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Many learned folks (but not too many!) seem to be gunning for $20:

 

radomski_october192010_1.gif

 

Przemyslaw Radomski:

 

This week’s long-term chart for silver shows that the recent daily price increase has been accompanied by huge volume (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.) Note that in the past, when a spike was seen in daily trading volume above the 20M level, a price decline followed shortly thereafter in five of the six examples seen since the beginning of 2009. Such a volume level has been seen in recent days (marked with red and black arrows) and for this reason, a sharp decline in the coming days will not be very surprising and is, in fact, expected.

 

 

 

Based on past trends for similar length rallies, there is a good chance we will see a sharp decline in silver’s price very soon given volume this big. A likely target level for this decline will be in the $20 to $21 range for the SLV ETF, slightly higher than we have stated last week.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1287494534.php

Another, Katz, says $20-21:

 

If we look at the bigger picture in silver, we see another ascending triangle (or almost ascending triangle). Look at the power of the breakout above the March 2008 peak of $21. Two points occur to the experienced chartist. One, silver is about to make a powerful move to the upside. And two, for the short term and in the minds of those people who believe in a fair price silver has gone up too far, too fast. Silver has spent most of the past 2½ years in a small range just under $21. To most traders, $21 silver is the high side of the fair price. If you ask one of these people just what is the fair price for silver, he would say, “Well, I don’t know exactly, but it is certainly not $26. $20 or $21 is more fair.

 

 

 

So if we see silver hit its price objective line and then give a few short term sell signals, this will tell us to expect a short term decline. The larger chart tells us that we have gone too far, too fast and that a pull back to the top line of the triangle is in order. In other words, the last sellers will be those who believe the fallacy of the fair price and think that the fair price is about $20-$21. When these people have done their selling, the way will be clear for the next bull phase.

 

 

 

An interesting situation is developing and can be seen by comparing the 1 year charts of both gold and silver. Normally the two precious metals move together, but starting in late August there is a significant disparity. In its entire bull move since the Abelson low in late July, gold is up about 15%. But despite starting a month later silver is up 35%. This is, particularly in the minds of the short term traders who believe in the fallacy of the fair price, too far and too fast. Silver is too far above its fair price.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1287408217.php

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"Silver found on Moon" reason for sharp falls in price.....

 

Moon's water is useful resource, says Nasa

By Jonathan Amos

Science correspondent, BBC News

 

An image of debris ejected from Cabeus Crater and into the sunlight, about 20 seconds after the LCROSS impact. The inset shows a close-up with the direction of the Sun and the Earth

There are oases of water-rich soil that could sustain astronauts on the Moon, according to Nasa.

 

Continue reading the main story

Start Quote

 

In about a tonne of material... you're talking 11-12 gallons of water that you could extract”

 

Dr Anthony Colaprete

LCROSS project scientist and principal investigator

Scientists studied the full results of an experiment that smashed a rocket and a probe into a lunar crater last year.

 

The impacts kicked up large amounts of rock and dust, revealing a suite of fascinating chemical compounds and far more water than anyone had imagined.

 

A Nasa-led team tells Science magazine that about 155kg of water vapour and water-ice were blown out of the crater.

 

The researchers' analysis suggests some areas of lunar regolith, or soil, must contain as much as 5% by weight of water-ice.

 

"That's a significant amount of water," said Anthony Colaprete, from the US space agency's Ames research centre.

 

"And it's in the form of water-ice grains. That's good news because water-ice is very much a friendly resource to work with. You don't have to warm it very much; you just have to bring it up to room temperature to pull it out of the dirt real easy.

 

"Just as a point of reference - in about a tonne of material, at about 5%, you're talking 11-12 gallons of water that you could extract."

 

 

The LCROSS spacecraft followed closely behind the spent rocket stage

The Nasa-led team has published six papers in the American journal describing the findings of the 9 October, 2009, impacts of the LCROSS spacecraft and its companion rocket stage.

 

The pair was targeted at the Moon's southern pole - at Cabeus Crater, a depression so deep and dark that the odds of disturbing ice were thought to be very good.

 

The rocket stage went in first, followed a few minutes later by the LCROSS probe which gathered imagery and other data just before it too slammed into the surface.

 

Another spacecraft, Nasa's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), was passing close by. It also was able to study the plume of material ejected into sunlight more than 15km above the rim of Cabeus.

 

The suite of instruments deployed on that day has determined as much as 20% of this dust plume was made up of volatile compounds, including methane, ammonia, hydrogen gas, carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide.

 

In addition, the instruments saw relatively large amounts of light metals, such as sodium, and mercury. There was even a signature of silver, although in tiny amounts

:P
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Rick Rule - Physical Supply Shortages in Silver

 

We are seeing huge inflows into physical silver, and that may create a shortfall of available physical silver.

