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$35 looks tasty for october, followed by a rally into xmas

 

agpossoctlow11.gif

 

Double-agent. I think you have nailed it. I reckon that call will be spot on. Silver has just hit 200dma in dollars. I am reversing back the truck.

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Wow !

Just wonder how low we can go.

Surely if we see a sustained period of deleveraging, margin calls being met etc , the downside is unlimited, especially due to the higher volatilty of silver anyway.

No doubt the die hard bulls will be saying - makes it a great buying opportunity, but I would say truth be told they would be very uncomfortable by the possibilities of where it could drop to.

Recently I saw figures stating that silver demand will be 70% industrial at some point not to far away, doesn't that also not bode well in a massively slowing global economy ?

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Double-agent. I think you have nailed it. I reckon that call will be spot on. Silver has just hit 200dma in dollars. I am reversing back the truck.

 

i am going to look at this again today (will post charts later) - tbh, i didn't like the velocity of the drop yesterday, it would have been better to get to $35 over a period of a few weeks. Hence, i think a new target (low) will probably be produced as a result

 

tho, at this moment in time i think there's only a few dollars in it - better to have a buy 'zone' than an absolute target and $35 does look good right now

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Wow !

Just wonder how low we can go.

Surely if we see a sustained period of deleveraging, margin calls being met etc , the downside is unlimited, especially due to the higher volatilty of silver anyway.

No doubt the die hard bulls will be saying - makes it a great buying opportunity, but I would say truth be told they would be very uncomfortable by the possibilities of where it could drop to.

Recently I saw figures stating that silver demand will be 70% industrial at some point not to far away, doesn't that also not bode well in a massively slowing global economy ?

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9164&view=findpost&p=223293

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Wow that was quite a fall yesterday, I had a stop loss hit just seven minutes after I opened a trade. There is going to be a big spring back at some point but I don't think I will enter just yet, there looks to be a lot of support around the 33.5 level to me. For physical buyers this looks to be a great buying opportunity.

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$35 looks tasty for october, followed by a rally into xmas

 

agpossoctlow11.gif

 

 

UPDATE:

 

agupdatesept11.gif

 

not much change really - just got into the 'zone' a bit quicker than expected, hence the zone is now a wee bit bigger

 

I have added the 'slope of hope' line, because silver needs to clear this to see blue skies again

 

 

The following chart shows the crucial resistance turned support line which features in the above chart:

 

agresturnedsupport0911.gif

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$35 looks tasty for october, followed by a rally into xmas

 

agpossoctlow11.gif

 

 

UPDATE:

 

agupdatesept11.gif

 

not much change really - just got into the 'zone' a bit quicker than expected, hence the zone is now a wee bit bigger

 

I have added the 'slope of hope' line, because silver needs to clear this to see blue skies again

 

 

The following chart shows the crucial resistance turned support line which features in the above chart:

 

agresturnedsupport0911.gif

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Yes good charts double agent. We went straight through that first ascending trend-line but I think that silver might have found a bottom here at around 32.2 with a couple of high volume candles on the 15 minute charts, it has been a wild couple of days.

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Quite amazing what we are witnessing here, vertical drops.

 

I think this may be the end of the cyclical bull market in silver. As a result of yesterday's drop my NAV dropped by 2.6%.

 

Previously in April, I bought puts on SLV, and sold half of my physical right at the top, I then cashed in the puts between $33.75 and $35, and bought back my physical position at $37. At the time people were rubbishing the idea of it being a top (apart from Bubb). My thinking was that the bull market would continue, but that the price would have to reach and exceed $50 for this to be confirmed to be the case in my mind. Selling after a drop is not typically what you do in markets, however, the meaning of yesterday's price action and the price action in the markets from a macro perspective could be very significant in my opinion.

 

After much vacillating, late yesterday I sold my entire physical silver position for US Dollars, I got out at $36.4. I am now entirely in cash.

 

Today I see silver down a further 10%, so at the moment it looks like the correct decision, but it's too early to say.

 

Only time will tell.

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I think this may be the end of the cyclical bull market in silver. As a result of yesterday's drop my NAV dropped by 2.6%.

 

Previously in April, I bought puts on SLV, and sold half of my physical right at the top, I then cashed in the puts between $33.75 and $35, and bought back my physical position at $37. At the time people were rubbishing the idea of it being a top (apart from Bubb). My thinking was that the bull market would continue, but that the price would have to reach and exceed $50 for this to be confirmed to be the case in my mind. Selling after a drop is not typically what you do in markets, however, the meaning of yesterday's price action and the price action in the markets from a macro perspective could be very significant in my opinion.

 

After much vacillating, late yesterday I sold my entire physical silver position for US Dollars, I got out at $36.4. I am now entirely in cash.

 

Today I see silver down a further 10%, so at the moment it looks like the correct decision, but it's too early to say.

 

Only time will tell.

