SILVER

[geisaver]

Well, I need somewhere to live and I have no control over the investments in my pension; neither do i have any control over pension scheme changes (goalpost-moving).

I am ~100% PM for what I control and don't 'need'.

 

If someone had owned a £300k house outright for 3 or 4 years and put their spare £15k cash into PMs, plus some or all of their spare recent income, would they be 100% PMs?

[electroweak]

If someone had owned a £300k house outright for 3 or 4 years and put their spare £15k cash into PMs, plus some or all of their spare recent income, would they be 100% PMs?

I guess it's definition. Maybe I am just thinking differently, but I don't think it's right to count my home as a financial asset, but yes, to keep the rain off (and it fails sometimes at that!). It's a financial asset only in the sense that it lets 'me work for me', and not a landlord.

 

My PMs probably are comparable to the house value, just a guess.

 

 

EDIT:

That's how it is over here too. Although, I had control over taking my UK pension claims (when I abandoned ship) and putting them into a SIPP with GoldMoney, so I turned that into bullion too. By doing this, I have essentially already added another 50% of my contribution time in service in comparison to just leaving the claims dormant. Gold is literally "working" for me...

EDIT: WAIT, I don't own property, I rent.

I think i have you to thank for my current position 'overweight' PMs as a counterbalance to trusting the system. It's not overweight when you factor in future earnings (could lose my job next year, we'll see!).

I just feel happier owning my home even if it halves in value (or even more). That's just me.

[geisaver]

I guess it's definition. Maybe I am just thinking differently, but I don't think it's right to count my home as a financial asset, but yes, to keep the rain off (and it fails sometimes at that!). It's a financial asset only in the sense that it lets 'me work for me', and not a landlord.

 

My PMs probably are comparable to the house value, just a guess.

 

Yes it's definition. A lot of people would say your assets are now allocated 50% property and 50% PMs. Depending on when you bought the PMs your asset allocation could have been a much lower percentage in PMs.

[electroweak]

Yes it's definition. A lot of people would say your assets are now allocated 50% property and 50% PMs. Depending on when you bought the PMs your asset allocation could have been a much lower percentage in PMs.

Apart from my home and pension, I have been practically all-in since early 2007, and prior to that (2004-5?) never below 50% of disposables.

[shawth]

Apart from my home and pension, I have been practically all-in since early 2007, and prior to that (2004-5?) never below 50% of disposables.

 

I consider myself to be 100% in pm's and I own a house. I took out a 95% mortgage in 2005 and rode the prices up to 2007 and then I think they have come off by about 10%. However, since buying the house I have moved onto a tracker which runs at 0.5% above base rates. I pay £200 in interest per month, yet if I wnted to rent my house it would cost me nearly £1000.

 

My argument is that you need to put a roof over your head, and so far, buying has been much much cheaper than renting. With rents going up and no signs of interest hikes I know I am much better off. The money I have saved in rent has more than offset the lost opportunity of investing my original 5% + stamp dury and fees in pm's!

[romans holiday]

My argument is that you need to put a roof over your head, and so far, buying has been much much cheaper than renting. With rents going up and no signs of interest hikes I know I am much better off. The money I have saved in rent has more than offset the lost opportunity of investing my original 5% + stamp dury and fees in pm's!

Yes, buying property isn't just a purely economic calculation. There are real world circumstances trumping mere monetary considerations.... chief amongst which has to be the basic need of shelter, and the limitation of time.

 

I just cashed in some bullion to buy property.... probably to prove to myself I was no miser. That said, I'd feel a bit exposed if what remained liquid didn't well and truly counter-balance property owned. Needless to say, the property is rather humble.

[azazel]

How would you do that without them noticing?

Smuggle it out disguised as a Rolls Royce?

[G0ldfinger]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/31_James_Turk_-_Silver_Formation_Projects_Spike_to_$60_-_$75_Level.html

James Turk continues:

 

 

“The same thing for silver, Eric. Last week was absolutely spectacular with silver rising more than 13%. So silver, like gold, is taking a little bit of a breather today. What’s really important, Eric, is the weekly silver chart. Silver is forming a beautiful, long-term, flag consolidation pattern. The flagpole started in 2010 at $18 and peaked at $49 earlier this year. We are now in the flag and we can expect a breakout, I think, within the next few weeks.

 

 

Here is the good part, Eric, it projects to a $60 silver price, but given the strength of this pattern, one could easily see $75. The shakeout over the past six months has put a lot of people on the sidelines. I don’t expect that money to come back into the market until silver goes back above $43. When silver takes out $43 it should rocket just like it did earlier this year when it nearly doubled in price.”

[dunker1]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/31_James_Turk_-_Silver_Formation_Projects_Spike_to_$60_-_$75_Level.html

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/1_James_Turk_-_Expect_a_Big_September_for_Gold_%26_Silver.html

 

 

James Turk often makes the most extreme calls of all the multitude of bulls that are around, and they never ever seemed to be called to account when there predictions prove to be way off the mark. Strange as he appears so conservative in appearance and tone.