 

So no shortfall yet according to Rick but we are getting close. And yet big Tommy O recently stated that we were swimming in a vast ocean of over supply of silver. What gives?

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Sarnia Silver is now selling 1/2 ounce coins which gets round the VAT problem of £18 being VAT free from Guernsey. They are priced at about £14 which is "expensive" in my view considering there is no VAT. I thought he would have to do that otherwise his buisness has no legs once the silver price exceeded £18 for a coin.

 

http://sarniasilver.com/index.html

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Silver money for Americans

 

Hugo Salinas Price

 

I think that my readers will agree that there is a desperate need for some fresh thinking about money in the U.S.

 

Many respected analysts worry that the expected action by the Fed to apply a new bout of QE after the coming elections is fraught with danger.

 

Fiat money in the US is in an advanced stage of decomposition and when money rots, the whole social, economic and political structure of the nation rots with it. A return to sound money is urgent. More and more people are aware of the perilous road ahead if nothing is done....

 

More interesting articles regarding PMs as money at http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articles.asp

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Sarnia Silver is now selling 1/2 ounce coins which gets round the VAT problem of £18 being VAT free from Guernsey. They are priced at about £14 which is "expensive" in my view considering there is no VAT. I thought he would have to do that otherwise his buisness has no legs once the silver price exceeded £18 for a coin.

 

http://sarniasilver.com/index.html

 

Looks like Sarnia have really lost the plot on pricing. £14 for those halves is a joke. Also CID have reached their VAT limit for France - had been getting a lot sent there. So having to resort to ebay only now. Some good deals on world silver to be had if you bid on enough stuff. Picked up a couple of Brits today for £21 each also which I guess constitutes a bit of a bargain these days.

 

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Looks like Sarnia have really lost the plot on pricing. £14 for those halves is a joke. Also CID have reached their VAT limit for France - had been getting a lot sent there. So having to resort to ebay only now. Some good deals on world silver to be had if you bid on enough stuff. Picked up a couple of Brits today for £21 each also which I guess constitutes a bit of a bargain these days.

 

when you get them delivered to france, do you then bring them to the uk as hand luggage? if so, don't you have to declare them?

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At least Bart isn't blinkered to the manipulation in the silver market.

 

CFTC's Chilton Sees 'Fraudulent Efforts' to Control Silver Prices

 

By SARAH N. LYNCH

 

WASHINGTON—A federal futures regulator said Tuesday he believes there have been numerous attempts to fraudulently influence silver-market prices, and he urged the agency to prosecute those who may have violated commodities laws.

 

Bart Chilton, a commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, made his comments Tuesday at the start of a public meeting where the agency proposed new rules to strengthen its antifraud and antimanipulation powers.

 

For years, silver investors have repeatedly urged the CFTC to investigate possible silver-market manipulation by short-sellers placing downward pressure on prices. The agency's market-oversight division conducted two studies in 2004 and 2008 and found no evidence of manipulation. But after complaints continued, the agency's enforcement division made an unusual announcement in September 2008 that it had launched its own probe into the matter.

 

Since that investigation began, the CFTC has been mum on its findings. Mr. Chilton said Tuesday he believes "the public deserves answers to their concerns" about market manipulation and broke the agency's silence with a stunning observation.

 

"I believe there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets," he said. "There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price."...

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Looks like Sarnia have really lost the plot on pricing. £14 for those halves is a joke. Also CID have reached their VAT limit for France - had been getting a lot sent there. So having to resort to ebay only now. Some good deals on world silver to be had if you bid on enough stuff. Picked up a couple of Brits today for £21 each also which I guess constitutes a bit of a bargain these days.

 

Hi Sprinkles,

 

I was wondering whether you have ever sold any PM's on Ebay, I understand the various fees amount to approx 8 - 10% of selling price. I am thinking about selling a couple of silver eagles just to see how it pans out.

 

I know it's premature, but I am investigating whether Ebay could be used as realistic exit strategy.

 

JL

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when you get them delivered to france, do you then bring them to the uk as hand luggage? if so, don't you have to declare them?

 

Yeah. Brought them back as hand luggage. Always declare them French side which has never been a problem. One time the guy was a coin collector himself!!! Never declared or been stopped UK side but pretty sure it's OK as it's always been small amounts of currency - maples, phillies, ASE's etc.

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Hi Sprinkles,

 

I was wondering whether you have ever sold any PM's on Ebay, I understand the various fees amount to approx 8 - 10% of selling price. I am thinking about selling a couple of silver eagles just to see how it pans out.

 

I know it's premature, but I am investigating whether Ebay could be used as realistic exit strategy.

 

JL

 

Hi. A little bit now and again. Think the fees reduce if you're selling a high value of stuff. I anticipate holding this metal for many years to come though. Seen Eagles going for circa £24 lately which is nuts considering what they were just a few short months ago!

