Jump to content

SILVER


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

In 2006 silver went from around $15 at the peak down to $10 wiping out all the gains during the peaking period.

 

In 2008 silver went from $21 down to $8, although this is not a fair comparative figure as this was a panic which is very infrequently seen.

 

we have seen silver peaking every 2 years during this bull. you make me sound like a day trader! why don't you start trading a little and start maximising your returns?!!!

 

:P

Fair play learner. I was trying to get myself into selling mode today but just couldn't do it (juniors too). Something was stopping me despite seeing the 1.5x 200DMA signal clear as day. I think your 'practicing' for the final top is in some ways quite a neat strategy; but I think you will have to look deeper to understand whether for the real 'end game' you would want to sell at all... If there is a genuine collapse in fiat then surely having sold prior to the real moon shot and a collapse of your chosen paper currency would render your years of foresight, and holding tight, worthless if indeed a hyper inflation were to take hold. Just thoughts really, but I suppose if selling is a realistic objective, which I think you are right it has to be, you need to be nimble at flipping over into another hard asset (houses perhaps?) to ensure your hard work does not go to waste.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, perhaps the silver squeeze will reveal to more people that 'The Fed' is actually a jointly run Ponzi scheme with the shareholders being banks on Wall Street.

I'd rather that then a collapse of system which is what the people at zero-hedge are calling for.

feel free to bail the system out with your own money then. :)

I think this is a straw man:)

 

it isn't. the system is insolvent. if you don't want to collapse then feel free to bail it out.

 

I do admire the current system though. I'd like to make the claim that without fractional reserve banking there would be no space program.

 

:rolleyes: if the space program couldn't be paid for without defrauding people, then people didn't actually want the space program!

 

Crashing JP Morgan does most people no good.

 

shaking-off a parasite does the host a world of good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fair play learner. I was trying to get myself into selling mode today but just couldn't do it (juniors too). Something was stopping me despite seeing the 1.5x 200DMA signal clear as day. I think your 'practicing' for the final top is in some ways quite a neat strategy; but I think you will have to look deeper to understand whether for the real 'end game' you would want to sell at all... If there is a genuine collapse in fiat then surely having sold prior to the real moon shot and a collapse of your chosen paper currency would render your years of foresight, and holding tight, worthless if indeed a hyper inflation were to take hold. Just thoughts really, but I suppose if selling is a realistic objective, which I think you are right it has to be, you need to be nimble at flipping over into another hard asset (houses perhaps?) to ensure your hard work does not go to waste.

 

ps. another reason for considering lightening up was the too damn bullishness of everywhere I look at the moment, in silver and gold The Guardian's now permanent Gold section sandwiched as it is between Savings and Mortgages http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...investing/gold/ , along with all the ramping from Back, Sachs and Cracks etc just gives me the heeby geebees !! Still a really healthy correction now would be great as far as I'm concerned, as I may not have lightened the load with existing holdings but I'm sure I will learn from '08 and look for any opportunity to utilise spare cash if bargain season comes presents itself again. So much of this is about fighting the fear and greed bedfellows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ps. another reason for considering lightening up was the too damn bullishness of everywhere I look at the moment, in silver and gold The Guardian's now permanent Gold section sandwiched as it is between Savings and Mortgages http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...investing/gold/ , along with all the ramping from Back, Sachs and Cracks etc just gives me the heeby geebees !! Still a really healthy correction now would be great as far as I'm concerned, as I may not have lightened the load with existing holdings but I'm sure I will learn from '08 and look for any opportunity to utilise spare cash if bargain season comes presents itself again. So much of this is about fighting the fear and greed bedfellows.

 

I also saw goldmans raising their estimates for the spx and the fed selling off its stake in citi (if thats not a top signal what is?), plus rumblings from china about rate hiking.

 

I think we have 2 weeks of a pull back and then the party will resume. 600billion of qe2, talk of QE3 and JPMorgan short position won't go away.

 

For me this was an interim point to take profits. I intend to buy back in around $27, but probably only half (in money terms) of what i sold today. Gold needs to be peaking in tandem with silver for me to believe this is the seasonal top.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I sold half my silver bullion and miners today at $30.05 as I think we have seen an interim top. This was 1.49 x 200dma realising 100% gain since Aug 09.

