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I classify a holding in goldmoney as physical, it is actual metal held allocated in a vault which is audited & insured and is your property not anyone elses. It also makes trading between metals much easier and cheaper than trading coins or bars.

 

I do keep some coins personally as a SHTF fallback and also to save on CGT, but hold the majority of my metal at GM.

 

Strangely for some reason today, I just decided sod ETF's <_<

 

Reverting back to plan A, buy from now on weakness and continue to HOLD both in comfortable proportions to my risk attitude. If I want liquidity i'll cash in stocks, without the added complication of trading physical :rolleyes:

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Is the G:S ratio on its way back to 50:1 now?

 

Two bearish silver articles. The first one of Moriarty, the second one of a friend of FOFOA, named "Costata" (FOFOFOA, so to speak). I recommend reading both, but the second one is impractically long. I also don't agree with these articles entirely. Moriarty has called an intermediate top, but IMHO he fails to see that it is intermediate. The FOFOFOA article is too theorizing (like some of FOFOA himself). I think the whole silver spiel can be summarized more easily by saying that silver has lost its monetary role a long time ago given above ground stocks are so small, hence there is more risk in it as an investment. On the other hand, flows (suplly and demand picture) and above ground stock IMHO imply that in a bullish upswing we could easily see the old lows on the G:S ratio, but it is not exactly easy to time this.

 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042511.html

 

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/costatas-silver-open-forum.html

 

Independent of these articles, I do think we could see 50:1 or 60:1 another time before revisiting 30:1 and then 20:1.

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How are the Buy-and-Holders doing today ?

 

What next for Silver? ... update

 

SLV-may11.gif.jpg

 

Probably $30, and maybe $26.

 

Why do I trade Options?

 

Because I know I cannot keep up these flawless forecasts forever. And I want to build flexibility into my portfolio.

 

COPPER, Silver, and Gold are all Falling Hard.

 

SILVER IS NOW BELOW $33, and $30 looks possible, even within today

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Is the G:S ratio on its way back to 50:1 now?

 

Two bearish silver articles. The first one of Moriarty, the second one of a friend of FOFOA, named "Costata" (FOFOFOA, so to speak). I recommend reading both, but the second one is impractically long. I also don't agree with these articles entirely. Moriarty has called an intermediate top, but IMHO he fails to see that it is intermediate.

It is really simple to see the BIG PICTURE:

 

Parabolic moves are followed by sharp drops, and that is what we are into now.

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i agree, it really is a joke.

short term the volatility is huge, long term the trend is obvious.

There is a very real chance that such COMPLACENCY will get shaken before this move is done.

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is the outlook as easy to see as this chart would have us believe in the short term ?

 

Screen+shot+2011-05-10+at+8.25.49+PM.png

 

are we , as some commentators suggest , going to see history rhyme ?

 

the chart was from a link from Turd Fergusons blog all along the watchtower , original found here .

 

i dont know why but the whole american debt ceiling / QEn reminds me of a piece of art i first saw in a Leeds art gallery .

 

titled:

 

Three Men of exactly the Same Size in an Unequal Room

 

3515_C.jpg

 

the picture is approx 4metres by 4metres in size and hung so that it allows you to place your eyeline in the bottom left corner .

 

is there a bald spot forming once again on the top of the USA's economic predicament ?

 

after reading Pixel8r's and DrBubb's threads with regards to 'buy and hold' and 'speculative trading' (this question may have best been placed in one of those two threads , sorry) , should i have the 'cajones' to play this ?

 

GlassBubble

 

ps. reading DrBubb's comments replying to my 'Hello' post , maybe this would/should form the basis of a 'Glassbubbles baby steps into the world of investing diary' post.

 

pps. please do not hold back on criticism or admonishment for my lack of netiquette or thought processes.

