SILVER

[Perishabull]

[klogger]

It looks to me like it is all forming a nice base. With the news on potential interest rate rises and people getting more and more stretched I am hoping that the support will hold. This is a chart that I have been watching for many months now while waiting for an entry-point.

 

The green circle highlights a fib-fan (green line) which seems to be support and the fib-retrace (red line) is almost there. I am expecting another down for silver to about £10.75 (chart is priced in GBP). Volume seems to have been declining since May 2011although I have heard the NetDania volume is a little unreliable.

 

[stunlee]

 

then I'm suggesting we enter a full on alice-in-wonderland of financial repression.

 

I think you're right.

[Perishabull]

[Perishabull]

Silver futures

 

 

Sentiment

 

COT

 

 

Seasonality

 

Looks interesting at this point

[Traineeinvestor]

Hedge funds net short and record short selling by speculators are certainly very bullish indicators.

[Traineeinvestor]

The very antiquated (and, IMO broken) system for fixing the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium is under review: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-18/new-silver-benchmark-seen-heralding-gold-fix-revamp-commodities.html

 

Silver is being used as the crash test dummy for whatever new mechanism is adopted. It will be interesting to see what they come up with and what effect (if any) it will have on the price of silver.

[Perishabull]

Volume on SLV been exceptionally low of late - stark contrast to the top three years ago.

 

[electroweak]

Anyone in the UK might be interested in buying the new £20 half ounce coins.

 

http://www.royalmint.com/shop/UK_2013_20_pound_for_20_pound_Fine_Silver_Coin_George_and_the_Dragon

 

They are legal tender, contain fine silver.... they are VAT free.... and presumably like the Gold Sovereigns, are CGT free. Perhaps when Silver gets to £100 an ounce, these half ounce coins will be worth £50 intrinsic value!

 

If you buy over £50 worth, postage is free, so you exchange £20 for £20!

 

 

 

They are back...

£20 silver coin for £20 delivered (if you order 3 or more)

Just ordered mine.

You can't lose really, I mean just spend the £20 if silver never makes a moonshot.

 

 

http://www.royalmint.com/shop/Outbreak_2014_UK_20_Fine_Silver_Coin

 

 

 

 

 

Which one of you was it?

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2594273/Tesco-staff-banned-customer-paying-bill-commemorative-20-coins-called-POLICE-didnt-cash.html

Tesco staff banned a customer from paying his bill with commemorative £20 coins - and even called POLICE because he didn't have any other cash

The branch has since confirmed it will accept the coins as payment

 

[Perishabull]

 

 

 

They are back...

£20 silver coin for £20 delivered (if you order 3 or more)

Just ordered mine.

You can't lose really, I mean just spend the £20 if silver never makes a moonshot.

 

 

http://www.royalmint.com/shop/Outbreak_2014_UK_20_Fine_Silver_Coin

 

 

 

 

 

Which one of you was it?

 

 

Just ordered 10 - exchanging £ for £, getting a free call on silver and coins with an automatic premium due to their relative rarity. It's a no brainer isn't it.

 

Buyers on ebay have been happily snapping up the previously released coins, paying premiums from 25% to 62.5% above their legal tender value.

[azazel]

 

 

 

They are back...

£20 silver coin for £20 delivered (if you order 3 or more)

Just ordered mine.

You can't lose really, I mean just spend the £20 if silver never makes a moonshot.

 

 

http://www.royalmint.com/shop/Outbreak_2014_UK_20_Fine_Silver_Coin

 

 

 

 

 

Which one of you was it?

 

[electroweak]

my god, it's a small world. Sometimes, when i'm on a plane i look out the window at all the cities below and wonder how many people down there own silver or gold in any significant amounts; more than their wedding ring and a few necklaces... I think my estimate just went down.

 

Good for you, Aza... I might try spending mine. Course, you have to have them by the short and curlies (i.e. the fuel in your tank) before they take it seriously. In a shop they would just say no. You got it in for Tesco, or just the manager btw?

[drbubb]

Looks good to me.

 

Those Silver coins look like an excellent low risk investment

 

I might Put 100 away, for a rainy day.

Any idea how I can buy some in Hong Kong ?

[Perishabull]

Maximum is 5 coins and it's £20 if you want them sent to HK

[azazel]

my god, it's a small world. Sometimes, when i'm on a plane i look out the window at all the cities below and wonder how many people down there own silver or gold in any significant amounts; more than their wedding ring and a few necklaces... I think my estimate just went down.

