SILVER

[Bobsta]

It was down to $12.24 just now, but has recovered five cents.

It was over $13.10 earlier in the day... I had a limit order trip to sell some futures at $13.17... then bought back at $12.80. Feeling like a t1t now!!

 

The movement's insane. Gold is having a very mild day in comparison!

[kernull]

and the volume of the selloff is huge, this is enough for silver to be under 12.50 for quiet a while. If it goes to 12.45 on asia next week, i will short it. Next support should be 10.80 i guess.

[Bobsta]

and the volume of the selloff is huge, this is enough for silver to be under 12.50 for quiet a while. If it goes to 12.45 on asia next week, i will short it. Next support should be 10.80 i guess.

OK, let me ask some dumb questions..

1) The volume is huge - could that not mean this is one single seller? e.g. hedge fund liquidating?

2) If a large volume was sold short, surely it needs to be bought back at some point - no?

[G0ldfinger]

and the volume of the selloff is huge, this is enough for silver to be under 12.50 for quiet a while. If it goes to 12.45 on asia next week, i will short it. Next support should be 10.80 i guess.

I am going to buy physical out of your cold hands.

[frizzers]

According to Hoye and I think he is right, silver will outperform during an inflationary credit expansion , but it will be one of the worst performing assets during a deflationary credit contraction. We are in a credit contraction now.

[BillyPilgrim]

I am going to buy physical out of your cold hands.

Nice posturing, but do you really believe it? You were bullish at $16, and the OP was predicting a surge upwards at $18.

[G0ldfinger]

Nice posturing, but do you really believe it? You were bullish at $16, and the OP was predicting a surge upwards at $18.

Yes. I will buy more. I could not buy this week for technical reasons, so it will be next week.

 

The price of silver was north of $40 in 1980. Silver is a depleting resource. And the Fed is printing $19bn a day.

 

It's a no-brainer.

[kernull]

OK, let me ask some dumb questions..

1) The volume is huge - could that not mean this is one single seller? e.g. hedge fund liquidating?

well, I think whatever who it would be, it filled the demand for those silver orders that were below 12.50. and as silver prices are moving in channels, we had previous channel established in range of 12.50 - 14.00 (for the last 2 weeks), once channel is broken, the next step is to retest the support of previous channel which is 12.50. When 12.50 reached market would feel unsure and would need to retest the low of 12.00

I pick the 10.80 as a bottom line for the chanel because on a weekly 10.80 has 2 confirmations, 11.50 only one. We might however get a pretty good bounce from 11.50, if we reach it at 16 sep (this is the FED interest rate statement, may be a point for dollar retracement)

2) If a large volume was sold short, surely it needs to be bought back at some point - no?

 

yeah! good point. for example in december contract, the open interest increased, with the price going down:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C8

this means -> a lot of shorts

if they cover, we will have pretty good rally back

[kernull]

I am going to buy physical out of your cold hands.

 

me too, just waiting for this low

[wednesday2]

According to Hoye and I think he is right, silver will outperform during an inflationary credit expansion , but it will be one of the worst performing assets during a deflationary credit contraction. We are in a credit contraction now.

 

Aren't we going to be in a credit contraction for years?

 

[ziknik]

OK, let me ask some dumb questions..

1) The volume is huge - could that not mean this is one single seller? e.g. hedge fund liquidating?

…

 

The latest bank to fail was called ‘Silver State Bank’

 

Do you think it really had Silver and was forced to sell?

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=57240

 

[wrongmove]

Aren't we going to be in a credit contraction for years?

 

The concencus opinion seems to be at least another year or two.

 

 

[cazlane]

The latest bank to fail was called ‘Silver State Bank’

 

Do you think it really had Silver and was forced to sell?

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=57240

 

Goodness knows but I doubt it-think the current hits are more to do with the paper trades although as I previously stated I do believe we are now in a severely deflationary environment which will hammer everything.

 

The concencus opinion seems to be at least another year or two.

 

Indeed, I would not be a bit surprised to see silver at around 2004 levels by the end of the year ($6ish).

[G0ldfinger]

...

Indeed, I would not be a bit surprised to see silver at around 2004 levels by the end of the year ($6ish).

Can't quite see that. But I will be very interested to see how your silver short is doing by then.

[cazlane]

Can't quite see that. But I will be very interested to see how your silver short is doing by then.

 

Tell me, when you bought at $15 or whatever it was did you at all envisage it pulling back to the level it's at now? Didn't think so BTW I don't 'short' anything-spreadbetting is a mugs game pet

[Errol]

Tell me, when you bought at $15 or whatever it was did you at all envisage it pulling back to the level it's at now?

