G0ldfinger Posted October 25, 2011 Report Share Posted October 25, 2011 Maybe the lows have been in now, and we go towards $50 here? I wouldn't bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 25, 2011 Report Share Posted October 25, 2011 Maybe the lows have been in now, and we go towards $50 here? I wouldn't bet against it. Thats what Im thinking. Im glad I stocked up on ounce maples at £25 when CID had a special over the weekend (please don't remind me that they would have been cheaper in Germany!) When silver takes off again I think we will be going through $50, or do you think this will be the second out of three attempts at $50, like gold took three goes at $1000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 Maybe the lows have been in now, and we go towards $50 here? I wouldn't bet against it. One more more downdraft, and another month might do it. I wouldn't bet on it but. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 Given similar circumstances to 2008 it seems quite possible this correction is the first shoulder in a large inverse head and shoulders correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppa Pig Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 Given similar circumstances to 2008 it seems quite possible this correction is the first shoulder in a large inverse head and shoulders correction. i'm worried after yesterdays action in silver. i perhaps have missed the boat now, but that is my fault - i watched the correction but was not satisfied with what was on offer by the time our own markets opened up on the morning after the $26 spike down. so near and now so far. i own only some gold now and a great bundle of usdollars that appear to be going down the crapper! hmm. will stick it out for a few more weeks and see what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 i own only some gold now and a great bundle of usdollars You say that like it's a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppa Pig Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 You say that like it's a bad thing. well, it is from my perspective. i traded out of my silver and wanted to get back in. i traded out of some of my gold too. i wanted to buy silver bullion, gdxj and sil. now i am feeling very disappointed at a missed opportunity. i'm buggered if i'll chase this market when its running. i am hoping for a re test over the next few weeks. could happen. if it does i hope, as jim rogers puts it, that i'm smart enough to buy this time, and not miss out on a second chance should one arrive. ps i certainly have some sympathy with the notion in the post above that this may well be a left shoulder. the broad economic data is not quite so sanguine as the stock market appears to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 i own only some gold now and a great bundle of usdollars that appear to be going down the crapper! hmm. will stick it out for a few more weeks and see what transpires. That sound a very painful position you have put yourself in, sitting on a large bundle of dollars. That is the thing with attempting to trade things you often miss the low and then are sat holding something which you shouldn't be waiting for a pullback that doesn't happen. To me silver is still very cheap, $33.5 will seem as cheap as $26 when it gets to $40 over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 well, it is from my perspective. i traded out of my silver and wanted to get back in. i traded out of some of my gold too. i wanted to buy silver bullion, gdxj and sil. now i am feeling very disappointed at a missed opportunity. i'm buggered if i'll chase this market when its running. i am hoping for a re test over the next few weeks. could happen. if it does i hope, as jim rogers puts it, that i'm smart enough to buy this time, and not miss out on a second chance should one arrive. ps i certainly have some sympathy with the notion in the post above that this may well be a left shoulder. the broad economic data is not quite so sanguine as the stock market appears to be. My take on when to sell... "The Treatise" as I call it.... I never finished it. (Disclaimer: I swapped silver for gold a while back, and also bought some silver with fresh money around $30 and $27, and some gold around $1680, iirc) A Gold Investors’ Treatise Some day, you will feel it is time to sell your gold. Whilst that time appears to be far off at the moment, some time it will come, and you may be very tempted. It will not be easy to do; holding gold has been part of your life for possibly many years and it will probably feel very strange, an almost ‘naked’ feeling to be without the security blanket which has slavishly served and insured you and your family for the entire period you possessed it. I think it is important now to put in writing thoughts on WHY you bought the gold. WHAT you expect may happen in the future. CRITERIA to be met before a sale, such as reserve currency money supply and IRs, gold/silver standard etc. THE RISKS pertaining to other assets you may wish to purchase (e.g. tax!, non-portability etc.) CONSIDER that the authorities will go after any visible savings and means-test items like council tax benefit, Jobseekers allowance etc. ALSO to