 

Good for you, Aza... I might try spending mine. Course, you have to have them by the short and curlies (i.e. the fuel in your tank) before they take it seriously. In a shop they would just say no. You got it in for Tesco, or just the manager btw?

Its a matter of principle as well as a bit of fun. Given the choice I would like to see a return of gold and silver as circulating money. The £20 coin gives me that choice. Its legal tender, lawful money and I dont see how the countries biggest retailer can refuse to accept them. Who the hell do they think they are! I dont have any grudge against the staff but some of them were very hostile and it was quite entertaining when the police were called and they were expecting me to be arrested only to be told its not a police matter and that they had to accept them. They now accept them in the hope that I will go away but I have a stockpile and some of the new ones are on the way too.

 

Dispute with the manager

 

Dispute with the police

[azazel]

You can buy in mutiples of 5. I bought 10 the other night in two transactions. Free post if you buy at least three. I will wait for those 10 to show up and then buy 10 more. I always pop them out of the packaging for spending. Morrisons and a local pub accept them now too, without a fight.

[electroweak]

You can buy in mutiples of 5. I bought 10 the other night in two transactions. Free post if you buy at least three. I will wait for those 10 to show up and then buy 10 more. I always pop them out of the packaging for spending. Morrisons and a local pub accept them now too, without a fight.

Oh, that was magic.. thanks so much for posting those.

If the manager/staff had any nouse, they'd take them and flog them on ebay lol. (I understand they go for about 25 quid or sometimes more)

 

bst bits for me:

1st video, manager keeps thinking they are £2 coins..

1st video @9m57 Aza:"what are they made out of?" - Mgr:"dunno - silvery copper inside." Aza:"nope.. pure silver.." Stunned silence. Doesn't know what .999 silver looks/feels like.

2nd video, 23s Female Tesco employee:"The actual cash value is £7 something.." LOL!

"Priceless".

[Perishabull]

You can buy in mutiples of 5. I bought 10 the other night in two transactions. Free post if you buy at least three. I will wait for those 10 to show up and then buy 10 more. I always pop them out of the packaging for spending. Morrisons and a local pub accept them now too, without a fight.

 

What's interesting is that if sufficient people did what you are doing, and actually spent them, it would generate quite a bit more press interest too. It would be interesting to know what the banks do when a Tesco or a pub drops off their takings for the evening. Do they put the coin back into circulation?

 

If the opposite situation happened, ie someone paid for goods with a £50 note and part of their change included one of these coins I think 99% would not accept it (thinking it was fake).

 

The absurdity is that it's really of more value given the dual fiat / commodity aspect.

[jerpy]

The insistence of the female manager in the 2nd clip, just proves to me that should t.s.h.t.f, there will be a lot of clueless folks out there who have no idea how to value silver.

[azazel]

When I get time, I will try out a few other Tesco branches to see if they respond in the same way. Its interesting that they want my name and address when I refuse to offer any other payment and its my refusal to give my private details that provokes them to call the police. They have called the police three times now. First time (tarnished metal detecting modern coins) the police bullied me into giving Tesco my details and the second time (big bag of new coins from the post office maximum within the legal tender limits) the police said it wasnt a police matter. Still it was an interesting experiment on many levels. I should have videoed it as the managers faces were quite a picture, but it was hard enough concentrating on the confrontation what with the adrenalin rush.

[azazel]

I asked the manager at Morrisons if he would accept them and after checking with head office they said it would be OK. I only use them for payment of fuel (popped out their packaging so they arn't so collectable) in case theres a dispute. I might start using them in the store also soon. Anyone wanting to do the same could mention this when asking.

[stunlee]

 

Just ordered 10 - exchanging £ for £, getting a free call on silver and coins with an automatic premium due to their relative rarity. It's a no brainer isn't it.

 

 

I've never understood this. If you buy 10 of the 20 pound silver coins at 200 pounds then you are getting 5 ounces of silver with a nominal value of 200 pounds. But if you buy 5 Britannias then you have 5 ounces of silver and still have 125 pounds left. Heavens you could even go crazy and buy 12 ounces for your 200 pounds. Apart from the potential for numismatic value, which I know nothing about, I can't see where the gain is in these coins?

[electroweak]

 

I've never understood this. If you buy 10 of the 20 pound silver coins at 200 pounds then you are getting 5 ounces of silver with a nominal value of 200 pounds. But if you buy 5 Britannias then you have 5 ounces of silver and still have 125 pounds left. Heavens you could even go crazy and buy 12 ounces for your 200 pounds. Apart from the potential for numismatic value, which I know nothing about, I can't see where the gain is in these coins?

