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I'm not sure if it has been mentioned yet... If not,

 

Take a look at PAAS (US nasdaq)

 

From my analysis (Fibo with longer term ABC structure), 102030, MACD, DMA), it looks as if there is still steam left in this stock. To brag a little, I got in this a while ago at 34,

 

That is great.

I'm almost sorry to admit this, bought I bought a bunch of PAAS years ago at $3.75.

And sold it way too soon.

 

What is funny is when I called my broker to buy it, I asked him if he could give me an update

on the price of Gold. He said, "Sorry. No. We dont get it on the screens anymore. The firm has

cancelled the subscriptions for the commodity feeds due to lack of interest by clients."

I heard that, and doubled my order.

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Butler's latest:

 

As I have written recently, there are unusual patterns that strongly suggest that the silver shortage may be at hand. The delays of silver deliveries into the big silver ETF, SLV and the inability of the US Mint to keep up the sudden and persistent demand for Silver Eagles are two important and visible clues. Currently, there are many reports of widespread tightness in many wholesale and retail silver outfits.

 

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1206378069.php

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Butler's latest:

 

As I have written recently, there are unusual patterns that strongly suggest that the silver shortage may be at hand. The delays of silver deliveries into the big silver ETF, SLV and the inability of the US Mint to keep up the sudden and persistent demand for Silver Eagles are two important and visible clues. Currently, there are many reports of widespread tightness in many wholesale and retail silver outfits.

 

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1206378069.php

 

Thanks Frizzers. Great article.

The bit that stands out so far is:

 

The important thing is that, if the tech funds have, in fact, been largely liquidated by the dealers, then the reason for a potential sharp sell-off has also been eliminated. If one were cautious about being fully-invested in silver because of the possibility of a sharp tech fund sell-off, there is little reason to maintain such caution. Certainly, if anyone held off buying silver because of anything I had written about a potential sell-off, he or she should hold off no longer. Lower prices from here are not to be feared, as they will only strengthen the bullish case.

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Thanks Frizzers. Great article.

The bit that stands out so far is:

Yep, very, very interesting. Can anyone fil me in briefly:

 

1. Who is Theodore Butler and what is his background (I take it he is not the Theodore Butler the American Impressionist Painter, 1861-1936, unless he is talking form beyond the grave)

 

2. What is the view on what sort of divergence could actually happen between Silver futures prices and the physcial? I'm not sure i "get" this bit. Particularly as if Silver is the industrial commodity which TB backs up his rising prices argument with, then surely the futures market (used by the industrials who need to secure raw materials at appropriate prices) will reflect any shortage of supply, particularly relating to big industrial 1000oz bars

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Theodore Butler is a very well respected by some writer on silver and the silver markets. He has long believed that the Silver Comex is one of if not the most manipulated market and that the short position is verging on the illegal. He has long been saying that sooner or later there will be a supply squeeze.

 

His critics say he is too extreme and has never been proved right.

 

I enjoy his writing and his observations very much. He seems to know what he's talking about. I wouldn't attempt short-term trades based on his analysis, but I would buy physical. Indeed one of his views, I believe, is that if everyone actually took delivery of physical the silver price would rocket. At the moment it is held done by paper contracts.

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Manipulation of Silver

 

The Great Silver Mystery (...and the greatest secret of all time!)

Bix Weir

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/silvermystery.html

 

Dear Silver Enthusiast...

 

Let me start off by saying that what I am going to postulate should not in any way be considered fact...because I am not in possession of proof. I am merely postulating on where all the mystery silver comes from to be sold on the physical silver market. Since the early 2000's almost every serious silver analyst has been pounding the table that there is no above ground silver available and it is the "buy of a lifetime". But at the same time, silver prices never seem to live up to their expectation. Of course, anyone with an ounce of common sense can see that the COMEX and LME silver markets are rigged by a powerful cabal of bankers (and others) that seem to be above the law (or more likely, in collusion with the law), but at the end of the day physical silver must be delivered for industrial applications and investors taking possession. So where does it all come from? ....I think I may have stumbled upon the answer!

