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This is stating the obvious. IR's went sky high.

 

if you bought gold at the $850 and held it until 2001, you would have lost. ironically, inflation would have done most of the damage to you !!

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whilst you might have more money in the bank for the same initial investment, you have to firstly get it out and then convert it to something that holds value and potentially physically in your hand. This might be asking too much in the end...

 

This nicely sums up the main course debate on this site with the conspiracy threads for pudding.....yum,,,,

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The main issue I see with continually trading when the world hangs on a thread, is you will probably trade one trade too far.

100% my sentiment.

 

We are in the biggest financial crisis, the biggest paper money crisis ever, and people throw away their gold and silver, and they say "only for a short time", but during this time they completely rely on and trust in Ben, Jean-Claude, the JPMorgue, and similar.

 

Only a complete nutbag* would do such a thing.

 

(* paper bug)

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yes and no. well, it is a question of semantics i suppose. what i think is that i made a comment that really was a bit pointless and i regret making it.

 

I thought your comment was a bit tongue in cheek! No need for regrets. If you're successfully trading this gold market then more power to you. I don't dispute that professional traders or other skilled amateurs are capable of doing so.

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I have taken the opportunity to swap some gold to silver today via GM, It seems a good way to handle the swings in the market to me. I have done 3 swaps now and each time it has worked out well for me, hopefully this time will as well.

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I have taken the opportunity to swap some gold to silver today via GM, It seems a good way to handle the swings in the market to me. I have done 3 swaps now and each time it has worked out well for me, hopefully this time will as well.

 

Just checked the ratio myself too today. At 55, it's still a bit low for me. Anything over 80 is an easy call.

 

EDIT: wooo.. 6.4m Oz found in a shipwreck!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15061868

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bit early for liking too. I saw overnight that the ratio went over sixty and I was prepared to step in today if I saw some excessive sentiment, but alas, as I have said in another thread, the bulls have caused me to step back.

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Just wondering if we were close to the bottom in silver today? Peak to trough falls from March to October 2008 were about 55%. Peak to trough April to Sept 2011 have so far been 48% as the market factors in margin increases, and worries about hedge fund and bank busts and anticipates a bout of deflation. Perhaps Bubb and RH who have been anticipating falls to somewhere around 25 and 27 have called the bottom and the 300 Day Moving Average will mark the best buying opportunity?

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/09/20110926_GREECE%20chart.png

 

If I was betting on one of the 5 outcomes in the Greek flow chart link it would be moral hazard as leaders often choose the short term path of least resistance. This is probably the most favourable outcome for the silver price in the next few weeks - otherwise the other options may imply further price weakness while fear rules the market. Paradoxically this fear may prove good news for the gold price.

 

Lev

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For the record here:

 

Pix,

I am already moving back into Silver and SLV in the Beating B&H portfolios.

 

I see the risks, but want to sidestep some of the price risks in precious, when it shoots up too fast.

 

In fact, with one brief exception, I have stayed long 10,000 ounces or shares (either thru Physicals,

SLV, or SLV calls) through almost the whole period since I started putting the cash from the Silver

top back to work - That's in the Beating B&H portfolios, at least.

You have chosen still to ignore what I am talking about, so I will lay it out for you again as clearly as I possibly can.

 

There is a massive financial crisis going on, the banks are all actually bankrupt and money is being printed all over the place to stop the meltdown. Just say Greece goes into default and the EFSF does not get their new 2 trillion dollar rescue together, the contagion would quickly spread on to Italian and Spanish debt. This would lead to a derivative induced nightmare with banks going bust all over the place. Holding paper instruments on precious metals would leave you in a very risky position, you would have massive counter part risk. That is what owning physical precious metals gets around, they are no one else's liability.

 

So in short while the financial system is at a point of maximum risk holding paper PM (shares or options in unallocated metal) opens you up to the risk of the thing you should be buying physical metal to protect you from. Yes sure you will be able to make more fiat money, until it all breaks at which point you will lose everything.

 

Unallocated paper PM's are subject to massive counter party risk, especially in the largest financial crisis the world has ever seen. I have no idea as to why you continue to ignore this fact, is it purely greed?

This is the last time I am going to talk about this on here as I have said it many many times before.

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Just wondering if we were close to the bottom in silver today? Peak to trough falls from March to October 2008 were about 55%. Peak to trough April to Sept 2011 have so far been 48% as the market factors in margin increases, and worries about hedge fund and bank busts and anticipates a bout of deflation. Perhaps Bubb and RH who have been anticipating falls to somewhere around 25 and 27 have called the bottom and the 300 Day Moving Average will mark the best buying opportunity?

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/09/20110926_GREECE%20chart.png

 

If I was betting on one of the 5 outcomes in the Greek flow chart link it would be moral hazard as leaders often choose the short term path of least resistance. This is probably the most favourable outcome for the silver price in the next few weeks - otherwise the other options may imply further price weakness while fear rules the market. Paradoxically this fear may prove good news for the gold price.

 

Lev

Yep, the 20s looks like a good buy. Was it mentioned that silver dipped down to 26 already? It would be interesting to look at the 2008 chart of silver to see how long it took to bottom. I doubt there is any huge rush here.

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Which is what I did... But what if I was wrong and the prices went straight the other way (ie. rocket up)? Then I guess the buy&hedgers would still win... And keep their core position. (Or am I missing something there?)

