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why next month in particular?

Because September & May are usually the best months historically for gold and silver price appreciation.

 

 

Silver (CMX): (High: May or Sep//Low: Jun or Dec) The effects of the normal contango price structure are especially pronounced. With each successive contract priced at a premium to reflect carrying charges, rollover produces a deceptive "rally."

 

 

seasonalsi.gif

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Because September & May are usually the best months historically for gold and silver price appreciation.

 

 

 

 

 

seasonalsi.gif

 

historically speaking, the summer move in gold was not the norm, hence i wonder how valid these seasonal trends are this late into the bull

 

with gold coming off its recent highs, i cannot see the momentum for the move in silver just yet

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historically speaking, the summer move in gold was not the norm, hence i wonder how valid these seasonal trends are this late into the bull

 

with gold coming off its recent highs, i cannot see the momentum for the move in silver just yet

Well I think the move this summer was due to the continuing worsening of the situation, I am expecting this September to be even more dramatic than usual. The paper price of Silver has been beaten up from the 5 margin hikes, but all that has done really is increase the demand for the physical metal. In the end the physical demand will over power the paper games.

 

Did you see this snippet from Ted Butler's subscription service, which was published by Ed Steer today? It looks like this could be the start of the commercial signal failure which has long been talked about. The commercials buying in a rising market certainly talks of pent up momentum to me.

 

"From the COT report of August 2nd to the current report, the total commercial net short position [in gold] has been reduced by more than 57,000 contracts (5.7 million oz), as all three commercial categories bought short positions back aggressively. There should be no question that this commercial buying was the prime force behind the $300 surge in gold from August 1st thru the peak above $1,900. There should also be no question that the commercials uniformly panicked and took massive losses on their buybacks, as the technical funds and other longs cashed out at massive profits. This had never before happened in gold market history. The bottom line is that the buying back of commercial short COMEX gold contracts caused the price to explode. I believe the commer cials also bought back another large chunk of short positions on the big gold price decline after the Tuesday cut-off. Make no mistake – whether the commercials are buying back on price rallies or declines, they are booking massive losses on the buyback. That has never occurred before."

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i cannot see the momentum for the move in silver just yet

Can you see it yet? Start of september and up 4% today.

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He added, “This bull trend will end all the other major bull markets,” and singled out debt capital as an asset class for which demand and prices would decline.

 

...In addition, Gmuer said silver is set for an even greater upward run than gold, with the market due to correct a distortion in its pricing of silver in relation to gold.

 

Gold and silver currently price at a ratio of around 45:1. However, Gmuer said declining silver output over the last 60 years—as a result of inventory depletion and mine closures—meant silver supplies currently outnumber gold by a ratio of less than 10:1, thus indicating a market correction is due.

 

Once this occurs, Gmuer said that silver prices would settle at 10 percent to 15 percent of gold. This implies that if gold reaches $6,200 per ounce, silver will peak at between $620 and $930 per ounce.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44373049

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Silver Prices Drop As Global Economic Fears Rise

 

September 6, 2011 8:46 AM

 

Prospects of a global slowdown, perhaps even a worldwide recession, weighed on silver Tuesday, leading traders to bid down the price of the metal as well as shares of companies that produce it.

 

About half of silver's total world demand stems from industrial customers, so any sign of a slowdown in industrial activity hits silver assets particularly hard.

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/news/209189/20110906/forex/silver.htm

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Gold, Silver Down Sharply on News of Jobs, Stimulus Package

Trusts, mining ETFs and miners also broadly falling

 

Sep 7, 2011, 11:38 am

 

Gold and silver trusts were off sharply in exchange trading early Wednesday.

 

•The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) was off more than 4%.

•The iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) was down nearly 4.1%.

•The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) was around 3.3% lower.

 

Gold and silver mining ETFs were moving lower as well.

 

•The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) was around 1.8% lower.

•The Market Vector Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) was down some 2.7%.

•The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL) was off more than 1.6%.

 

Shares of gold miners were showing sharp losses, with NovaGold Resources especially hit hard.

 

•Agnico Eagle Mines (USA) (NYSE:AEM) was down 1.9%.

•Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX) was down around 1.9%.

•Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) was around 1.8% lower.

•Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM) was nearly 3.9% lower.

•NovaGold Resources (USA) (AMEX:NG) was off more than 6.7%.

 

Silver miners’ shares were also moving lower early Wednesday.

 

•Coeur D’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE:CDE) was nearly 2.9% lower.

•Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) was around 4% lower.

•Pan American Silver Corp. (USA) (NASDAQ:PAAS) was off nearly 2.5%.

•Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (NYSE:SLW) was down about 2.5%.

•Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) (NASDAQ:SSRI) was around 3.5% lower.

 

http://www.investorplace.com/2011/09/gold-prices-silver-prices-jobs-stimulus/

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Gold, Silver Down Sharply on News of Jobs, Stimulus Package

Trusts, mining ETFs and miners also broadly falling

Why do you always post negative stuff? Gold, Silver and the miners have been doing just fine better than almost all other assets yet you only ever post negativity. blink.gif

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Why do you always post negative stuff? Gold, Silver and the miners have been doing just fine better than almost all other assets yet you only ever post negativity. blink.gif

The Paragon Report: Silver Demand Declines

 

Friday September 9, 2011 12:26 PM

 

The Paragon Report, a New York based independent research portal, notes that there is a marked drop in demand for silver due to slowing in global production. More than half of the demand in silver is generated through industrial applications. According to the report, Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW.TO) amended their 2011 production tally in response to a slower than anticipated production ramp-up at their Panasquito mine located in Mexico. Silver production declined from 28 million to 25 million silver equivalent ounces, including 15,000 ounces of gold. Meanwhile Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM, TSX: SVM) saw a 31 percent increase in silver production costs during its most recent quarter. The company posted record fiscal revenues of US$69.7 million corresponding to a 90 percent increase from the last quarter.

 

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110909_MM.html

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Sprott calls for $1200 an ounce silver - 'silver will outperform gold in the next decade'. it will probably trade at 10 to 1 because things tend to overshoot. Let’s use Jim Sinclair’s $12,000 target, that would suggest $1,200 silver, which is a thirty bagger from here...

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/9_Eric_Sprott_-_From_Here_Silver_is_a_30_Bagger_to_$1,200.html

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The Paragon Report: Silver Demand Declines

 

Friday September 9, 2011 12:26 PM

 

The Paragon Report, a New York based independent research portal, notes that there is a marked drop in demand for silver due to slowing in global production. More than half of the demand in silver is generated through industrial applications. According to the report, Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW.TO) amended their 2011 production tally in response to a slower than anticipated production ramp-up at their Panasquito mine located in Mexico. Silver production declined from 28 million to 25 million silver equivalent ounces, including 15,000 ounces of gold. Meanwhile Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM, TSX: SVM) saw a 31 percent increase in silver production costs during its most recent quarter. The company posted record fiscal revenues of US$69.7 million corresponding to a 90 percent increase from the last quarter.

 

http://www.kitco.com...0110909_MM.html

 

Increasing Demand for Silver by the Solar Energy Industry

 

Posted on August 16, 2011 by SilverPrices.com Editorial Team

The US debt crisis and European economic woes has sent the silver trading industry into a turmoil as prices kept on declining through much of August. Traders and investors are grappled with fear since the current crisis could cause a decline in demand for industrial silver. Another interesting point that has come forward is the growing inflation rate in China, hindering a country's growth that along with Brazil and other developing countries has until now ceased further recession dips.

 

Across global markets, Friday and Monday have shown renewed improvement suggesting investors nature to risk probabilities. Silver as an industrial metal is demonstrating a reestablished interest, helping to stabilize prices.

 

Silver's role to buoy prices and act as a safe haven asset depends much on its role as an industrial metal. Silver investors need to look deep into this factor of the need of silver as a commodity in the industrial sector.

 

Despite anticipation of another recession, optimism still rules in favor of silver that there would be increasing demand from developing countries for silver intended for agricultural, industrial and energy-based goods.

 

In spite of the fact that investment markets eat a major part of pie share in silver demand, industrial use of silver is still the largest market, advancing from 349.7 million ounces in 2001 to 487.4 million ounces in 2010.

 

Presently, industrial demand for silver is 50% but is expected to increase to 70% by the next decade...