 

After a grueling day of watching another COMEX silver rigging operation in late December, I turned on the History Channel for some mindless entertainment. The program that was running was called "Lost Worlds - Secret Cities of the A-Bomb" (you can buy it here http://store.aetv.com/html/product/index.jhtml?id=76496). It was an investigative piece on the Manhattan Project focusing on the Top Secret city that was built in Oakridge, TN and a facility called Y-12. The program was interesting to me, but one part specifically made me jump up out of my seat and run to my computer to find out what it was all about.

 

During WWII, in order for the scientists to enrich enough Uranium for the A-bomb they had to make the largest electro magnet ever built. It would be called a Calutron and according to the narrator, they needed many tons of copper wiring which they claim was not available at the time due to war shortages. Instead of copper they went to the US Treasury and "borrowed" 14,700 TONS OF SILVER. (...of course silver is a much better conductor of electricity than copper, so the copper shortage story was likely intentionally planted to conceal the necessity of silver). 14,700 tons of silver is about 470,000,000 ounces that were taken from the US vaults, made into silver wire and "busbars", and installed into the greatest secret project in the history of the world. Let's call that "deep storage silver" because, theoretically, the calutrons could be removed and the silver melted back into bars. As a matter of fact, according to the program and government statements, that is what was done in 1954.

 

:unsure:

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The Great Silver Heist

Johnny Silver Bear

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/silverheist.html

 

In an attempt to continue to purvey the "big picture" in the silver market, here are some interesting facts for your consideration.

 

Silver is as important a strategic commodity as oil. The need for a supply of silver in times of war is so essential, that a shortage of the metal could pose dire and direct consequences to the continued well being of our country. With the evolution of technology, silver has become so intrinsically important, that a lack of it will adversely affect America's national security. Meanwhile, as a result of the collusion between industrial users, central bankers, the Commodity Futures Trade Commission, (CFTC), the Chicago Board of Trade, (CBOT), and government regulators, spanning the past fifty years, inventories have all but disappeared.

....

SUA members include corporations like Eastman Kodak and Polaroid who use great quantities of silver for the production of film. Obviously, the price of silver plays an important role in their bottom lines and it is of great advantage to keep the price of silver as low as possible. Other clients include Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics, American Superconductor, and Intermagnetics General who use even greater quantities of silver for the production of super conducting cables, missiles and torpedoes. All companies that produce electrical components for use in weapons, high tech aircraft, fighting vehicles, ships, communication devices, almost everything that has to do with the war machine, depend heavily on silver.

 

An interesting thing to point out is that when a missile or torpedo explodes, as much as 1400 ounces of silver is vaporized. This is one of the industrial reasons why the above ground stockpiles of silver have already been depleted to the point of scarcity. The artificial capping of the price of any commodity is not unlike the insertion of a huge cork in a volcano. This can result in nothing less than the massive explosion of its price in the immediate future.

 

Members of the SUA also include Union Carbide, Dow Chemical, Du Pont, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan Chase. Why would Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase be members of an organization whose sole purpose is to suppress the price of silver? Well, from a central banker's standpoint, a worldwide recognition of the superiority of silver, as money, over their "funny money" would be a disastrous occurrence.

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EWT, LLC - A Bombshell from Bix Weir at Le Met Cafe

http://2cents.dailyreckoning.com/viewtopic...adc899459ab788a

 

This is so sickening, and disgusting, that I am going to risk having my subscription to le Met Cafe revoked by posting this here. I have maintained that the silver market trading patterns are rigged and have shown the rigging over and over in my charts and now it appears that the actual riggers have been unmasked...

 

EWT, LLC: http://www.ewtcareers.com/philosophy.html

....

So there we have it. The Robert Rubin connection seals the deal. SLV and GLD are definitely a part of the computer market rigging operations of the banking Cabal. I believe EWT runs their rigging programs through the accounts of the “Authorized Participants” on the COMEX as they buy and sell to each other to fix prices and orchestrate market take downs. Their designation as “Authorized Partcipants” of both SLV and GLD gives the needed credibility for their shorting activities on the COMEX/NYMEX markets. No doubt about it in my book.

