nonsense of ceteris paribus/ all things being equal. They might then undertand a little about human behaviour.... or there subject at hand. :lol: ]

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I have always half-suspected one more wave up in the inflation trade, one last hoorah, with the ratio closer to 50, before it all turns around.

50 on the Gold:Silver ratio? Interesting. That would imply another substantial move up in general equities.

 

20091105Gold-SilverVixSpx.gif

 

 

[i prefer Dostoyevsky to Nietzsche myself, just finished "The Gambler". A superb read. I suggest "Notes from the Undergound" be made mandatory reading for all first year economics students.... in order to balance out the nonsense of ceteris paribus/ all things being equal. They might then undertand a little about human behaviour.... or there subject at hand. :lol: ]

And yes, The Gambler is a great read. I do have a soft spot for Nietzsche though. As Freud (in my opinion correctly) observed, "he had more penetrating knowledge of himself than any man who ever lived or was likely to live."

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50 on the Gold:Silver ratio? Interesting. That would imply another substantial move up in general equities.

Yes, and another move down in the dollar... it might just continue to grind lower here [say to 72] leading to equity buying with investors heavily under duress. :lol:

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