 

ppps. and hello all

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the problem (i find) with comparing to 2008, is that the rises to the peak were completely different

 

edit - reworded

 

also - the mar 08 correction was far less on the downside

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i dont know why but the whole american debt ceiling / QEn reminds me of a piece of art i first saw in a Leeds art gallery .

Hi glassbubble,

 

I am glad that you see it is all about the perspective which the situation is viewed from. wink.gif

 

Welcome to GEI.

 

 

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is the outlook as easy to see as this chart would have us believe in the short term ?

 

Screen+shot+2011-05-10+at+8.25.49+PM.png

 

are we , as some commentators suggest , going to see history rhyme ?

 

the chart was from a link from Turd Fergusons blog all along the watchtower , original found here .

[/img]

Nice chart !

 

Looks like a pathway that has worked near perfectly.

But today may represent the first major deviation,

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What this looks like is the classic shape of a bubble peaking - the question is whether that will drag gold down too. Silver's meteoric rise didn't really drag gold up - gold just kept plodding along, so I don't see the same shape forming (at least yet...)

 

 

(trying to upload a picture of the LSIL chart but can't).

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(trying to upload a picture of the LSIL chart but can't).

Here you go;

 

20110512-3nkdpq7ck47ukgk2y1fhck4xx.jpg

 

 

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How are the Buy-and-Holders doing today ?

Good, thanks.

 

This is not yet like 2008 - especially not in gold and oil. Silver would have to go below $24 for a 2008 repeat. Maybe we'll see it, maybe not.

 

If silver goes to these levels and the gold:silver ratio goes below 60:1, I might swap back even more than I already have (yes, I made a few silver ounces on the latest moves by swapping silver for gold and then back at appropriate times). HOWEVER, this was a smaller portion of my portfolio.

 

Here are the major reasons for buy & hold:

 

- Gold is far from a major historic top when relative expensiveness measures are considered (see chart below for one of many examples).

- Silver will follow gold in direction. It might overshoot gold. It might not.

- It is therefore time to buy & hold gold, and, maybe to a lesser extent, silver.

- Silver is riskier, so if you want to play safe, own more gold.

- Have an exit strategy for your gold (and silver) holdings. There will be a time when shares, houses, almost anything will look (very) cheap compared to gold. This is when you'll exit, but we're not there yet.

- Don't exit all at once. Average out, as you should have averaged in.

- Trading brings (major) risk into a buy & hold strategy. Even mistrading the gold:silver ratio could do serious damage to a portfolio.

- Don't overtrade.

 

From the 2001 lows up to the recent highs (1 decade):

- The $-price of gold has multiplied by 6.21, returning 520.92%, averaging a 20.03% annual return.

- The $-price of silver has multiplied by 12.44, returning 1,144.45%, averaging a 28.68% annual return.

 

What do you need more for a superb buy & hold strategy during the biggest financial crisis EVER?

 

The price goes up, and the price goes down. On average the price goes up. So, don't worry, gold is not done here. Paper bugs and top callers: dream on!

 

Here is how expensive gold is in comparison to the debt level of the US of A taking into account official gold holdings:

http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/Gold_Price_to_External_Debt_Equilibrium_Price.html

Gold_Price_to_External_Debt_Equilibrium_Price.png

This should immediately crack you up if you hear anyone shouting about a top in gold. :)

 

Yes, yes, there is always an intermediate top somewhere, somewhen. If you look at a price chart, there are at least ten intermediate tops every single day, hour, minute of the year.

 

Don't sweat the small stuff!

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What this looks like is the classic shape of a bubble peaking

 

& a little more help to maintain that thought arrives..

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/war-speculators-goes-global-shanghai-gold-exchange-hikes-silver-margins-third-time-month

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Hikes Silver Margins For Third Time In A Month

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& a little more help to maintain that thought arrives..

 

http://www.zerohedge...hird-time-month

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Hikes Silver Margins For Third Time In A Month

Funny how their war on speculators is purely aimed at speculators in the things that show inflation and not the massive speculation by the bankers in derivatives. Just part of the management of perception economics (MOPE) and nothing about seriously doing anything about the rise in speculation.

