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Out at 17.90.

 

I think that you came out too early there RH, personally I would have waited until silver broke through the green trend line at least if I was confident that silver was going to drop. It is still cheap when compared to and is being pushed upwards by gold which is producing a big bull flag.

 

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gold03032010.jpg

 

 

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And into...dollars? Or gold ?

Dollars. Only trading silver against dollars [while continuing to buy and hold gold].

 

From an earlier post:

 

 

All that's shiny is not gold, and exited my silver trade at 17.90. I find it an easy trade to make - psychologically speaking - as am also bullish on the dollar, for the next couple of years anyway. And silver I think will remain super volatile against the dollar. Also making this trade easier, is that I can consider it a hedge [dollar proxy] against the rather large buy and hold approach I have towards gold.

 

If I get this speculative trade wrong and silver does break out to the next level, the chances are that it will still remain volatile and likely dip at some point to where I exited, thus enabling me to get back on board. I think this is quite unlikely though, and think silver will remain in the range seen this year. Being both a gold and dollar bull gives you quite a different perspective on silver. ... though I'm also long term bullish silver.

 

Though the profit on trading unleveraged silver/dollar may not be huge, it is still significant when you consider it doesn't involve buying a risky asset or losing your "liquidity preference".

 

Yet to buy VXX, but am now thinking of buying with less at a later and lower price if it comes.

 

sillong.gif

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Out at 17.90.

 

RH - thank you for posting. I follow your views quite closely and with interest, although not necessarily with agreement ;)

 

What this site lacks is people who will publicly take a punt and stand by it. Plenty of "after the event" postings, but very few like yours, where we can all talk about whether it went right or wrong, and the reasons behind it.

 

Thank you.

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RH - thank you for posting. I follow your views quite closely and with interest, although not necessarily with agreement ;)

 

What this site lacks is people who will publicly take a punt and stand by it. Plenty of "after the event" postings, but very few like yours, where we can all talk about whether it went right or wrong, and the reasons behind it.

 

Thank you.

God forbid we should all agree. :lol:

 

Thanks you for the generous words.

 

Had dinner with colleagues today. 2 years ago they were rubbishing my views.... now they're listening more closely.... due no doubt to the corroboration of current events. I think I should have them lining up to buy at the local bullion bank in a week or two. :lol:

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God forbid we should all agree. :lol:

 

Thanks you for the generous words.

 

Had dinner with colleagues today. 2 years ago they were rubbishing my views.... now they're listening more closely.... due no doubt to the corroboration of current events. I think I should have them lining up to buy at the local bullion bank in a week or two. :lol:

 

I'm banned by my wife from trying to educate people. Apparently I've got a reputation for ruining dinner parties.

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sildol.gif

 

Will be very interesting to see what the dollar does here. Silver declines on dollar strength... but also bounces back sharply on any dollar weakness.

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I think that you came out too early there RH, personally I would have waited until silver broke through the green trend line at least if I was confident that silver was going to drop. It is still cheap when compared to and is being pushed upwards by gold which is producing a big bull flag.

 

svg.jpg

If i'd waited that long it would have eaten up half my profits.... and then there would have been no point in trading. I want to exit on a spike when I think silver may decline. I'm happy to take risks with silver [this year] that I wouldn't with gold because:

 

- I think the dollar will remain relatively strong for a while which will restrain silver from breaking out in the short/ medium term.

- if silver does break out, it will likely stay volatile, and then most probably dip back down to where I sold at the peak, where I can buy again.

- I wear my dollar bull hat when trading the silver account... and consider it a hedge against a rather large gold holding.

- Seeing deflation in the driving seat for the moment, I think this has more an impact on silver, being considered more a commodity, than gold. Gold as an alternative currency is in quite a different position to silver.

-my silver/ dollar account is not that large, only around 10% of my pot, though will consider increasing if I get a few trades right.

-I'm continuing to buy gold over the year [which I don't trade].

 

Are you trading a little?

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Would you think it wise just now??? (zoom to 2m30s)

 

If you've not been stacking physical silver all this time...you must be out of your mind IMO!

 

RH...could you extend that Silver v dollar chart over a longer timeframe?

 

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No. I bought back in to silver last month sensing political/market/government tensions are rising exponentially. IMO precious metals trading from here is akin to gambling and I'm certainly in silver until the end now.

 

I am confident we won't see a deflationary\deleveraging bust until we've seen an inflationary firestorm and that the metals bull market remains very much intact. I suspect political/market/government forces will offset seasonal trading and IMHO, the next 12-18 months are going justify our beliefs in precious metals.

 

Would you think it wise just now??? (zoom to 2m30s)

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No. I bought back in to silver last month sensing political/market/government tensions are rising exponentially. IMO precious metals trading from here is akin to gambling and I'm certainly in silver until the end now.

I prefer the word speculating, and also draw a distinction between gold and silver. I think most would recognise that silver is more speculative than gold.

 

I am confident we won't see a deflationary\deleveraging bust until we've seen an inflationary firestorm and that the metals bull market remains very much intact. I suspect political/market/government forces will offset seasonal trading and IMHO, the next 12-18 months are going justify our beliefs in precious metals.

Silver has shown it doesn't need a full on deleveraging bust to decline. And is therefore more easily traded. Gold on the other hand might or might not decline on a deleveraging bust, which is why it could be a good idea to trade a little silver... to hedge for that possibility.

