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I've never been this patient before, 8 whole days with money burning a hole in my pocket... :rolleyes:

 

Well we're at £8.0435/t oz, so sub £8 is looking quite likely, would anyone care to offer where the floor might be, perhaps about £7/t oz? Any thoughts?

 

Thanks for the fast replies both of you. Hmmm...

 

The temptation is to sit on the cash for a wee bit longer I think. I have been averaging in and I have a good core position, so I can afford to miss the boat a little should it happen.

 

Wow £5.70 that's a nice 2006 price! :o

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I've never been this patient before, 8 whole days with money burning a hole in my pocket... :rolleyes:

 

Well we're at £8.0435/t oz, so sub £8 is looking quite likely, would anyone care to offer where the floor might be, perhaps about £7/t oz? Any thoughts?

Silver looks somewhat more vulnerable, at least in percentage terms. The September contract settled yesterday ay 13.275, but a test of early Spring’s lows near $12 appears all but inevitable over the near term. If this is correct, the retracement from these levels would amount to a tad less than 10 percent. Because we never like to chisel these forecasts in stone, here are bullish trigger numbers, first for September Silver: 14.425; and then for August Gold: 966.80. If either of those number were to be hit before the downside targets given above, all bearish bets would be off.

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1246943106.php

 

Rick is always a good read. I have a large bonus coming through in near 2 weeks... am hoping to buy at around $12 [now $13]. Then that might be it for a while as feel I will have a decent enough position by then. Will then save income in dollars and only buy further bullion if/when it scraps the bottom. Still waiting for the ratio to reverse. Come on Bernanke... buy some more treasuries!...... but not just yet.

 

bernanke1.jpg

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I've never been this patient before, 8 whole days with money burning a hole in my pocket... :rolleyes:

 

Well we're at £8.0435/t oz, so sub £8 is looking quite likely, would anyone care to offer where the floor might be, perhaps about £7/t oz? Any thoughts?

 

I’ve got my last units of Sterling for the year loaded in to GM and I think I will spend it today. Price is currently £8.01 - which is quite a long way below my average buying price for this year.

 

I don’t think we will see £7… but I am only guessing. £8ish is a good price and I am happy to pay it.

 

 

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I’ve got my last units of Sterling for the year loaded in to GM and I think I will spend it today. Price is currently £8.01 - which is quite a long way below my average buying price for this year.

 

I don’t think we will see £7… but I am only guessing. £8ish is a good price and I am happy to pay it.

I'm going to be patient a bit longer, but might average-in a bit today. We are hopefully close to the bottom for silver in GDP terms.

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Thanks for the replies. According to Mr Bollinger we should see a bounce around £7.80/t oz. I think I'm going to hold on until Friday.

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Looking at the EUR and GBP silver charts I notice that both are getting close to the 200-day moving average. Will this tend to provide some support I wonder?

 

Current prices:

 

USD 12.81

EUR 9.22

GBP 8.00

 

I'm still sticking to my plan of slowly averaging in over the summer.

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Looking at the EUR and GBP silver charts I notice that both are getting close to the 200-day moving average. Will this tend to provide some support I wonder?

 

Current prices:

 

USD 12.81

EUR 9.22

GBP 8.00

 

I'm still sticking to my plan of slowly averaging in over the summer.

 

Be on your toes tho...

 

Ted Butler - This May Be The Last Time

 

http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary.shtml

 

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FFS! - 12.60 !!!

 

I have to say I am a little surprised. Where's silver sammy when you need him????

:)

I think the little bugger's on holiday in Majorca! :lol:

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The USD price is still a little above its 200-day moving average. The EUR price has just cut slightly below.

 

A nice buying opportunity perhaps for a few weeks.

 

Prices at the mo':

 

USD 12.60

EUR 9.06

GBP 7.79

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Will be interesting to see how much the ratio can retrace before heading down again. Maybe to 74/75? Now 72.

 

gold_2_year_silver-2.png

Do you know of any mechanism or plausible argument why the ratio should drop significantly in the next, say 12 to 18 months.

 

Just that I don't know of a good reason to expect it. Presumably the global recession holds back demand for silver tending to keep the price down.

 

I suppose with China's stimulus and all the bailout attempts in the West a temporary recovery in some economies in the next 18 months might be possible.

 

Mainly it looks to me like demand should be weak and remain so for months.

 

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David Morgan. Be careful with Silver Wheaten which could be affected if base metals are caught up in a slump in commodity prices. Silver going lower though not to $9 before rallying of course.

 

Um, the cuddly Mr Morgan, the same Mr Morgan that initially predicted silver bottoming out at $14.50/oz during the start of last year's correction, then only to revise his targets downwards once the correction accelerated and legions of hopefuls had been misled. More amusing was his sitting on the fence once the actual bottom had been reached.

 

Still, a whole lot better than the likes of Jason Hommel with his infinite silver prices e.g. "$8,000/oz here we come" or Mr Turk's "+$30/oz by Q3 2008" or Ted Butler's usual mid-correction declarations of "there's never been a better time to buy!" or "this is the last chance you'll ever get before the concentrated silver shorts default."

 

Of course he could be right on this occasion but so could a pinhead be when you blindly shove it into the silver chart. Due diligence as always especially given silver's propensity to disappoint both on the up and downsides...

 

As they say, there's nothing more dangerous in the investment world than a silver bug. Ask Jim Sinclair if you don't believe me...

