SILVER

[drbubb]

I'm going in to gold and silver shares quite heavily myself. It seems like an opportune time to me.

I have been nibbling.

But not buying aggressively yet. I do think lower low lie ahead for both Silver and Gold.

[Pixel8r]

I bought Silver Wheaton, Silvercorp and Great Panther Silver recently. I'll buy more over the next few months if they drop further.

I own all of those as well, they are all good safe bets but are priced as such these days. For a bit more spice I have also been buying some exploring juniors recently, as a max of 20% of my portfolio, which appear cheap to me currently (ECU. GBB, CSG, SVL, AQ, MML).

 

 

 

 

[Carlton]

RVM and MGN are also worth investigating.

 

RVM just listed on the AMEX leading many ppl to suggest that their shares were ready to explode upwards. As it happens, silver corrected just as RVM was listing. This may be a very good opp. For this company to be trading with a fully diluted mkt cap of $132 million is something.

[Pixel8r]

I looked at ECU a while back as Goldlion over at Stewart Thomson's place suggested it. While doing my research I discovered the chap over at IKN has a real beef with ECU:

 

http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/

 

I decided against buying after reading his posts on the company and just as well as it has been a total dog since Jan. Now maybe things have turned for ECU and they are now a screaming buy. However, I would tread with caution and at least look at what IKN has to say. Good luck.

Been finding out a bit more about that blogger. It seems he is well known by ECU followers and is "a real slippery scumbag". The quote below is from the comment at the bottom of this post by Dave in Denver on his site The Golden Truth. I wouldn't dismiss ECU just off the back of one bloggers posts about them, that is the trouble with the net it makes stock manipulation much easier.

ECU Silver May Be Ready To Make A Big Move

 

 

The blogger in Peru is an at-large stock analyst who publishes for Hallgarten and Company. He's a real slippery scumbag. I'm not sure if he lives in Peru or just uses a server in Peru for his blog.

 

His motivation? Assuming a he has a few thousand followers, maybe even more, a big hedge fund can pay him to go on a smear campaign against a stock. This guy's work on ECU is blatantly wrong and slanderous. We have confronted him several times via email and he responds with unabashed arrogance and lies. Yellow journalism at its epitome

[Errol]

One thing is for certain, the current trend simply CANNOT continue as the stocks of available silver in the COMEX warehouses continue to plummet

 

http://maxkeiser.com/2011/05/23/one-thing-is-for-certain-the-current-trend-simply-cannot-continue-as-the-stocks-of-available-silver-in-the-comex-warehouses-continue-to-plummet/

[Errol]

Stephen Leeb - Silver Should Be $150 Today

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/26_Stephen_Leeb_-_Silver_Should_Be_%24150_Today.html

[Perishabull]

from Zerohedge;

 

Easy Come, Easy Go: The SLV Put Buyer's Story Comes To A Close... With A Wash

"A little over a month ago, when silver was trading at just about $40, a silver put buyer made headlines (and even arguably moved the price of the metal) after buying $1 million worth of SLV July $25 puts. The same buyer made further headlines after he or she generated a 68,294,229,502,717.3% annualized return 4 weeks later. Well, today the trilogy comes to a close with the last headline saying something to the nature of "easy come, easy go..." - following a massive surge in the July $25 puts volume, we have learned that the same put buyer has offloaded his entire 10k put block.... at a complete wash. In other words, someone just got a very stark lesson in why a 500% paper profit can be converted into a 0% realized non-profit (and loss when factoring transaction costs) in just three weeks."

 

 

 

 

I don't buy this at all, someone purchases $1 mill SLV puts, sees the position up to $7 mill, rides it all the way down to $1.4 mill then decides to sell. I smell a rat here. Any trader would have taken some off at one of the 500/600/700% up points surely. I am considering whether the large block purchase of puts was some form of signal to others in the market that something was about to happen. There was a situation previously where someone or an entity got involved in over 100,000 call option contracts in Transocean (RIG) and it soared not long afterwards...

[G0ldfinger]

Easy Come, Easy Go: The SLV Put Buyer's Story Comes To A Close... With A Wash

How idiotic.

 

I love manic paper traders.

