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I think you are absolutly correct, maybe ZSL will be a better choice in a couple of years once silver is at $90-$100 and due a serious retracement.

 

Yes, but the magnitude of that spike when it comes is likely to surprise everyone [not to mention the following correction]. On the previous spike, most traders would have chosen the halfway resting point of 35 to short or sell. It then went on to 50! So we had silver go from 10 to 50 on the last leg... a magnitude of 5. If this leg rhymes with that one then you have silver going from 25 to 125. As is often commented, trades are often ruined by looking for the last 10% or so. A target of 100 for the [medium term] trade looks reasonable.

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'Contangos' aside, I don't think it is very relevant to compare the oil market to the silver market. Oil is simply a commodity while silver has monetary properties. I've always predicted that the two markets would behave very differently in a [hyper] deflationary environment.... it is probabably easier to see the divergence between gold and oil, silver being so volatile.

 

Questor laments buying the oil ETF, I have so far had some good trading success with the leveraged silver ETF.

 

http://www.greenener...280#entry258441

 

With all due respect, I am not at all comparing the oil market to the silver market. What I am saying is that ETFs themselves are not good vehicles to use to 'profit on the medium term' as the FORCED ROLLOVERS which the ETF has to accomplish will scupper your profits.

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With all due respect, I am not at all comparing the oil market to the silver market. What I am saying is that ETFs themselves are not good vehicles to use to 'profit on the medium term' as the FORCED ROLLOVERS which the ETF has to accomplish will scupper your profits.

 

Aren't $Silver and $Gold ETFs? And don't most people who invest in silver or gold buy these ETFs? And haven't they made good profits over the medium term [either realized or on paper]?

 

As for the double silver ETF, I take your point about it being risky in the medium term. Though I do have a medium term position with it, I focus more on trading another position in the short term.

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From Bix Weir

Last week I sent out an alert to all Private Road Members that Citibank was the NEW SILVER RIGGER on the block. Here was the analysis on how I figured it out (for Private Road Members)…

 

ALERT: Silver Short Hot Potato Being Passed Again!

http://www.roadtoroota.com/members/1019.cfm

 

Today comes the shocking news that the CEO and COO of Citibank have ABRUPTLY RESIGNED!

Shocker at Citigroup as CEO Vikram Pandit Abruptly Resigns

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/shocker-citigroup-ceo-vikram-pandit-abruptly-resigns-133826852.html

 

It will be impossible for JPM and Citigroup to unwind their silver rigging positions so be ready for the silver take off!

 

We are in the last moments of the MAJOR BATTLE for our freedom.

 

Buckle up for a WILD end of the year! Stay tuned on the Road to Roota for all the action

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I started a New thread around this Call

 

Let's Watch this Silver call for a BUYing Opportunity :

 

SLV Jan.$30 call ... update : Mar$30C

 

slvjan30c.gif

 

Price:Bid/Offer : $2.86 - 2.89 : Mid: $2.88

Volume: 134 / Open Interest : 71,821

 

SLV/ Silver ... update

 

slv.gif

 

Note1: $2.88 / $31.93 = xx %

Note2: $2.88 / ($31.93-28=$3.93) = xx %

 

==: Mar13 : Jan13

Hi : $5.40 : $4.90 :

Lo.: $1.50 : $1.01 :

======== : =====

Df : $3.90 : $3.89 :

Nw: $3.35 : $2.82 :

Dp.: $2.05 : $2.08 :

 

slvjan30cb.gif

 

10-Day charts : GLD : UGL : SLV : SlvJ30c : AGQ : USLV : SLW : GDX : GDXJ : GLDX

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SLV at 18% of GLD should be a BUY

 

barcamp.png

 

GLD : x18%

$170 : $30.60

$168 : $30.24

$166 : $29.88

$164 : $29.52

$162 : $29.16

$160 : $38.80

 

Silver-to-CRB : Low due soon at 10% ( 0.10 Ratio ) ?

 

 

barcamp2.png

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Correction In Silver Is A Longer-Term Opportunity

 

October 19, 2012 | 69 comments | includes: PSLV, SIVR, SLV

 

As the author of SilverPriceAdvisor.com, I'm now advocating accumulating a large overweight position in silver relative to gold.

