drbubb Posted September 23, 2011 Report Share Posted September 23, 2011 Did you buy any gold whilst you were caught up in the bullish atmosphere? If you didn't you weren't really caught up in anything. I would love to see the net performance of Bubb's PM trades since 2008. I doubt he's much further ahead than buy-and-hold, if at all. And if you buy and hold rather than manically trade you can make money in your business or vocation too! So net net you'd be well ahead of Bubb if you bear in mind that trading is his career. On which assets? The point of the Beating B&H thread is to show: + You can protect price risk effectively with options + There are times when technical indicators give very useful signals + Buy and Hold CAN be beat with a disciplined approach I am not gambling. I am using a very careful approach that everyone who wants a core long exposure to meatls can learn from. The criticism of it has mostly been mostly ill informed, it doesnt examine what I am truly doing. Which is a pity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted September 23, 2011 Report Share Posted September 23, 2011 Did you buy any gold whilst you were caught up in the bullish atmosphere? If you didn't you weren't really caught up in anything. I would love to see the net performance of Bubb's PM trades since 2008. I doubt he's much further ahead than buy-and-hold, if at all. And if you buy and hold rather than manically trade you can make money in your business or vocation too! So net net you'd be well ahead of Bubb if you bear in mind that trading is his career. No physical but I did have a couple of silver trades that got quickly stopped out, one of them very quickly indeed. I did however emotionally lose control. Looking back it was obvious what was going to happen, gold painted a textbook double top on the daily charts even if it might not entirely have been created entirely by natural market forces and market sentiment moved to an extreme positive judging by the posts on this and other threads over here. Most obviously of all, during the big bull run from late August to early September, TV news was full of gold price reports. That in itself should have been a signal for me that a market top was near. Well, all part of the learning experience, and a good chance to buy physical early next week. I am sure that Bubb has made tens of thousands of dollars this week, maybe hundreds of thousands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted September 24, 2011 Report Share Posted September 24, 2011 Interpretations? Biggest One-Day Declines by PercentDate Close 1-day $ Move 1-day % Move 3/17/1980 17.4 -13.35 -43.41% 3/26/1980 15.8 -4.4 -21.78% 9/23/2011 30.10 -6.477 -17.71% 2/28/1983 10.3 -2.2 -17.60% 1/18/1980 40.5 -7.9 -16.32% 4/20/2006 12.525 -1.997 -13.75% 6/13/2006 9.625 -1.44 -13.01% 3/13/1980 25.5 -3.8 -12.97% 10/2/2008 11.12 -1.65 -12.92% 10/20/1987 7.285 -0.995 -12.02% From http://www.cnbc.com/id/44647369 The only two bigger losses than today were in 1980, which was not a great year for silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 24, 2011 Report Share Posted September 24, 2011 I am sure that Bubb has made tens of thousands of dollars this week, maybe hundreds of thousands. Maybe just a Ten or two rather than hundreds. (I said elsewhere: my very small speculative account is up 30% in the last 2-3 weeks) But the best thing was being green when most traders were seeing red. It keeps you in a positive frame of mind, seeking opportunity. Getting hit with losses causes most people to retreat into "bunker mentality". They get shell-shocked and miss trades. (I know, I feel it often enough.) Here's a good podcast on developing a winning mindset: GETTING YOUR MIND RIGHT - Trading psych... Interview by TFNN's David White- Adrienne Toghraie MP3: http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/PTH092111.mp3 Another interview with her by Bob Bailey: http://www.tradingontarget.com/interviews2.html /her website: http://www.tradingontarget.com/about_adrienne.htm Avoid "the cess pool" feeling you get after repeated losses. She talks about that in the Bailey interview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted September 24, 2011 Report Share Posted September 24, 2011 Very interesting thoughts PosDev, at the moment you certainly look to be correct. Could I ask when you started buying the physical? 16th September 2008 i still think we will see $50 this xmas; unless we have a total failure of support at these levels (eg. the 'zone') i have no reason to change my mind On a scale of 1-100 with 100 being absolute certainty that silver was in a bubble... What would you rate the chances as being? PD, You might want to re-enter via Calls. Maybe SLV Jan.$30 calls, or some-such. That will leave you with much flexibility Actually I do not have a broker for options at the moment so even if I wanted to, I couldn't. I'm no expert but I'm a bit concerned for the silver market here since the market is clearly in some form of crash and yet people seem very eager to buy. Does that eagerness point to a complacency? I think it may do. The move down yesterday was much more violent that anything we saw in April/May. I posted this chart back in April; What concerns me is that the previous low (after it crashed before) has been passed. I remember this from the $50-sh peak in silver thread; I find the idea that we are at anything like a 1980 style top completely and utterly totaly inconceivable That's because it is complete nonsense. At tops, no-one wants to believe it is one, and during crashes in markets that are in a bubble, people keep buying all the way down because it looks like such good value compared to the bubble peak. I'm not saying it is or has been, but I'm