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be careful who you listen to

 

 

And be careful of the error of "presentism". :)

 

I expect a big dip in silver sometime soon. I also thought silver could rise a bit in the interim, so recently bought [treating this as a trade]. I'll look to sell this on a possible spike and then rebuy on the dip.

 

Exactly! RH... do you really know what your doing? :blink:

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I haven't used them (yet) and they're presently out of stock of buffalos, but Sarnia Silver in in the Channel Islands will send you one of these for £14.50 including delivery to the UK. Not a bad deal when you'd be hard pressed to get a silver britannia from ebay for less than £20 delivered. They do lots of other coins and bars too.

 

The main disadvantage compared to the silver britannia is that the buffalo potentially has CGT payable upon sale (assuming you've used up your annual CGT limit, etc). All foreign silver coins have this disadvantage, of course.

 

There was a thread that mentioned Sarnia on here recently. Apparently the way they work is by sailing under the £18 VAT threshold per item coming from the Channel Islands. This means that if you order 10 coins, you'll get 10 envelopes.

 

As long as they can profitably send an ounce of silver plus postage for less than £18, they'll have a great business. Depending on who you believe, you may need to hurry ;)

 

cheers

sjiff

 

I gave them a go - all arrived ok.

 

Prices are VAT free so bloody cheap I only bought 10 oz I cannot see this as a way to make substantial silver purchases but like ebay silver spoons it all helps.

 

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Exactly! RH... do you really know what your doing? :blink:

Well, for me it is not as simple as being "all in" or all out. I'm much more interested in complexity than simplicity [think "Art of War", or game of chess] . I have large positions in silver, gold and cash, representing speculations, trades, savings and hedges. These functions can also overlap at times, and positions will change with market circumstances.

 

As for "knowing"... there are no certainties. The prime reason why gold/ silver will eventually outperform everything else is because of uncertainty.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=148270

 

I lightened up on YEN recently to buy silver [recently swapped remaining Yen for US dollars] for various reasons; was starting to loose confidence in Yen [too many political variables], was essentially a currency swap [silver a commodity currency], was comfortable with my cash position, but then was also possibly a short term trade... to take a profit in dollars in order to rebuy silver on the dip. I wouldn't sell all my silver on a spike because I am not 100% certain of a dip, and think silver will go on to higher prices at a later date [but doubt this will happen in a straight line]... which is why I maintain a core position in both gold/ silver of 60%. I guess this disqualifies me as a gold bug as I'm not "all in". But definitely a gold/silver bull.

 

Essentially, I am not hedging so much against gold/silver as against lower prices in gold/silver, and would only go "all in" on a big dip [probably when the bubble in Chinese assets pops].

 

Lets see how 2010 pans out. ;)

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Ah, so one day you will be qualified to be a gold bug.

Well, maybe for a while. But then, I might lose my affiliation when I decide to lighten up on metal and raise cash reserves again on the next spike. Selling bullion for paper might be considered an even worse transgression that not being "all in" in the first place.:lol:

 

 

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Well, maybe for a while. But then, I might lose my affiliation when I decide to lighten up on metal and raise cash reserves again on the next spike. Selling bullion for paper might be considered an even worse transgression that not being "all in" in the first place.:lol:

 

Have you had any success though so far wrt silver, selling on a spike and buying at a lower price?

 

Of course as a concept it's great but have you had practical success with this? As far as i can see you lightened up on silver at around $14 and bought back at a higher price. Now, i know we have had these discussions before, but i feel obliged to again point out to you that the concept and reality are different.

 

For the record, i am not 'all in' and am using lsil as a vehicle to try and gain paper profit to buy physical. I have started a thread on 24k to that effect. But this is an 'experiment' and it may fail miserably.

 

Good luck and please do not think i am criticising you but as i have said, i feel obliged to point out your experience so far.

 

My experience may be the same.

 

Caveat - i have a core pos. and am using a small cash % in comparisson for 'trading'.

 

Do your own research.

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Have you had any success though so far wrt silver, selling on a spike and buying at a lower price?

 

Of course as a concept it's great but have you had practical success with this? As far as i can see you lightened up on silver at around $14 and bought back at a higher price. Now, i know we have had these discussions before, but i feel obliged to again point out to you that the concept and reality are different.