The asssumption that the US dollar was simply going to roll over has put a lot of balance. Factis, the dollar will remain strong at times creating huge volatility and corrections. Of course, this was all predictable, and precious metals remain in a bull market.... just a volatile one.

 

The way I hedged was to pile into gold [and silver] bullion assets early on, and then hedge with dollars. The dollar hedge can be increased by trading the volatility of silver. Ideally, if you get one trade right, the gains in your dollar hedge may even match the gains in bullion.

 

A lot have been confused by thinking of the dollar and gold as utterly contrary [each the anti-thesis of the other]. Though at times they will move contrarily, they are actually the two most desired forms of liquidity and accordingly are complementary "investments".

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I have taken the opportunity to swap some gold to silver today via GM, It seems a good way to handle the swings in the market to me. I have done 3 swaps now and each time it has worked out well for me, hopefully this time will as well.

 

Likewise. Although one should take onboard how GM do it. The exchange is fixed at 12pm - london fixing. My brain was struggling to put 2 + 2 together when i put in my order.

 

When I got to work the prices were such that the ratio was about 63, my first target on the ratio being 60, I put an order in. Though thinking about it 5 secs after pressing execute....the volatility in the next 5hrs could mean the prices could be anywhere! Gt about 57 in the end so could have been worse.

 

Good chance we see higher numbers on the ratio, so might kick out the silver at 40 if we see a sharp rebound.

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Likewise. Although one should take onboard how GM do it. The exchange is fixed at 12pm - london fixing. My brain was struggling to put 2 + 2 together when i put in my order.

 

When I got to work the prices were such that the ratio was about 63, my first target on the ratio being 60, I put an order in. Though thinking about it 5 secs after pressing execute....the volatility in the next 5hrs could mean the prices could be anywhere! Gt about 57 in the end so could have been worse.

 

Good chance we see higher numbers on the ratio, so might kick out the silver at 40 if we see a sharp rebound.

That's a bit frustrating.

You could have (probably very inexpensively) taken on a spreadbet to fix the ratio at the time of your order. Of course, you would no have had any upside possibility either from the ratio going further in your direction.. Never mind.

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Likewise. Although one should take onboard how GM do it. The exchange is fixed at 12pm - london fixing. My brain was struggling to put 2 + 2 together when i put in my order.

 

When I got to work the prices were such that the ratio was about 63, my first target on the ratio being 60, I put an order in. Though thinking about it 5 secs after pressing execute....the volatility in the next 5hrs could mean the prices could be anywhere! Gt about 57 in the end so could have been worse.

 

Good chance we see higher numbers on the ratio, so might kick out the silver at 40 if we see a sharp rebound.

 

That is only true if you are over a certain amount, I tend to keep mine within my CGT allowance so usually below the maximum amount,

 

Purchases larger than 1,000.000oz ($33,901.43 at the current spot rate) will be based on the London Silver Fix on 2011-Sep-28.

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longsil-1.gif

 

Log chart shows a good chance of silver falling further.... perhaps only half the ways so far.

 

 

 

silshort.gif

 

If the previous crash is anything to go by, it may take a few more months for silver to bottom. Target to buy 25.... target to sell 100.

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I suspect that this subject will already have been covered in the past, but does anyone know if 1oz silver Britannia's are CGT exempt like gold Britannia's and sovereigns as they are considered specie ?

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I'm not aware of any British silver coins that are CGT excempt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I suspect that this subject will already have been covered in the past, but does anyone know if 1oz silver Britannia's are CGT exempt like gold Britannia's and sovereigns as they are considered specie ?

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I'm not aware of any British silver coins that are CGT exempt.

 

I suspect that this subject will already have been covered in the past, but does anyone know if 1oz silver Britannia's are CGT exempt like gold Britannia's and sovereigns as they are considered specie ?

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longsil-1.gif

 

Log chart shows a good chance of silver falling further.... perhaps only half the ways so far.

 

 

 

silshort.gif

 

If the previous crash is anything to go by, it may take a few more months for silver to bottom. Target to buy 25.... target to sell 100.

There is little point trying to use a monthly chart to find a bottom. You say a target to buy of $25, I say you have missed your chance again at $26. The current situation is nothing like the liquidity crisis in '08. This has just been completely manufactured with margin hikes in a falling market as usual.

 

If you start to learn about the bullion bank cartels modus operandi you won't be permanently sat on the sidelines looking for lower entry points.

 

20110928-prkykq9sf1314dmhnuf15cy5t2.jpg

 

 

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Unallocated paper PM's are subject to massive counter party risk, especially in the largest financial crisis the world has ever seen. I have no idea as to why you continue to ignore this fact, is it purely greed?[/size]

I think I have demonstrated to anyone's satisfaction that the PRICE RISK in Buy & Hold

has thus far been massively higher than the purely theoretical risk that you discuss.

 

Have you noticed that I have slowly been building up Physical Silver in these portfolios,

and before long I expect to be left with:

 

+ 10,000 oz. of Physical Silver (matching the Buy & Hold portfolio)

+ Some calls on SLV and other traded instruments

+ Plenty of cash

 

With that mix, I will never be at risk of falling so far that my portfolio will be as bad off as B&H.

 

By focussing on a theoretical risk, you have been blindsided by the price risk

=== ===

 

Today I have added:

 

SLV.Jan$25 calls : x 1,000 at $6.85 -

(this matches a real trade done today in one of my trading portfolios)

 

Yesterday, I sold some higher strike SLV calls, that were no longer needed

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