 

Yes, actually. Just as I envisaged gold pulling back a long way as well. Silver going back to $6 would be very good indeed. A perfect opportunity to purchase more.

 

I operate in terms of decades and generations only. I buy gold now and would buy it at $100. Price is virtually irrelevant.

[Bobsta]

Hold on folks... have things really changed so much in just two months?!!

 

It looks like it's ready to explode upwards

Agreed.

MA's are lined up perfect.

got to give you a bit of thanks here Cuthbert, your moneyweek newsletter a couple of weeks ago showing how silver was bouncing off of $16.50 persuaded me to get in around $16.80. up a nice little bit in my SB account.

 

... and now just 66 days later:

 

According to Hoye and I think he is right, silver will outperform during an inflationary credit expansion , but it will be one of the worst performing assets during a deflationary credit contraction. We are in a credit contraction now.

Aren't we going to be in a credit contraction for years?

The concencus opinion seems to be at least another year or two.

 

Indeed, I would not be a bit surprised to see silver at around 2004 levels by the end of the year ($6ish).

Yes, actually. Just as I envisaged gold pulling back a long way as well. Silver going back to $6 would be very good indeed. A perfect opportunity to purchase more.

I operate in terms of decades and generations only. I buy gold now and would buy it at $100. Price is virtually irrelevant.

 

Now, I'm old enough and stupid enough to be responsible for my own decisions. But there appears to be complete 180 degree turn going on by some folks here.

 

Saying something's a good investment at $17, and it falling to $13 isn't necessarily a problem if we believe the fundamentals are still in place and the fall is just a "minor setback".

 

If the view is that the fundamentals have changed and it is more likely to be heading lower than higher in the medium term (the next 12 months) then that really is a monumental shift IMHO.

 

A number of posters were converting gold to silver feeling silver was likely to move up quicker than gold.

 

However, in the recent CWR interviews there was mention of "Gold is money - but Silver is just an industrial metal" ... which would certainly not be positive for silver.

 

I just get the impression that there's a lot of confusion and head-scratching going on out there. Talk is cheap folks - and I think this needs to be acknowledged when posting. Saying "Wahey, I loaded up at $20, bought more at $16 and want it to go to $6" makes no sense whatsoever to me.

 

Please note: this isn't a personal attack on any specific posters - I think it's something many of us are guilty of at times. I think there needs to be some acknowledgment that some significant money is on the table for a lot of folks here and real money is being lost! The fact that the pounds I'm losing are worth less than they were 2 months ago doesn't actually cheer me up that much.

 

 

 

 

[frizzers]

Difference between trades and long-term investment

[G0ldfinger]

I can only comment on what I am personally doing and saying.

 

(1) IIRC, I didn't buy $20 silver. I bought some on the way down. And I am still buying. Since I buy gold and silver as if it was a savings scheme, I purchase smaller amounts every month.

 

(2) My personal investment horizon is (i) 2-3 years if things unravel fast, or (ii) 5-10 years if it takes longer. At the moment I am not sure what will happen. It looks very fast indeed, but investors delusion (as in the housing market) is absolutely amazing. It might take many years until J6P and dumber investors figure out what is going on, only, of course, to get screwed all over again at the end of the bull market. I am prepared to hold my metals for a decade.

 

(3) 1974-1976 gold dropped 50%, and keep in mind that silver usually does worse than gold (on the way down). This was in the midst of the greatest precious metals bull market in history. Hence, should anyone panic if gold drops 22% and silver some 40%? I don't think so. Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride. ("Click-it or ticket" ).

 

EDIT: One brief comment on Cuthbert. As far as I can see he still thinks we're in a bull market for gold. Only recently his expectations for the short term have become more deflationary than before. Note, expectations for the short term, not the longer term. But he might want to write on that himself.

[Errol]

Now, I'm old enough and stupid enough to be responsible for my own decisions. But there appears to be complete 180 degree turn going on by some folks here.

 

Saying something's a good investment at $17, and it falling to $13 isn't necessarily a problem if we believe the fundamentals are still in place and the fall is just a "minor setback".

 

If the view is that the fundamentals have changed and it is more likely to be heading lower than higher in the medium term (the next 12 months) then that really is a monumental shift IMHO.

 

A number of posters were converting gold to silver feeling silver was likely to move up quicker than gold.

 

However, in the recent CWR interviews there was mention of "Gold is money - but Silver is just an industrial metal" ... which would certainly not be positive for silver.