concerned enough not to want to jump back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 24, 2011 Report Share Posted September 24, 2011 I think this may be the end of the cyclical bull market in silver. As a result of yesterday's drop my NAV dropped by 2.6%. Previously in April, I bought puts on SLV, and sold half of my physical right at the top, I then cashed in the puts between $33.75 and $35, and bought back my physical position at $37. At the time people were rubbishing the idea of it being a top (apart from Bubb). My thinking was that the bull market would continue, but that the price would have to reach and exceed $50 for this to be confirmed to be the case in my mind. Selling after a drop is not typically what you do in markets, however, the meaning of yesterday's price action and the price action in the markets from a macro perspective could be very significant in my opinion. After much vacillating, late yesterday I sold my entire physical silver position for US Dollars, I got out at $36.4. I am now entirely in cash. Today I see silver down a further 10%, so at the moment it looks like the correct decision, but it's too early to say. Only time will tell. I've been looking for this kind of volatility in silver for a long time [ideal for trading but difficult to get on the right side of it]. Gold is correcting back to its long term trend line.... silver should continue to over-correct from here. I reckon both are still in a bull market. Buying in the upper 2os and sitting on for a couple of yaers looks good to me.Shame is I just spemt my US dollar hedge.... on land. The same day silver crashed, which i'd been waiting for for artound a year. Can you believe the timing?? Still have the silver bullion bars [there price is little changed in the kiwi dollar]. looks like any trading from now on will have to be restricted to the gold/ silver ratio.....now 55. If I still had US dollars, I'd be buying the double leveraged silver ETF with silver at around 27...28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted September 24, 2011 Report Share Posted September 24, 2011 Feels like a good chunk of the fall was down to yet another comex margin hike. Fundamentals intact, I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted September 24, 2011 Report Share Posted September 24, 2011 Gold Drops; Silver Falls Off a Cliff Sep 23, 2011 Silver prices collapsed on Friday, dropping by more than 17% at one point. Gold was also down by more than $100 an ounce at its low. A short-term rally should be expected soon, but there is now a certain amount of technical damage that needs to be worked off in the charts. Prices can still go lower. The silver market had a major crash on Friday -- there is simply no other way to put it. Spot prices were down as much as 17.1% or $6.18 an ounce. Gold was damaged as well, but not nearly as much. At its worst, it was down 6.3% or $108.60 an ounce. Both gold and silver traded below previous lows set earlier this year. The huge price drops in silver and gold can only be explained by substantial hedge fund selling that smacks of credit crisis panic. Both of these markets have risen on highly leveraged buying. Once a few overextended funds are forced to sell because of the financial turmoil in Europe, things can go downhill pretty fast. Stops get taken out and this causes more selling, which in turn takes out more stops and leads to more selling. After this, a rally will follow and there should be a test of the low. If it holds, then a sustainable rally can take place. We are not nearly at the point yet. http://www.etfguide.com/research/662/23/Gold-Drops;-Silver-Falls-Off-a-Cliff/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 Sprott Money Temporarily Runs Out of Physical Silver With gold and silver prices plunging, King World News sources are reporting massive physical demand. One example is Sprott Money, which completely ran out of physical silver. Larisa Sprott, President of Sprott Money told KWN, "It's been pretty wild, especially the last three or four days because of the price drop. People are trading in their paper money for gold and silver, but we are seeing more purchases of silver net. In fact the buying has been really skewed in favor of silver, there is tremendous demand." ... To clarify, we may have some client buying a single tube of silver maples, while at the same time, another client is buying $5 million of 100 ounce silver bars or gold maple leafs. The bottom line here is the drawdown in price is creating a tremendous amount of demand." Gold Drops; Silver Falls Off a Cliff Sep 23, 2011 Silver prices collapsed on Friday, dropping by more than 17% at one point. Gold was also down by more than $100 an ounce at its low. A short-term rally should be expected soon, but there is now a certain amount of technical damage that needs to be worked off in the charts. Prices can still go lower. The silver market had a major crash on Friday -- there is simply no other way to put it. Spot prices were down as much as 17.1% or $6.18 an ounce. Gold was damaged as well, but not nearly as much. At its worst, it was down 6.3% or $108.60 an ounce. Both gold and silver traded below previous lows set earlier this year. The huge price drops in silver and gold can only be explained by substantial hedge fund selling that smacks of credit crisis panic. Both of these markets have risen on highly leveraged buying. Once a few overextended funds are forced to sell because of the financial turmoil in Europe, things can go downhill pretty fast. Stops get taken out and this causes more selling, which in turn takes out more stops and leads to more selling. After this, a rally will follow and there should be a test of the low. If it holds, then a sustainable rally can take place. We are not nearly at the point yet. http://www.etfguide....ls-Off-a-Cliff/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 For the record here: As usual you only answer certain parts of my post, what about the above? Can't you see the risk in paper trades currently? Pix, I am already moving back into Silver and SLV in the Beating B&H portfolios. I see the risks, but want to sidestep some of the price risks in precious, when it shoots up too fast. In fact, with one brief exception, I have stayed long 10,000 ounces or shares (either thru Physicals, SLV, or SLV calls) through almost the whole period since I started putting the cash from the Silver top back to work - That's in the Beating B&H portfolios, at least. When you see some Muppets ringing Bells, saying that gold is going to skyrocket, after it already has gone parabolic... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RkDwKb9hcw Then it maybe time to switch to safer Gold plays, like GLD calls. Sept, 9th: Gold is “Dirt Cheap” — Price Could Reach $10,000 per Ounce Faber's a smart guy, and I always pay attention to him. But when others start making big scare headlines around his ideas talking about a 5-fold Gold price increase fro current levels, it may be a warning sign. Faber admits the price of the precious metal may remain volatile; after hitting a new high of $1923.70 on Tuesday, gold has fallen about $100 per ounce. But in the long-term "gold will be very well supported" because of global demographics and the continued debasement of fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar. Compare gold prices to the amount of wealth created in the emerging markets over the last decade and the increase in the monetary base around the world, the price of gold is "relatively low," says Faber. Compare it to the quality of politicians and at $1,800 per ounce gold is "dirt cheap," he half jokes. He won't put a price target on the metal but he does say, "according to some statistics the gold price today should be worth between $6,000 per ounce and $10,000 per ounce." If that's true, then "dirt cheap" might be the right phrase. They didn't headline his comment that "Gold can correct to $1500... $1700." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 The sheeple and the manic traders had a few scary moments over the past few days. Only financial ignoramuses are getting out of physical positions in the midst of the biggest paper money crisis ever. Don't be such a fool. Don't be a headless manic chicken. Now is the time to buy more. Now is the time to maybe swap some gold for silver. Now is the time to buy mining shares. The short of PMs are trying to paint a certain picture in the weekly closing price. Don't fall for it. Just have a look at the usual suspects. Who is short of silver? Who sold you those $30 silver calls 2 years back? Oh yes, these guys have been burning in financial hell and they desperately try to get out. If you're a manic headless chicken, they'll do it on your back. Don't be a manic headless chicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlton Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 ^^ Wise words, G0ldfinger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 The sheeple and the manic traders had a few scary moments over the past few days. Only financial ignoramuses are getting out of physical positions in the midst of the biggest paper money crisis ever. Don't be such a fool. Don't be a headless manic chicken. Now is the time to buy more... Many would agree with you. I am adding some gold, and/or taking profits on my hedges. "Don't be a headless manic chicken" - Are you talking about Buy-to-Holders? And especially those who are geared, and may now panic and sell at low prices? The Buy-to-Holders here may say to you: "Buy more??? With what ?" The Buy and Hedgers, are the big winners on a move like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 The Buy and Hedgers, are the big winners on a move like this. Nice expression that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
planit Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 "Don't be a headless manic chicken" - Are you talking about Buy-to-Holders? I think Goldfinger meant the ones panic selling or getting stopped out at big losses are the manic chickens. The buy to holders are always sensible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 For info... this is for activity on 22-9-2011 Let's see what happens next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppa Pig Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 Many would agree with you. I am adding some gold, and/or taking profits on my hedges. "Don't be a headless manic chicken" - Are you talking about Buy-to-Holders? And especially those who are geared, and may now panic and sell at low prices? The Buy-to-Holders here may say to you: "Buy more??? With what ?" The Buy and Hedgers, are the big winners on a move like this. The Buy and Hedgers, are the big winners on a move like this. big winners. but not as big as the sell then buyers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kapouillax Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 big winners. but not as big as the sell then buyers Which is what I did... But what if I was wrong and the prices went straight the other way (ie. rocket up)? Then I guess the buy&hedgers would still win... And keep their core position. (Or am I missing something there?