consider buying PUT options- cheap insurance without having to part with physical metal. Worst case; you write off the money you use to buy the puts. Leverage is ok for Puts! It is my aim to provide a list of hurdles which you should honestly be able to clear in favour of selling any gold before you do it. Use Shadowstats! Guidotti-Greenspan rule Short term (Bund?) IRs > M3 by at least X Merrill: the supply of money in all currency areas is increasing a lot faster than the supply gold. So the weak dollar is pushing gold prices higher in USD, and the increase in global money supply is driving gold prices up in every currency. Broad money in a number of key currencies expanded 7 to 10 times faster than gold supply in 2008. This trend is poised continue over the next 18 months. If EM CBs come to the conclusion that gold at the current prices is better value and offers lower political risk than government bonds denominated in EUR or USD, reserve diversification into gold will continue. We estimate that any given increase physical gold demand of 100t ($3.6bn) could push prices up by $45/oz. With EM FX reserves at nearly $6trn, it will not take much to send gold prices higher. the whole point of having a fiat currency is to be able to debase it when the economic conditions require it The following is a most compelling reason to keep your wealth in gold. Most global banks are still unsafe, warns S&P Standard & Poor’s has given warning that nearly all of the world’s big banks lack sufficient capital to cover trading and investment exposure, risking further downgrades over the next 18 months unless they move swiftly to beef up their defences. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Published: 12:02AM GMT 24 Nov 2009 Every single bank in Japan, the US, Germany, Spain, and Italy included in S&P’s list of 45 global lenders fails the 8pc safety level under the agency’s risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio. Most fall woefully short. The most vulnerable are Mizuho Financial (2.0), Citigroup (2.1), UBS (2.2), Sumitomo Mitsui (3.5), Mitsubishi (4.9), Allied Irish (5.0), DZ Deutsche Zentral (5.3), Danske Bank (5.4), BBVA (5.4), Bank of Ireland (6.2), Bank of America (5.8), Deutsche Bank (6.1), Caja de Ahorros Barcelona (6.2), and UniCredit (6.3). While some banks may look healthy under normal Tier 1 and leverage targets, critics claim these measures can be highly misleading since they fail to discriminate between high-risk and low-risk uses of leverage. The system failed to pick up the danger signals before the financial crisis. The supposedly moderate leverage of US banks in 2007 proved to be a spectacularly useless indicator. S&P has shifted to a tougher code. It is less tolerant of hybrid capital – a liability rather than an asset, and no defence in a crunch – and insists that banks must quadruple capital put aside to cover trading desks. Private equity exposure will be treated more harshly. Interesting post: DON’T LET THIS BE YOU! http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=131218&view=findpost&p=2266004 AvidFan 7:33pm 26th Nov 2009; GOLD@ 1193 (GBP723.00) /Oz.Genuinely pleased for all those that bought gold - including those that were so PI55ED off with the state of affairs a few years ago, it was all or nothing at $550 an ounce. I was buying at between £275 and £330 and at one point owned a fair amount - I won't say how much. I was neither a gold bull or a bear, I was just scared. And at the time I became aware of the reasons for owning gold (early 2005), I wanted in but was too nervous to buy with my life's savings. If I'd have held on to this point, I could have literally retired. As it is now, I'm sitting in sterling earning 5% and watching my entire life's work be destroyed by politicians and central bankers. This really is just about the cherry on top of my miserable fuc*ing life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppa Pig Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 That sound a very painful position you have put yourself in, sitting on a large bundle of dollars. That is the thing with attempting to trade things you often miss the low and then are sat holding something which you shouldn't be waiting for a pullback that doesn't happen. To me silver is still very cheap, $33.5 will seem as cheap as $26 when it gets to $40 over the next few weeks. yes. but not quite as painful as thinking you own something worth nearly $50 and then suddenly it being worth only $30 the point of my 'trading' as you put it, was to avoid catastrophic loss (which $50 to $30 certainly is) and, by consequence to avoid holding the thing once it has completed its bull market. it is all well to talk about buy and hold, but one day the bull market will end and you will have to make the same sort of decision traders make on a daily basis. the difference is that you will not have acquired any practise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 yes. but not quite as painful as thinking you own something worth nearly $50 and then suddenly it being worth only $30 the point of my 'trading' as you put it, was to avoid catastrophic loss (which $50 to $30 certainly is) and, by consequence to avoid holding the thing once it has completed