SILVER

[G0ldfinger]

"www.swingtradingdaily.com" -->> IGNORE.

 

Silver In Trouble

 

http://www.swingtradingdaily.com/2011/12/07/editorial/silver-in-trouble/

[G0ldfinger]

From the looks of this, two more years, and COMEX will be out of silver.

 

[Perishabull]

From the looks of this, two more years, and COMEX will be out of silver.

 

 

Do you think that is professionals taking delivery?

[huntergatherer]

Major Silver Discovery

 

major silver discovery of a substantial amount of silver

 

http://www.irw-press.com/en/news_14455.html

[Perishabull]

[warpig]

 

 

 

Major Silver Discovery

 

major silver discovery of a substantial amount of silver

 

http://www.irw-press...news_14455.html

[romans holiday]

The large dollar hedge about to come into play. Buy order in at AGQ 40. The previous upleg went from 10 to 50, so will look to sell at 100. Which would put AGQ at... something ridiculous.

 

[drbubb]

From DrBubb's Diary...

That is a brilliant find, I remember spruiks not too long ago chanting in a frenzy that Gold will be $5,000 - $24,000 per ounce. And recently when it hit $1900 per ounce, "you better buy now, blah blah". I remember these types of lines just before real estate started to crumble in the USA and even here in Australia.

When other precious metal sites were ramping Gold at $1900 and Silver at $45 plus, what you were hearing some several folks here (not just me) was: "Be careful! Parabolic moves normally get retraced."

 

[

 

I reckon some GEI readers benefitted from those warnings and upon reading them were more likely to take profits or shift to another metal than buy into the parabolic spike.

 

I have to admit, that I am gritting my teeth while buying right now. And I am much more likely to buy in the money calls than outright longs. I always thought that I would be buying more outright longs at these levels when we reached them. But I find I don't have the stomach for it since I can see that support could easily be broken. Some usually accurate observers, like my HF friend "B" have been talking about $22 Silver. Maybe we will see that (or even lower), and so I want to "keep some powder dry" in case we do.

 

But anyway, if you look at the Beating B&H thread, you will see I have been aggressive in buying in recent days, as I always planned to be when Silver hit these levels below $30 and near $27. I do think you can put the market calls on GEI up there will they most accurate you can find. But now that I have typed that, there's an excellent chance you will see a big blunder soon, and maybe this agressive buying of Call will be it. Of course, we want to trade knowing "anything can happen."

 

SEE: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

[G0ldfinger]

He is someone who posts just negatives views. This is actually quite useful, because it is easy to see that most of it is ridiculous spin. I really find it quite useful, it confirms my own position every single time.

 

[Manual labourer]

From DrBubb's Diary...

 

When other precious metal sites were ramping Gold at $1900 and Silver at $45 plus, what you were hearing some several folks here (not just me) was: "Be careful! Parabolic moves normally get retraced."

 

[

 

I reckon some GEI readers benefitted from those warnings and upon reading them were more likely to take profits or shift to another metal than buy into the parabolic spike.

 

I have to admit, that I am gritting my teeth while buying right now. And I am much more likely to buy in the money calls than outright longs. I always thought that I would be buying more outright longs at these levels when we reached them. But I find I don't have the stomach for it since I can see that support could easily be broken. Some usually accurate observers, like my HF friend "B" have been talking about $22 Silver. Maybe we will see that (or even lower), and so I want to "keep some powder dry" in case we do.

 

But anyway, if you look at the Beating B&H thread, you will see I have been aggressive in buying in recent days, as I always planned to be when Silver hit these levels below $30 and near $27. I do think you can put the market calls on GEI up there will they most accurate you can find. But now that I have typed that, there's an excellent chance you will see a big blunder soon, and maybe this agressive buying of Call will be it. Of course, we want to trade knowing "anything can happen."

 

SEE: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

 

Hence I have maintained a LONG BIAS in my BBH portfolio.

I merely "Dial up" and ""Dial down" risk (using options) when I think we are at extremes or within "interesting" trading windows.