 

I am in both phys silver and gold, but I do sometimes become peeved by the almost cultishness of many of the sites that push the whole silver/gold story. The aforementioned King World news for example, never is a dissenting voice or alternative opinion seen or heard, and the interviewees are just fed soft questions that back up the overall argument. In fact, it does appear that any alternative opinions generally are shot down and accusations of manipulation instantly thrown as soon as prices move in the wrong direction.

[dunker1]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/12_James_Turk_-_Expect_%242%2C000_Gold_Within_45_Days.html

 

Sure I can find numerous examples.

[G0ldfinger]

I agree that KWN has a mission, and that no one can distract Eric King from that. I also don't listen to all interviews, actually, one of the most annoying ones is usually Gerald Celente (it's more about tone and demeanor than about content). However, IMO, James Turk has been right with his overall assessment of the situation. He usually is too early, expects things to unravel too fast. I have made the same mistake in the past, so I have some understanding for that too. There is no doubt in my mind that silver will go to $60, $75, and in fact way beyond. By end of the year? Maybe not.

 

EDIT: I want to add, even more annyoing is that everyone (FSN, KWN, or e.g. DrBubb) gives too much time and too much space to the astrologers of our time: technicians. Why would I want to hear what Louise Yamada's crystal ball has to say, when I could instead listen to someone who really knows what's going on, like Janet Tavakoli.

[dunker1]

A near or there 100% gain in 2 months ?

Seeming extremely unlikely I would say.

Silver isn't doing the job of safe haven that was predicted as inevitable in the mass turmoil currently taking place, it just gets sold off generally as a risky asset on any new piece of catastrophic news. Sure it is a big head scratcher for the bulls when we have an environment in which they would have anticipated a far far higher price for silver.

If then we are awaiting the industrial side to kick in ( read that it could be supposedly 70% of demand in the future), then surely a massively bankrupt western world and slowing growth elsewhere isn't exactly bullish.

Also factor in the inevitable margin hikes etc. that occur as soon as any sign of steep inclines in price occur in the PM's, do you think a rise of 100% would happen with no interference ?

[G0ldfinger]

As I said, it's unlikely to rise 100% over the next 2 months, but I don't think it's impossible. Margin hikes, so what? I hope they turn it into a cash market asap. The world financial system is collapsing. Silver is an outrageous bargain. Silver is gold's naughty little sister, as Frizzers once wrote. So, don't complain if your hair catches on fire. I rode $21 to $9, and I rode $49 to $26 recently. At least it doesn't get boring. Call me Silverfinger.

 

Euros anyone? Dollars? Swiss Francs? Yen? :lol: You gotta be kidding me!

 

A near or there 100% gain in 2 months ?

Seeming extremely unlikely I would say.

Silver isn't doing the job of safe haven that was predicted as inevitable in the mass turmoil currently taking place, it just gets sold off generally as a risky asset on any new piece of catastrophic news. Sure it is a big head scratcher for the bulls when we have an environment in which they would have anticipated a far far higher price for silver.

If then we are awaiting the industrial side to kick in ( read that it could be supposedly 70% of demand in the future), then surely a massively bankrupt western world and slowing growth elsewhere isn't exactly bullish.

Also factor in the inevitable margin hikes etc. that occur as soon as any sign of steep inclines in price occur in the PM's, do you think a rise of 100% would happen with no interference ?

[Carlton]

Silver isn't doing the job of safe haven that was predicted as inevitable in the mass turmoil currently taking place, it just gets sold off generally as a risky asset on any new piece of

Sure it is. Silver is one of the few things that has approximated gold's performance of the past 10 years. Of course silver is more volatile. But owning silver has more than protected your purchasing power, it has increased it. What more do you want?

 

[romans holiday]

A near or there 100% gain in 2 months ?

Seeming extremely unlikely I would say.

Silver isn't doing the job of safe haven that was predicted as inevitable in the mass turmoil currently taking place, it just gets sold off generally as a risky asset on any new piece of catastrophic news. Sure it is a big head scratcher for the bulls when we have an environment in which they would have anticipated a far far higher price for silver.

If then we are awaiting the industrial side to kick in ( read that it could be supposedly 70% of demand in the future), then surely a massively bankrupt western world and slowing growth elsewhere isn't exactly bullish.

Also factor in the inevitable margin hikes etc. that occur as soon as any sign of steep inclines in price occur in the PM's, do you think a rise of 100% would happen with no interference ?

The problem is that there was too great an expectation put on silver which owed to a simplistic reading of money figures, QE, and the way money was supposed to behave etc.

 

A more realistic reading of silver is that it won't "leverage" the rise in gold but instead reflect it..... appreciating on average around 22% annually. And this rise will be more volatile to both sides due to golds higher status as a monetary asset, and a safe haven when volatile markets sell off.

