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YES!

 

I noticed this on the silver miners etf I watch sil last week. in fact, the charts look very alike with the double right shoulder.

 

I am disappointed silver itself did not break down today along with what appears to be the beginning of the end for the broader markets. but I remain convinced that it will go hard for silver ultimately. I live in hope :-)

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I'm hearing rumors central banks were selling, how odd...

 

 

 

mentioning no names, but I am somewhat surprised to hear industry professionals in the metals sector declare that they do not know who the sellers are, other than hedge funds

 

 

er, the miners maybe?

 

duh.

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Oops I thought I was on the gold thread... scrub that last post!

 

 

 

sorry, I was really talking about silver, as ever. central banks don't have any silver.

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Has anyone else noted that the resistance area for Gold is now around $1650-1670.

 

That's very near to Jim Sinclair's big $1650 level. Perhaps he could see the future afterall.

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Has anyone else noted that the resistance area for Gold is now around $1650-1670.

 

That's very near to Jim Sinclair's big $1650 level. Perhaps he could see the future afterall.

 

 

Yes previous support seems to have now become resistance following the fall to US$1530 and rally from. Deleveraging and margin hikes seem to have played their part. I now expect gold to trades sideways to slightly down this period of deleveraging with important support at 200MA.

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Has anyone else noted that the resistance area for Gold is now around $1650-1670.

 

That's very near to Jim Sinclair's big $1650 level. Perhaps he could see the future afterall.

As in "back to the future" kind of thing?

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Yes previous support seems to have now become resistance following the fall to US$1530 and rally from. Deleveraging and margin hikes seem to have played their part. I now expect gold to trades sideways to slightly down this period of deleveraging with important support at 200MA.

Silver back below 30. Just want to see one more good push lower!! :D

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look again mate. huge rally last minute. I just can't keep up.

Jesus Christ, I went to dinner thinking about buying some December silver calls only to find they'd gone up XX% when I got back. Bummer!

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"Better late than never" applies to some on here too. :)

 

6 months late isn't all that much on an over 10-year time span.

 

That's very near to Jim Sinclair's big $1650 level. Perhaps he could see the future afterall.

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I don't own any silver right now, only gold. I used GoldMoney for years, after initially starting with Bullionvault. I prefer GoldMoney since you can lock in a fixed price at spot when you sell (depends on how much you want to sell though). On Bullionvault, if a market event caused liquidity to dry up when you wanted to buy or sell, you would just have to wait until someone becomes available to take the other side of your trade.

 

I've also used PSLV, and have traded options on SLV. PSLV is really worth watching since there is a premium built into the price, it represents actual physical metal. So, buy it when the premium is low and sell when the premium spikes. Premium is very high right now at 18.26%.

 

More at http://sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/

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Jesus Christ, I went to dinner thinking about buying some December silver calls only to find they'd gone up XX% when I got back. Bummer!

 

frustrating isn't it. but making money was never easy. i do not think this constitutes a reversal - a tradable rally for many, evidently, but not me. i am not into pennies on dollars. i am into dollars on dollars and will wait.

 

take a look at SIL breakaway gap down at the beginning of the slide and now what appears to be a reversal day. i have this text book that depicts a dead cat bounce almost identically :)

 

i am itching to get back on board and so i suppose are many others. it is not surprising therefore if we see attempts to get this thing moving again by restless trigger fingers. i think the real bottom will be very classic in appearance - ie, a drawn out affair with an average true range that is quiet, it is currently at 7% of mean where normal seems to be around 3%.

 

i am starting a book in which i will enter quotes that capture my attention. the first entry is from Thomas J Smith

 

Two things are needed for a bottoming process to take hold, time and price. V bottoms rarely happen

 

we have yet had neither from what i can see!

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mentioning no names, but I am somewhat surprised to hear industry professionals in the metals sector declare that they do not know who the sellers are, other than hedge funds

 

 

er, the miners maybe?

 

duh.

Given that many miners have committed to strictly limit their hedging that is not such an obvious (duh) answer.

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Given that many miners have committed to strictly limit their hedging that is not such an obvious (duh) answer.

i don't see that hedging has anything to do with it. the miners are producing it and bringing it to market constantly - regardless of what price they already agreed to sell it for, it is new supply brought to market all the time.