 

In 2008 silver peaked at 1.47 x 200dma and gold at 1.3 x 200dma.

 

In 2006 silver peaked at 1.7 x 200 dma with gold at 1.38.

 

All other seasonal high corrections have been with gold peaking, but at the moment gold is nowhere near over bought at 1.16 x 200dma. Therefore it is very possible that this pullback (if that is what we get) will only last a couple of weeks and we will then get another peak into january.

 

I am therefore now expecting a 10% trim and will buy back in modestly at $27 (in case the pull back turns in to a full on correction).

 

If silver continues to rocket with the 200dma moving up I will continue to sell my position with a further 25% at 1.6 and the whole lot at 1.7 x 200dma.

 

If it goes to the moon then I will have still done very nicely and won't complain.

 

I will then buy in heavily next summer when it is likely to drop back down around 1.0 x 200dma lows.

 

My only concern with my approach is that it seems too easy, I can't believe everyone is not doing this. From experience, when I feel like this normally about things (ie like a smug g*t) in life that is when I usually fall flat on my face on something that is usually right under my nose. Is this approach too simplistic? what might go wrong?? <_<

You're better at timing the trade than me. :lol: Perhaps a pure focus on the technicals is best here.

 

The big gains I've made is by sitting on a large core position for years. I'm better at investing [divesting?] than trading. I don't mind my poor trading skill so much... as I also consider US dollars [oddly for most] a hedge, and will look for another op to trade against the volatility of silver.

 

I assume you trade into dollars, and keep a large core position in gold/ silver?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're better at timing the trade than me. :lol: Perhaps a pure focus on the technicals is best here.

For those interested in Prechters thoughts, he put out a bulletin advising speculators to think about selling at 30.11 ''Bulls in numerous markets are as cocky as they get''. I am putting this here for interest sake. Silver would look like she is heading for a correction. Even David Morgan would go with that. There is more, obviously, but I don't want to infinge strict copyright rules.

I see any drop as a potential buying opportunity, but traders like Learner might want to chase profits, I understand that.

I hope Prechter is right and like GF would look forward to getting more silver for less money. This strategy would have been costly over the last 10 years so I just buy on the dips and keep smiling. Let us not forget that Prechters long (very long?) term hope is as he stated on Frisby's Bulls and Bears ''if everything goes right for us, we'll be looking to move from cash to gold'' (presume he means silver too). Still a good interview that which needs plenty of interrogation. Of course short term it looks terrible but Prechter's long term vision is quite apocalyptic. Romans ''out at 17.90'' would even be considered a good move. Long days journey into night and all that... What is extraordinary is that he (Prechter) says he never saw the fifth wave extension which brings us to now, presumably. What else, if anything, has he missed? It's a terrible miss to have missed this years move in metals, nevermind the last 8! What was Elliot wave doing? Napping? He must be turning in his grave. This will have been exceedingly uncomfortable for Prechter. But will he be proved right in the end? We'll just have to wait and see.

Well done Learner! The markets have taken a bit of a dip. These seem to last shorter and shorter meaning there are those ready on standby to take up the slack quickly.

 

Good luck everyone!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those interested in Prechters thoughts, he put out a bulletin advising speculators to think about selling at 30.11 ''Bulls in numerous markets are as cocky as they get''. I am putting this here for interest sake. Silver would look like she is heading for a correction. Even David Morgan would go with that. There is more, obviously, but I don't want to infinge strict copyright rules.

I see any drop as a potential buying opportunity, but traders like Learner might want to chase profits, I understand that.I hope Prechter is right and like GF would look forward to getting more silver for less money. This strategy would have been costly over the last 10 years so I just buy on the dips and keep smiling. Let us not forget that Prechters long (very long?) term hope is as he stated on Frisby's Bulls and Bears ''if everything goes right for us, we'll be looking to move from cash to gold'' (presume he means silver too). Still a good interview that which needs plenty of interrogation. Of course short term it looks terrible but Prechter's long term vision is quite apocalyptic. Romans ''out at 17.90'' would even be considered a good move. Long days journey into night and all that... What is extraordinary is that he (Prechter) says he never saw the fifth wave extension which brings us to now, presumably. What else, if anything, has he missed? It's a terrible miss to have missed this years move in metals, nevermind the last 8! What was Elliot wave doing? Napping? He must be turning in his grave. This will have been exceedingly uncomfortable for Prechter. But will he be proved right in the end? We'll just have to wait and see.