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I won a 1-ounce silver round yesterday for £17 inc p&p

 

I tend to go for unusual searches, and relying on buyers / sellers not always knowing what they've got. This one I found by searching for 'Troy'

 

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/USA-Modern-Replica-S...=item3f04038dde

 

I've also started looking at old (Victorian and older) crowns now that I can't use Sarnia and CI silver bullion.

 

 

 

I have sold my PHAG having made nearly 20% profit since July when I bought it. Hoping for a dip towards the end of the year so I can buy it back.

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I won a 1-ounce silver round yesterday for £17 inc p&p

 

I tend to go for unusual searches, and relying on buyers / sellers not always knowing what they've got. This one I found by searching for 'Troy'

 

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/USA-Modern-Replica-S...=item3f04038dde

 

I've also started looking at old (Victorian and older) crowns now that I can't use Sarnia and CI silver bullion.

 

 

 

I have sold my PHAG having made nearly 20% profit since July when I bought it. Hoping for a dip towards the end of the year so I can buy it back.

 

Are you sure its made from silver, the replica coin?

 

Crowns tend to be overpriced. I have been buying 50% half crowns for a bargain price recently from some guy I know of. I will be back to buying pre 1947 again on ebay soon and pre 1920 if the price is right.

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Trader Dan on Bart Chilton tonight on jsmineset.com. Are you listening and watching DrBubb?

 

The silver market was abuzz with news today about CFTC Commissioner, Bart Chilton, concerns over price manipulation. The fact that he has come out so publicly took many, outside the camp of GATA and others, by surprise and lit a fire under that market which took it up into a resistance area near $24 on the charts. Strength in silver then worked to pull up gold which had been under pressure from the falling Euro and the subsequent bounce towards 78 in the Dollar.

 

You have to wonder about the many who have insulted GATA and its fine work over the years and ridiculed them in such a derogatory fashion whether they will now have the common decency to apologize for their shameless and contemptuous treatment of my friends Bill Murphy and Chris Powell and all the other dedicated members of the GATA board. The fact that Commissioner Chilton has come out so forcefully and chosen to use the words, “fraudulent” and “devious” in regards to the silver market is remarkable for its clarity and frankness. He was careful not to come to a conclusion about actual manipulation but as he pointed out, attempted manipulation is an entirely different matter. Based on his own words, it is evident that he strongly believes that attempted manipulation has been occurring regularly.

 

From here on, those who refer to GATA and its supporters as “the tin foil hat” crowd are only making fools out of themselves and revealing themselves to be mere hacks of the bullion bank crowd. GATA can no longer be dismissed as some sort of rogue band of disgruntled “gold bugs” but as the fine group of people that they are; people who share a genuine concern for the integrity of our financial markets and whose tireless research and efforts on the part of the precious metals markets deserves to be given the respect that is due to any organization which has produced work of the nature and quality that GATA has. I am not holding my breath however; very few are able to conquer their own pride and remain slaves to it all their lives. It takes a man of real character to admit he was wrong. Generally speaking, the most vocal opponents of GATA seem lacking in this department.

 

Hats off also to Commissioner Chilton for having the integrity to follow through on this even in the face of what no doubt must have been some very strong opposition. It is refreshing to see a man who actually takes what he does seriously and is working in the interests of the general public and not just a few favored special interests. If you have not done so, please take the time to send him an email encouraging him and thanking him for his efforts. So often men in his position only get emails or letters haranguing them.

 

 

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JPMorgan, HSBC sued for alleged silver conspiracy

 

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co and HSBC Holdings Plc were hit with two lawsuits on Wednesday by investors who accused them of conspiring to drive down silver prices, and reaping an estimated hundreds of millions of dollars of illegal profits.

 

The banks, among the world's largest, were accused of manipulating the market for COMEX silver futures and options contracts from the first half of 2008 by amassing huge short positions in silver futures contracts that are designed to profit when prices fall.

 

"Defendants reaped hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions of dollars in profits" from the conspiracy, one of the complaints said.

 

The respective plaintiffs, Brian Beatty and Peter Laskaris, each said they traded COMEX silver futures and options and contracts, and lost money because of the alleged manipulation...

 

 

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At least Bart isn't blinkered to the manipulation in the silver market.

 

CFTC's Chilton Sees 'Fraudulent Efforts' to Control Silver Prices

 

By SARAH N. LYNCH

 

Very GEI no comment on this massive story!

 

Got Silver?

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Probably because those that believe in Silver just buy (EDIT: and HOLD!) whatever comes out, the rumours have gone on for so long it's almost like old news.

I don't think this is old news, the big story is that JP Morgan & HSBC are both being sued currently and also that Bart Chilton at the CFTC is explaining something needs to be done finally.

 

IMO we will be seeing "price discovery" on silver very soon. JPM have been increasing their shorts to control the market for years, they are not going to be able to operate in the same way, especially as they are being investigated.

 

 

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