 

Although nobody really knows, it is now estimated that over 90% (and rising) of all global trades are computer program based. 90% and rising! Basically, he who writes the best program, has the deepest pocket, has the least amount of scrutiny, and is the most highly connected within the power elite structure WILL ALWAYS WIN! Where does that leave our free market based Capitalist system in the future? Is this the end of free markets…or was there ever any such thing?

 

I’m sorry but I truly believe without the complete destruction of computer based markets and our current fiat money system there is no “Liberty and justice for all” in our future.

 

Bix Weir

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Ok, I suppose I probably know the answer to this without even asking, but if Silver is so important, and stocks are so low, why isn't it already more than $18-ish per oz?

 

Platinum and Palladium, for example, are in the hundreds per oz... so why isn't Silver?

 

If everyone is waiting (hoping) for it to explode in price... why is it likely to happen, if it hasn't already?

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More of my musings on silver:

 

SilverGBP_080425.gif

 

It seems to me most likely we'll get support at this level.

If not, then it could likely fall another 5%.

Worst case, it seems to me it could fall all the way back to the 200dma/support level.

 

So buying now looks like a reasonable bet, with a 5% and 11% short-term loss possible.

Upside short-term gain possible is 24%.

 

I'm not sure I've seen any buy/sell views based upon % losses/gains.

 

Please view the above in this context:

 

SilverUS_080424_lt.gif

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Chinese used silver sycee for over 1000 years as money

 

Interesting subject all on its own

 

 

s7s.JPG

 

http://www.charm.ru/library/syceelist.htm

 

Silver sycee were a major form of currency in Chinese history for a period of more than a thousand years. Silver was not the only precious metal used in ancient China (as a matter of fact, it was relatively more valuable then than now) but was also taken as an exchange media, e.g., Money. People used cash coins for smaller transactions and sycee for bigger ones. Therefore, sycee were considered the money of the rich and some of the poor never saw a sycee in their lifetime

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Anyone think the upmove in silver today is NOT a very bullish move? As far as I can see it has just broken a very important down channel. This could be it.

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Going to hell in a hand-basket today.

 

Almost broke down through the 200 DMA.

 

This shakeout has gone on long enough now.

 

 

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Anyone think the upmove in silver today is NOT a very bullish move? As far as I can see it has just broken a very important down channel. This could be it.

 

 

D'OH !

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Silver Price Manipulation- Paper Silver Versus Real Silver

Commodities / Gold & Silver May 21, 2008 - 09:04 PM

 

By: David_Morgan

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4796.html

 

This came from a Comex floor trader. Notice the price level in the letter -- the price action can be "managed," but the trend, as I said then and am stating again, is higher. Much higher. As Abraham Lincoln said, "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time."

 

---------------------------

 

Mr. Morgan:

 

I enjoyed your newsletter excerpt of Feb 12, which I found on the Kitco website. You stated perfectly some key reasons for silver's problems in getting out of its own way, and your call for further weakness was prescient.

 

I guess I'm part of the problem. I've traded COMEX futures actively from the pit for over 15 years. Over the years, the amount of futures contracts that we've traded has surely dwarfed the actual physical market, making it difficult for silver to manifest its true fundamentals.

 

As you alluded, it's "Groundhog Day" again on the floor. Over the past month I watched one fund accumulate an eye-popping long position, and I followed its progress as best I could through the open interest and commitment figures. When prices started slipping away from last week's test of the $4.85-$4.90 level, I could hardly believe my eyes when I saw early evidence that this fund was starting to sell. I went across the pit to a trader who I knew was trying to stick with his longs and I said, "I've got bad news for you -- that selling you see over there may take three weeks."

 

The fund sold heavily all last week. The usual bank traders were sopping it up, secretly relieved, I think, that prices had failed to break into ground they could not control. Younger traders ask me how these funds can keep getting chopped up like this. They don't realize that a 30-cent chop in silver is a minor inconvenience compared to the strong positions most of these guys have in gold and crude.