[njpurser]

How idiotic.

 

I love manic paper traders.

 

firming up again......

[electroweak]

Interesting.... Silver Registered Inventory now down in to the 29 M Oz handle.. I can remember when it was 80+ M Oz.

 

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/Silver_Stocks.xls

 

 

 

For old times' sake:

[huntergatherer]

Bullion market yet to recover from silver shock

Published: Saturday, Jun 4, 2011, 10:33 IST

 

A month back, silver was the favourite of investors but, today, they are scared of it. The unusually high volatility in silver prices which fell from Rs75,000 a kg to Rs51,000 a kg in less than 45 days, has killed the spirit of investors.

 

The high volatility in silver prices and the stagnation in gold have forced investors to hold their plans to invest in bullion. Experts and traders say the demand for the precious metals has been falling for the past one month.

 

The drastic fall in silver prices stunned investors. A large number of investors lost a lot of money though there were many who made money too by selling silver when its price was at its highest. Now, however, investors are unwilling to buy precious metal for fear of losing money.

 

The impact of the silver crash has been such that even the wholesale and retail market has been hit with business coming down by 40% in the last couple of months. “There has been a fall of almost 30% to 40% in business as compared to the previous two months,” said Girish Choksi, former president, Choksi Market Association of Ahmedabad.

 

Natubhai Choksi, a wholesale ornament manufacturer and trader of the state, said they were to expecting silver prices to fall further to Rs48,000 per kg in the next couple of months. "The market, at present, is unpredictable," he said.

 

Another jeweller, Rohit Choksi, said, "The market is so volatile that nobody dares invest in silver. As for gold, nobody is investing in it because it is currently not profitable to do so."

 

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_bullion-market-yet-to-recover-from-silver-shock_1551023

[lyb]

Very strong performance by silver despite strong dollar. Currently 37.54$.

 

Had to buy back many of those SLV shares sold at 39.50. I underestimated the low at 33.00, expecting a deeper correction, as in 2006. Hate to buy back the shares with the silver price 22% above 200DMA, but still left an equal amount of shares to buy back hopefully at lower price. I only wish the summer correction should start soon.

[warpig]

Everyone is waiting for the end of QE2 and to see which way the wind blows.

 

Do you own any gold/silver? You seem to have an endless supply of bearish articles. BTW - It's OK to say no, I'm just curious of your position.

 

Bullion market yet to recover from silver shock

Published: Saturday, Jun 4, 2011, 10:33 IST

 

A month back, silver was the favourite of investors but, today, they are scared of it. The unusually high volatility in silver prices which fell from Rs75,000 a kg to Rs51,000 a kg in less than 45 days, has killed the spirit of investors.

 

The high volatility in silver prices and the stagnation in gold have forced investors to hold their plans to invest in bullion. Experts and traders say the demand for the precious metals has been falling for the past one month.

 

The drastic fall in silver prices stunned investors. A large number of investors lost a lot of money though there were many who made money too by selling silver when its price was at its highest. Now, however, investors are unwilling to buy precious metal for fear of losing money.

 

The impact of the silver crash has been such that even the wholesale and retail market has been hit with business coming down by 40% in the last couple of months. "There has been a fall of almost 30% to 40% in business as compared to the previous two months," said Girish Choksi, former president, Choksi Market Association of Ahmedabad.

 

Natubhai Choksi, a wholesale ornament manufacturer and trader of the state, said they were to expecting silver prices to fall further to Rs48,000 per kg in the next couple of months. "The market, at present, is unpredictable," he said.

 

Another jeweller, Rohit Choksi, said, "The market is so volatile that nobody dares invest in silver. As for gold, nobody is investing in it because it is currently not profitable to do so."

 

http://www.dnaindia....r-shock_1551023

[huntergatherer]

Everyone is waiting for the end of QE2 and to see which way the wind blows.

 

Do you own any gold/silver? You seem to have an endless supply of bearish articles. BTW - It's OK to say no, I'm just curious of your position.

Probably not much different from most others on here.

 

Held Au since 2006 (house deposit fund put in) and bought Ag from 2008. Swapped 25% Ag after blow off top into Au near 32:1 which was good as able to buy additional Au at 2006 equivalent prices!