 

We are within such a trading Window at the moment, and I am buying SLV, AGQ, and SLW calls aggressively

 

 

Could be brave that DB, If $26 is tested and fails, which it probably will then the next bus stop could be $18 !

 

At which piont I will need a train not a truck! :D

 

 

Regards

 

Ml

[warpig]

You're quite right, I shouldn't have risen to it. "Keep your friends close, but your enemy closer..."

 

He is someone who posts just negatives views. This is actually quite useful, because it is easy to see that most of it is ridiculous spin. I really find it quite useful, it confirms my own position every single time.

 

 

 

[drbubb]

DISCIPLINED BETTING ON THE UPSIDE

 

This is from the Beating B&H thread...

SUMMARY of Beating B&H - Alternative Portfolios

 

--Type-- : Port.1 : Port.2 : average

Ag-phys. : 4,000 : 6,000 : 5,000

SLV-shs. : 1,000 : 0,000 : 0,500

======= : ==== : ==== :

+ CORE +: 5,000 : 6,000 : 5,500

+ Upside :14,000 15,000 :14,500

+ (Calls)

SlvAp23 : 0,000 : 1,000 :

SlvAp27 : 1,000 : 1,000 :

SlvAp30 : 0,000 : 2,000 : Slightly out-of-the money

SlvJa27 : 2,000 : 0,000 :

SlvJa28 : 0,000 : 0,000 :

SlvJa30 : 1,000 : 0,000 :

AgqJ.40 : 1,000 : 1,000 :

SlwMr25: 1,000 : 1,000 :

SlwMr27: 1,000 : 1,000 :

AgqExtra: 2,000 : 2,000 : see footnote

======= : ====== : ======

+Options+ 9,000 : 9.000 :

= $Value : $033.9 : $033.9 :

To Exer. : $203.0 : $203.0 :

+Cash$+: $300.1 : $255.3 :

Free cash $097.1 : $052.3 :

Core Nav $147.5 : $178.0 :

Total Nav $484.7 : $470.4 : $477.6 // B&H: $296.6

 

Detail from: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

 

Note: I am now holding my most aggressive Silver positions ever !

 

I have jumped to Silver-related positions LARGER than the Buy & Hold portfolio. In AP#1, I have about 140% of the Silver exposure that B&H has. And AP#2 has 150%. So I jump in Silver prices now would be likely to INCREASE my outperformance relative to B&H. I have waited a long time, to implement this greater leverage to Silver, and I hope I have my timing right !

 

In any case, since I am using options, I will be less exposed to a sharp drop in Silver prices than the B&H portfolio. The negative thing is that I am now the most heavily exposed to time decay that the portfolios have ever been, So I am hoping for sharp moves soon.

 

As per my trading design, I keep an eye on how much cash I would need to exercise all my SLV and Silver-related Calls (just over $200k per portfolio.) My cash holdings in each portfolio exceed that, so I retain some "free Cash", so there is zero danger of losing the "upside" controlled by my Silver-related calls. And if Silver drops, I retain some cash firepower to buy at lowerprices.

 

Please note that I am now including SLW call options as virtually equivalent to SLV calls. In fact, I think there is an excellent chance that SLW will outperform SLV, but this is not certain. AGQ calls have a 2X gearing, but the underlying value ($45.65) is higher than SLV ($27.96) and so each AGQ share should have 3.27 times as much of the upside as SLV. (That is, a $1 move in SLV should push AGQ up by about $3.27.) So this looks to be an efficient way of holding Silver price upside. In my Summary table, I count each 1,000 AGQ Calls as if they were 3,000 SLV calls - that's recorded as 2,000 as "AGQ Extra."

 

OPTIONS WORK!

And it is clearly possible to consistently Beat Buy & Hold.

[huntergatherer]

You're quite right, I shouldn't have risen to it. "Keep your friends close, but your enemy closer..."

'Your worst enemy is yourself' (Chinese proverb)

 

A very scary chart - Silver at $20 by Jan 1st?