 

First of all, just like stocks, high yield bonds, and most investment asset classes, I think precious metals peaked in price short term right after the Fed QE3 announcement. That is why my subscribers and I choose to take profits at the beginning of the fourth quarter, and reduced our precious metals ETF model portfolio exposure from the equivalent of 140% invested down to only 50%. It is also why I was taking profit gains in the mining stocks at the end of the third quarter. Since I now believe there is more opportunity in the silver market over the next two years relative to gold, and my subscribers and I have cash, the 7.4% correction in silver in the last two weeks has been welcome.

However, there are three very important things that you must understand about the silver market before purchasing an overweight position in this commodity:

 

The most important thing you need to know about the silver market is that it will trade with about 300% more volatility than gold does. This means if gold is up or down 1%, silver will probably be up or down 3%.

 

The total silver market is a fraction of the size of the gold market in dollar amounts, so the market is less liquid. Relatively small amounts of money in or out of the market will produce sharp price swings.

Because there are only a few large institutions, such as JPMorgan and HSBC, that dominate the market making of silver and are also the custodians of the large inventories, it is an easily manipulated market.

So before entering the silver market, you have to be prepared mentally for the volatility you will be exposed to.

. . .

I'm also changing strategy somewhat. Friday, I began buying a new 10% position in Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). This vehicle trades more like a closed end fund than an ETF although it is technically neither. It currently trades at a 4.16% premium to its net asset value, which basically means you pay $104.16 for only $100 of physical silver, which seems illogical when in the other ETFs, you pay very close to Net Asset Value. However, it does have some advantages over the other major ETFs, like the iShares Silver ETF (SLV) and ETF Securities (SIVR). The iShares Silver ETF uses JPMorgan as its custodian in New York, and because JPMorgan is the largest manipulator of the silver market, I would never invest in this ETF.

 

/more: http://seekingalpha....erm-opportunity

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Get those rockets ready !

 

From DrBubb's Diary

SLV / Silver on a Log scale ... update : 1yr-week

 

slvlog.gif

 

Note: that important-looking 126wk MA is based on a Fibonacci number

 

Time to Buy SLV (or SLV calls) with both hands? Maybe

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Get those rockets ready !

 

Clive Maund posted here that he was of the opinion that the USD was going to strengthen and the result would be a correction in the price of silver.

 

The main reason is the massive, staggering short position built up by the Commercials that we will look at lower down the page, which is thought to relate to a possible surprise big rally by the dollar

 

Silver has obviously double topped and corrected down to the 50% fib retrace level; the USD has not yet strengthened, but it has broken out of its downtrend and its MACD is looking promising:

 

usdx-2012-10-26.jpg?psid=1

 

Is it a sensible interpretation that a movement to a stronger dollar could cause a further drop in silver? I don't have the experience to say.

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SLV and SIL

SLVSIL.png

 

This is SLV (Physical Silver ETF) in black with SIL (Silver miners ETF) in blue. It's a semi-log chart to show relative performance. It seems that from Jan 2011, SIL has broadly speaking, underperformed in comparison to SLV. If you look at the margin of difference for SIL between May this year and now, compared to SLV, it appears to indicicate that we are now entering a period of outperformance, relative to SLV, for the silver miners.

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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/11/6_Massive_Short_Covering_%26_Buy_Stops_Triggered_In_Gold_%26_Silver.html

Massive Short Covering & Buy Stops Triggered in Gold & Silver

 

.......... this is massive computer buying at this point. There are just huge sums of money sloshing around the entire commodity complex. The trading is literally a case of hedge funds gorging themselves after selling last Friday.

 

.......... We are no longer dealing with human beings .....

 

We’re dealing with computers and the volatility they are creating in these markets is tremendous because there is no thought process to it. This is ‘Skynet’ out of control. Silver dropped 4% on Friday and today it’s already up 3.5%. The extent of the price moves are being grossly magnified by the way the computers overwhelm and swamp all of the human traders in front of them.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2CBJD093Zc

 

David Morgan makes an interesting point herein:

 

+ 70% of Silver production comes as co-production from base metals, mainly copper

 

+ Therefore, a severe fall in Copper prices, is likely to cutback on silver production

 

Copper (CU) has fallen more than Silver (SLV) ... update : other time

 

aixg.gif

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David Morgan makes an interesting point herein:

 

+ 70% of Silver production comes as co-production from base metals, mainly copper

 

+ Therefore, a severe fall in Copper prices, is likely to cutback on silver production

 

Copper (CU) has fallen more than Silver (SLV) ... update : other time

 

 

This has been my understanding and I bear this in mind all the time when thinking about silver.