 

As you know, the banks will continue to play puppet master as long as the silver game remains "closed." The banks know the upper parameters of the funds' buying power; the banks know when the funds have reversed themselves into an untenable short position. It will take new "players" to get the "Bill Murray" silver market out of this loop. Certainly investment demand is the wild card that banks and recurrent short sellers cannot control.

 

Silver will be called lower on Tuesday a.m. and, although I'm a bull, I'll be getting short on the bell. There is no short-term success in getting in the funds' way.

 

A Comex Floor Trader

 

------------------------

 

So in closing, I want you to think about paper silver versus real silver. Think about how much paper is flying around compared to the amount of physical silver that exists. Think about the derivatives problem we are witnessing in the mortgage markets, and ask, "Can the precious metals derivatives be far behind?"

 

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James' comment on David's article:

 

Silver Price Manipulation

 

The following report is by David Morgan, proprietor of Silver Investor and someone who I consider to be one of the top experts on silver.

 

David makes several key points, but the important and overriding one to me is his observation that the paper market in silver dwarfs the physical market. View the differences between paper and physical to be like the child's game, musical chairs. When the music stops, there are not enough chairs for everyone, or as David estimates, there is only one chair for every hundred people. The implications are obvious.

 

Those who hold paper are in a decidedly different position than people already sitting on chairs by holding physical silver. So what would you rather own? Physical silver or just some paper representation of silver?

 

Lastly, there are only two ways to own physical silver. Buy it and store it yourself, or buy it and ask someone to store it for you, which is what we do in GoldMoney. There are no other alternatives.

 

http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php

 

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More from Jason on the Perth Mint.

 

 

Perth Mint Crisis: Solutions and Ramifications

 

By: Jason Hommel

http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1211570804.php

 

The vast majority of my readers understand the Perth Mint crisis. They know that when the Perth Mint is supposed to have an operating pool of $880 million Australian dollars of precious metal, and yet, the Mint has delivery delays for precious metal; they can see the obvious conflict there.

....

Speaking of the gullible, there are always major silver reports being trotted out by analysts at major banks and brokerages that say things like they expect a silver surplus this year, and that they don't expect investor demand to be able to rise enough to buy it. Today's ridiculous report is called "No More Silver Lining: Poor Man's Gold Will Suffer from Too Much Supply in 2008," by Eric Roseman, who appears to have bought into such reports.

 

There's always a few of my more gullible readers who get scared by those kinds of comments, despite the fact that the purchase of silver Eagles is soaring this year, and so is investment demand soaring, just like inflation. Last year's investment demand of about $1.1 billion for silver is nothing compared to what we are already seeing this year, with many dealers reporting that January and February saw ten times the normal business, and then in March, the reports of shortages started. You are more capable of making predictions about how this next year will go in the silver market than most "analyst reports" you will read.

 

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OK. I need to clarify something and I need help. In the past few months I have been making great strides to restructure my portfolio. I guess this really started back in 2005 though when I sold my B2L investment (hurrah!), but due to extensive work commitments since then I had been sitting on cash (boooo!) until a few months ago.

 

In terms of where my cash goes now? I am distributing some into physical gold and silver (via goldmoney.com) which I would say I am 99% comfortable with (there should always be at least a healthy 1% of doubt in any investment), but I am 80% convinced that using futures to invest in gold and silver right now will generate much boosted returns. In a former life I was a Director of Finance so I am fully conversant with the obvious risks of leveraging, and as such have worked out appropriate investment values for margin purposes in order to effectively 'manage' the downside risks. ie ensuring I have far more investable cash available for margin than the minimum margins, calculated on my expectation of minimum support levels. In other words I have worked out my personal risk/reward ratios on potential contracts and it is from this (and the masses of fundamental analysis and recent technical action) that I am 80% convinced. I am not scared by the principal of leverage managed within your means (despite what JS says).