 

http://forum.treasurenet.com/index.php?topic=426212.0

[romans holiday]

'Your worst enemy is yourself' (Chinese proverb)

Yes, always entertain the possibility of being completely deceived/ self-deluded... hence hedge.

A very scary chart - Silver at $20 by Jan 1st?

 

http://forum.treasurenet.com/index.php?topic=426212.0

In 2008, silver corrected from 20 to 10. Wouldn't the equivalent this time round be 25... down form 50?

[Jake]

Yes, always entertain the possibility of being completely deceived/ self-deluded... hence hedge.

 

In 2008, silver corrected from 20 to 10. Wouldn't the equivalent this time round be 25... down form 50?

Didn't it recently correct to 26, very briefly?

 

I would relish the 20 figure...and wouldn't you relish the 17.90 or so figure?

 

Larry Edelson thinks it might...

 

''Gold has plunged through many of the support levels I’ve previously provided you. It’s dropped through the $1,730 level … the $1,610 level … and has thus far reached as low as $1,564.

 

Once it closes below $1,610 on a Friday, which it will likely have done before you even read this column — the stage will be set for gold to collapse to at least $1,435 and, very possibly, as low as the $1,100 mark.

 

And silver, precisely as I’ve been warning you, has started to crash again — losing more than $4 last week and shattering support at the $30 level … then the $29.16 level — and is now ready to make a beeline down to $25 and, very possibly, much lower to $22 to $23 an ounce.''

 

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/important-update-on-gold-and-silver-13437?FIELD9=2

[drbubb]

''Gold has plunged through many of the support levels I’ve previously provided you"

LOL

Why listen to people, who are continually "surprised" by these predictable and tradable moves?

 

Please note that I am now including SLW call options as virtually equivalent to SLV calls. In fact, I think there is an excellent chance that SLW will outperform SLV, but this is not certain...

Note yesterday's Outperformance by SLW:

 

Santa rally is here.

Gold has recovered to the 200dma; will it now meet resistance here?

 

"It's a Dead Cat Bounce," says Tom Obrien, and "The S&P wants to tag SPX-1290."

"It is easy to move it during a week like this."

 

If it goes up on light volume, he thinks it will soon drop to retest the October lows.

He is also unimpressed by Gold's rally, and thinks it will drop $200 or more.

 

(Tuesday closes):

 

SPX: 1241.30 +35.95 / +2.98%

O: 1205.72 / H: 1242.82 / L: 1205.72

 

GLD: 156.98 + 2.11 / +1.36%

O: 156.82 / H: 157.43 / L: 156.58

vol.: 9.14 mn (ave: 14 mn)

 

SLV: 28.77 + 0.81 / +2.90%

O: 28.64 / H: 28.82 / L: 28.50

vol.: 11.52 mn (ave: 20 mn)

 

SLW: 29.80 +1.54 / +5.45% : Note Outperformance !

O: 28.87 / H: 29.83 / L: 28.75

vol: 4.37 mn (ave: 6 mn)

[warpig]

I guess this is the bottom of the correction then...

 

He is also unimpressed by Gold's rally, and thinks it will drop $200 or more.

 

 

 

[romans holiday]

''Gold has plunged through many of the support levels Ive previously provided you"

LOL

Why listen to people, who are continually "surprised" by these predictable and tradable moves?

 

 

Note yesterday's Outperformance by SLW:

 

 

 

"It's a Dead Cat Bounce," says Tom Obrien, and "The S&P wants to tag SPX-1290."

"It is easy to move it during a week like this."

 

If it goes up on light volume, he thinks it will soon drop to retest the October lows.

He is also unimpressed by Gold's rally, and thinks it will drop $200 or more.

 

(Tuesday closes):

 

SPX: 1241.30 +35.95 / +2.98%

O: 1205.72 / H: 1242.82 / L: 1205.72

 

GLD: 156.98 + 2.11 / +1.36%

O: 156.82 / H: 157.43 / L: 156.58

vol.: 9.14 mn (ave: 14 mn)

 

SLV: 28.77 + 0.81 / +2.90%

O: 28.64 / H: 28.82 / L: 28.50

vol.: 11.52 mn (ave: 20 mn)

 

SLW: 29.80 +1.54 / +5.45% : Note Outperformance !

