Jump to content

Recommended Posts

However, the log chart shows a different story (open to interpretation). I did think that silver had peaked here but now i am not so sure given the log chart and looking at silvers current bull vs. palladium - i think pd has further to run here:

 

pd10yr.gif

Here's palladium on the log. The log shows that it's retraced most of what it lost since '01, which perhaps puts a different light on it?....:

 

 

spot.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Silver currently at an incredible 41% above the 200DMA. Normally would expect sharp correction BUT

 

1) Latest COT reports indicate commercials are reducing short position on every significant pullback. Still

51000 contracts net short.

 

2) Most important, gold is NOT overbought sitting at 10% only above 200DMA. As we know, silver normally

follows gold.

 

3) Winter months are strong season for PM.

 

4) Gold/silver ratio still declining currently 47.1

 

I am not selling yet any of my trading position.

 

I do not believe charts are so useful in predicting tops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's palladium on the log. The log shows that it's retraced most of what it lost since '01, which perhaps puts a different light on it?....:

 

 

spot.gif

 

I am looking for a move to 850ish here which would still be shy of the 01 high.

 

Besides, i am drawing resistance from a diff. set of peaks. wrt silver, i will buy a short hedge (with tight stops) should the price fall below the recent 3 month trend support. So i am happy to wait and watch the market for price signals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that trying to use to TA and charts to predict a top in silver currently is kind of pointless. The are to many unknowable factors at play that could move the price higher massively. Anyone of these could break a trend;

 

1 - CFTC position limits in metals which were signed into law for January 2011.

 

2 - JPM admitting they need to be reducing their short position.

 

3 - The Asian buyers.

 

4 - The Crash JPM buy silver campaign.

 

5 - The fact that margins keep being raised.

 

Silver has been majorly suppressed for years, do you really want to really want to be on the sidelines waiting to catch a minor move and miss the major move when it happens. Much better to just build a position and keep adding to it rather than attempting to trade.

 

I am a silver bull and have been for years, we are currently reaching a time when things will become more apparent.

 

(RH keep on dreaming about being able to buy at $17.90 and ride to $50).

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think that trying to use to TA and charts to predict a top in silver currently is kind of pointless. The are to many unknowable factors at play that could move the price higher massively. Anyone of these could break a trend;

Trend Analysis is a useful tool over and above the fundamentals. Even though there is always going to be some interpretation in looking at charts, they help you see things from another more objective perspective.

 

As far as fundamentals go, they can be argued either way. One person focused on their fundamentals might only see silver as going up [if it doesn't, due to manipulation], another focused on a different fundamentals might see instead the likelihood of silver being volatile, with the risk of it going down [in the near term]... before its moonward trajectory at a later date.

 

Looking at charts with their real prices and trends in the real world is crucial; besides offering some objectivity, they will eventually either corroborate or falsify one's particular fundamentals.

 

 

So perhaps an obvious question is has the recent move up in silver falsified my "fundamentals" on silver? And the answer is no.... because my fundamentals [long term] was never an issue on this trade. My fundamental view on silver is very bullish though I do think it will be volatile.

 

Selling a small amount at 17.90 was a trade. Not a great one, I'll grant that, but [i reckon] there will be other chances. When I sold this trading position, I fully recognized at the time that silver could quite possibly break upwards. What made the trade easy to make, was the idea that silver could easily retrace again:

 

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=161244

All that's shiny is not gold, and exited my silver trade at 17.90. I find it an easy trade to make - psychologically speaking - as am also bullish on the dollar, for the next couple of years anyway. And silver I think will remain super volatile against the dollar. Also making this trade easier, is that I can consider it a hedge [dollar proxy] against my rather large buy and hold approach to gold.

 

If I get this speculative trade wrong and silver does break out to the next level, the chances are that it will still remain volatile and likely dip at some point to where I exited, thus enabling me to get back on board. I think this is quite unlikely though, and think silver will remain in the range seen this year. Being both a gold and dollar bull gives you quite a different perspective on silver. ... though I'm also long term bullish silver.

 

Let's keep the conversation open. I'd add that the main trading error I made was using a linear chart at the time. :o

 

 

silllong.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
silllong.gif

Your chart has the line drawn incorrectly, if using a monthly chart you need to either use closing prices or the high points. Yours is making what you want to see by using the high point then the closing.

 

This one is more accurate I think;

 

longtermsilver.jpg

 

or this one;

 

silver-13.jpg

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hamilton produces some more good research.

 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/hamilton/dec172010.html

 

Here, he shows that Ag has now caught up with Au's performance and that this, typically, leads to 1 year+ of consolidation/correction. This may be a strong indication that there is no rush to add to positions and that we may have 1 year or so to accumulate before the next major push higher.

 

Of course, events may unfold differently this time. FWIW, I still wouldn't bet against Sinclair's $1650 Au and what that means for Ag.

 

(Sorry, present computer won't let me direct link charts.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are some 1920 dated British coins .925 silver? I have noticed that some 1920 coins have the greenish appearance of pre 1946 coins due to the copper content but some 1920 coins have the grey colour consistant with the higher silver content.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't imagine that for one second... We are after all staving off a sovereign debt collapse across the world. Using the last 30 years as a reference for impending future events, is fraught with danger if you ask me. Just watch Spain and California, this is not going to end in a linear event.

 

Hamilton produces some more good research.

 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/hamilton/dec172010.html

 

Here, he shows that Ag has now caught up with Au's performance and that this, typically, leads to 1 year+ of consolidation/correction. This may be a strong indication that there is no rush to add to positions and that we may have 1 year or so to accumulate before the next major push higher.

 

Of course, events may unfold differently this time. FWIW, I still wouldn't bet against Sinclair's $1650 Au and what that means for Ag.

 

(Sorry, present computer won't let me direct link charts.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Are some 1920 dated British coins .925 silver? I have noticed that some 1920 coins have the greenish appearance of pre 1946 coins due to the copper content but some 1920 coins have the grey colour consistant with the higher silver content.

 

Yeah. Some 3ds and 6ds issued in 1920 are sterling. No way to tell them apart for sure though. All shillings and higher from 1920 are .500.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah. Some 3ds and 6ds issued in 1920 are sterling. No way to tell them apart for sure though. All shillings and higher from 1920 are .500.

 

Thanks, I thought so. Im going to sift through my pile of 3ds and 6ds and see if I can spot the .925

 

Does anyone else have any experience with this? Warpig, you buy old coins dont you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, my daughter and I went through my pile of approx 1000 x pre 1947 3ds and picked out the 1920 ones. We then did a tinkle testby dropping them one at a time and listen to the sound they make. The 925 ones make a more brilliant tinkle. Compare other .925 3ds with othe .500 3ds and they have a different sound. They also look different, more grey, not so green.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ugly as a barrel of monkeys' wotsits - but an ounce is an ounce.

 

I might buy one as it might be the only one sold (seeing as you lot wont be buying one)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't think I will buy any of this "artwork".

 

article-1340821-0C8E9728000005DC-689_468x468.jpg

 

Very poor likeness IMO

 

It's a shame more effort has not been made with this, the Queens head on recent British coins is beautiful and she is an old lady.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't think I will buy any of this "artwork".

 

article-1340821-0C8E9728000005DC-689_468x468.jpg

 

 

Why are we the tax payers paying for the wedding of these benefit scroungers? Parents are on benefits living in a tax payer paid accommodation, no council tax, no utility bills, hand outs for supporting kids..... :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×