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Just a thought, but why would a silver merchant want to accept cash for silver if they thought there was going to be a massive inflation? Why not just lock the doors and sit in the vault with the inventory waiting for D-Day? :P

Or indeed why would they re-order stock if they thought that the price was going to fall?

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So how's the upward explosion going so far.

 

I ask merely for information. :rolleyes:

 

[from memory] To be fair, silver did rocket up that day about 20 minutes after Cgnao made that post.

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So how's the upward explosion going so far.

 

I ask merely for information. :rolleyes:

Look at the spreads and prices of silver (I mean REAL silver, not paper silver). There is your explosion!

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Look at the spreads and prices of silver (I mean REAL silver, not paper silver). There is your explosion!

 

Hmm, I'll trust you on that. Sounds a bit of an excuse though.

 

Anyhow, it'll probably bounce back sooner or later. Seems even more volatile than gold to me.

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Just a thought, but why would a silver merchant want to accept cash for silver if they thought there was going to be a massive inflation? Why not just lock the doors and sit in the vault with the inventory waiting for D-Day? :P

 

You could say exactly the same thing about any product for sale. Why do bakers sell bread, why don’t they stop selling it, wait for the price to go up and then sell it?

 

Or indeed why would they re-order stock if they thought that the price was going to fall?

 

That could be true for a small tin pot amateur coin dealer but it is not going to be the case for large distributors and suppliers. The large outfits are likely to have set contacts above spot or prices fixed for a period (days or weeks). They don’t have to order any amount of stock until they know it has sold.

 

Take a look at Royal Mint for example. Their prices have not moved for months.

 

http://www.royalmint.com/PackedSets/BR08AG.aspx

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Seems even more volatile than gold to me.

Erm... Derrrr... Haven't we all been saying that for a LONG while?

 

Again, I don't see anything new coming from you Magpie - just baiting whilst G&S are having a bad week. Have I missed something? :rolleyes:

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So how's the upward explosion going so far.

 

I ask merely for information. :rolleyes:

 

Magpie - have a listen to this:

 

For anyone with any doubts about all this talk of manipulation, physical shortages, etc... take time out to listen to "3a" (the first part of the third hour) with Ian MacDonald. I defy you to listen to him and think "this guy's an Internet crackpot who has no idea" - and yet he explains how interest in physical gold has never been higher, and how central banks are beginning to reconsider their policy of selling gold.

 

Here's some pointers for you:

 

Listen from 8 Mins in:

 

Between July and August:

 

10 x increase in short position from inv. banks.....

 

3 investment banks (responsible for) 25% of open interest contracts (silver) on the Comex.....

 

(same as) 170 million oz silver / 20% Annual output of mines of silver in a year....

 

Now ask yourself, what happens when the physical market disconnects completely from the paper market?

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So has the price of silver (I mean REAL silver, not paper silver) exploded upwards?

 

I’m afraid I can’t remember the price of coins or bars on the day.

 

ag07012008.gif

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Erm... Derrrr... Haven't we all been saying that for a LONG while?

 

Again, I don't see anything new coming from you Magpie - just baiting whilst G&S are having a bad week. Have I missed something? :rolleyes:

 

Come on give me a break, it's my only hobby. :rolleyes:

 

OK, this one was a bit of baiting. I get irritated by the treatment of cg as a guru at times.

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True - less generous posters might call it trolling

 

OK, guilty.

 

But I see people above justifying cg's prediction on the basis it happened "from memory".

 

Actually Silver went from $17.50 to $18.50. Then to a high of $19.30 later in the month. Bit of a hike, bu hardly an explosion, is it? Especially as it was followed by a long decline. My point is about the cognitive dissonance, whereby , rather than believe the guru was wrong, people imagine that he was right and construct a story to fit that act.

 

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Magpie - have a listen to this:

 

 

 

Here's some pointers for you:

 

Listen from 8 Mins in:

 

Between July and August:

 

10 x increase in short position from inv. banks.....

 

3 investment banks (responsible for) 25% of open interest contracts (silver) on the Comex.....

 

(same as) 170 million oz silver / 20% Annual output of mines of silver in a year....

 

Now ask yourself, what happens when the physical market disconnects completely from the paper market?

 

Thanks, but listen, I know all those arguments. I'll believe it when I see prices rocket. Right now my gut feeling is that there is a lot of deflationary pressure and that price falls are being driven by deleveraging throughout the system reducing effective demand. I also tend to think this real/physical dichotomy is merely another form for the denial to be channeled through. If the predictions of a massive bull market fail to come to fruition, then people will be very inventive in finding explanations, it's only to be expected.

 

I may be wrong, but I don't see the hyperinflationary explosion coming. I may have been trolling a bit tonight but I promise I'll come back and fess up if I'm wrong on this.

 

(Incidentally, one of the reasons for being cautious on silver is that it is a sufficiently small market that it is vulnerable to pump and dump raids, as the past history proves, Hunt Brothers and other incidents. For me that makes it a rather volatile, dangerous bet, even though I think the average price of silver will react to inflation).

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OK, guilty.

 

But I see people above justifying cg's prediction on the basis it happened "from memory".

 

Actually Silver went from $17.50 to $18.50. Then to a high of $19.30 later in the month. Bit of a hike, bu hardly an explosion, is it? Especially as it was followed by a long decline. My point is about the cognitive dissonance, whereby , rather than believe the guru was wrong, people imagine that he was right and construct a story to fit that act.

 

 

I'm not defending cg's position (I'm sure he can do that himself).

 

My 1st post to you was to try and enlighten you on what's hapenning in the silver market at the moment, namely, paper price manipulation down vs real physical demand up.

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Do you count 17.50 to 18.50 as an explosion? Or even 17.50 to 19.30?

 

Over what time scale? (I’m not sure what you are getting at).

 

So had the price fallen by 50c on that day, and subsequently risen 40% you would say that the OP's original prediction was wrong?

 

That’s right

 

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Over what time scale? (I’m not sure what you are getting at).

 

I mean it was either a bad prediction or a misleading one.

 

If by 'explode' he meant spike up by up to 10% before fallnig massively, then it was a bad use of words.

 

If he meant 'go up massively' then I'd argue that a 5-10% spike followed by falls makes it a bad prediction.

 

 

 

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That’s right

So had I predicted this morning that Croatia were going to "stuff" England, you would be happy to proclaim me right because the Croatians had the most possession in the first 20 minutes?

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