 

The 20% uncertainty apparent from my confidence level right now though, emanates largely from these reports I read about market manipulation and significant shorting in the 'paper' silver market, and a possible derivatives crisis proposed by the likes of David Morgan. I am not clear though exactly what the expected outcome of such reports is likely to be, and who and which markets will be effected. I am interested primarily in entering futures contracts for silver and gold via ECBOT (I think this is effectively the same thing as COMEX as all exchanges are strategically linked these days) and I am doing this via an account with Etrade where I have a segregated client money account (ie. my cash, not their working capital)

 

I suppose my unanswered questions are as follows:

 

1) PRICING DIVERGENCE. Because of large scale shorting/manipulation of the futures market will a significant divergence between futures(paper) prices and physical prices grow from here?

 

2) If the above is true surely Goldmoney's trading prices track the futures/spot exchange markets not the physical markets (although they are buying physical :blink: ). They certainly do (track futures/spot) at the moment even though there is supposed to already be a divergence between futures and physical prices (due to physical shortages). Is this support for the argument that the only uncompromised route to ownership is delivered metal?

 

3) I have specifically looked to Futures contracts as exchange traded derivatives with a daily clearing mechanism. In other words, even though they are derivatives they are not Over The Counter and subject to counter party risk without daily clearing of funds. Is the suggestion though that there is a risk this clearing mechanism will break down and not afford the protection I deem it to provide? I quote David Morgan "Think about the derivatives problem we are witnessing in the mortgage markets, and ask, "Can the precious metals derivatives be far behind?"" Is he referring to OTC derivatives only (brokered forwards, options etc) or Futures as well?

 

5) In relation to point 4, if some crisis hit the metals derivatives market which causes prices to tumble, is there any risk to me other than the daily fall in price to be experienced? I guess, thinking out loud, maybe I wouldn't be able to exit a previously bought contract by selling if the market itself was collapsing? but how would this actually be triggered? By the fact that a domino effect of collapsing financial institutions meant there were no buyers left?

 

Yours scratching one's head.... :unsure:

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In relation to my above post; maybe a form of protection would be to close profitable positions on a regular basis, suffer the (small) costs of opening new postions if I feel the opportunity is still there, and withdraw funds leaving only minimum margin on account. This way if there is a genuine significant global financial meltdown I can effectively default the contract like everyone else..

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Gatesy,

I'm very wary of things I consider too risky. So my view, for what it's worth, is......don't do it :D

 

Maybe this will help. Possible outcomes:

 

1. Everything gets fixed, and interest rates are raised.

Gold and silver get hammered. You lose big time.

 

2. Things get a bit bad, but nothing too serious. Maybe a gradual economic decline.

Gold and silver do quite well, but not outstandingly well.

Banks survive, and all the paper promises survive.

You do well.

 

3. Things get very very bad. The financial weapons of mass destruction do their work.

Most if not all paper promises disappear in the wind.

Gold and silver rocket to the moon as the only safe haven from the catastrophe.

You lose.

 

 

I guess one worry is what might happen to the gold/silver price just for a short period if things go very bad. Might they dip if even just for a day enough to destroy your position, so you miss the subsequent rocket upwards ?

I don't know. Good luck whatever you do.

 

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Silver Coin Shortage Could Lead to Silver Price Spike

Commodities / Gold & Silver May 26, 2008 - 08:10 AM

 

By: Mark_OByrne

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4835.html

 

As knowledge of shortages in the silver coin and small bar market enters the mainstream there will be powerful and possibly unprecedented demand for silver eagles and all forms of silver in smaller denominations in the coming weeks.

 

The silver market remains a tiny finite market (all of the above ground refined silver in the world is only worth at today's prices roughly a miniscule $9 billion <500 million ounces X $18>) and if even a fraction of the world's increasingly skittish investment capital flows into the silver market prices will rise to multiples of the current price.

 

Gold Investments continue to believe that silver should surpass $25 in 2008, its non inflation adjusted high of $48.70 per ounce before 2012 and its inflation adjusted high (as many other commodities including oil already done) of some $130 per ounce in the next 5 to 8 years. These are conservative estimates.

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