notanewmember Posted February 11, 2011 Report Share Posted February 11, 2011 Who is this Mrs Silverqueen?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LauraB Posted February 11, 2011 Report Share Posted February 11, 2011 Don't know why but I find my eyes wandering away from the eagles to something else ... Quite understandable Dom. You need a little intimate warmth after Norway. May I suggest you match the in/out temperatures; & add a little shade. Like this If only those stunning fjords were more equatorial.....sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted February 11, 2011 Report Share Posted February 11, 2011 Not like Turk to make short term predictions like that. He will lose some credibility if nothng comes of it next month. Turk called the original move to $30 almost perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted February 12, 2011 Report Share Posted February 12, 2011 Not like Turk to make short term predictions like that. He will lose some credibility if nothng comes of it next month. The only prediction I can find in the blog post is that he is saying to look for a short squeeze as we move to the silver delivery on the March contract. That has been much talked about already the March contract is traditionally the biggest delivery month of the year. After making up to 30% greater than spot on the december contracts the hedge funds are gearing up to sting JPM for non delivery again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nixy Posted February 14, 2011 Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 http://www.coinweek.com/bullion-report/sil...-ready-to-soar/ esp However, there is an interesting side note to this development. JPMorgan Chase is a major custodian for gold exchange traded funds. Therefore, it should know whether the ETFs really possess all the gold it supposedly owns to cover 100% of its outstanding shares. Well, JPMorgan Chase specifically will not accept gold ETF shares as collateral against loans made by the bank. Does someone at the bank know something they are not telling the public? ?? oops should be in the gold thread ...... nothing like that be happening with Ag, could it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted February 14, 2011 Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 http://www.coinweek.com/bullion-report/sil...-ready-to-soar/ esp ?? The fact that GLD consistently trades at a discount to the gold price/10 tells me the market is pricing in the risk that not all the gold is actually there or has only one claim on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosco Posted February 14, 2011 Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 One thing Ive noticed is that option volatility for PM's have been sold heavily since the start of the year. 1 month Gold was 24%, now 20% 1 month Silver was 39%, now 31% 1 month Palladium was 44%, now 32% Also OTM skew moved more to Puts than b4 Similar story for long dates as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted February 14, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 One thing Ive noticed is that option volatility for PM's have been sold heavily since the start of the year. 1 month Gold was 24%, now 20% 1 month Silver was 39%, now 31% 1 month Palladium was 44%, now 32% Also OTM skew moved more to Puts than b4 Similar story for long dates as well What do you read into that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosco Posted February 14, 2011 Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 What do you read into that? With the ATM vols lower that obviously indicates an expectation of lower price dispersion than from start of year. With the OTM options it is more interesting. Generally for the majority of the recent PM moves higher the OTM Calls have traded at a much hgher vol that the OTM puts (indicating bullish speculative activity). We are now seeing short date OTM Puts trading higher than equiv OTM Calls in both Gold & Silver which indicates demand for Put protection. I understand this is speculator hedging in gold and producers hedging in silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 14, 2011 Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 Gold:Silver now below 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 15, 2011 Report Share Posted February 15, 2011 Right on track: Strong upturn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emel Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 Gold:Silver now below 45. Interesting stuff. For about the last 18 months, I've been buying silver through Goldmoney with a view to switch this to gold when the G:S ratio is more favourable. In some ways, I see this as "banking" my gains in silver. However, I'm not sure I can hold out to a G:S 35 as possibly suggested by GF's graph, I just don't see it spiking that low. I'm going to keep a very close eye on this and will begin banking at 43. I'll be happy if it reaches 40, but will begin buying gold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 Interesting stuff. For about the last 18 months, I've been buying silver through Goldmoney with a view to switch this to gold when the G:S ratio is more favourable. In some ways, I see this as "banking" my gains in silver. However, I'm not sure I can hold out to a G:S 35 as possibly suggested by GF's graph, I just don't see it spiking that low. I'm going to keep a very close eye on this and will begin banking at 43. I'll be happy if it reaches 40, but will begin buying gold again. Just to put expectations of a lower ratio in a more historic context: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emel Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 Just to put expectations of a lower ratio in a more historic context: Ah! Many thanks, this longer-term view certainly suggests that below 40 and much, much further is perfectly possible. I'm keeping an open mind on this and looking forward to seeing how it plays out. Just happy to have built up sizable holdings (for me) in PMs over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lyb Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 Silver leads gold this winter. New 30 year high? at 31.32$ at this moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 Silver leads gold this K winter. New 30 year high? at 31.32$ at this moment Just to put expectations of a lower ratio in a more historic context: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 G:S = 43.65, is the squeeze on? Is the JPMorgue starting to get out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawth Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 I sold half my silver bullion and miners today at $30.05 