 

ok, the coins are spendable for £20. (Britannias are just £2, despite having more silver).

The silver is just a 'free extra', so you have effectively got a free 'call option' on some silver.

 

Yes, you get less silver than a Britannia, but you can spend the coins for £20.

You can't do that with a Britannia.

If silver does a moonshot, you got the silver for free; as it's the same as holding a £20 note without the silver.

[stunlee]

 

ok, the coins are spendable for £20. (Britannias are just £2, despite having more silver).

The silver is just a 'free extra', so you have effectively got a free 'call option' on some silver.

 

Yes, you get less silver than a Britannia, but you can spend the coins for £20.

You can't do that with a Britannia.

If silver does a moonshot, you got the silver for free; as it's the same as holding a £20 note without the silver.

 

Thanks for the reply.

Yes, I can see all of that. Let us continue with the 10* 20 pound coins versus 12 Britannias scenario I earlier painted out with a number of different price scenarios.

 

Price

Silver price triples. 12 Britannias worth around 480 pounds. 10*20 coins worth 200 pounds nominal, or around 225 pounds as silver.

Silver price doubles. 12 Britannias worth around 320 pounds. 10*20 coins worth 200 pounds nominal, or around 150 pounds as silver.

Silver price unchanged. 12 Britannias worth around 160 pounds. 10*20 coins worth 200 pounds nominal, or around 75 pounds as silver.

Silver price halves. 12 Britannias worth around 90 pounds. 10*20 coins worth 200 pounds nominal, or around 38 pounds as silver.

 

 

The 20 pound coins will prove somewhat better if the price of silver falls or stays the same. But we already know that the price of silver is below the price of production, it surely cannot go much lower than it is now? I don't see what risk one would be hedging against here.

 

Surely the only thing one would actually be hedging is the risk of running out of paper money completely and being forced to sell ones silver? And, as has already been demonstrated on this thread, you can spend the coins only with a great deal of difficulty and possibly with the police being called. Colour me unconvinced about the advantage of that.

I have included VAT fees in my rough calculations but there is no VAT on silver coins in Germany for example.

[electroweak]

 

Thanks for the reply.

Yes, I can see all of that. Let us continue with the 10* 20 pound coins versus 12 Britannias scenario I earlier painted out with a number of different price scenarios.

 

Price

Silver price triples. 12 Britannias worth around 480 pounds. 10*20 coins worth 200 pounds nominal, or around 225 pounds as silver.

Silver price doubles. 12 Britannias worth around 320 pounds. 10*20 coins worth 200 pounds nominal, or around 150 pounds as silver.

Silver price unchanged. 12 Britannias worth around 160 pounds. 10*20 coins worth 200 pounds nominal, or around 75 pounds as silver.

Silver price halves. 12 Britannias worth around 90 pounds. 10*20 coins worth 200 pounds nominal, or around 38 pounds as silver.

 

 

The 20 pound coins will prove somewhat better if the price of silver falls or stays the same. But we already know that the price of silver is below the price of production, it surely cannot go much lower than it is now? I don't see what risk one would be hedging against here.

 

Surely the only thing one would actually be hedging is the risk of running out of paper money completely and being forced to sell ones silver? And, as has already been demonstrated on this thread, you can spend the coins only with a great deal of difficulty and possibly with the police being called. Colour me unconvinced about the advantage of that.

I have included VAT fees in my rough calculations but there is no VAT on silver coins in Germany for example.

Thanks for that. I like your logical explanation. Perhaps Britannias are indeed a better buy; but I already have lots of them! I like the controversial aspect the £20 coins throw up because it gets people to think about what money is, and even that a pound used to be a (troy) pound of silver!

I guess it's an insured call. You can obviously do better if there is a moonshot, but I keep them around instead of £20 notes as SHTF money.

 

The thing about silver, I guess, is that a lot (most?) of it is mined as a by-product of other metals. Logically that means production is less sensitive to the silver price than one would first expect. Also there is a fair bit of silver above ground in teasets and trays etc. so I believe there is quite a high stock-to-flow ratio --what I mean to say there is that there is a lot of silver which would "come out of the woodwork" if there was a moonshot.

I do fully expect there to be a silver moonshot at some point; but I sold 66% of my holding actually at $49.20, keeping only the phys. I'm letting that 'ride', hoping for $150+.