Well done Learner! The markets have taken a bit of a dip. These seem to last shorter and shorter meaning there are those ready on standby to take up the slack quickly.

 

Good luck everyone!

Keep in mind that ther's also a "third way" here; maintain your core position in gold/ silver, and over and above this trade the volatility between silver and the US dollar. Why bother? Because you will be able to increase the value of your dollar "hedge" to match the increasing value of your core bullion position.

 

This makes sense for two reasons:

 

1] You think the dollar is the second or third best form of liquidity [as in Exter's triangle].

 

2] You entertain the possibility of being completely deluded [or the market being completely and utterly manipulated]... and then the dollar position is a pure and outright hedge.

 

PS "out at 17.90" only relates to my smaller trading/ hedging position. Sound-bites.... devoid of context... and all that. :lol:

That said, still looking for sub 17.90. It would take some structural crisis I reckon... something coming out of Europe next year perhaps... like Germany leaving the Euro. Going heavily into the double leveraged silver ETF [AGQ] could serve nicely to rebalance my cash "portfolio" as silver maybe then went to 50 over the next couple of years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Keep in mind that ther's also a "third way" here; maintain your core position in gold/ silver, and over and above this trade the volatility between silver and the US dollar. Why bother? Because you will be able to increase the value of your dollar "hedge" to match the increasing value of your core bullion position.

 

This makes sense for two reasons:

 

1] You think the dollar is the second or third best form of liquidity [as in Exter's triangle].

 

2] You entertain the possibility of being completely deluded [or the market being completely and utterly manipulated]... and then the dollar position is a pure and outright hedge.

 

PS "out at 17.90" only relates to my smaller trading/ hedging position. Sound-bites.... devoid of context... and all that. :lol:

That said, still looking for sub 17.90. It would take some structural crisis I reckon... something coming out of Europe next year perhaps.

But rh...

 

I am just a poor boy

Though my story's seldom told

I have squandered my resistance

For a pocket full of (sovereigns) such are promises

All lies and jests

Still a man hears what he wants to hear

And disregards the rest

 

 

I have gold and silver and dollars/yen/pounds. Just not enough. :lol: I wish you no harm in re-calling the 1790 figure. It just sticks in my throat. If Prechter is right silver will go to the low single figures over time. Seems crazy now and a bitter pill to swallow. But who knows? If he is right on deflation-and I believe he is-he may be right on metal prices-where I think he is wrong, preferring the Gordon safe haven strategy.

One does need Zen like concentration to hold one's nerve. Prechter will be the Buddha if he is right. Eventually. I try to hedge my future by physical, cash, rice, flour, heating fuel etc etc...I also have no time or temprement to trade well, perhaps. Maybe I should practice a bit...

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Updated. We're now even below the first target circle (London AM Fixings). I guess we can expect a bounce now, and then continuation down to 35:1? :)

 

Looking rough out there today.

 

Much volatility in both gold and silver, 10s n 30s playing up.

 

Much as Jim Sinclair always predicted- it could be a white knuckle ride to the other side.

 

Nick

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's have a reminder of how far we have advanced in a month....18 days was a bit optimistic.

We very almost made it if it wasn't for the last minute margin hikes by the CME, no one could of accounted for that. Maximum respect to JT.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Updated. We're now even below the first target circle (London AM Fixings). I guess we can expect a bounce now, and then continuation down to 35:1? :)

This recent article is of interest on the GSR;

 

JP Morgan vs. Silver: Go Gold

 

Stephan Bogner | Published 12/7/2010

 

The year 2010 seems over already: Gold had a “remarkable” rise of some 30% since the beginning of this new decade. Silver even had a “sensational” year rising some 70%, which equals to silver outperforming gold 2.3-fold: so far, so good.