its bull market. it is all well to talk about buy and hold, but one day the bull market will end and you will have to make the same sort of decision traders make on a daily basis. the difference is that you will not have acquired any practise! Yes, the diffculty is finding that balance between holding enough bullion, and also holding enough of a hedge, where no anxiety is held in whatever outcome. I guess this will differ for every individual. For myself, I feel comfortable with the amount of core gold and silver I hold already, so that if I'm unable to buy further silver with the hedge, in order to increase the hedge, I can easily live with the consequences. I can live with not buying again, even though I think there may be a good chance of doing so. That said, I could also live with seeing bullion crash again. early days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 yes. but not quite as painful as thinking you own something worth nearly $50 and then suddenly it being worth only $30 the point of my 'trading' as you put it, was to avoid catastrophic loss (which $50 to $30 certainly is) and, by consequence to avoid holding the thing once it has completed its bull market. it is all well to talk about buy and hold, but one day the bull market will end and you will have to make the same sort of decision traders make on a daily basis. the difference is that you will not have acquired any practise! The volatility in silver is shocking; it's been CRAZY lately, but to be fair that's why I own it in part. I *like* the volatility. It gained massively vs. gold until May, then gold gained vs. silver (a new buying opportunity)... My advice is to invest in silver only 'what you can put there and simply not think about at all until an extreme is reached' (say vs. gold, or stocks, or whatever your 'reserve' asset is..). I sleep very easy with ~100% in PMs, 20% in Ag, 80% Au. That assignment will be different for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 yes. but not quite as painful as thinking you own something worth nearly $50 and then suddenly it being worth only $30 the point of my 'trading' as you put it, was to avoid catastrophic loss (which $50 to $30 certainly is) and, by consequence to avoid holding the thing once it has completed its bull market. it is all well to talk about buy and hold, but one day the bull market will end and you will have to make the same sort of decision traders make on a daily basis. the difference is that you will not have acquired any practise! It is only painful if you need the cash now the amount of ounces I own has only increased during this correction, so really it is a welcome buying opportunity. The fiat value of the metals I own isn't very important to me, more the number of ounces. I want to have the most possible ounces by the end of this bull market and don't really care how much they are worth in a fiat currency, as I don't need access to the funds to buy something and won't need for a while yet. We are miles away from the final top in this bull run, why I am just in accumulation mode rather than sell mode. There are plenty of indicators out there which will tell you when this bull run is approaching the end. I have taken advantage of the giant smackdown swapping gold to silver at 57 on the ratio which has already proved the right thing to do with the ratio at 51.5 today. I think holding metal is much better than being stuck holding fiat, waiting for correction which doesn't come, in the current times of quantitative easing and bailouts. I have seen numerous times during my posting on forums during this bull run people thinking they are smart and selling on a pullback, only to be stuck holding dollars waiting for a pullback as the metal takes off (just ask romans holiday). BTW I have been practising for years, so won't be something new I can promise you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 26, 2011 Report Share Posted October 26, 2011 I sleep very easy with ~100% in PMs, 20% in Ag, 80% Au. So do I. I worry when I have an accumulation of fiat in the bank so I'm glad I bought some silver on Saturday and I do not regret at all not selling silver earlier in the year. The previous peak to $50 will look small in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 I sleep very easy with ~100% in PMs, 20% in Ag, 80% Au. That assignment will be different for everyone. Well I generally do sleep rather well but might not after reading that! I'm 40% in gold (physical and equities) right now, the rest in USD. Your comment sounds all too complacent. Can I ask, what are you going to do if you are wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well I generally do sleep rather well but might not after reading that! I'm 40% in gold (physical and equities) right now, the rest in USD. Your comment sounds all too complacent. Can I ask, what are you going to do if you are wrong? Thing is, I am not speculating. This is likely a retirement investment for me (I am ~30 years away from retirement). It's the 3rd pillar to me, because I own my home and contribute to an 'ok' final salary pension, which, if all's well, should perform ok. However I believe the pension obligations will be defaulted on either by inflation or outright failure, so the gold is the counterbalance. My aim is simply to get as many ounces as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 The first part of your answer is a denial that you are speculating. Whenever someone denies something that they haven't even been accused of, that's when you know it's true. You are speculating that; The price of gold will continue to rise for 30 years. More than that the government won't introduce a 90% tax on gold profits, restrict it's sale or purchase, or make it flat out illegal to own making criminals our of all the gold bugs. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm saying that when people are very certain of an investment, speculation or trade outcome it makes me very concerned if I have a similar position on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 The first part of your answer is a denial that you are speculating. Whenever someone denies something that they haven't even been accused of, that's when you know it's true. You are speculating that; The price of gold will continue to rise for 30 years. More than that the government won't introduce a 90% tax on gold profits, restrict it's sale or purchase, or make it flat out illegal to own making criminals our of all the gold bugs. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm saying that when people are very certain of an investment, speculation or trade outcome it makes me very concerned if I have a similar position on. But should you really assess your portfolio allocation based on the opinions of a few blokes on a gold bug forum? Doesn't sound like a good snapshot of mass psychology to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 The first part of your answer is a denial that you are speculating. Whenever someone denies something that they haven't even been accused of, that's when you know it's true. You are speculating that; The price of gold will continue to rise for 30 years. More than that the government won't introduce a 90% tax on gold profits, restrict it's sale or purchase, or make it flat out illegal to own making criminals our of all the gold bugs. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm saying that when people are very certain of an investment, speculation or trade outcome it makes me very concerned if I have a similar position on. No, I am not speculating that the price of gold will rise for 30 years; in fact i HOPE it drops (in real terms). That way, the pension, house, civil situation etc. will all be ok, and i just need to pop down to the local jeweller every month to offload a coin and decide where I'm going on holiday. If the gov introduces a 90% tax on gold profits or some such measure, my gold is going to India with me, where I will take out a long holiday and maybe a collateralised loan which i will of course default on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 But should you really assess your portfolio allocation based on the opinions of a few blokes on a gold bug forum? No, certainly not. You need to look at a wide range of aspects. Doesn't sound like a good snapshot of mass psychology to me. Definitely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 If the gov introduces a 90% tax on gold profits or some such measure, my gold is going to India with me, ... How would you do that without them noticing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 How would you do that without them noticing? Not saying, but i do have a plan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geisaver Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thing is, I am not speculating. This is likely a retirement investment for me (I am ~30 years away from retirement). It's the 3rd pillar to me, because I own my home and contribute to an 'ok' final salary pension, which, if all's well, should perform ok. However I believe the pension obligations will be defaulted on either by inflation or outright failure, so the gold is the counterbalance. My aim is simply to get as many ounces as possible. Can someone with 3 pillars also be 100% PMs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 Can someone with 3 pillars also be 100% PMs? Well, I need somewhere to live and I have no control over the investments in my pension; neither do i have any control over pension scheme changes (goalpost-moving). I am ~100% PM for what I control and don't 'need'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 27, 2011 Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well, I need somewhere to live and I have no control over the investments in my pension; neither do i have any control over pension scheme changes (goalpost-moving). I am ~100% PM for what I control and don't 'need'. That's how it is over here too. Although, I had control over taking my UK pension claims (when I abandoned ship) and putting them into a SIPP with GoldMoney, so I turned that into bullion too. By doing this, I have essentially already added another 50% of my contribution time in service in comparison to just leaving the claims dormant. Gold is literally "working" for me... EDIT: WAIT, I don't own property, I rent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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