I bought the bulk of my silver at around $12/13 [from memory] ... so that has to count as success so far [though I am a bit hesitant to count nominal gains in US dollars as "success" preferring instead to see profits in accumulated ounces of gold].

 

I did lighten up a little on silver [around 10% of position] around the $14 mark as wanted to raise some US dollars [realised a small profit here] at the time, and then recently rebought silver [6% profit so far] with Yen as I wanted to start getting out of Yen [which was stronger against silver than the dollar].... and also considered it a trade; I expect silver to go higher before falling below $14 this year sometime [i do not consider the bulk of my silver "in profit" simply because it is presently and nominally priced high in US dollars, this can turn around very quickly]. These transactions were pretty small compared to my core position in silver [in hindsight, I shouldn't have bothered mentioning it, henceforth shall only publish the big moves I make in bullion :lol: ].

 

As for selling on a silver spike, I am hoping to do this in the next month or two... if/ when silver goes above $20/21. Ideally, I'd like to swap silver for both gold and dollars [ratio nearing 60 again and would consider jumping at 55]. Gold for savings, and dollars to further speculate in silver if/ when it goes on a big dip.

 

As I am sure you can appreciate, there are so many variables at work in both the market and someone's individual circumstances [and the currencies being used, and the currency considered for profit-taking] that it is not so easy to say selling then and buying then, some peripheral amount, in some particular currency, was not "profitable".

 

This is the thrid time I have explained this to you. Are you stalking me? :lol:

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I bought the bulk of my silver at around $12/13 [from memory] ... so that has to count as success so far [though I am a bit hesitant to count nominal gains in US dollars as "success" preferring instead to see profits in accumulated ounces of gold].

 

I did lighten up a little on silver [around 10% of position] around the $14 mark as wanted to raise some US dollars [realised a small profit here] at the time, and then recently rebought silver [6% profit so far] with Yen as I wanted to start getting out of Yen [which was stronger against silver than the dollar].... and also considered it a trade; I expect silver to go higher before falling below $14 this year sometime [i do not consider the bulk of my silver "in profit" simply because it is presently and nominally priced high in US dollars, this can turn around very quickly] These transactions were pretty small compared to my core position in silver [in hindsight, I shouldn't have bothered mentioning it, henceforth shall only publish the big moves I make in bullion :lol: ].

 

As for selling on a silver spike, I am hoping to do this in the next month or two... if/ when silver goes above $20/21. Ideally, I'd like to swap silver for both gold and dollars [ratio nearing 60 again and would consider jumping at 55]. Gold for savings, and dollars to further speculate in silver if/ when it goes on a big dip.

 

As I am sure you can appreciate, there are so many variables at work in both the market and someone's individual circumstances [and the currencies being used, and the currency considered for profit-taking] that it is not so easy to say selling then and buying then, and a peripheral amount, in some particular currency, was not "profitable".

 

Yes i agree about the affect of variables on the individual decision

 

I guess the 'black art' will be identifying the top of the spike in the short-term, and making a judgement on the %amount of ag to sell at that point. My trading experiment will be all paper based. However, i might sell some of the oddities i have in physical silver at that point as well e.g. 'scrap'

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Yes i agree about the affect of variables on the individual decision

 

I guess the 'black art' will be identifying the top of the spike in the short-term, and making a judgement on the %amount of ag to sell at that point. My trading experiment will be all paper based. However, i might sell some of the oddities i have in physical silver at that point as well e.g. 'scrap'

I would have been happier to see the market fall in the fall [a la Hoye style] and then gone "all in" at bottom prices. It would be much easier to sell on a spike if you were near "all in" [but then, I imagine many that are "all in" will not consider selling any].

 

As for when to sell, I'll keep on eye on the gold/silver ratio. If it gets well into the 50s on a parabolic rise in the metals, I reckon that will be the sign to sell. Even then, I will only sell half my silver position for dollars, the other half for gold, and no selling of gold.

 

I hope to go back heavily into silver, with dollars and some gold, on the fall following the spike. I reckon the concept, or strategy, has to be crystal clear in order not to be swayed by emotions and present day prices.

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Weighton Coin have an offer on 20 x Britannias 2010 at the moment. £360 inc. VAT.