 

I also have a few kilo bars of silver back home should silver become as valuable as gold one day. ;)

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We all know silver will outperform gold in terms of percentage and if you're out of the silver market, you're running the risk of getting caught on the wrong side of a short squeeze. I honestly think it's too late to speculate, as you're risking your profits when silver takes off, it hardly seems worth it at this stage of the game.

 

I prefer the word speculating. Also draw a distinction between gold and silver. I think most would recognise that silver is more speculative than gold.

 

 

Silver has shown it doesn't need a full on deleveraging bust to decline. And is therefore more easily traded. Gold on the other hand might or might not decline on a deleveraging bust, which is why it could be a good idea to trade a little silver... to hedge for that possibility.

 

I also have a few kilo bars of silver back home should silver become as valuable as gold one day. ;)

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We all know silver will outperform gold in terms of percentage and if you're out of the silver market, you're running the risk of getting caught on the wrong side of a short squeeze. I honestly think it's too late to speculate, as you're risking your profits when silver takes off, it hardly seems worth it at this stage of the game.

Ah, but consider that silver is itself a speculation, that it is considered a leverage on gold. In contrast to this, I think gold is in a league of its own now, and the risk you mention in regard to silver I hold in regard to gold, which I would not sell for that reason. Am I out-bugging the gold bugs here? :)

 

How you trade and invest depends on your own psychology, which in turn depends on the logic you buy into. So what may be right for one, may not be right for the other.

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We've been here before! :) I think silver is acting independent of gold at the moment and has been remarkably resilient even when gold has been hit hard.

 

Fair enough, for me at least the game's changed, time is short and I'm not prepared to risk being out of the game for a small percentage, when the end-game profit will be multiples of the original investment, the risk hardly seems worth it now.

 

Ah, but consider that silver is itself a speculation, that it is considered a leverage on gold. In contrast to this, I think gold is in a league of its own now, and the risk you mention in regard to silver I hold in regard to gold, which I would not sell for that reason. Am I out-bugging the gold bugs here? :)

 

How you trade and invest depends on your own psychology, which in turn depends on the logic you buy into. So what may be right for one, may not be right for the other.

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silplat.gif

 

 

Edited.

That drop in February (to 14.96 I think it was) is exactly what Andrew McGuire was talking about would happen re manipulation for the CFTC.

To me silver still looks lovely and cheap to what it should/could be. Are you sure you want to be selling, not buying? One hell of a joker.

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That drop in February (to 14.96 I think it was) is exactly what Andrew McGuire was talking about would happen re manipulation for the CFTC.

To me silver still looks lovely and cheap to what it should/could be. Are you sure you want to be selling, not buying? One hell of a joker.

Not sure at all. :lol:

 

Hang on a sec. If I'm buying a major position in gold because of uncertainty...... and then trading a minor position in silver.... to hedge that hedge... then, in that context, I have quite a "certain" attitude towards silver.... and can afford to be wrong :P

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Not sure at all. :lol:

 

Hang on a sec. If I'm buying a major position in gold because of uncertainty...... and then trading a minor position in silver.... to hedge that hedge... then, in that context, I have quite a "certain" attitude towards silver.... and can afford to be wrong :P

 

Theres no love song finer

But how strange the change

From major to minor

Every time we say...

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Not sure at all. :lol:

 

Hang on a sec. If I'm buying a major position in gold because of uncertainty...... and then trading a minor position in silver.... to hedge that hedge... then, in that context, I have quite a "certain" attitude towards silver.... and can afford to be wrong :P

Sorry, I thought you said you were selling silver to buy dollars, not gold.

My 'one hell of a joker' was a comment on your sig re silver. Just to clarify. :)

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Excluding the Hunt Brothers cornering the silver market in January 1980 and pushing it up to $54/t oz (£23.24/t oz @ 0.4303) we have hit a 30 year high in GBP today @ £11.90/t oz. :D

 

We have a similar pattern in the EUR with AUD, CAD, CHF and USD close behind, silver's looking very strong IMO.

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Excluding the Hunt Brothers cornering the silver market in January 1980 and pushing it up to $54/t oz (£23.24/t oz @ 0.4303) we have hit a 30 year high in GBP today @ £11.90/t oz. :D

 

We have a similar pattern in the EUR with AUD, CAD, CHF and USD close behind, silver's looking very strong IMO.

Here's the plot of Silver in GBP over the last 10 yrs... :D

 

silverGBPrecord.jpg

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Nice looking chart!

 

Assuming we're right about gold going to $5,000/t oz (£3,272/t oz) with a historical G:S ratio of 16:1, that would put silver at $313/t oz (£204/t oz) which means we're less than 6% of the way there.

 

What scares me is what the world will look like if we get there!

 

Here's the plot of Silver in GBP over the last 10 yrs... :D

 

silverGBPrecord.jpg

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What scares me is what the world will look like if we get there!

 

pd92-pres.gif

 

Palladium went from $400 all the way up to almost $1100 in a space of year without the world falling apart.

 

Are you trying to say there is more than meets the eye with silver?

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I was just trying to think what state the economy will be in for these figures to come true. I think in order for these sort of prices, the COMEX would have to default and the cash settlement option/scam would need to be blown clean out of the water. A X20 increase in my mind infers there's been a collapse somewhere.

 

You might be right, it's a small market and there are a lot of people in the world, perhaps it doesn't need to be that bad for silver to go 2damoon.

 

Palladium went from $400 all the way up to almost $1100 in a space of year without the world falling apart.

 

Are you trying to say there is more than meets the eye with silver?

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