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppa Pig Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 The sheeple and the manic traders had a few scary moments over the past few days. Only financial ignoramuses are getting out of physical positions in the midst of the biggest paper money crisis ever. Don't be such a fool. Don't be a headless manic chicken. Now is the time to buy more. Now is the time to maybe swap some gold for silver. Now is the time to buy mining shares. The short of PMs are trying to paint a certain picture in the weekly closing price. Don't fall for it. Just have a look at the usual suspects. Who is short of silver? Who sold you those $30 silver calls 2 years back? Oh yes, these guys have been burning in financial hell and they desperately try to get out. If you're a manic headless chicken, they'll do it on your back. Don't be a manic headless chicken. i don't thank you for name calling. i sold my silver earlier in the year in three tranches. i will be buying again very soon. i am sure i will have done the right thing. this is from one of my favorite stories:- altogether it made a considerable sum, over fifty pounds without allowing for the premium on gold in an england plagued by a depreciating paper currency. it is set only weeks before the peace of amiens is broken and the main war with france begins. i do not recall any hyperinflations in england, despite at least one case here of a temporary fiat money. there are precedents for fiat money systems that DO NOT end in a discontinous fashion - i am not suggesting that it is plane sailing either. i have heard many people say that no official fiat paper money system has ever survived. well, given that every country adopts one every now and then, it is just as accurate to state that no official specie money system survives either if you bought gold at the $850 and held it until 2001, you would have lost. ironically, inflation would have done most of the damage to you !! there will be a time to sell gold and silver. i don't know when it will be, but i have been getting a feeling these last few years that is going to be a huge anti-climax! you'll make money, no doubt, but i think it may end with a fizz rather than a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppa Pig Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 Which is what I did... But what if I was wrong and the prices went straight the other way (ie. rocket up)? Then I guess the buy&hedgers would still win... And keep their core position. (Or am I missing something there?) buying and selling are very serious considerations and you would have to accumulate enough weight of evidence. this means you have to forfeit some of your profit, or miss the bottom by a certain amount. options players have to pay for the special instruments they purchase - it costs money to offset risk, no matter how you chose to do it. if you try to get the exact top or bottom, you are likely to miss and shoot yourself in the foot - or worse, lose objectivity of purpose. this is exactly what buy and holders are doing. they think they will know, as if by diving insight, the time to sell. this is a great folly in my opinion, especially as they have had no practice in the interim since they shun technical analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 i have heard many people say that no official fiat paper money system has ever survived. well, given that every country adopts one every now and then, it is just as accurate to state that no official specie money system survives either Specie money systems only fail due to appreciation, not depreciation. Therein lies the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppa Pig Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 Specie money systems only fail due to appreciation, not depreciation. Therein lies the difference yes and no. well, it is a question of semantics i suppose. what i think is that i made a comment that really was a bit pointless and i regret making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 The argument has always been, yes you should make more on the volatility leading up to a crash, but you're unlikely to time your exit with enough precision to beat the buy and hold PM fans, when the music stops. The main issue I see with continually trading when the world hangs on a thread, is you will probably trade one trade too far. I'm not trying to revive this endless debate, but let's find out where we all stand when it all comes crashing down. To speculate at this point is a bit futile, but at least let's put the main arguments out in the open. The contention is, that whilst you might have more money in the bank for the same initial investment, you have to firstly get it out and then convert it to something that holds value and potentially physically in your hand. This might be asking too much in the end... The Buy and Hedgers, are the big winners on a move like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 This isn't true IMO, we all follow it and make our own opinions and certainly you need to follow it to time a purchase. The reality is not acting on a top, but only a bottom. they think they will know, as if by diving insight, the time to sell. this is a great folly in my opinion, especially as they have had no practice in the interim since they shun technical analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 Peppa Pig, on 25 September 2011 - 08:30 PM, said:i have heard many people say that no official fiat paper money system has ever survived. well, given that every country adopts one every now and then, it is just as accurate to state that no official specie money system survives either 50's Quiff Specie money systems only fail due to appreciation, not depreciation. Therein lies the difference as per 50's quiff: specie systems 'fail' but the result is certainly not something you are left holding which is worthless, as is the case for fiat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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