O: 28.87 / H: 29.83 / L: 28.75

vol: 4.37 mn (ave: 6 mn)

Tom O'Brien's may have dug himself into a biased bearish position. He called gold badly a while back, and has since then consistently wished for gold to come lower.

 

Will be interesting to see if these levels hold, when the tide of opinion is swinging towards lower levels

[romans holiday]

Didn't it recently correct to 26, very briefly?

 

I would relish the 20 figure...and wouldn't you relish the 17.90 or so figure?

 

No, I won't hold out for that figure from an old trade.

 

I doubt silver would go that low... mid 20s looks like a more reasonable buying target.

[G0ldfinger]

It would be interesting to hear what SLV has to say about this.

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/21_London_Trader_-_There_are_Tremendous_Silver_Shortages.html

London Trader - There are Tremendous Silver Shortages

...

The only way they have been able to keep silver depressed is by borrowing silver from SLV to meet immediate demand. That’s the only reason silver isn’t trading $10 to $15 higher right now.

 

There isn’t enough silver for investors to buy (in large amounts) so they have been using SLV as a flywheel. SLV is over 20 million ounces short on the silver they are supposed to have in the vaults to back the shares which have been issued. The silver isn’t there.

[Perishabull]

Silver futures - February 2011 to present;

 

Bix Weir's $6000 silver call looks even more ridiculous today, never mind at the top, if we take another excursion to the downside how long are the "Silver Liberation Army" going to wait for $50 again?

 

Have we seen a 31 year double top in Silver?

[drbubb]

Silver futures - February 2011 to present;

 

Bix Weir's $6000 silver call looks even more ridiculous today, never mind at the top, if we take another excursion to the downside how long are the "Silver Liberation Army" going to wait for $50 again?

 

Have we seen a 31 year double top in Silver?

Good questions!

I do hope the bulls who fell for his blatter will remember this,

and be more receptive to the many "voices of sanity", which were dismissed in the parabolic spiral.

 

Having said that that, I have bought fairly aggressively at these lower prices.

I note the lack of buying interest on the thread now, and regard that as a positive factor.

[Jake]

 

Bix Weir's $6000 silver call looks even more ridiculous today, never mind at the top, if we take another excursion to the downside how long are the "Silver Liberation Army" going to wait for $50 again?

 

Have we seen a 31 year double top in Silver?

 

I think Bix Weir always sounded a bit of a lunatic, still I dont think we will have to wait another 30 years for silver to 50 dollars either.

 

Is this the double top?

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Silver_USD.html

 

or this,

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/freelongtermCPIAG1700log.php

 

or this one which needs updating by the looks of things,

http://bp2.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/RpPk53Zy8lI/AAAAAAAAA7U/Lat33OsaPWA/s1600-h/ss-cpi-silver.png

 

The DJIA:silver looks ok,

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/DJIA-Silver-Ratio.html

 

 

''if we take another excursion to the downside how long are the "Silver Liberation Army" going to wait for $50 again?

 

Have we seen a 31 year double top in Silver?''

 

What do you think PD? How long will we have to wait for 50 dollar silver again?

[drbubb]

Is this the double top?

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Silver_USD.html

 

or this,

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/freelongtermCPIAG1700log.php

. . .

The DJIA:silver looks ok,

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/DJIA-Silver-Ratio.html

It could easily take 1-2 years (from the April 2011 Top) to touch $50 again.

No guarantee we will go through it, if/when it does.

 

No doubt, it will depend upon the Dollar's outlook.

[G0ldfinger]

I am more on James Turk side, seeing no problem with silver hitting $70 in 2012. Of course it need not do so, but certainly we also haven't seen anything yet.

 

Silver is similar to gold as far as more and more of it ends up in strong hands given the weak hands panic everytime the price dips.