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Or.... silver had raced up a bit quickly, and now we see the expected consolidation.

I am not given to conspiracy theories, but given the statements of Andrew McGuire and others I am tempted to think that some of these pullbacks in silver are orchestrated by someone.

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I am not given to conspiracy theories, but given the statements of Andrew McGuire and others I am tempted to think that some of these pullbacks in silver are orchestrated by someone.

They may well be. But if your concerned with price, you have to take the behaviour of the market as you find it. Whether the market is 'pure' or 'manipulated' is besides the point and hence my agnosticism.

 

If one really thought that markets were manipulated then that manipulation would be factored into predictions/ expectations of price etc. But what tends to happen instead with those that adhere to manipulation is they use it as an ad hoc after-the-event explanation; silver should blast upwards due to the fundamentals... and when it corrects they then blame manipulation. It really is quite an ingenious air-tight system because it's unfalsifiable. But then those who think falsifiability is a virtue to a theory see this as a weakness.

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But what tends to happen instead with those that adhere to manipulation is they use it as an ad hoc after-the-event explanation; silver should blast upwards due to the fundamentals... and when it corrects they then blame manipulation.

 

Yep, agree with that, and it is very noticable on a lot of the precious metal blogs, any day that the price doesn't increase is listed as being evidence of manipulation. I haven't seen any clear evidence of manipulation in the silver market for a couple of months now, until yesterday that is. And I think there will almost certainly be more shortly before or during the Bernank today.

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so it is clear manipulation if the price drops by 5%, but perfectly legitimate that it rose just as promptly only days before?

 

The nature of the selling in gold and silver was highly irrational, the big seller(s) was obviously not trying to maximize proceeds received. Hence, the seller seems to have been motivated by other considerations.

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The nature of the selling in gold and silver was highly irrational, the big seller(s) was obviously not trying to maximize proceeds received. Hence, the seller seems to have been motivated by other considerations.

i dont have your chart reading skills because cannot see how that is obvious at all. silver has run up 40% over last three months, someone must have made some money. if the price plummets from here then these trades will look very savvy.

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i dont have your chart reading skills because cannot see how that is obvious at all. silver has run up 40% over last three months, someone must have made some money. if the price plummets from here then these trades will look very savvy.

See here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/2_Whistleblower_Maguire_-_US_Entity_Interferes_in_Gold_Market.html

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i dont have your chart reading skills because cannot see how that is obvious at all. silver has run up 40% over last three months, someone must have made some money. if the price plummets from here then these trades will look very savvy.

I had made an 80% profit on silver in just over a month with a leveraged silver ETF [now still over 50%]. Mind you that is only a paper profit. I expected silver to come back a bit, and didn't take a profit because I want to let this one run. Why sell in a month for that kind of a profit [and lose your position] when there is a good chance of making a much better profit on quite a different order of magnitude over a longer time frame?

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9164&pid=241603&st=260entry241603

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Silver – Is the Party Over?

 

Mar 01, 2012 - 06:03 AM

 

A couple of weeks ago, we compared the Bull market of Silver to the Nasdaq Bubble…

We wrote that Silver could go as high as $38, but that that might be an inflection point.

Silver reached a high of $37.22 last night and $37.62 today, and has thus reached its goal.

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33377.html

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Silver – Is the Party Over?

 

Mar 01, 2012 - 06:03 AM

 

A couple of weeks ago, we compared the Bull market of Silver to the Nasdaq Bubble…

We wrote that Silver could go as high as $38, but that that might be an inflection point.

Silver reached a high of $37.22 last night and $37.62 today, and has thus reached its goal.

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33377.html

If the pattern doesn’t hold, and silver blasts through $40, it’s probably on it’s way to the all-time high. In that case, the next big move would be to the upside, with potential targets of $70 and potentially triple digit silver prices.

As long as the pattern holds, I would be careful if silver hits $38.

 

Well, so far, the pattern holds.

 

At the moment, Silver is falling 5%, adding more weight to the Nasdaq comparison, even though many people will blame me for not looking at fundamentals. I do not write this post to trash silver. I like Silver. I like Gold. But I also like my own analyses and comparisons.

 

Do your own Due Diligence.

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David Morgan on FSN: It took Sprott 10M oz physical silver to move the price $2 up. It took 220M oz paper silver the other day to move it $3 down.

 

Think!

 

 

That says to me that the paper market and the physical market are no longer working as one. To me it looks like there are two diffrent markets,

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silretrace.png

 

Here's the retracement I was looking for. Heavy buy order is still on at 50.

 

 

silverwave.png

 

 

Retracement in silver continuing.

 

Buy order at 50 [2nd buy order, got the first at 40... both are heavy buys], but will be getting itchy fingers at 55 no doubt.

 

 

 

 

longerlook.png

 

A longer term view. Looks like a solid bottoming pattern to me, with a higher high.

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Why AGQ over SLV? Just wondering

Because I'm looking to trade the volatility in silver, and not to increase silver ounces but US dollars. I only buy and hold gold. This also acts as a hedge against an equally heavy holding in gold.

 

I don't strictly consider it a complete 'hedge' though as see gold and dollars as complementary forms of liquidity. Gold should still outperform dollars, but by trading those dollars against silver the dollar position may well outperform the B&H in gold... as gold is only rising 20 odd % yearly against the dollar.

 

This heavy and leveraged trade also provides an exit plan. There's a good chance that buying double silver at 26 and again around 30 will give over a 1000% return if silver spikes through 100 in the next 2 or 3 years. Best to sell on the spike when it comes because every chance that silver will then correct to 50.

 

I don't think silver leverages gold, all it leverages is the volatility to both sides. In the aggregate it should appreciate at a similiar rate to gold... 20 odd % a year.

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