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Naughty speculators, but silly Bernanke. He should have specified where that free currency was to be spent

 

& where not

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Eric Sprott making headlines in Vegas:

 

* SPROTT SAYS GOLD IS NOW THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY

* SPROTT SAYS SILVER WAS `MANIPULATED' DOWN IN PRICE

* SPROTT SAYS PEOPLE IN IRELAND, GREECE ALREADY FLEEING BANKS

* SPROTT SAYS SAVERS WILL FLEE BANKS TO PUT MONEY INTO GOLD

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-says-gold-now-worlds-reserve-currency-says-silver-was-manipulated-lower

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Don't know about the rest of you guys but I am loving this opportunity to stock up on EUR 24 per OZ silver. This time next year you'll be kicking yourself that you didn't!

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You Should Short Silver and Gold at These Prices

 

May 12, 2011

 

I think silver and gold, both will settle the week lower. For the faint heart, staying away from precious metal for next couple of trading sessions might be a good idea. For aggressive traders, best risk reward is presented by getting short exposure to silver.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/269585-you-should-short-silver-and-gold-at-these-prices

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You Should Short Silver and Gold at These Prices

 

May 12, 2011

 

I think silver and gold, both will settle the week lower. For the faint heart, staying away from precious metal for next couple of trading sessions might be a good idea. For aggressive traders, best risk reward is presented by getting short exposure to silver.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/269585-you-should-short-silver-and-gold-at-these-prices

 

Interesting bit at the very beginning of that quoted paragraph:

 

For the long term investor, both gold and silver are undoubtedly heading higher.

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Let's GET REAL.

Are you really ready for a cheaper Silver price?

 

From the Beating B&H thread:

A rally from $18 to $48 in about 8-9 months qualifies as a bubble for me, and most other people.

 

The proof?

Of the $30 rally, over half has already been retraced.

 

If you are happy holding through that sort of volatility, when a rather clear selling opportunity presented itself at the top of the parabola near $50, then you have much more "risk tolerance" than I do.

 

Perhaps this thread really demonstrates that the B&H-purists have brass gonads, whilst the rest of us prefer not to risk the families jewels on a near 200% jump in under nine months being part of a bigger bull market.

 

Some here (B&H "purists"?) see it as their duty to get people to hold onto their precious metals holdings "no matter what." One of my objectives in creating this thread, and the "$50-ish Peak in Silver" thread was to demonstrate that an inflexible approach to holding assets can wind up costing investors a big opportunity loss. And I truly want intelligent GEI readers to treat the B&H crowd's "don't sell ever" line with the skepticism that it deserves.

 

Has this point sunk in yet? A more flexible approach (with switching, if that makes you more comfortable than selling out) is likely to be a winner in the long term. Let the Buy-&-Hold Purists "stay the course", and at the top they can brag about how they held on, while the sensible folk are banking some profits on positions that may have grown large through careful trading.

== ==

 

I just listened to the weekend podcast from Chris Walzek.

 

He said, "WE MAY BE LUCKY ENOUGH to buy silver in the $20's."

Fine.

 

But With WHAT, Chris?

 

empty-wallet.jpg

 

You told your listeners to buy and hold, so how much cash are they going to have on hand to buy a cheap market?

 

Moreover, with little cash, and sitting with a big opportunity loss, are they going to have the CONFIDENCE that they need to Buy below $30?

 

Meantime, our two Alternative Portfolios are sitting with oddles of cash, cherry picking the day-to-day opportunities as they arise. It is much easier to trade from a position of strength, rather than with little cash and little confidence.

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Silver has still risen from around 5 and most enthusiasts here are adding from their earnt income.

 

At best a fall from 50 to 20 or 8 ;) , or whatever it goes to, is just a bit dissapointing and does provide an

opportunity to get more at a cheaper price.