 

I just get the impression that there's a lot of confusion and head-scratching going on out there. Talk is cheap folks - and I think this needs to be acknowledged when posting. Saying "Wahey, I loaded up at $20, bought more at $16 and want it to go to $6" makes no sense whatsoever to me.

 

Please note: this isn't a personal attack on any specific posters - I think it's something many of us are guilty of at times. I think there needs to be some acknowledgment that some significant money is on the table for a lot of folks here and real money is being lost! The fact that the pounds I'm losing are worth less than they were 2 months ago doesn't actually cheer me up that much.

 

 

Don't apply any of this to me. Since 2000 I've been buying gold/silver. I continue to buy. But remember, unlike lots of others on this board I'm not buying as an investment. I'm buying as a store of value with a 30yr+ time scale. It can drop to any price it chooses right now and I won't bat an eyelid.

 

The lower the better for gold and silver. It simply means you can exchange fiat for more metal.

 

[Bobsta]

Difference between trades and long-term investment

Sorry, I don't really understand that point.

 

Are you saying that on 1st July you viewed Silver as a good short-term long trade, but as an investment over the next two years you don't?

 

Or are you saying that with a long-term view, buying on 1st July wasn't such a bad idea, as in the long term you expect it to go higher? If so, I don't quite understand why if you fully expect it to continue falling in the medium term (6 months? 12 months?) you could take this position. Surely it's better to jump out now and back in later?

 

I have a slight problem with the differentiation between trades and investment when it comes to PMs (which provide no yield). If I invest in something and I then take a view that it's not likely to perform well, I'll sell it. Does that make that "trading" rather than "investment"?

 

I appreciate that no-one can accurately call tops and bottoms and am certainly not looking for this board to be a free tipster service... But as I said before, I sense in this case that people aren't saying "Don't worry, this is just a minor pull-back before a move upwards" - there is some very real talk of silver performing pooly (as an investment and a trade) for the forseeable future.

 

And once again, I'd point out that I would *never* lambast anyone for stating an opinion that proves to be incorrect. I'm simply trying to understand whether folks' views have changed or not.

 

In short, I need to help work out in my mind whether to sell all my Silver and look to re-buy in 1/2/3/6/9/12 months.. Or whether to view the current situation as a buying opportunity. Right now there seems to be a massive divergence in views - far greater than I've seen previously.

 

 

 

 

 

[Errol]

Clearly there needs to be a distinction between traders, investors and people who buy regardless of price.

 

I would maintain that gold and silver markets are not the place for traders unless you really know what you are doing. Investors should enter the gold/silver markets for the long haul (5-10yrs minimum). Those who buy regardless of price (me) do so to store value. Gold is not an investment to this group.

 

Perhaps there should be different threads/forums for the different groups?

[Mr Pipples]

EDIT - Bobsta beat me to a trader/investor stuff question. In fact ditto what he's said in his last few posts - that's where I'm at too.

[G0ldfinger]

...

In short, I need to help work out in my mind whether to sell all my Silver and look to re-buy in 1/2/3/6/9/12 months.. Or whether to view the current situation as a buying opportunity. Right now there seems to be a massive divergence in views - far greater than I've seen previously.

Do you need someone to tell you what to do, or do you need to do fundamental research on your own?

 

My research (and I do a lot of it) makes it much easier for me to make decisions. For instance I think that all that retail price deflation talk is utter bu11cr@p, and that oil will soon reverse its trend because of supply problems. The PM market is manipulated unlike any other market in the world. And manipulation never works out for long. Why can't I find any silver coins below $17-$18?? It's a joke.

[nicejim]

Why can't I find any silver coins below $17-$18?? It's a joke.

Below £10? I check Ebay from time to time and make a watchlist of silver/gold coins to see what they go for. The cheapest Britannia or Maple in my last list was this one for £15.79 (including postage):

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie...em=250288180983

 

If you click on sellers' feedback you can see what else they've sold lately and at what price. This seller sold another Maple for £18.98 (with postage) on Friday. I've not kept records but I think this is roughly what coins were going for when silver was closer to £9.50/ounce. Royal Mint hasn't changed its price on Britannias since at least February I think, and at £16.95 delivered I would think this should be a lid on the price, especially considering the increased risk at Ebay. It doesn't seem to work that way though. People either don't know about it, can't be bothered waiting or don't want the government to know what they're doing ;-)

 

A quote from the ebay auction page above: "Have you tried to get one of these from a dealer recently?? Sold out ??? Not a surprise!!!!!! 1 oz of .9999 solid silver. Every investor knows that in tough times Silver is the right choice to protect your wealth. $100 dollar silver is predicted."

So why sell then?