 

The bearish articles are there to challenge perceptions/sentiment.

 

From the article one could have highlighted:

 

though there were many who made money too by selling silver when its price was at its highest

[Pixel8r]

Nice action in ECU Silver today +17.5%, looks to me that the shorts are madly covering I am expecting the up to continue tomorrow as there hasn't been any news yet.

[Pixel8r]

Nice action in ECU Silver today +17.5%, looks to me that the shorts are madly covering I am expecting the up to continue tomorrow as there hasn't been any news yet.

Will be good if we get some follow through today to the big spike and volume yesterday, as it looks like we could be breaking the downtrend.

 

[leviathan]

Silver touched 34.30 earlier. 144 day moving average is at 33.71. Must be a good probability of it bouncing off this in the next day or two. Might have a small punt at silver long.

[aliveandkicking]

Silver touched 34.30 earlier. 144 day moving average is at 33.71. Must be a good probability of it bouncing off this in the next day or two. Might have a small punt at silver long.

 

The fundamentals are in play too. Copper is not strong and could fall a relatively massive amount and where copper goes silver is likely to go too?

[leviathan]

Well I guess that's the risk a^K - copper has been falling steadily to below 144 and other importnat MA's but if we get a short term bounce from the current oversold conditions then the play should still work as a short term trade. Copper picking up today though.

[aliveandkicking]

Well I guess that's the risk a^K - copper has been falling steadily to below 144 and other importnat MA's but if we get a short term bounce from the current oversold conditions then the play should still work as a short term trade. Copper picking up today though.

 

Do you know anything about the chinese using copper as collateral for construction loans? I dont follow the logic but i saw it mentioned in the comments on a reasonably sound NZ finance board called interest.co.nz

[leviathan]

No fraid not

[VictorBroom]

Do you know anything about the chinese using copper as collateral for construction loans? I dont follow the logic but i saw it mentioned in the comments on a reasonably sound NZ finance board called interest.co.nz

 

There have been a number of articles in Alphaville about this. I'll try and find them if I have time at work tomorrow.

[aliveandkicking]

There have been a number of articles in Alphaville about this. I'll try and find them if I have time at work tomorrow.

 

Thanks. I quickly located a few of those articles on copper purchases to enable access to cheap finance which was bypassing chinese central bank loan tightening, which PBOC say they have recently tightened up on to give supposedly a copper surplus at the moment behind recent price weakness.

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/16/569436/chinas-copper-collateral-and-covert-credit/

[romans holiday]

First of, long term bullish on silver.

 

That said, a very good chance she's going to remain volatile.... and that in the aggregate may appreciate at a similiar rate to gold... being around 20% a year [in 2006, silver was 13 dollars]. 20% appreciation a year would put silver around 32/33... but could well over-correct.

 

 

A long term log chart could be crucial to seeing where silver may go in the short/ medium term here.

 

 

 

The thin blue line is presently around 25.

[Pixel8r]

First of, long term bullish on silver.

 

That said, a very good chance she's going to remain volatile.... and that in the aggregate may appreciate at a similiar rate to gold... being around 20% a year [in 2006, silver was 13 dollars]. 20% appreciation a year would put silver around 32/33... but could well over-correct.

Your thinking seems flawed to me, why do you think silver will on 'aggregate may appreciate at a similar rate to gold'? The gain in silver in the last gold bull run in the 1970's vastly out did the gain in gold, the same appears to be happening this time. Sure silver will move up further and come down further it acts like gold on steroids.

 

Being 50 / 50 gold to dollars seems a bad move to me, when dollars are being created at the rate they are. What do you think will happen to the dollar/gold/silver as QE3 is announced? I think that gold and silver will take off like the scalded cat and the dollar will tank. So having gold and dollar you will gain from the gold and give back via the dollar depreciation, which will mean you stay in the same place while stuff continues to get more expensive around you.

 

Since 2004 the average UK house has crashed around 73% when valued in gold and 84% when valued in silver. If you look at the average UK house valued in dollars the crash didn't start till 2008 and they have only been around a 29% fall.

 

We seem to be always going over the same ground, I wonder how long it will take you to get it.