It does suggest a hedgefunded long silver & short copper trade would do ok, maybe.

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Clif High is predicting a sharp rise in the silver price which would lead to a disgorging of silver (adverts to sell your silver spoons etc) followed by a sharp fall (because of said disgorging). Both will be temporary and he urges people not to sell their silver.

 

He has a link to this Max Keiser video on his halfpasthuman website:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4IBUTHyROs

Keiser Report: 'Crash JP Morgan' - 2nd Anniversary Special

 

 

If you do listen to Max, turn the volume down :)

Rob Kirby talks of $500 silver if you need some cheering up.

Donning sunglasses to ward off the glare from their clothes might also be a good idea.

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Good analysis here:

 

http://news.goldseek.../1353511500.php

 

 

silvermonth.png

 

Gold’s companion Silver is currently trading in a tighter consolidation with $35 as resistance and $27 as support. Note that Silver has tested and held above $27 six times in the last fifteen months. Silver also held above the rising 40-month moving average which supported the market in 2009 and 2010. The RSI has also made a higher low and volume has trended down during the past seven months.

 

The evidence argues that the bottoms remain well intact and the metals are consolidating before the next breakout which entails Gold breaking $1800 and Silver $35. However, these breakouts are by no means imminent. Since we are dealing with monthly charts that means potentially three or four more months of consolidation. Furthermore, sentiment data such as the COT structure and public opinion polls need some improvement before the market could sustain a breakout. Thus, more consolidation could be the order of the day for the metals.

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Silver looking very good here technically to break out to new 6 week high @ 33.20

 

Above that we have another target @ 35.40 set it early October, and above that 37.50 set back in February.

 

The rising mid term moving averages are very supportive of this move.

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SLV at 18% of GLD should be a BUY

 

barcamp.png

 

GLD : x18%

$170 : $30.60

$168 : $30.24

$166 : $29.88

$164 : $29.52

$162 : $29.16

$160 : $38.80

 

Now 19.5% : SLV-$33.02 / GLD-$169.43 = 19.49%

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From DrB's Diary - you may like this indicator

 

World's Best Silver forecaster ?

It just might be DBA - and we are now on a BUY signal

 

DBA-vs-SLV ... update : 6mos : DBA-3mos

 

dbavsslv.gif

 

A jump in DBA above the 76d MA (at/near $29.35) would be a nice BUY confirmation

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Two great videos on silver...

 

David Morgan with Bix Weir

main points:

  • Banks buy using LBMA spot and short the Co(n)mex futures.
  • LMBA is a closed association where the price is set by the 11 members.
  • 9 of those 11 members are implicated in the LI(e)BOR rigging scandal.
  • The only guy who doesn't believe the silver market is rigged is Jeff Christian laugh.gif

 

 

Max Keiser interviews Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot asset management

main points (from 12m30s):

  • For some time there are signs the London market LBMA is struggling to deliver physical silver, the deliverability of LBMA is coming into question.
  • Eric Sprott and his physical silver fund withdrawals may be one reason.
  • At the end of November, LBMA pulled their production of SIFO (SIlver FOrward rates).
  • Coincidentally SIFO was pulled at a "wash low", perhaps when Eric Sprott was in the market buying (a sensible conjecture, Eric's a pretty canny guy and has a stated aim of withdrawing physical silver for his fund PSLV).
  • Sandeep's "basis service" (which provides not just a central rate, but a bid/ask spread) suggested that at the same moment SIFO was pulled, there were real pressures and the market went into backwardation. (Backwardation in theory should never happen for gold/silver)
  • LBMA do still produce GOFO (GOld FOrward rates), as a side-note.
  • Max Keiser did a BBC World Service interview two years ago with Rob Young which made allegations but was not aired, because the BBC is protective of TPTB.
  • It's an open secret that LI(e)BOR was manipulated for years
  • It's an open secret that there is a manipulation racket at LBMA and that identities are hidden.
  • Ned was approached by BBC Panorama to talk about silver manipulation, as was Andrew Maguire, but this was never aired.

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consolid.png

 

 

Looking at both MAs, the consolidation in silver seems to be near completed. Am guessing the 50 week MA will provide support in the interim beofre silver strengthens towards 50 next year.

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USD50 per oz on silver would be nice. I am still kicking myself for not selling in the high 40s last time it spiked up.

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