 

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SLV-sep9.gif.jpg

 

Comments on Beating B&H thread

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Silver Demand Declines

Presently, industrial demand for silver is 50% but is expected to increase to 70%

:lol:

 

It's good to get a balanced view.

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SLV-sep9.gif.jpg

 

Comments on Beating B&H thread

 

20110914-gk9f6t1cw9hric9ejii7pcakqp.jpg

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So no woman women named. What a relief :rolleyes:

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Commodities fall off a cliff.

 

The commodities move has cooled away, along with prices for gold and silver, oil and agricultural raw materials falling Friday following a record-breaking run earlier this week.A shock jump in China's rising cost of living rate spooked traders as well as started a clear, crisp sell-off Friday. China's declaration that customer costs in the country rose by 4.4% in October motivated worries that the world's second-largest economy is actually barrelling forward at an unsustainable speed.

 

Traders are worried that the Chinese government could increase interest rates, as a way to slow down staggering inflation. Since, the China is really a main consumer of raw materials that can lead to less interest in commodities across the board.Gold and silver plunged consequently. Arriving off almost every day record levels, precious metal dropped $37.80, or 2.7%, to settle at $1,365.50 an ounce on Friday. Metallic, which in fact had been striking 30-year levels, dived 5.3% in order to $25.94 an ounce. As well as copper, which was additionally rallying in order to multi-month highs, fell 2.8% in order to $3.91 a good ounce.

 

http://www.businesstoday-eg.com/markets/asia-pacific/commodities-fall-off-a-cliff.html

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Commodities fall off a cliff.

 

The commodities move has cooled away, along with prices for gold and silver, oil and agricultural raw materials falling Friday following a record-breaking run earlier this week.A shock jump in China's rising cost of living rate spooked traders as well as started a clear, crisp sell-off Friday. China's declaration that customer costs in the country rose by 4.4% in October motivated worries that the world's second-largest economy is actually barrelling forward at an unsustainable speed.

 

Traders are worried that the Chinese government could increase interest rates, as a way to slow down staggering inflation. Since, the China is really a main consumer of raw materials that can lead to less interest in commodities across the board.Gold and silver plunged consequently. Arriving off almost every day record levels, precious metal dropped $37.80, or 2.7%, to settle at $1,365.50 an ounce on Friday. Metallic, which in fact had been striking 30-year levels, dived 5.3% in order to $25.94 an ounce. As well as copper, which was additionally rallying in order to multi-month highs, fell 2.8% in order to $3.91 a good ounce.

 

http://www.businesstoday-eg.com/markets/asia-pacific/commodities-fall-off-a-cliff.html

 

welcome to 6 months ago.

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Are you deliberately and unnecessarily trying to cast a negative outlook for silver?

 

 

 

Commodities fall off a cliff.

 

The commodities move has cooled away, along with prices for gold and silver, oil and agricultural raw materials falling Friday following a record-breaking run earlier this week.A shock jump in China's rising cost of living rate spooked traders as well as started a clear, crisp sell-off Friday. China's declaration that customer costs in the country rose by 4.4% in October motivated worries that the world's second-largest economy is actually barrelling forward at an unsustainable speed.

 

Traders are worried that the Chinese government could increase interest rates, as a way to slow down staggering inflation. Since, the China is really a main consumer of raw materials that can lead to less interest in commodities across the board.Gold and silver plunged consequently. Arriving off almost every day record levels, precious metal dropped $37.80, or 2.7%, to settle at $1,365.50 an ounce on Friday. Metallic, which in fact had been striking 30-year levels, dived 5.3% in order to $25.94 an ounce. As well as copper, which was additionally rallying in order to multi-month highs, fell 2.8% in order to $3.91 a good ounce.

 

http://www.businesst...ff-a-cliff.html

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We will see if this holds true:

 

Silver Price Forecast $86.75 in 2011, Precious Metals Investment Strategies

 

http://www.marketora...ticle24714.html

 

The title of that article on Market Oracle is quite misleading (I know it's not yours) since there is no price forecast of $86.75 for 2011 in the article (it didn't look right as a forecast for 2011). It's simply saying that based on a historic 16 - 1 ratio silver should be $86.75 based on the price of gold at the time the article was written, $1,389.

 

Did you read it before you posted it?

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