 

As people have pointed out before, many people here are not sophisticated traders. Silver holders

have done nothing wrong as far as i can see providing at some point in the future they do realise

that they will need to exit there position when prices are high, before others are also heading

for the same exit, where their only buyer is likely to be some gnarly old metal trader offering

them a pretty unattractive price for metal he cannot sell and does not want to hold.

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Louise Yamada KWN

 

“We are still of the opinion that gold is still in a structural bull market but you had a little bit of a run-up here which is normal, after which one would expect a consolidation to be taking place. What we didn’t anticipate of course is the rapidity with which gold and silver pulled back, particularly silver which was on a parabolic rise prior to the pullback that we witnessed.”

 

“I certainly think that (silver) was due for a good reversal of what appeared to be an interim speculative bubble. But longer-term you can’t deny that silver has just come out of a 30 year basing process and I think is in a longer-term bull market. But after you have this sort of speculative run-up and decline, you are probably going to have to see a period of weeks to months of a consolidation and reestablishing the next base from which price can pick up at a later date.

 

...We haven’t had that many bull markets in it (silver). I think it’s intriguing that price went right back up to that major resistance of the old top and has stalled let’s say. It probably needs to come back and stabilize in the 30’s, I’d like to see it hold in the 30’s here.”

 

 

but hey, it's just speculators pushing the price up isn't it?

 

 

http://www.mining.com/2011/01/19/miners-challenged-to-meet-growing-demand-for-industrial-silver/

 

The VM Group forecasts the compound annual growth rate of silver, for use in solar power, to rise by 17.5 percent annually over the next decade. This will require about 70 million ounces of silver per year by 2020.

 

The group’s numbers are conservative compared to those of the International Energy Agency, which predicts a need for 85 million ounces of silver a year between 2010 and 2050 for photovoltaics alone.

 

 

Silver ink? whatever next?

 

self-cleaning suits?

 

silver deodorants?

 

 

crazy, crazy, crazy, time to sell silver for sure B)

 

 

edit:

 

Silver Nanoparticles May One Day Be Key to Devices That Keep Hearts Beating Strong and Steady

 

Batteries Made of Silver Nanoparticles Could Revolutionize Treatment of Mental Illnesses and Stroke

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Louise Yamada KWN

 

 

 

 

but hey, it's just speculators pushing the price up isn't it?

 

 

http://www.mining.com/2011/01/19/miners-challenged-to-meet-growing-demand-for-industrial-silver/

 

 

 

 

Silver ink? whatever next?

 

self-cleaning suits?

 

silver deodorants?

 

 

crazy, crazy, crazy, time to sell silver for sure B)

 

The question raised by Dr Bubb is about buy and hold as a thought about strategy, when it would

seem better, to have a core position and sell a little after strong rises and then be continually adding back in from earnings, where large pull packs from strong rises are normal and expected because there will always be speculative activity supporting the price in strong bull markets.

 

Ramping buy and hold in a strong pull back is to my way of thinking a bit daft. If it works for some people then fine but there are other ways of approaching this investment and money making strategy.

 

You also have to wonder to what extent the market is ignorant of federal reserve activities and likely outcomes.

All those base money electronic reserves for example could dissapear enormously quickly as the banks swap into higher interest paying bonds in exchange for uselessly huge amounts of base money that they are currently holding.

 

All my attempts and other peoples attempts to engage silver and gold investors about this are met

with mostly hate talk and contempt of a highly personal kind. Why is that?

 

For example if there are huge opportunities in silver based products in the future then there must

be huge opportunities for a sustainable recovery over the next years. That is not talk we hear

much about here where the future is full of collapse and doom.

 

So what is to be? Feds restoring their balance sheet to normal levels in an inflationary period or a difficult economic

environment for years to come where new products have a hugely difficult time in getting sold

and prices are struggling?

 

It cannot be just this one eyed view of prices to the moon without large pull backs

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