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i don't see that hedging has anything to do with it. the miners are producing it and bringing it to market constantly - regardless of what price they already agreed to sell it for, it is new supply brought to market all the time.

Miner production is relatively constant and predictable. Hence, selling by miners isn't going to move the market significantly unless they engage in significant hedging. If the miners were willing to sell forward a few year's worth of production in a couple days that would move markets, but most of them don't engage in long-term hedging. Thus, miner selling is an inadequate answer.

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If you have looked for weeks, now may be a good time to revisit the Beating Buy&Hold spreadsheet:

 

REDESIGN of BeatingBH

 

I am continually redesigning the Spreadsheet.

If you haven't seen it for a while, What do you think ?

 

WEEKLY Spreadsheet : http://tinyurl.com/beatingBH

 

Is it easier to understand what I am doing ?

 

BTW, to examine each portfolio in the spreadsheet:

+ Buy&Hld :: Buy and Hold portfolio of 10,000 Silver oz., a benchmark

+ Alt.Port#1 : Alternative Portfolio 1 - "more aggressive"

+ Alt.Port#2 : Alternative Portfolio 2 - "less aggressive"

+ Average - : The Average of #1&2

= you need to read the spreadsheet figures in Columns ====

 

My objective in managing these portfolios is two-fold:

1/ To increase the Out-performance in absolute dollars

2/ To show a growing "Ratio to B&H" - ie Average NAV-to-B&H NAV

3/ To gradually move into a Core position held in Physical Silver*

 

*At what I think are possible peak ranges, I may shift parts of that Core position back into Cash + ITM SLV Calls, to limit the exposure to sharp pullbacks. But normally, I would only do that after a parabolic move up.

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looked at the silver chart today. trying to make sense of the correction by looking at it logarithmically....

 

it looks to me that (so far) we are experiencing a 2006 type pull back and not 2008. the 2006 move that followed the 'cup' line, fell back approx 80% before tootling along again:

 

2006_ag_correction-1.gif

 

 

now look at 2011:

 

2011_ag_correction-1.gif

 

 

here's a chart with 2008 & 2004 as well:

 

bull-breakers.gif

 

 

here's a follow up to that last chart:

 

bull-breakersii.gif

 

what constitutes an ass fallout? well i would say where the complete bull move is wiped out e.g. 2008

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Dont watch this thread often so apologies if has already been posted - dont think the Chairman in question expected this to be circulated round the blogshpere !!

 

http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2011/09/20/gary-gensler-chairman-of-the-cftc-on-was-information-leaked-on-cme-silver-margin-hikes/

Gary Gensler, Chairman of the CFTC on “Was Information Leaked on CME Silver Margin Hikes?”

 

We have long been befuddled by the trends in commodities where we will see a sudden drop in the prices of Gold and/or Silver right before an announcement is made regarding an increase or decrease in the margin requirement........

 

With that in mind, we have wondered if there is some level of leakage of when margin requirements will be changed that allows for people to front run this information. As I recently attending the Bloomberg Market’s 50 Summit in New York, I happened to run into the Chairman of the CFTC, Gary Gensler. I asked him about this and have uploaded the audio for you to hear his response.

 

It is a very interesting point that he makes about Governmental vs. non-governmental data release. Almost as if it’s the wild west when it comes to non-governmental (Price Discovery) information i.e. crop reports, margin requirements, etc….

 

Is he actually saying: If someone wants to leak that data for price discovery then by all means? I suppose the question really should be: do people who have positions on in whatever particular market they are trading in get notices prior to releasing it to the public? Meaning, that those with positions in the index or commodity have the ability to trade first prior to the public knowing about it.

 

 

 

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i'm still looking for an ass fallout, as you put it. the rally has stalled and we've been churning here for the last week. this implies, i think, that another move is coming. up or down? given the trend is down, i am putting my chips in that direction. we'll see.

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i'm still looking for an ass fallout, as you put it. the rally has stalled and we've been churning here for the last week. this implies, i think, that another move is coming. up or down? given the trend is down, i am putting my chips in that direction. we'll see.

 

i'm keeping my eye (now belatedly) on ag/gbp

 

agsterlinglog.gif

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