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How low will silver have to go, to shake it self free of the Weak Hands ?

 

At what price will it really start to hurt the majority of weak hands?

 

Regards

 

ML

 

$23

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Silver May Extend Drop as Bear Market Nears: Technical Analysis

 

Mar 1, 2013 11:15 AM GMT

The metal slid to $27.975 an ounce in London today, the lowest since Aug. 20. A close at $28.007 would be a 20 percent drop from Oct. 4, the common definition of a bear market. A slide below $28.26 in the next few days would mean the June 2012 trough of about $26.11 would “be back in play,”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-01/silver-may-extend-drop-as-bear-market-nears-technical-analysis.html

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Why Eric Sprott likes Silver

 

Sprott on banks, gold and silver – mania, manipulation and meltdown

 

Eric Sprott may have surprised a new audience with some very pessimistic views on banks and the global economy, but spoke very positively on the investment merits of gold – and particularly of silver.

. . .

Sprott’s main focus is on silver as potentially being a far better investment even than gold. As he has stated before he reckons silver is the investment of the current decade. He follows the mathematics of silver supply and notes that there is around 11 times more silver produced in the world than gold of which a high proportion is taken up by the investment sector leaving only about three times more silver than gold being available for investment – yet, going by U.S. Mint gold and silver coins sales, and his own experience in Canada, that 55x more silver than gold is being purchased by bullion investors. This, he feels has to lead to a severe shortage of supply for the investment sector, sooner rather than later. He has often stated, although not actually on this occasion, that he expects the gold:silver ratio (GSR) to return to its historic level of around 16:1 and although we do not necessarily expect this to occur, there could well be a big fall in the GSR from its current level of around 55:1 which would indeed make silver a better investment choice than gold in pure value terms.

===

/more: http://www.mineweb.c...82756&sn=Detail

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Of course there are different ways of reaching this new ratio. (1) The price of gold but not silver could collapse (2) The price of silver could rise whilst gold remained static (3) Both could rise but silver at a much faster pace than gold.

I presume Sprott is an adherent of the 3rd scenario.

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Silver May Extend Drop as Bear Market Nears: Technical Analysis

...

I have recently bought at these sub-$30-levels. I will buy all they way down. At $0.00/oz, I will be happy to buy the entire world stock of silver.

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There's really nothing to see here, like gold - I'm neutral, and will remain so until these lines in the sand are breached. Chart lines are valid for the next three months.

 

hpcjan.PNG

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Well I've reopened my story with silver having just made some small purchases;

 

slv_zps100f66a1.png

I've been out of the silver market since 22nd September 2011, I had previously sold half right at the top and bought puts, closed the puts within a few days at $35 and held onto the other half of my silver holdings. Then from 21st to 22nd September 2011 silver went from $40 to $36 - 10% down in one day, I immediately realised that that was it for silver for some time and sold the other half.

 

I originally bought in September 2008 at about $11 then a further purchase in August 2010 at $18 (I think it was) so clearly that worked out rather well. It's nearly 2 years since that top at the end of April 2011, I think silver has had enough time to consolidate, gold too. More to the point I'm bullish on gold and the miners have been absolutely crushed again reflecting the abysmal sentiment in the precious metals sector. Sentiment on the dollar is too bullish right now.

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Silver is really taking a beating.

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For anyone who hasn't seen it this is an interesting development in gold.

 

Largest Dutch bank defaults on physical gold deliveries to customers

April 3, 2013

By: Kenneth Schortgen Jr

 

Last week, a rubicon was crossed in the precious metals market as one of the largest banks in Europe defaulted on their gold contracts, and informed their customers there was no physical gold available for delivery.

 

ABN AMRO, the largest Dutch bank in the Eurozone, issued a letter to their gold contract customers of failure of delivery, and instead will pay account holders in a paper currency equivalent to the current spot value of the metal.

 

ABN AMRO, the biggest Dutch bank, has sent a letter to its clients stating that they will no longer be able to take physical deliveries of the gold they have bought through ABN. Instead they are offered money at the current market rate for gold. Basically, instead of owning a risk free, physical asset (a gold bar or a gold coin), the bank’s clients now own a monetary claim on ABN AMRO, being exposed to the bank’s credit risk. – Voice of Russia

 

Over the past two months, there has been a concerted effort by the major Western banks to bring down the price of gold and silver, even as countries like Russia, Iran, and China continue to accumulate the physical metal in large quantities. Like the folly of betting against the stock markets when the Fed is pumping up equities with $85 billion per month, going against the J.P. Morgan silver short machine in the futures market has been a losing proposition for silver bulls.

 

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Also includes silver, platinum and palladium.

 

At least those clients don't have to worry about confiscation anymore!

If they kept their cash in the bank they could have a haircut though. Mmmm "Cash for Gold".

I see the bank is offering the "current market rate"... and this is the biggest bank in the Ned.

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ABN AMRO, the biggest Dutch bank, has sent a letter to its clients stating that they will no longer be able to take physical deliveries of the gold they have bought through ABN. Instead they are offered money at the current market rate for gold. ..

 

Whoops!

Not a huge surprise to see this happen - but it is a big surprise in a quiet market like this.

How very incompetent ABN is !

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Such a high level of Shorts should be Very Bullish for AG

 

silvercot.png

 

(thnx to Positive Deviant for the chart)

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We know supply/demand logic differs for "Giffen goods", and we also know there really is no law of supply and demand in the silver and gold markets, but surely a landslide of this size (allegedly knocking out 10% of the US silver supply) might be considered as a factor..?

 

 

silver-mine.jpg

http://silverdoctors.com/10-of-us-annual-silver-supply-just-vaporized/#more-25002

 

Just making that lot 'safe' is going to take time, methinks.

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From a link of 321gold.com

 

 

 

Silver is Following its 1970s Pattern

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT | Apr 12, 2013

 

The Daily Gold Newsletter

 

The cyclical bear market in Silver is serving its purpose. Its correcting and digesting the 6-fold advance that took place in less than two and a half years. A similar correction took place in the mid 1970s that led to the parabolic move to $50. Amazingly, if you line up Silver’s performance from its 1971 low to 1980 high with Silver’s performance since its 2008 bottom, you’ll notice strong parallels.

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How low will silver have to go, to shake it self free of the Weak Hands ?

 

At what price will it really start to hurt the majority of weak hands?

 

Regards

 

ML

 

$23

 

I didn't expect to see this

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