as I think we have seen an interim top. This was 1.49 x 200dma realising 100% gain since Aug 09. In 2008 silver peaked at 1.47 x 200dma and gold at 1.3 x 200dma. In 2006 silver peaked at 1.7 x 200 dma with gold at 1.38. All other seasonal high corrections have been with gold peaking, but at the moment gold is nowhere near over bought at 1.16 x 200dma. Therefore it is very possible that this pullback (if that is what we get) will only last a couple of weeks and we will then get another peak into january. I am therefore now expecting a 10% trim and will buy back in modestly at $27 (in case the pull back turns in to a full on correction). If silver continues to rocket with the 200dma moving up I will continue to sell my position with a further 25% at 1.6 and the whole lot at 1.7 x 200dma. If it goes to the moon then I will have still done very nicely and won't complain. I will then buy in heavily next summer when it is likely to drop back down around 1.0 x 200dma lows. My only concern with my approach is that it seems too easy, I can't believe everyone is not doing this. From experience, when I feel like this normally about things (ie like a smug g*t) in life that is when I usually fall flat on my face on something that is usually right under my nose. Is this approach too simplistic? what might go wrong?? Well it looks like I didn't nail the peak! - Dam it! The question is where to now? I still have half my silver bullion and bought in heavily in to gold near the recent low. The silver chart looks like it is developing up like the 2006 peak where there was an initial spike up which then temporarily broke down at around 1.5 200dma and then flared up to 1.7 x 200dma. If we get a repeat, this wll take silver to around $40. This is likely to happen at break neck speed and then correct down just as fast. If we get to 1.7 x 200dma, I will sell another 50% of my silver stash to leave me with 25% of my original base. If silver goes to the moon I will have still done very nicely and it will correct down to 200dma levels again, probably in the summer, although I accept that could be at a higher price than I am selling at. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njpurser Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well it looks like I didn't nail the peak! - Dam it! The question is where to now? I still have half my silver bullion and bought in heavily in to gold near the recent low. The silver chart looks like it is developing up like the 2006 peak where there was an initial spike up which then temporarily broke down at around 1.5 200dma and then flared up to 1.7 x 200dma. If we get a repeat, this wll take silver to around $40. This is likely to happen at break neck speed and then correct down just as fast. If we get to 1.7 x 200dma, I will sell another 50% of my silver stash to leave me with 25% of my original base. If silver goes to the moon I will have still done very nicely and it will correct down to 200dma levels again, probably in the summer, although I accept that could be at a higher price than I am selling at. Bring it on! Scale change on Kitco spot silver. Vertical earlier......ahhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 G:S = 43.65, is the squeeze on? Is the JPMorgue starting to get out? James Turk - Short Squeeze in Silver Could Be the Big One Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 James Turk - Short Squeeze in Silver Could Be the Big One The hard part for investors was to buy on that drawdown in price from the old high of $31.23 to just above $26.38. It shows how the accumulation program that we continue to stress can take the emotional aspects out of buying both gold and silver. It just becomes mechanical for investors to buy at the same time each month[/url] Well, I bought despite thinking about selling or my Prechter concerns. I thank David Morgan who continually bangs away that 'discipline is important', 'price is irrelevant'. My next little problem is Does this simply mean a double top or are we out of the blocks to 40 dollar silver? Either way I guess I'm turning into a silver slave buyer. Schuks...she's a hard mistress when I'm real a gold lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well, I bought despite thinking about selling or my Prechter concerns. I thank David Morgan who continually bangs away that 'discipline is important', 'price is irrelevant'. My next little problem is Does this simply mean a double top or are we out of the blocks to 40 dollar silver? Either way I guess I'm turning into a silver slave buyer. Schuks...she's a hard mistress when I'm real a gold lover. Double top? I think not. Have a wee listen to Ross Clarks latest Howestreet.com interview: http://howestreet.com/2011/02/precious-metals-on-target/ Also remember all the talk of a double top in palladium in Sept/Oct last year? Look what happened there - a huge 30% blast off. It's amazing to me how completely and utterly wrong so many pundits have been on silver. Look at all the blogs and articles name calling silver investors when instead they should have just been calmly advising folks to buy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well it looks like I didn't nail the peak! - Dam it! The question is where to now? I still have half my silver bullion and bought in heavily in to gold near the recent low. The silver chart looks like it is developing up like the 2006 peak where there was an initial spike up which then temporarily broke down at around 1.5 200dma and then flared up to 1.7 x 200dma. If we get a repeat, this wll take silver to around $40. This is likely to happen at break neck speed and then correct down just as fast. If we get to 1.7 x 200dma, I will sell another 50% of my silver stash to leave me with 25% of my original base. If silver goes to the moon I will have still done very nicely and it will correct down to 200dma levels again, probably in the summer, although I accept that could be at a higher price than I am selling at. Bring it on! I refer to Occams Razor - keep it simple. You are way overcomplicationg things IMO. My strategy: Buy and hold in a bull market periodically. Buy more on dips. Sell when we are no longer in a bull market. We are currently deeply in a bull market in precious metals :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 COMEX inventories dropping nicely (only 41.9 Moz 'registered' - i.e. available for delivery): BTW, to me, something seems definitely 'up' in te silver market these last couple of days: explosive (small) moves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 soooo close to £20 :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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