 

http://www.weightoncoin.co.uk/coins/index....roducts_id=1757

 

 

VB

I'm still waiting for mine to arrive.

 

Ordered them over Christmas, but the guy at Weighton sent an email on the Wednesday before New Year saying he'd decided to wait until Monday the 4th to post them, with the excuse of the "pending bank holiday and weekend coming up".

 

He could have dispatched them on the Wed/Thurs before New Years Day, then maybe I'd have had them delivered on the Saturday.

 

So I get a delivery note on Tuesday because I was at work, and then it snowed and I couldn't go and collect them from the Post Office.

Arranged a redelivery for today (Saturday), checked the status on Royal Mail tracking system, which says they are "out for delivery", but nothing turned up today!

 

Have arranged for another redelivery for Tuesday, but I bet they won't arrive if there's more snow by then....

 

It's really annoying not knowing what's happened to my order! :angry:

 

Especially when it could have been dispatched a day or two earlier with a simple trip to the post office.

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I'm still waiting for mine to arrive.

 

Ordered them over Christmas, but the guy at Weighton sent an email on the Wednesday before New Year saying he'd decided to wait until Monday the 4th to post them, with the excuse of the "pending bank holiday and weekend coming up".

 

He could have dispatched them on the Wed/Thurs before New Years Day, then maybe I'd have had them delivered on the Saturday.

 

So I get a delivery note on Tuesday because I was at work, and then it snowed and I couldn't go and collect them from the Post Office.

Arranged a redelivery for today (Saturday), checked the status on Royal Mail tracking system, which says they are "out for delivery", but nothing turned up today!

 

Have arranged for another redelivery for Tuesday, but I bet they won't arrive if there's more snow by then....

 

It's really annoying not knowing what's happened to my order! :angry:

 

Especially when it could have been dispatched a day or two earlier with a simple trip to the post office.

 

I had this with Chard - they were concerned that they would be pilfered from a RM depot when there are few staff around.

 

I got the impression they knew what they were talking about.

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I'm still waiting for mine to arrive.

 

Ordered them over Christmas, but the guy at Weighton sent an email on the Wednesday before New Year saying he'd decided to wait until Monday the 4th to post them, with the excuse of the "pending bank holiday and weekend coming up".

 

He could have dispatched them on the Wed/Thurs before New Years Day, then maybe I'd have had them delivered on the Saturday.

 

So I get a delivery note on Tuesday because I was at work, and then it snowed and I couldn't go and collect them from the Post Office.

Arranged a redelivery for today (Saturday), checked the status on Royal Mail tracking system, which says they are "out for delivery", but nothing turned up today!

 

Have arranged for another redelivery for Tuesday, but I bet they won't arrive if there's more snow by then....

 

It's really annoying not knowing what's happened to my order! :angry:

 

Especially when it could have been dispatched a day or two earlier with a simple trip to the post office.

 

I ordered mine on the 30th. I had to e-mail them and ask for a different delivery address as I was back at work the 4th. They mentioned that they would be despatched on Monday 4th, which they did. It was still Thursday before they arrived though.

 

Like you say, it does play on your mind slightly until they arrive.

 

I am sure all will be fine.

 

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I ordered mine on the 30th. I had to e-mail them and ask for a different delivery address as I was back at work the 4th. They mentioned that they would be despatched on Monday 4th, which they did. It was still Thursday before they arrived though.

 

Like you say, it does play on your mind slightly until they arrive.

 

I am sure all will be fine.

Went and collected them from the Post Office this morning... didn't like not knowing when they'd be delivered, or taking the risk they'd be sent back to the originator.

 

Didn't like driving in these conditions though! :(

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Do you know a link for a gbp/eur silver history chart?

Why stray away if you have the good old Approximity charts?

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Silver_GBP_LOG.html

Silver_GBP_LOG.png

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Silver_EUR.html

Silver_EUR.png

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Silver_GBP.html

Silver_GBP.png

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Do you know a link for a gbp/eur silver history chart?

This has gold and silver in EUR (and USD):

http://www.24hgold.com/english/gold_silver...aspx?money=Euro

 

For longer term charts, below the charts click "Interactive Silver Chart" which will open a new window with a silver chart and some controls to change the time span and moving averages.

 

Use the flags near the top of the page to change currencies. So UK flag gives you GBP.

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