 

There is scope within this scenario to hedge core gold/ silver by trading silver volatility against the dollar.

[50sQuiff]

[Perishabull]

Silver futures divided by the Dollar Index - 1 year

 

 

Does anyone notice anything interesting about this chart? (This is not a MENSA question)

[Perishabull]

Silver futures divided by the Dollar Index - 1 year

 

 

Does anyone notice anything interesting about this chart? (This is not a MENSA question)

 

The uptrend angles are getting more acute, implying weakness. I'm glad I don't hold silver anymore, it might just get crushed (again).

[electroweak]

The uptrend angles are getting more acute, implying weakness. I'm glad I don't hold silver anymore, it might just get crushed (again).

each of your trendlines is based on just two points of contact with a line plot.

Can you do the same with a candlestick?

 

EDIT: ignore- your chart shows %.. (A log plot will make relative moves more obvious too; the angles will steepen at lower prices.)

 

I don't subscribe to the fact silver looks weak. After I bought some physical eagles at £26 (GBP) a couple of months ago, it's done pretty well and is now feeling out resistance at $35 (physical eagles £32-33).

[romans holiday]

The uptrend angles are getting more acute, implying weakness. I'm glad I don't hold silver anymore, it might just get crushed (again).

I have a [wilfully] "split personality" towards silver. On the one hand, having bought and held silver bullion since 2008/ 2009 that has continued to do well...as far as the long term trend is concerned [akin to gold]. On the other hand, I'll attempt to trade the volatility in silver in order to hedge over-weight long term core bullion [silver, but more gold]. The high 20s look a good point to buy if you pull up a long term log chart [am unable to post charts these days].

 

There's a good chance that silver will have a third explosive move up to 100 odd......though it may take a couple of years. Being a trade, I'll no doubt have to exercise the firmest discipline in order to sell back to dollars..... not being a hyper-inflationist and all.

 

 

Most core "buy and hold" bullion is in gold because of the perceived volatility in silver.

 

50s Quiff's chart above is good for considering an entry point.... though personally prfer the dollar chart.

[Perishabull]

1992 - present (log);

 

[Perishabull]

Shanghai hikes silver margins to fresh high

 

"HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China's leading market for precious metals trading increased its silver margin requirements Friday to a fresh high amid heightened volatility in precious metals.

 

The Shanghai Gold Exchange lifted silver margin requirements to 18% of a contract's value, up from 15% previously, according to data provided by ScotiaMocca, the metals unit of Scotia Capital.

 

It's not clear when the new margin requirements come into effect, but a report by Reuters said it would likely be from Monday"

[drbubb]

Some prefer to stay blind

 

EDIT: I want to add, even more annyoing is that everyone (FSN, KWN, or e.g. DrBubb) gives too much time and too much space to the astrologers of our time: technicians. Why would I want to hear what Louise Yamada's crystal ball has to say, when I could instead listen to someone who really knows what's going on, like Janet Tavakoli.

LOL

It is a shame you do not understand how to use charts, and prefer to wallow in your own personal lack of knowledge.

 

With the sources that you do use, you came up with this little gem a few days ago:

I have a feeling like next week we'll go through $1,800 and never ever look back again.

 

I tried to warn you, as anyone reading the Gold thread will know.

 

At the same time as the above enthusiasm was posted, it was obvious the upmove in Silver and Gold was technically weak. Instead of learning something from your forecasting miscue, you ridicule those who can do better. I have to say your comment contains at least a whiff of arrogance : "astrologers of our time" indeed. More like: People who are open-minded enough to embrace techniques before the masses.

 

Why not learn from results that there's more to Heaven and Earth than yours-and-ours received wisdom can contemplate?

[G0ldfinger]

Silver bears, you better listen to the latest interview with Stephen Leeb on the Financial Sense Newshour. Solar energy production is essentially just a "rounding error" in world energy production, BUT already it uses up 11% of annual silver supply. Now imagine there's really going to be a crunch in oil, nuclear and so on, and they want to step up alternatives. And this is just one single factor influencing silver prices.

[G0ldfinger]

Some prefer to stay blind

...

It is a shame you do not understand how to use charts, and prefer to wallow in your own personal lack of knowledge.

...

Instead of learning something from your forecasting miscue, you ridicule those who can do better. I have to say your comment contains at least a whiff of arrogance : "astrologers of our time" indeed. ...

My main forecast for the past years has been: "gold & silver will go up a lot". I was 100% correct with that.

 

Don't you think there is a reason that "technical analysis" is not a discipline of financial mathematics as a science? That should be a strong indication to you that it is just hokuspokus that does not hold up to any rigorous analysis (other such examples are the "Most Haunted" shows and similar).

 

On another note, allowing myself a little superstition, I do see James Turk's MASSIVE 30+ years cup & handle in silver. He is going to be right on that one.