 

i still think we will see $50 this xmas; unless we have a total failure of support at these levels (eg. the 'zone') i have no reason to change my mind

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Would certainly take some courage and confidence in the silver story to buy in at $32-33 with what is unfolding globally and no doubt what still lies around the corner.

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Would certainly take some courage and confidence in the silver story to buy in at $32-33 with what is unfolding globally and no doubt what still lies around the corner.

 

maybe, but we were due a re-test of support in silver and well, here it is......

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Sorry, but I could not resist:

 

Options strategy is being vindicate today,

and so I am briefly changing the title of the thread to:

 

Beating the THE CRAP out of Buy&Hold

Long Bias + no gearing, Options to limit Price Risk

 

Haha

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We will see if this holds true:

Silver Price Forecast $86.75 in 2011, Precious Metals Investment Strategies \

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24714.html

LOL.

Dream on.

Do you now see the predictive value inherent in these WILD forecasts ??

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$35 looks tasty for october, followed by a rally into xmas

agpossoctlow11.gif

I just bought SLV at $31.90.

That's the equivalent to buying Silver at $33 or lower

 

My $27 forecast looks very possible now

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I think this may be the end of the cyclical bull market in silver. As a result of yesterday's drop my NAV dropped by 2.6%.

 

Previously in April, I bought puts on SLV, and sold half of my physical right at the top, I then cashed in the puts between $33.75 and $35, and bought back my physical position at $37. At the time people were rubbishing the idea of it being a top (apart from Bubb). My thinking was that the bull market would continue, but that the price would have to reach and exceed $50 for this to be confirmed to be the case in my mind. Selling after a drop is not typically what you do in markets, however, the meaning of yesterday's price action and the price action in the markets from a macro perspective could be very significant in my opinion.

 

After much vacillating, late yesterday I sold my entire physical silver position for US Dollars, I got out at $36.4. I am now entirely in cash.

 

Today I see silver down a further 10%, so at the moment it looks like the correct decision, but it's too early to say.

 

Only time will tell.

 

Very interesting thoughts PosDev, at the moment you certainly look to be correct. Could I ask when you started buying the physical?

 

I think that the rest of today will be crucial for determining silver for the rest of the year. A hold at 32.2 and a recovery to say 34.5 would leave me feeling fairly bullish for the next week and expecting a return to the high 30's. But a break below 32.2 and we could see 27 dollars very easily. Astounding what effect a couple of days of price action has, I got completely caught up in the bullish PM atmosphere. Respect to Dr Bubb on his beating the buy and hold thread.

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FWIW it's worth I just bought back 1/3 of the silver I swapped for gold in May.

 

But I kept the gold and put some more cash into silver ...

 

The ratio's broken up again. It could stop around 50 or it could go very high. We'll see.

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After much vacillating, late yesterday I sold my entire physical silver position for US Dollars, I got out at $36.4. I am now entirely in cash.

 

Today I see silver down a further 10%, so at the moment it looks like the correct decision, but it's too early to say.

 

Only time will tell.

PD,

You might want to re-enter via Calls.

Maybe SLV Jan.$30 calls, or some-such.

That will leave you with much flexibility

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FWIW it's worth I just bought back 1/3 of the silver I swapped for gold in May.

 

But I kept the gold and put some more cash into silver ...

 

The ratio's broken up again. It could stop around 50 or it could go very high. We'll see.

 

Can see it testing high 50's at least, a nice downtrend line there.

 

Toying with buying some gold with my USD

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Sorry, but I could not resist:

Haha

Fun had...

Rebalancing mostly done, I can revert to...

I don't think we are going straight down to $27, so I have done something else instead...

 

In the end I bought a lower strike - in a Real trade:

 

========

Status Filled at $7.95

Symbol -SLV120121C25

Description CALL (SLV) ISHARES SILVER TR JAN 21 12 $25 (100 SHS)

Action Buy to Open Call

Order Type Limit at $7.95

========

 

BOT: SLV-Jan.$25 calls

 

Now that I have rebalanced the portfolio, I can return to the non-emotional title.

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Astounding what effect a couple of days of price action has, I got completely caught up in the bullish PM atmosphere. Respect to Dr Bubb on his beating the buy and hold thread.

 

Did you buy any gold whilst you were caught up in the bullish atmosphere? If you didn't you weren't really caught up in anything.

 

I would love to see the net performance of Bubb's PM trades since 2008. I doubt he's much further ahead than buy-and-hold, if at all. And if you buy and hold rather than manically trade you can make money in your business or vocation too! So net net you'd be well ahead of Bubb if you bear in mind that trading is his career.

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Fun had...

Rebalancing mostly done, I can revert to...

 

Ha Ha Bubb :) It's kinda fun, this!

I did a spread bet, long silver (30% profit! - I must have been very lucky today. Got in and out at perfect times, it seems.)

 

Later today, I bought some physical with the profits. So I turned the paper games into real metal. Thanks, ppt :)

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