 

EDIT: Nearly forgot the Jim Puplava one when he proceeded to rant on about how he was gonna buy a tonne of physical bullion silver for every dollar the spot price went down by starting at $12.50/oz. Geeze, no wonder the guy had to wait four months for delivery, he must have taken on half the world's annual production by the time the price had finally bottomed. :lol:

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Do you know of any mechanism or plausible argument why the ratio should drop significantly in the next, say 12 to 18 months.

 

Just that I don't know of a good reason to expect it. Presumably the global recession holds back demand for silver tending to keep the price down.

 

I suppose with China's stimulus and all the bailout attempts in the West a temporary recovery in some economies in the next 18 months might be possible.

 

Mainly it looks to me like demand should be weak and remain so for months.

 

"There were two distinct developments in demand distribution during 2008: on the back of a global recession, the industrial demand declined by nearly 1%, but the investment demand in terms of coins and medals rose by more than 60% from 2007"

 

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Why-si...-19079-3-1.html

 

With India and China accounting for something like a 1/3 of the worlds population I don't see much/if any drop off in Industrial demand for silver.

 

There also seems to be a nice drop off in Government sales to go along with that

1999 2000 01 02 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

90.3 60.3 63.0 59.2 88.7 61.9 65.9 78.2 42.3 30.9 (in millions of ounces)

 

http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php#supply

 

With there also expected to be a drop off in mine production, there will be no weakness in the REAL price of silver IMO.

 

whoops_apocalypse... your speculation intelligence amuses me!

 

I await the fundamentals behind your speculation.

 

;)

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whoops_apocalypse... your speculation intelligence amuses me!

 

I await the fundamentals behind your speculation.

 

;)

 

Fundamentals are all well and good. I say that as someone who likes the longer term fundamentals of silver. Nevertheless, it is worth bearing in mind that the fundamentals of silver did not prevent the price from falling >70% within eight months last year.

 

You remember how it tanked all the way from $21.50/oz in March down to $8.60/oz by October? Don't recall any of the fundamentals suggesting that that would happen either at the time. Still, it's all idle speculation, whether you pay to hear it or visit forums such as this makes no differnece to the fact that no one can truly predict the future.

 

All the same, I sense better opportunities ahead to wade in, though just like all the pundits mentioned previously, I could be wrong of course...

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... You remember how it tanked all the way from $21.50/oz in March down to $8.60/oz by October? ...

 

You'd have to be a timing genius to get it so wrong (buying and selling, I mean). :)

 

Silver_USD.png

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Um, the cuddly Mr Morgan, the same Mr Morgan that initially predicted silver bottoming out at $14.50/oz during the start of last year's correction, then only to revise his targets downwards once the correction accelerated and legions of hopefuls had been misled. More amusing was his sitting on the fence once the actual bottom had been reached.

 

Still, a whole lot better than the likes of Jason Hommel with his infinite silver prices e.g. "$8,000/oz here we come" or Mr Turk's "+$30/oz by Q3 2008" or Ted Butler's usual mid-correction declarations of "there's never been a better time to buy!" or "this is the last chance you'll ever get before the concentrated silver shorts default."

 

Of course he could be right on this occasion but so could a pinhead be when you blindly shove it into the silver chart. Due diligence as always especially given silver's propensity to disappoint both on the up and downsides...

 

As they say, there's nothing more dangerous in the investment world than a silver bug. Ask Jim Sinclair if you don't believe me...

 

EDIT: Nearly forgot the Jim Puplava one when he proceeded to rant on about how he was gonna buy a tonne of physical bullion silver for every dollar the spot price went down by starting at $12.50/oz. Geeze, no wonder the guy had to wait four months for delivery, he must have taken on half the world's annual production by the time the price had finally bottomed. :lol:

:lol:

Yeah, have to say I prefer what Morgan says to Turk, Puplava et al. Morgan is sounding more and more sober and deflationary these days.. which is an improvement.

 

If I can buy silver at a good price on this dip I will hope to make some money on it. Not by selling for dollars but trading for gold on the next inflation scare waiting in the wings.

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Do you know of any mechanism or plausible argument why the ratio should drop significantly in the next, say 12 to 18 months.

Just that I don't know of a good reason to expect it. Presumably the global recession holds back demand for silver tending to keep the price down.

 

I suppose with China's stimulus and all the bailout attempts in the West a temporary recovery in some economies in the next 18 months might be possible.

 

Mainly it looks to me like demand should be weak and remain so for months.

bernanke1.jpg

 

I would not be surprised to see a continued pattern where the market alternates between inflation and deflation scares. I like to think of this as "con-flation" where the market will remain undecided between inflation and deflation for some time to come, and also where it will be "conned" from time to time. It would be more about market psychology here than fundamentals though fundamentals would have to play out in the more medium/long term [and in the short term when the market is in deflation mode].

 

An inflation scare could once again be easily ignited. Investors are still nervous about QE, stimulus and treasury buying by the Fed. Though the dominant force in the economy is deflation, the dominant ideology at work in the minds of investors is the "quanitity theory of money" as epitomized in the monetarism of Friedman. This is a powerful idea and it could take quite some time before it is finally discredited. In the interim, the conditions are fertile for further inflation scares, and indeed it will be in the interests of the monetary authorities to provoke them. My strategy will be to swap silver to gold on the inflation scare when the ratio is 50 and swap back to silver on the deflationary whiplash when the ratio gets to around 80.

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