 

Accordingly, the gold/silver ratio experienced a “crash-like” performance in 2010 that can be explained with a thrust to the downside out of the (dark blue) triangle that formed between 2008-2010 – which is actually supposed to be a thrust to the upside out of the (light blue) triangle that was built between the beginning of this century & 2008. However, it will be considered as a thrust to the downside (out of the light blue) triangle, as soon as the thrust to the downside (out of the dark blue triangle) is trading beneath the triangle-apex of the (light blue) triangle at approximately 46. Hence, gold is expected to perform better than silver now until this potential event occurs – as the price-level of the apex represents strong hold.

 

On December 2, Max Keiser stated at the Guardian.co.uk in his readworthy article “Want JP Morgan to crash? Buy silver” that this investment bank currently (?) owns and holds silver short-positions equaling to some 3.3 billion ounces ore some $1.5 trillion in liability – if in need of cover.

 

The following longer-term perspective since 1980 shows that the gold/silver ratio predominately moves within the (green) upward-trend-channel and that since reaching the upper (green) trend-channel at approximately 90 in 2008, a correction has taken place. Currently having arrived at the lower (green-dashed) trend-channel at 47, suggests a rebound will start now. Only if this last support is being breached, another/confirming sell-signal for gold (against silver) is generated (i.e. silver is to be favored relative to gold). Hence, as the ratio has arrived at this (green-dashed) support, a buy-signal for gold (against silver) has just been issued (i.e. gold is expected to perform better than silver from now on)...

 

12-6-10-makrocheck%204.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This channel implies that the ratio is trending higher. Many of us believe, for fundamental reasons, that the ratio is trending lower.

The chart is from just before the low in 1980, so the green uptrend was from then. The red channels I think are more relevant now from the 100:1 peak in 1991. So I agree the ratio should be trending lower.

 

It looks to me that we could be on for below 30 in this swing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look, this is not really about silver except very tenuously. But I really had to tell you all about it.....

 

I lost an item (of silver in the post recently) but I may of had it. My postman signs stuff for me to save me the hassel of going down the post office to get it later. Im 99% sure I did not get it, but I buy quite a bit so I may have over looked it....

 

Anyway, while I was out taking the kids to school, the post man came in our house and knocked on the bathroom door while my wife was in the shower. "special delivery" Do you think think this was 1st class service or a bit creepy??? :unsure:

 

Ive got my eye on him.......Its one thing trying it on with the wife but stealing my silver.....!!!!?????? :unsure:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look, this is not really about silver except very tenuously. But I really had to tell you all about it.....

 

I lost an item (of silver in the post recently) but I may of had it. My postman signs stuff for me to save me the hassel of going down the post office to get it later. Im 99% sure I did not get it, but I buy quite a bit so I may have over looked it....

 

Anyway, while I was out taking the kids to school, the post man came in our house and knocked on the bathroom door while my wife was in the shower. "special delivery" Do you think think this was 1st class service or a bit creepy??? :unsure:

Does the postman always knock twice?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look, this is not really about silver except very tenuously. But I really had to tell you all about it.....

 

I lost an item (of silver in the post recently) but I may of had it. My postman signs stuff for me to save me the hassel of going down the post office to get it later. Im 99% sure I did not get it, but I buy quite a bit so I may have over looked it....

 

Anyway, while I was out taking the kids to school, the post man came in our house and knocked on the bathroom door while my wife was in the shower. "special delivery" Do you think think this was 1st class service or a bit creepy??? :unsure:

 

If you have so much silver that you cannot keep track of it all, I would like to apply for the position of Azazel's administrator!

 

How come the postman knocked on the bathroom door - did he let himself into the house? Not just creepy but a clear and present danger to wife and silver.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you have so much silver that you cannot keep track of it all, I would like to apply for the position of Azazel's administrator!

 

How come the postman knocked on the bathroom door - did he let himself into the house? Not just creepy but a clear and present danger to wife and silver.

Yeah, he rang the bell and my wife thought "thats the postman, he will post it through the letter box". The next thing, he opened the front door, gone down the hall and knocked on the bathroom door. WTF????

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do you think think this was 1st class service or a bit creepy?

 

A bit creepy? I'd say very creepy.

 

Next time you see him, tell him, in no uncertain terms, to do one. Oh and always lock the door when you go out. In fact, lock the door when you are in.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...